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Reply to "What's the benefits/risks with keeping a player back a school year?"

3and2Fastball posted:
2019Dad posted:
3and2Fastball posted:

A small sample and extremely anecdotal, but, the vast majority of kids from my son's "age group" in LL who are now Sophomores (my kid is a Freshman) are extremely mediocre players now.  They benefited from being bigger at ages 10-12 and seemingly bought into being told how good they were.  

Keep in mind we aren't in a Baseball hotbed and kids don't have to work hard to get spots on Varsity.  But being on the May through Summer side of the May 1st birthday cutoff definitely did not benefit most of the kids who in 6th Grade were competing against 5th graders.

Right. But it sounds like they benefited from the relative age effect when they were on the older side (say, a May birthday in little league) but now they are suffering from the relative age effect because they are on the younger side (i.e., their parents didn't hold them back, so they are currently 15 in March of sophomore year). In other words, they would be less mediocre as freshmen than they are as sophomores.

Perhaps.  They'd still be mediocre, but would have an extra year to make up for it.  Problem being that the work ethic might not be there.  They've gotten away with being physically bigger & stronger than their competition.   Would that continue if they were on the Freshman team?  To a degree, yes.   Which might not help them moving forwards.

Every athlete at some point or some level reaches that "light bulb" moment of realizing they need to work much much harder.  Once you are in high school, time is really slipping away when it comes to opportunities to advance.  Delaying that "light bulb" moment might not help.



But if you look at Nebase's hypothetical situation, you can see the difference... (Sorry don't know how to quote older posts)

From Nebase

Player 1: Late August/September birthday. Not held back 

Fresh 14 yo: 5'6 140 lbs,  78 mph 

Soph 15 yo: 5'8 150 lbs,  82 mph

Junior: 16 yo: 5'11 165 lbs,  88 mph 

Senior: 17 yo: 6'0 17 170lbs,  ???


Player 2: Same Birthday. Same player, just held back 

Fresh 15 yo: 5'8 150 lbs 82 mph 

Soph 16 yo: 5'11 160 lbs 88 mph 

Junior 17 yo: 6'1 170 lbs 91 mph

Senior 18 yo: 6'2 180 lbs 93 mph


Player 1 is a solid player but D1 schools didn't come running. He missed the P5 train and most likely a good amount of mid majors. His options would probably be lower D1/D2/D3/Juco. Will always be the youngest in his grade, kids from the grade below could even be older. He will be 16 when he starts his senior year of hs and 17 when he heads off to college unable to sign any paperwork if he ever gets sick or injured. 

Player 2 is a top player in his state. Committed to a P5/quality mid major in between his sophomore/junior year. Most likely a draft prospect of some sort. Would have been invited to Area Code, ECP, and will play with one of the better summer teams (potentially for less $). Will be the first in his class to drive, first to turn 21, etc.

I'm not pro redshirt, nor do I have many problems with it. But we all know it's for sport specific purposes 95% of the time. Compare player 1 to 2 and tell me it can't make a big difference?