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Body weight and exit velocity correlation
For a few years now, as my 2025 grad son has been progressing through baseball, I've always struggled to understand where he should be with regards to exit and throwing velocity benchmarks. There are charts and things online that will show you what "good" and "elite" velocities are for different ages, but that's really hard to judge since all kids develop and hit puberty at a different age. My son happens to be a late bloomer who has only now (at age 15) really started to see some velocity...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Weight to exit velocity ratios don’t matter. What matters is your son’s exit velocity versus the recruits he’s competing against at whatever division level. Even at the high school and travel level it starts being about optimizing ability versus the players he’s competing against. My son was the last cut from varsity freshman year. He had just had a growth burst from 5’4” to 5’11”. But he hadn’t put on weight and muscle yet. He weighed 135. I asked him why he thought he didn’t make varsity.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
There is no correlation of body weight and exit velo, the factor here (apart other things like technique) is maximum strength, it just happens to be that strength correlates very well with muscle mass, i. E. More muscle mass means you are generally stronger. But there is no direct effect of body mass affecting exit velo, it is an indirect effect over strength. That being said it is very rare that someone under 170 pounds has the strength to generate pro level in game exit velo (108+ mph) and...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
No science here, just opinion. It seems to me there are kids, not relative to size that just have better transfer of energy. Obviously bat speed matters, but natural inertial transfer seems like a real thing.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Randy Sullivan of the Florida Baseball Armory did a study that showed the correlation to weight and pitching velo stopped at 175 lbs. I'm confident that doesn't transfer over to exit velo
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Posts like the OP make my head want to explode. Metrics, metrics, metrics! After the fact many will learn that this is not the thing to focus on.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
NJ: can he hit the "curve"? Can he see the "red" seams on the ball? Does he understand "visualization"? What is role as a hitter"? TO SEE THE BALL!!! Bob
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Except... You would have never even been there to scout him but for his metrics.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
You’re welcome. However, based on the overall theme of this thread it doesn’t appear that my comments carried much weight. When all people hear is the same message (metrics) they believe it after a while. Whether it’s a good message or not. But you would think at some point people would look at who is pushing that message. It’s not college baseball coaches. I can promise you that. The ones pushing metrics are the ones that stand to benefit. PG, PBR, V Tool, etc. are the ones pushing metrics.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I think body mass has a valid correlation to exit velocity, lean body mass is the ideal. You can always point to the exceptional who lie outside this range, but those are the elite examples (at any level vs peers), the outside of the normal standard deviation. When considering young cohorts, size matters first. But this is also why those who rely on their size often get passed up later on, to excel you need to get bigger, stronger and improve mechanically. That means work in the weight room,...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Let me clarify a couple of things in my post. First, I meant to suggest that 1 pound of body mass to .5 MPH exit velocity is a sort of benchmark or average. The range is going to be something like 1 pound to anywhere from .4 to .6 MPH. That accounts for a 150 pound kid at 89 mph, which is a .59 ratio. But from the data I looked at, that is a pretty rare combination of bodyweight and exit velocity for high school players. Second, I agree that strength is the key component, not necessarily...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Wow. Those are some impressive numbers. Good luck to your son in the offseason and next year! I definitely don't mean to oversimplify things. Hitting is definitely a complex skill. My son works hard at it in a great facility with great coaches where they work on every aspect of hitting. Hopefully, he'll continue to get better and better at all aspects of hitting. I don't think it's an overstatement though to say that for most hitters that if you take the same skills and approach and add more...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
In reply, like I mentioned earlier, my son works really hard at his hitting, and on all of the things you mention and more. He certainly isn't preoccupied by his exit velocity. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't be trying to improve exit velocity in addition to all of the other elements of hitting. And understanding that gaining mass and how much every pound of gain means to gaining exit velocity is a good thing to know. What I also know is that if he's at the plate and sees the spin and...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I agree that for many if not most HS players gaining weight is a good goal, young top prospects are getting bigger and stronger earlier and it is not unusual that a drafted HS player already is like 190+ while 30 years ago they were drafted at 160-170 and then gained weight later in their minor league career so if you are 150 in your junior year you are playing catch up. For example this years top 2 draft picks holliday and jones are both listed at 180 (probably at least 190 now), it is just...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
A weight to EV calculation is a good motivator (if you get bigger and stronger you will hit it further) but it also oversimplifies things. Being strong is important but so is being quick, being able to find barrels, wrist strength…etc. Even bat speed is not just a function of weight. There is also a huge difference between EV off a tee or in BP vs. EV in a game. Having said all that, one of PTWoodson’s focuses in the off season is to get back up to “fighting weight” of 240. He dropped down...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Well... height is actually a metric also. So I got this: You wouldn't have been there at all except for his height and fb metrics. But all teasing aside, there is likely no other sport that relies more on stats, metrics, projection than baseball. So i kinda understand the desire of knowing ones EV and possible future EV. To use my 2023 as example, he was an all state jr but 5ft 9 165lbs. im actually sure that if he had an EV of 100+ off tee, he d be going to a D1 program. But I know that...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Fast twitch vs slow twitch muscle fibers. It's usually agreed upon that most people are born with equal amounts, but this isn't true for all cases. Combine that with the skill of being able to consistently find "perfect, perfect", then you have the rare 150lb guy with 90mph EV off a tee.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
"So, if you are 150 pounds, you could expect to have an exit velocity (tee or soft toss) of around 75 MPH." I'm kinda doubting the validity of this. My 2023 measured 87mph and 89mph off tee at events when he was 150-155lbs. He's 165 now but we stopped measuring (or caring) because once you are above average bat speed, it really doesn't matter for recruiting.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Check that. Unless you have eye popping EV like ptwoodson. In which case you're getting drafted.
