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Since many here work in college ball, HS ball and Showcases I wonder what is your take on the 2016 top prospects for the draft so far. of course during next season things can Change but I read at many places that the draft is supposed to be weak at the top without obvious star prospects. I read that it is especially lacking polished hitting prospects in college and pitchers likely will go first albeit there aren't really many super prospects out there too.

many like HS pitcher groome. he has great stuff and while most Teams don't like to draft HS pitchers at number 1 Overall he might be the best choice given the lack of alternatives.

there are also college pitchers AJ puk and alec Hansen. both throw hard but had relatively mediocre college stats and command issues (high walk rates). still they are good prospects but not really what you want in a top 3 pick, if you draft a raw hard thrower you can just as well draft a HS pitcher.

who do you think will go first?

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CaCO3Girl posted:

I was surprised to see the amount of Catchers on the super high end of the PG top prospects list.  Do MLB teams like catchers to mature in College first or does a HS catcher have a decent shot of making the first round?

Those players whom you're referencing are very good hitters that happen to play the position of Catcher. I've come across the stat that 45-50% of pro catchers started out as a IFs or OFs.

CaCO3Girl posted:

I was surprised to see the amount of Catchers on the super high end of the PG top prospects list.  Do MLB teams like catchers to mature in College first or does a HS catcher have a decent shot of making the first round?

Super High is relative, mlb.com only has one catcher among the top 50 draft prospects http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/?list=draft and he is a college player. If a high school player gets drafted high it is only natural that he either is a pitcher or a very good hitter who can also play a premium position (catcher, short, centerfield). You need to hit and you also need to project for a premium position, first base/leftfield only types have a hard time getting drafted high even if they can hit well unless they have unreal power ( hitting not just home runs but upper deck type monster shots).

CaCO3Girl posted:

I was surprised to see the amount of Catchers on the super high end of the PG top prospects list.  Do MLB teams like catchers to mature in College first or does a HS catcher have a decent shot of making the first round?

It's not important to put much thought into what position a kid plays (position players). Most of them will change positions at the next level (college or pro). Those who move on can hit and are athletic enough to play any position. The exception are a handful of big time mashers.

Buster Posey was FSU's starting shortstop before moving to catcher. He volunteered for the move. It was a combination of the previous catcher leaving and an all SEC shortstop transferring in.

RJM posted:
CaCO3Girl posted:

I was surprised to see the amount of Catchers on the super high end of the PG top prospects list.  Do MLB teams like catchers to mature in College first or does a HS catcher have a decent shot of making the first round?

It's not important to put much thought into what position a kid plays (position players). Most of them will change positions at the next level (college or pro). Those who move on can hit and are athletic enough to play any position. The exception are a handful of big time mashers.

Buster Posey was FSU's starting shortstop before moving to catcher. He volunteered for the move. It was a combination of the previous catcher leaving and an all SEC shortstop transferring in.

I'm not knocking anyone....BUT.....I read a report awhile back on CNN that said catchers in MLB are lacking in one key area...CATCHING!  If people rarely recruit catchers to BE catchers this could explain a lot. 

regarding catchers that learned to catch in the minors:

that happens but it is probably much more common that a HS catcher gets moved to another Position. yes to Play in MLB you Need to hit but the requirements to catch in the big leagues are very high and most fringy catching prospects that can hit get moved (some to protect their Body like harper but most because they just can't catch in the Majors).

if MLB would be "bat first" with catchers they would just put failed outfield prospects behind the plate instead of having a backup catcher with a .600 OPS.

 

of course glove only doesn't work in MLB, but catchers are the weakest hitting Position and the most likely Position for a weaker bat (note that a weaker MLB bat is still an amazing batter that likely batted well over 400 in high School) to make an MLB roster. there have been a few exceptions like Vmart and Napoli but generally you have to be extremely polished to make the Majors and catchers on average are on the older side of most rookies compared to other positions.

If we are talking first round or first couple rounds, you will see lots of pitching in most any year.  Other than that it is all about talent, more than about position.

Last year I believe the first three picks were shortstops.  This was actually very unusual.  And yes, there have been first baseman drafted early out of HS.. Prince Fielder, Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman, off the top of my mind. Yes there have been HS catchers also drafted early.  Austin Hedges, Joey Mauer, and several others.  Mauer was actually the first over all pick.

Not sure about MLB catchers being weak behind the plate.  Some better than others, but that is not where you want someone that can't catch.  Actually I think some of today's catchers are among the best ever defensively.  The Cardinals catcher might be one of the best ever.

