2016 early draft top prospects

TPM posted:
joemktg posted:
TPM posted:

I am so excited for Kevin O'Sullivan and the Gators to get the #1 pick.

So you think Buddy Reed is that strong of a prospect? 

Where did u get that from? I was replying about AJ Puk.

Didn't know where you coming from, as I've heard Reed climbing up while Puk dropping. But it sounds like you're hearing 1.1 is assured from your internal sources. 

joemktg posted:
TPM posted:
joemktg posted:
TPM posted:

I am so excited for Kevin O'Sullivan and the Gators to get the #1 pick.

So you think Buddy Reed is that strong of a prospect? 

Where did u get that from? I was replying about AJ Puk.

Didn't know where you coming from, as I've heard Reed climbing up while Puk dropping. But it sounds like you're hearing 1.1 is assured from your internal sources. 

I have no internal sources, I was indicating how happy I would be for one of my fav college pitchers, a gator, as well as one of my favorite people to see a pitcher picked first.

Once again, my reply was in response to Redbird's post.

 

Dominik85 posted:

Some picks I don't understand. For example Alex bregman by the Astros. He is a good player with very good college stats but the scouting reports basically read average tools across the board (average defense, average power, average arm, average speed, might not stick at short...). I also read he is gritty and has the intangibles plus an advanced approach at the plate ( good eye, can take a walk) and that is all great but don't you want outstanding tools ( like Kris Bryant) at number 1 overall? Rogers probably has much better tools and he went third. Was Bergman a money saving move because the had another top10 pick?

Or was he a "moneyball" pick were an advanced college hitter that can take a walk is taken over a more toolsy player because he has less bust potential and arrives quicker?

 

 

 

Looks like Alex is starting to really turn it on!

I'm reading now a lot about moniak being first Overall. I have not really seen him Play but many scouting reports don't read that exciting for a HS Player, especially doubting his power and future power potential for an OF.

however I have also read a Jacoby ellsbury comparision which would of course be an excellent outcome.

still his Report reads more like a 6-12 pick than a 1/1 pick but of course a lot can happen in the developement of a Player.

with the risk that HS Players bring I still probably would pick a college bat unless that HS Player is a really big Thing. his HS stats also don't look that exciting, he has of course time to grow into his power and with BBCOR hitting HRs is not easy anymore but still the top HS Players hit Close to 10 HRs a season.

moniak will get stronger but he will also Switch to Wood, not sure if he can ever grow into ellsbury Kind of power.

might be a longshot, but i'm hoping groome goes 1-1...he's so young that he is just now tapping into his potential...if he was a 19 yr old with the same stats, size, etc., then that would be a different story...but being 17 and performing the way he does is huge.

As expected, things are becoming a bit more dynamic. Reason: there is uncertainty at the top of the draft boards (or soon-to-be-finalized draft boards). Mickey Moniak is a superb player as is Blake Rutherford. Are they 1-1 picks? I don't know, you don't know, no one knows, which leads to the question "So what's going on right now?"

Teams are trying to attach dollar figures to each pick, attempting to shave dollars from the higher potential picks so as to increase their budget at the lower levels. So since there isn't a clear 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, etc., war rooms are discussing value, i.e., if we can get player X for 25% less than a slightly higher ranked player, then player X moves ahead. And that's what's happening right now with the players in the top 10(!). As a result, you may see a so-called dark horse move up and get selected.

Delvin Perez: BA reported PEDs. Lord knows what's behind this. It could be conscious, duplicitous behavior by the player, or it could something as benign as a sinus medication not found in the US. I'm withholding judgement until more is known. Either way, he'll still receive a ticket off the island: too much talent.

Groome decommitted from Vandy and committed to Chipola CC, clearly as a statement to prospective clubs. Maybe it works, or maybe it completely backfires.

Joe,   Your thoughts on why Groome would decommit ?  He could always go to Chipola  the day before class starts.  I can see that if he does not get the money he wants he could do one year instead of three.  I think that's a terrible idea.  I would guess his asking price verses the offer could not be too far apart. 

Going to Chipola for a season might not help him in the draft at.  Too much downside , he should take his money and move on.

bacdorslider posted:

Joe,   Your thoughts on why Groome would decommit ?  He could always go to Chipola  the day before class starts.  I can see that if he does not get the money he wants he could do one year instead of three.  I think that's a terrible idea.  I would guess his asking price verses the offer could not be too far apart. 