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He is 6’-7” tall with a frame that will allow a lot of weight gain. He would be looked at if he threw 85 just based on projection. So I beg to differ. What else ya got?
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NJ Dad; A hitter needs to have "carry" on the ball. Has your son used the "high tee" drill? This develops "back spin". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nstgnb1tv9k Maybe the single most important drill for any hitter. Bob
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Not sure if you meant it, but this is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Let's use your example of a basketball player. In your example, let's say there is a kid who can't dunk. Let's say he can touch the rim, but he can't dunk. So, what does he do? Likely, he starts plyometric program of jump training. And he starts squatting. Maybe he needs to add 8 inches to his vertical to dunk. If I could say to that kid that every pound of body weight was equal to one inch of vertical, I...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
ALL sports use stats, metrics, and projections. But if you want to take it to the absurd consider this. If a basketball player can execute a dunk, does it matter what velocity the ball has when it goes thru the hoop? If a kid makes a lot of 3 point shots, does it matter how much the ball rotates after he releases it? The answer to both those questions is a resounding NO. No it doesn’t. What matters are the results. More specifically what matters are the results in game competition.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I think my original post on this thread has been misinterpreted a bit. I never suggested that metrics are more important than the basics. Knowing how to play baseball, and all of the skills necessary to be successful are obviously the most important thing. But having some power (for which exit velocity is a measurement) is a key "skill" of being a successful HS, college, and pro player. Lack of power will likely stop you from progressing at some point. Especially for my son, who only has...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I’m going to take middle ground here, as I’m a data geek. However, I’m not sold on all the metrics at the lower levels or there importance over the basics. As a HS senior my son hit a 450’+ bomb at a PG tournament and got invited to several national HR/power hitting events. He had elite bat speed, a serviceable right-hand stroke and was 6’ 4” 220 lbs at the time. Why did he become a PO as college freshman? Because he doesn’t have the contrast differential recognition to pick up spin at the...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
The dad of one of my son’s travel teammates let no dollar go unspent having his kid train to excel in showcases. In high school the kid put up big numbers against weaker pitching. In travel my son’s nickname for the kid was LOB (didn’t like him). My son used to joke second base should be renamed Gilligan’s Island. The kid kept stranding him there. The kid was 6’4” 215 and ripped. In showcases he starred. A prominent SEC coach of a ranked team claimed the kid could become his greatest recruit...
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I do think metrics can play a part in overall development. As such, I don't think they should be discarded altogether. The 60 might serve as a good example. Does the 60 measure pure speed/acceleration? It does, but some some kids are able to post better numbers because they head over to their track coach and get trained up on sprinting mechanics that don't necessarily translate into stealing 2nd. Conversely, if you are not showing improvement in your own 60 as your develop, you may want to...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
In every basketball games there are endless opportunities to evaluate a player as long as they are in the game. And even if their shot is off one night, you can still see their shooting form, their shot selection, how they play on and off the ball defense, how they move without the ball, their hustle and athleticism, their leadership… In football, a player might get offered based on their body and athleticism alone. You can afford to do that when you have 160 full rides to give away. In...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I appreciate your opinion, and I understand that metrics can be a hot topic on this site. However, I don't think either my son or I are obsessed with metrics. He is in a great hitting training facility all of the time, and exit velocity is never a focus. I do think that he is focused on his improvement, and I'm here to assist in that. To get improvement at any level, getting "bigger, stronger, faster" is part of the program. So is fielding practice, throwing, hitting, playing in games, etc.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Awesome post Bob. Unfortunately most people won’t get the point b/c you are so subtle in making it. For those that don’t know, Bob is the founder of the Area Code games. He is one of the most experienced and most knowledgeable posters on this site. What Bob is saying, without saying it, is that good metrics don’t necessarily make a good player. Same thing I have been saying. But so many on the HSBBW don’t understand this right now. But eventually you will. Probably when it’s too late to do...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
I understand your point. And with all due respect, IMO your focus is not on the right things. At least that’s what your OP led me to believe. I see a lot of young players (and their parents) obsessed with metrics. And I think it’s a mistake to do that. That’s my point. You can take it or leave it. Matters not to me. I recognize that you didn’t ask for my opinion. And hey, maybe I’m wrong about where your focus is. I just reacted to what I read.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Adbono appreciate your kind words. The interest in metrics is not new. However the great pro scouts always Studied the non verbal behavior of the player. When you discuss with your College Coaches conduct an interview What 5 areas do they evaluate? Bob
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
NJ has your son ever played a game of "pepper" with his mates. It teaches "bat control" throwing and fielding. Have you watched the Japan HS player's train? Bob
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First, let me say that I do appreciate what you are saying, although I'm not sure if it is directed at me. To be honest, I'm not sure where we all disagree, although there seems to be some disagreement. As I've mentioned multiple times, I agree that skill development is the most important thing, and that metrics shouldn't be a preoccupation of young baseball players. I agree with you that good metrics definitely don't necessarily make a good player. Maybe where we disagree is that I believe...