I can't find the original article, but this was similar in theme.  Some catchers appear to be hurting their pitchers, not helping them.  I have a very rudimentary understanding of how difficult it is to learn how to pitch 95+mph, I get why those guys are prized above all others in the draft.  However, it surprises me that helpful catchers aren't usually utilized as catchers. Between the framing, blocking, and tracking a catcher needs to do...well, I just thought it was a more specialized thing and not just any athletic person could pick it up.

http://espn.go.com/espn/featur...ankees-espn-magazine

CaCO3Girl posted:
RJM posted:
CaCO3Girl posted:

I was surprised to see the amount of Catchers on the super high end of the PG top prospects list.  Do MLB teams like catchers to mature in College first or does a HS catcher have a decent shot of making the first round?

It's not important to put much thought into what position a kid plays (position players). Most of them will change positions at the next level (college or pro). Those who move on can hit and are athletic enough to play any position. The exception are a handful of big time mashers.

Buster Posey was FSU's starting shortstop before moving to catcher. He volunteered for the move. It was a combination of the previous catcher leaving and an all SEC shortstop transferring in.

I'm not knocking anyone....BUT.....I read a report awhile back on CNN that said catchers in MLB are lacking in one key area...CATCHING!  If people rarely recruit catchers to BE catchers this could explain a lot. 

CaCO3

RJM is correct. College coaches and pro organizations will determine at which positions where the player will play.  While the class is full of catchers, so few, in fact very few will catch at a higher level.  The amount of work put in to be a  catcher is amazing.  In college, not only do you have to work with your pitchers you are to work at hitting. And accuracy with the throw and pop times, etc., etc. Keep in mind that Yadi is so successful at stopping runners from stealing,  that's essential.   It's just the one position that multi tasks more than any other. This is strongly a part of who becomes a catcher (makeup) and who doesn't,  and while its so much fun to catch in middle or high school, that's a walk in the park compared to college and college compared to  pro ball. Its a very hard job and most can't do it. They take a beating like no other and if you are aware, it has been a very dangerous position as well.

Not sure if you checked lately, but some of the best players in the game today are catchers! While some are exceptional, most have the same qualities. Their leadership and management is A+, they can hit and catch.  They also have great relationships with their pitchers. And of course to put your body through hell is a very large part of it. Framing is a skill, it also has to be learned along with the other skills required to catch.  But you can not catch at the big league level unless you can hit.  

It's important to note that many MLB managers  were catchers.  

Last edited by TPM
joemktg posted:

Jason will go first. Riley Pint will be in the top 10 if not top 5, as will Blake Rutherford. AJ Puk and Alec Hansen should be joined by Connor Jones (UVA) and Kyle Funkhouser (Louisville).

Circling back on the main topic...

BaseballAmerica, MLB.com, Fangraphs, PG, etc., all have their take on the draft, and the variances are significant. It's becoming obvious that there is a delta between these 3rd parties opines and the scouting community, and until there is hard reporting based on the scouting community, these lists need to be questioned.

Having said that, it's solid that Jason G. will be a top 5 pick. After that, from the HS grad class, who knows. Last time I checked, Fangraphs doesn't have a pick. 

 I truly think that some of these mock drafts are simply a copy of another. If a kid makes some noise early lets say his Freshman or Sophomore year, then he will never go away. Everyone of these websites lock on to about 30-40 names and they never turn loose.  I like to see these clubs that take a kid in the 2nd-4th round that nobody has in their top 500. But they can't risk losing him so they pop him in the 3rd round and he turns out to be the real deal. Heck even I could make a great pick in the first round.

Mock drafts are simply predictions.  I don't even get involved with the ones we do.  The most accurate mock draft would be based on information gathered, usually from MLB clubs. I do know we don't have to copy anyone else because we actually see most all the players. But mock drafts are just repeating what others that are involved with the draft are thinking. Not many secrets these days.

We spend much more time doing our player rankings.  Those rankings are based on what we have seen and what we really think.  They are usually fairly close to the actual draft but there are some big differences at times. Personally I think just about everybody that ranks players copies that list a little.  After all, it has proven to be pretty accurate over many years now.

The draft doesn't have a lot of surprises in the first round.  But it usually has a player or so not go in the first round that we thought should have. Usually any surprise pick is by a club that has more than one first round pick or an attempt to save money for later round picks.

Also several players simply give unrealistic demands for signing.  That is why you see some highly ranked players being skipped over in the early rounds. Every once in awhile a player is just unsignable, and tells clubs he is going to college no matter where he is drafted.  That is another reason why some highly regarded prospects go late or go undrafted.

