Goosegg posted:Each of the first 10 rounds has a theoretical money amount assigned; assuming a club has used up its entire slot total on slot draftees, subsequent US draftees or FA can be signed for 100k without triggering some penalty to the signing team (roughly as penalties kick in at different percentages). If slot money is left over, it can be applied to give more than 100k.
For the most part, before a club uses a slot pick, it has a firm idea of the bonus demands of the player. Players with the most leverage AND skills generally command the biggest bonus. Thus a HS player with the best protectable skills will be offered a higher bonus then a college senior with the same skills. Clubs have learned to save slot money by drafting the top college seniors in late slot rounds and offering them 10 cents on the slot dollar. (Also remember this: if a slot draftee isn't signed, the club gets dinged for that slot amount and cannot wheel the money to other draftees. )
If a club wants to take a flyer on a HS kid but doesnt know for sure he can be signed (e.g., mo ey, school commitment), the club will draft him after slot rounds and use its slot savings to offer a greater then 100k bonus.
Back to the OP issue. IN GENERAL - AND EXCEPT FOR COLLLEGE SENIORS - bonus money and round do enter into the equation. it is NOT that a lower drafted/bonus player cant make it; its that the higher bonus/round gets more chances. (And, generally, you can see the difference between the skills of a high round and a low rounder.)
So, all things being equal, a low round college sr should expect to be retired before the low round HS kid. (Of course, one may have a college degree while the other will never play college ball and needs to spend at least 4 years of full time study to get one.)
I have known 38th round college sr picks rocket to AAA after 2 seasons- only to be cut after a few AAA outings; I know high slot picks to languish in low milb until their skills came together.
Lots of variables and no set of facts is the same in any case.
It all makes sense now. Thanks for the reply!