Going to Chipola for a season might not help him in the draft at.  Too much downside , he should take his money and move on.

I think this play could work in a 1:1 situation, but not in a 1:many situation. By telegraphing this before the draft, his adviser risks turning off clubs, and in a year where there isn't a clear #1, it's a very risky move. The adviser is going for it all, and the downside is that his client will drop down if not completely off the board. The risk/reward equation doesn't pan out.

I don't know this kid at all.  Mine is purely speculation.  Assuming the kid has the grades to get into and make it at Vandy, I cannot understand this move.  I'm sure the kid is getting a full ride at Vandy with their ability to give out money above the 11.7 from endowments.  The kid obviously has the talent to go in the first few picks.  If he doesn't get the money or slot he wants, go to Vandy.  It's not like those guys at Vandy don't have a great track record of developing pitchers and getting them into pro ball.  To each his own, but I would never advise my son to give up a chance for a great education at a great university.  There just isn't enough difference in the money at 1/1 and 1/3 or 1/5 for me to walk away from the Vandy experience.  I know the kid from Stanford did exactly this a few years ago, but I think history tells us if you aren't 1/1 pick, the odds of you being it the next year or 3 years is pretty slim.  Chipola is a great program, but it aint Vandy.  My advice to my son would be make up your mind if you are ready for pro ball or not.  With this kid's talent, barring injury, the money will take care of itself.  I see this as a fundamental issue of do you want to start your pro career now or do you want the college experience.

With leaving high school and returning and now decommitting sounds like he would have never made it to Vandy in the first place. 

Maybe it wasnt his choice to make.

If Perez is drafted early it just goes to show  how little MLB cares about PEDS, and I am sure it wasnt some nasal spray.  Not disclosing what it was tells you a lot.

For those who disagreed with Jeff Passan exposing a troubled youth, I think he did a pretty good job at telling us like it is.  

A nice D-1 program can be used as leverage, but if everyone knows that you might not be seriously planning on a 3 year commitment it's not the same. But by showing that your willing to attend JUCO 1 year until your stock is on the rise again, teams that really like him have to decide do we pay him 4 million now? Or 6 million next year? 

Teams that have no interest in him because of character issues, might get on board next year if all goes well.

There was an interview with Groome where he said he didn't really like school.  At some point he maybe thought he might attend Vandy, but that has not crossed his mind in the last 12 months, if not longer.  Not sure who his "adviser" is but this is certainly an attempt to show that he might pass on the current draft is the money is not "enough" - have not seen what folks are saying his number is.  I understand someone knowing their "value", but once you get seven figures - maybe starting with a "2" or a "3", not sure I understand holding out unless you REALLY think you can show more during the next 12 months.  Actually, I think his offer will start with a "4" or a "5" and ought to be plenty to live on - maybe just not enough to satisfy the "adviser"'s ego.  Besides, he owes his parents for the year at IMG.

Slot value for 1/1 is $9 million dropping to $7.7 for 1/2 and $6.5 for 1/3 - and then just falls like a rock to $1.6 for the 41st pick in round #1.  My question - based on who you believe will be picked 1/1, what do you think the bonus amount will be or should be?  Given the uncertainly - JOEKKTG had some excellent comments - it would seem that the 1/1 pick might not even get to $7.7 - maybe top three will all get between $5 and $6 million.

The way the "slots and bonus pool" for the draft is constructed,  there is a big incentive for a club to select a player who is not necessarily the best or highest ceiling, but the one that will sign and save a couple million for getting better picks later. 

Go44dad posted:

The way the "slots and bonus pool" for the draft is constructed,  there is a big incentive for a club to select a player who is not necessarily the best or highest ceiling, but the one that will sign and save a couple million for getting better picks later. 

But isn't this the last year the draft will be done this way?  I mean it's possible nothing will change after negotiations but I wonder if a team will do something crazy to point out a flaw or loophole in the current draft system.

From what I know and have gathered in my opinion the young man should take anything over 3 million.  Of course it's nice to be 1/1 but when you factor in all the variables.  I agree with GO44DAD , teams are not going to pay 6 million just because they can.... not in this draft.... Groome is a great talent, but he is young for his class .... Pint, Anderson, and Manning could / would / should end up a better player.....

