Hello! I'm looking for some perspective on what I can expect from off-season workouts in terms of pitching velocity. My 2022 (age 15.5) ended last season on a good note, touching 81 and sitting 80 in his last two outings. What can I expect when he starts showcasing next month? He's doing a 4x/week velocity program but has just started throwing lightly. He showcases in the middle of next month. Will he gain because of rest and lifting? Will be stay the same because he hasn't thrown much yet this year? Will he lose a little for the same reason? What's your experience with off-season training and winter velocity?
My guy was in the same place and yes, he lost a little the first month or so after winter resting. Just takes time for the arm to get used to daily throwing, loosen up, etc. But by the time the showcases come around he should be back to the level where he left off, maybe a shade stronger or lower depending on how his body reacts. The benefits show up in a few more months. Natural progression would be 3-5mph improvement.