Also in our rankings we don't consider make up, but the MLB clubs sure do. We rank kids on talent only.  but we get plenty of calls from scouting departments asking... How's his make up?  We can only answer that question when we really know a player well and have seen him many times. Even then, you never know for sure.

It is too early to know who the first few picks will be.  A lot can happen before draft day.  If I had the first pick today I would pick Jason Groome. But it would be nice to see our home town boy (AJ Puk) be the first pick. All those being considered right now have been to PG events, even those mentioned in this thread.  So however it ends up we will be happy.  Even if we disagree with the pick.

 

 

Wouldn't it be smart to not go so much after final season results? Of course at that age it could very well be real development but in theory teams could buy low on guys with not so spectacular last seasons, right?

guys like Harper or Strasburg who are unanimous number 1 picks almost before the last draft before their draft are probably rare.

Two important things regarding the early picks.

1. Almost always they are well known by the scouting community long before their final season.

2. They performed well in that final season. That final spring is vitally important. Prospects move up or down in the draft during that period.

Sometimes a player misses his final season or part of it due to injury.  Then scouting departments will go by what they have in the past.  BTW, there have been several pitchers go in the first round in the past few years that missed part or all of their final season.  A few were even rehabbing from TJ surgery.  Though chances are they would have been picked even earlier without the injury.

Some picks I don't understand. For example Alex bregman by the Astros. He is a good player with very good college stats but the scouting reports basically read average tools across the board (average defense, average power, average arm, average speed, might not stick at short...). I also read he is gritty and has the intangibles plus an advanced approach at the plate ( good eye, can take a walk) and that is all great but don't you want outstanding tools ( like Kris Bryant) at number 1 overall? Rogers probably has much better tools and he went third. Was Bergman a money saving move because the had another top10 pick?

Or was he a "moneyball" pick were an advanced college hitter that can take a walk is taken over a more toolsy player because he has less bust potential and arrives quicker?

 

 

 

Alex was one of the best high school hitters in his class.  We selected him for the PG All American Classic as a 2B and catcher.  We thought at the time that is where he best profiled. He has always been a top guy with the bat, and he has championship caliber make up.

At LSU he continued to show his hitting ability and he improved in every phase of the game, especially on defense as a shortstop.  Maybe he will end up at SS, but his value is that he can play several different positions. To me his is a right handed hitting Alex Gordon.  Gordon started as an infielder.  

Bregman's ceiling is one of the best hitters in the Big Leagues. At worst you have a high quality utility guy that plays regularly.  While others might have more elite level tools, there is much less risk with Bregman. If the Astros would have passed on him, he wouldn't have lasted much more than a couple picks.

PGStaff posted:

Alex was one of the best high school hitters in his class.  We selected him for the PG All American Classic as a 2B and catcher.  We thought at the time that is where he best profiled. He has always been a top guy with the bat, and he has championship caliber make up.

At LSU he continued to show his hitting ability and he improved in every phase of the game, especially on defense as a shortstop.  Maybe he will end up at SS, but his value is that he can play several different positions. To me his is a right handed hitting Alex Gordon.  Gordon started as an infielder.  

Bregman's ceiling is one of the best hitters in the Big Leagues. At worst you have a high quality utility guy that plays regularly.  While others might have more elite level tools, there is much less risk with Bregman. If the Astros would have passed on him, he wouldn't have lasted much more than a couple picks.

 

I'm not saying he is not a good prospect. he was projected as a top10 pick by most.

however at two Overall I think most Teams want a Talent like kris bryant or so. of course still quite a few number 2 picks never become a star but you want at least star upside usually.

the scouting reports say his Tools have about 50-55 as future value

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/...ortstop-alex-bregman

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs...-10-draft-prospects/

of course such a Player still can be good (Dustin pedroia is often mentioned)  but most top 3 picks have one or more future 70s (or even 80s) in their grading Profile.

for example 2014 second pick kolek got a 70-80 future FB grade, bryant obviously has 70-80 power, 2012 number 2 buxton has future 70s all over the board (except power). of course those Players still all can fail but still it is unusual that a Player that has no future grade projected above 60 to be drafted second Overall.

 

 

I understand your point, but I also know the Astros graded him better than those writers did.  I mean one of those writers gave him a present 35 as a hitter at LSU. You can't go watch a game and accurately grade a hitter. Hell, there were days when Willie Mays looked like a 3 hitter or worse.

I think his potential as a hitter should be a 7 grade.  I also think he grades better on power.

I agree that the #2 pick should have all star potential.  Also agree there were better tools guys below him.  But I can't think of one that was a better hitter.  I talked to a high level Astros scout and they believe Bregman does have all star potential.