His advisers advice is terrible.... taking a kid that can get 3 to 4 million and start his career ... I had two sons go JUCO... I have been to Chipola many many times.... taking this route to 'maybe' get more next year is ludicrous.. too much can happen... trouble, injuries  not knocking Chipola, but if you did get injuried do you want to be at Vanderbilt or with a club.... or out in the sticks at Chipola?   

he needs a new adviser

bacdorslider posted:

From what I know and have gathered in my opinion the young man should take anything over 3 million.  Of course it's nice to be 1/1 but when you factor in all the variables.  I agree with GO44DAD , teams are not going to pay 6 million just because they can.... not in this draft.... Groome is a great talent, but he is young for his class .... Pint, Anderson, and Manning could / would / should end up a better player.....

His advisers advice is terrible.... taking a kid that can get 3 to 4 million and start his career ... I had two sons go JUCO... I have been to Chipola many many times.... taking this route to 'maybe' get more next year is ludicrous.. too much can happen... trouble, injuries  not knocking Chipola, but if you did get injuried do you want to be at Vanderbilt or with a club.... or out in the sticks at Chipola?   

he needs a new adviser

Before the draft you have to disclose most everything especially if someone os going to pay you a lot of money.  Probably found out he would never make it to Vandy, now he just brought his negotiating power down.

If you want to play pro ball sign, if not do better in school to increase your options.

This is one of the hardest drafts ever to predict.  There is so much going on behind the scenes that will affect this draft.  Stories will be flying and bargain hunting will play a part.  Clubs are going to try getting two or three top guys and spread out their bonus money.  

I would say that about 20 or so are sure first Rd picks in some order.  Some that are mentioned as sure first Rd picks in the many mock drafts will not be going in the first Rd.

I (we) never publicize everything we know.  We don't talk about makeup, Signability, or injury unless the injury is well documented.  

Without any issues I think there would be a clear cut #1 this year.  That said, there isn't a clear cut #1.

I'm kind of pulling for those that have been to PG, but that is just about all of them.  I would love to see Puk go first, he pretty much grew up in our building in Cedar Rapids.  We are very close to the family.  Iowa has never had a player go first overall.  It would be a pleasant surprise if that happened.

PGStaff posted:

This is one of the hardest drafts ever to predict.  There is so much going on behind the scenes that will affect this draft.  Stories will be flying and bargain hunting will play a part.  Clubs are going to try getting two or three top guys and spread out their bonus money.  

 

And it's happening right now...like...right now!

younggun posted:

I don't know this kid at all.  Mine is purely speculation.  Assuming the kid has the grades to get into and make it at Vandy, I cannot understand this move.  I'm sure the kid is getting a full ride at Vandy with their ability to give out money above the 11.7 from endowments.  The kid obviously has the talent to go in the first few picks.  If he doesn't get the money or slot he wants, go to Vandy.  It's not like those guys at Vandy don't have a great track record of developing pitchers and getting them into pro ball.  To each his own, but I would never advise my son to give up a chance for a great education at a great university.  There just isn't enough difference in the money at 1/1 and 1/3 or 1/5 for me to walk away from the Vandy experience.  I know the kid from Stanford did exactly this a few years ago, but I think history tells us if you aren't 1/1 pick, the odds of you being it the next year or 3 years is pretty slim.  Chipola is a great program, but it aint Vandy.  My advice to my son would be make up your mind if you are ready for pro ball or not.  With this kid's talent, barring injury, the money will take care of itself.  I see this as a fundamental issue of do you want to start your pro career now or do you want the college experience.

It could simply be an early negotiating tactic.  Most clubs won't believe that a kid in the top 10 would forego signing to attend college and put the draft off three more years.  By shifting to CC, he basically says if he doesn't get the money he wants, he'll see you again next year.

It CAN provide leverage to a top prospect in this scenario, but could be a huge risk as Joemktg pointed out, if there isn't clarity among the top 5-10 on the board.

I will say the the risk/reward actually moves to the players favor IMHO in this case as he is basically saying he will consider the draft on a year to year basis.  Downside risk is injury or a bad year in the CC ranks hurting draft stock next year.  Upside is potential negotiating leverage and that 2017 draft seems to be stronger top end in position players vs this year draft which is clearly heavier top end on arms.

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