Mistakes lead to decommits. Mistakes lead to transferring. If you live in a large state just by numbers alone you’re exposed to reality even if it’s not a baseball hotbed. If you live in a small state you may walk through the process blindfolded and uninformed.
I live part time in a small state. To be a D1 prospect typically means going mid major. I was at a high school game last year. Some kids were talking about a previous state Gatorade POY as a god. Every team in my son’s large state, large classification conference had at least one better player. The kid washed out freshman year in the MVC and transferred.
Another dad was talking up his soph son. The dad didn’t know I had played college summer ball with his ex pro brother. My former teammate/friend asked to to watch the kid play and provide him a second opinion.
The kid was a quality student. He was fast and athletic with great baseball instincts. But he was 5’8” 145. Two of his three hits were beating out grounders in the hole. His other hit was a soft flair. In BP he wasn’t driving every pitch. I saw a potential NESCAC player.
The dad told me the kid hopes to play at LSU or ASU. I played along. I asked what communication they’ve had so far. The dad said none since it’s before the deadline. I asked what summer team the kid played. It was an AAU team that didn’t travel outside New England.
The kid was 5’10” 150 senior year. 155 on his college roster. The kid ended up walking on at a D1 in one of the lowest rated D1 conferences. His high school seems to have an academic Jesuit pipeline to the college. The kid can fly. I can see giving him a year to see how it goes due to his speed. But senior year of high school he was still beating out grounders and hitting flairs to the outfield. His team didn’t play this weekend. Next weekend they play a P5 bottom feeder. It will be interesting to see if he plays and how he does. I expect to see PR next to his name in the box score if he plays.