My son did get a likely letter. It was nice as a way to reduce anxiety, I guess. But the letter came a couple of weeks after the ED deadline, so it couldn't serve as any kind of inducement to choose the school he applied to. The most I can say is that instead of only waiting a full six weeks to get a decision, my son got some encouragement two weeks after the ED deadline, and then had to wait for a decision. It was good to get the letter--but it would have been a lot nicer to get it a few weeks before the ED deadline.
I'm wondering now if I have been too confident (although it meant I slept better). But my assumption was always that if an athlete applying to a HA D3 was in the top quartile for grades and test scores, he would be accepted if he had a coach's tip (unless something weird happened). I know these schools turn down many kids with great grades and scores; but I assumed (maybe incorrectly) that the athletic preference would be decisive for those who are otherwise well-qualified.