You just don't know. You can look at every opportunity and try to project where you fit in. You can have a coach tell you "we see you as a starter day one" "we believe you can compete for playing time day one" etc etc. But the fact is you just don't know. You could go to a D1 and play right away. You could choose a D2 and sit. The only thing you can do is go in and compete. You can be the 2nd best catcher in your entire conference and sit behind the best catcher in your conference. And that can be at the least competitive program in that conference.
I have seen so many D1 transfers from power 5 conferences transfer for playing time to D2 programs only to find out that nothing has changed. You have to compete and be the best option. And remember this nothing stays the same. What projects in year one you can throw out the window in year two. Transfers in and transfers out. New class every year. Coaches come and go. Picking a school based on your projection of playing time can be very tricky. It's always been my opinion that a player should aspire to play at the highest level he can for the best program he can. And then go in and compete.
Coaches will say whatever they feel they need to say to get you on campus. After that all bet's are off. Competition and production will win out. If your mindset is I am going to go to the school where I think the competition will be the weakest to ensure my ability to see the field then I wouldn't want you in my program. What happens when you choose that weaker program for playing time and you don't earn a starting role right away? What's the players mindset then?
Which school do you like the most? Which school likes you the most? Are you ready to compete for playing time? Are you a team player? JMO