We all know that even the surest bet can fail.  Bregman isn't one of those "wow" guys.  But the reward could be very substantial and the risk is relatively low.  His make up can't be over looked.  If the Astros would have selected someone else, I think Bregman would have gone in the next couple picks.  Anywhere in that range teams are looking for a future all star player.

I don't mind going out on a limb, because I've been wrong before. I think Bregman will chase a batting title and hit 20+ HRs and be an above average defensive player in the Big Leagues. 

 

Yeah maybe his hit tool was underrated in the reports. I have read that his swing is a little unconventional but he has very good contact skills, ok power and a good eye that should help his tool.

i can understand the Astros were looking for a safe pick after drafting a bust in Appel ( I know he is not done yet but they shipped him as a secondary piece for a relief pitcher so for them he is a bust). With his position and solid hitting he is probably a safe pick to become a 3-4 war player and maybe a little more.

They have seen enough IMO, but here is something to think about regarding the past history of Jason Groome.  Each year he starts off kind of slow and after awhile it all has kicked in.  Each year he has had a significant gain.  He is still very young for his class.  So it is really hard to imagine him improving a lot more, but his past and his age suggests he will.  So taking a month off before the draft "could" cost him a slot or two in the draft.  I know, it shouldn't and it's scary to think he is going to get better.

I don't think the incident will lower his stock. The teams have seen what he can do and the draft is supposed to be rather weak. Teams look for top level talent in the top 5 and there are basically him and pint and then some drop off to the number 3 whoever that is. Top talent is rare and groome and pint are the top talents of the class ( since the supposed top college pitchers like puk have their issues).

teams won't pick an inferior prospect because a player was banned for a month over a technicality, a number one pick only comes once a decade for most teams and you want a potential superstar.

The difference between the first pick and the third pick is about $2.5 million.  The reason he has been suspended is a technicality in the NJHS transfer rules.  So that sure isn't going to hurt him.  But not throwing in a game for a month at this time of year could cause a team to choose someone else that catches fire.  I wouldn't rule out Puk either. Last year at this time he was suspended for climbing a crane.  Two month later he was the favorite to be the first pick this year.

Truth is, If I were responsible for making the first pick, It would be easy, I pick Groome.  He is the best HS pitching prospect we have seen in a long time.  And we have seen just about all of them. When we see a 16 year old lefty that is about 6'6", throwing mid to higher 90s with a plus breaking ball and the best command ever and it all comes out of the most effortless delivery you will ever see.  Pretty hard to beat that package.  Though you can't ignore what Riley Pint is doing.

IMO, this is a very good year for HS hitters. And there are some other excellent arms, too.

PGStaff posted:

The difference between the first pick and the third pick is about $2.5 million.  The reason he has been suspended is a technicality in the NJHS transfer rules.  So that sure isn't going to hurt him.  But not throwing in a game for a month at this time of year could cause a team to choose someone else that catches fire.  I wouldn't rule out Puk either. Last year at this time he was suspended for climbing a crane.  Two month later he was the favorite to be the first pick this year.

Truth is, If I were responsible for making the first pick, It would be easy, I pick Groome.  He is the best HS pitching prospect we have seen in a long time.  And we have seen just about all of them. When we see a 16 year old lefty that is about 6'6", throwing mid to higher 90s with a plus breaking ball and the best command ever and it all comes out of the most effortless delivery you will ever see.  Pretty hard to beat that package.  Though you can't ignore what Riley Pint is doing.

IMO, this is a very good year for HS hitters. And there are some other excellent arms, too.

I don't think that month will cost him much if anything. even if someone catches fire the Scouts who draft HS guys probably look for Tools more than anything else and even with the month missed he still throws upper 90s. even if someone hits 10 HRs or throws two no hitters in that month the Scouts still will think that groome and pint are the best Players.

Last week I was talking to a guy who is connected to the Phillies, he used to be a part of the organization and is still very close to it. According to him the Phillies feel that Groome is no doubt the pick to make but they have concerns of him being drafted by and playing in his home market. For those you unfamiliar with the area Barnegat is about 40 or so from Philly (and about 20 miles or so from where Trout is from). I am not sure why that is such a concern assuming he spends a couple of years in the minors to develop but that is what I was told.

Rumors are obviously only worth what the person telling them credibility is worth, the guy who told me this is has been spot on several times over the years with comments of what the Phillies are going to do. I asked straight out if they were planning on drafting him and he said they still haven't decided...

