Hello! I'm looking for some perspective on what I can expect from off-season workouts in terms of pitching velocity. My 2022 (age 15.5) ended last season on a good note, touching 81 and sitting 80 in his last two outings. What can I expect when he starts showcasing next month? He's doing a 4x/week velocity program but has just started throwing lightly. He showcases in the middle of next month. Will he gain because of rest and lifting? Will be stay the same because he hasn't thrown much yet this year? Will he lose a little for the same reason? What's your experience with off-season training and winter velocity?
Between natural growth progression and the velocity program, you can certainly expect to see increases but it really varies by individual. There is no formula. There can also be spurts and stalls. And, yes, certainly during ramp up, you can not only expect regression but must (in effect) force it - vitally important that the ramp up is properly gradual, not rushed.
In fact, this is one of the challenges to fitting in a rest period, particularly from this age on as he may be dealing with fall/winter showcase opportunities and then, should he play at the next level, summer ball directly into fall college workouts with only a short Christmas break as possible rest time.
Ideally, you would make sure he has enough time to fully ramp up before attending any showcase where he will feel pressured to register high on the gun and throw max effort.