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Btw I think in pro ball of course there are a lot of "nerds" but hit tool and contact gets valued a little more again. For some time it clearly was power over hit but some of the smarter teams are trying to lower their K rate while keeping the power. You see that among the social media discussions of the "nerd coaches" like for example the driveline hitting guys too, 5 years ago guys like ochart all day talked like more attack angle, higher batspeed, higher launch angle, focus on pull side...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
@JucoDad said, “I’m not sold on all the metrics at the lower levels or their importance over the basics.” This perfectly summarizes my point. The basics of learning how to play the game have taken a backseat to chasing numbers. Even at middle school and HS levels. Which is ridiculous. At that age kids should be learning. Everyone wants to be declared the winner before they run the race. Scouting services and travel ball orgs have figured this out and have developed business models that takes...
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If metrics are a big deal to you metrics for his size aren’t the issue. The issue is metrics against the players he’s competing against in the recruiting process.
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Btw right now pro baseball player development is very bad at improving contact. There are some theories that are being tried out but overall the success hasn't been good. What some teams have tried is recruiting small ball players and making them play "big ball" by working on batspeed, attack angle and strength, so basically take hitters and try to improve their power. The guardians have tried that a lot in the last years, sucess of it was only moderate though (every once in a while you have...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
PT; Sam told me the story of a young player who tried out for the Boston Celtics. He a "jumper" great jumping ability. I ask Sam what happened. The player he was guarding did a "head fake" and the jumper stuck to the ceiling of the Boston Garden. Great "metrics" . During our Area Code games, a Cuban player crossed the border and ask for a special tryout for the scouts. I set up a former MLB pitcher to throw and his "bat speed" was exceptional. Actually when he swung he was like a spinning...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
@NJ2025Dad , my comments are not solely directed at you. But if the shoe fits….. My perspective is a little different than a lot of HSBBW members and I occasionally say things that are contrary to popular opinion. And that’s why I say them. In hopes that someone hears it. My baseball journey with my sons is over but I’m still very involved in the game. I attend showcase events regularly looking for players to recruit. When I’m there I always network with coaches. And I’m telling you what we...
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Summing up this thread is people disagreeing about something they agree about..... Also @Dominik85 , I got to watch Jackson play at the Shorebirds a couple months ago. Friend of mine has season tickets at ground level, and 180lbs is generous to say the least. It was refreshing to see a kid look like a kid.
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NJ2025Dad - never gave the vibe he was obsessed with metrics over baseball ability. I have no doubt his son is a good player or he would not be a member here. I have no doubt that albono knows what he is talking about and is in baseball for the right reasons. I understood everyone’s point the first time they posted and certainly it was made clear by the second time. Beating someone into submission or making them cry uncle or rubbing their nose in something.... Not sure we act that way if we...
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
If that quote was directed at you it would have included a quote of your last comment. And it didn’t. So it wasn’t directed at you. It’s a general comment about the obsession with metrics that is so prevalent among young baseball players and their parents.
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
Asking a slightly different question now but this is related. Is there any correlation between a player that has very good bat speed and how hard they throw? For example would a player that has good bat speed be more likely to throw harder as well? I've heard of a relationship between throwing velocity and that most likely the harder throwing player possesses more fast twitch muscle than the average thrower. Is this also the case with the kid that has above average bat speed as well?
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Replying with quotes that indicate I've somehow been fooled about something is not really productive conversation. In any case, I'll move on and hope that maybe someone gets something out of this thread.
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“It’s easier to fool a person than it is to convince a person that they have been fooled” - Mark Twain
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Re: Body weight and exit velocity correlation
"If you want to stand out be a really good player in games. Hustle, run hard, take the extra base, be a leader, run the bases well, know where to throw the ball, hit your cutoff man, understand situational hitting, etc. Play good fundamental baseball and play hard. If you do this at the HS level you will stand out." That general message is a great one. It's certainly one that I believe in. I just want to add one more thought to this thread, so that I clarify what this discussion started as.