There is so much that goes into the first round picks.  Sometimes they go for who they believe is the best and sometimes they go for a bargain so they have more money for another pick. After all, history shows that the number one pick doesn't always end up being the number one player.  A quick look at who has been MVP and Cy Young winners should tell us that.

old_school posted:

Last week I was talking to a guy who is connected to the Phillies, he used to be a part of the organization and is still very close to it. According to him the Phillies feel that Groome is no doubt the pick to make but they have concerns of him being drafted by and playing in his home market. For those you unfamiliar with the area Barnegat is about 40 or so from Philly (and about 20 miles or so from where Trout is from). I am not sure why that is such a concern assuming he spends a couple of years in the minors to develop but that is what I was told.

Rumors are obviously only worth what the person telling them credibility is worth, the guy who told me this is has been spot on several times over the years with comments of what the Phillies are going to do. I asked straight out if they were planning on drafting him and he said they still haven't decided...

As a long-time Phillies fan, it could be that some of the concern may be related to the team's experience with its 2010 first-round pick, Jesse Biddle, also a high-school LHP. He was from Philadelphia and grew up a Phillies fan, and there has been a belief -- rightly or wrongly -- in Phillies fans' circles that he put too much pressure on himself (particularly once he got to AA, in which the Phillies' affiliate is only about 60 miles away), or was under too much scrutiny, or something like that. Of course, in point of fact, lots of prospects struggle in AA, so who knows if it had anything to do with pressure or scrutiny or anything like that.

And 11 picks after Biddle the Blue Jays picked a RHP picked out of high school in Texas . . . can't recall his name . . . Synder-something . . .

2019Dad posted:
old_school posted:

Last week I was talking to a guy who is connected to the Phillies, he used to be a part of the organization and is still very close to it. According to him the Phillies feel that Groome is no doubt the pick to make but they have concerns of him being drafted by and playing in his home market. For those you unfamiliar with the area Barnegat is about 40 or so from Philly (and about 20 miles or so from where Trout is from). I am not sure why that is such a concern assuming he spends a couple of years in the minors to develop but that is what I was told.

Rumors are obviously only worth what the person telling them credibility is worth, the guy who told me this is has been spot on several times over the years with comments of what the Phillies are going to do. I asked straight out if they were planning on drafting him and he said they still haven't decided...

As a long-time Phillies fan, it could be that some of the concern may be related to the team's experience with its 2010 first-round pick, Jesse Biddle, also a high-school LHP. He was from Philadelphia and grew up a Phillies fan, and there has been a belief -- rightly or wrongly -- in Phillies fans' circles that he put too much pressure on himself (particularly once he got to AA, in which the Phillies' affiliate is only about 60 miles away), or was under too much scrutiny, or something like that. Of course, in point of fact, lots of prospects struggle in AA, so who knows if it had anything to do with pressure or scrutiny or anything like that.

And 11 picks after Biddle the Blue Jays picked a RHP picked out of high school in Texas . . . can't recall his name . . . Synder-something . . .

That's the Baseball God's correcting the error the NY Mets made in 1966 when they picked Steve Chilcott at #1 and left some Reggie guy on the board to be picked at #2. 

And there are others. 

more and more sources now say puk is the number 1 guy. listened to a BA Podcast and they talked up puk and groome a Little down but they generally said that HS arms are a huge risk  that is too big for 1/1.

they also said that pint has the highest upside out of all of them (mentioned syndergaard as a comp too) but they said that his mechanics Need tweaking (said they are jerky and not really fluid) and are currently not starter material so that is a risk (of course minor league pitching coaches will work with him but you never know who well a mechanics Alteration works for a pitcher).

Last edited by Dominik85
NYdad2017 posted:
2019Dad posted:
old_school posted:

Last week I was talking to a guy who is connected to the Phillies, he used to be a part of the organization and is still very close to it. According to him the Phillies feel that Groome is no doubt the pick to make but they have concerns of him being drafted by and playing in his home market. For those you unfamiliar with the area Barnegat is about 40 or so from Philly (and about 20 miles or so from where Trout is from). I am not sure why that is such a concern assuming he spends a couple of years in the minors to develop but that is what I was told.

Rumors are obviously only worth what the person telling them credibility is worth, the guy who told me this is has been spot on several times over the years with comments of what the Phillies are going to do. I asked straight out if they were planning on drafting him and he said they still haven't decided...

As a long-time Phillies fan, it could be that some of the concern may be related to the team's experience with its 2010 first-round pick, Jesse Biddle, also a high-school LHP. He was from Philadelphia and grew up a Phillies fan, and there has been a belief -- rightly or wrongly -- in Phillies fans' circles that he put too much pressure on himself (particularly once he got to AA, in which the Phillies' affiliate is only about 60 miles away), or was under too much scrutiny, or something like that. Of course, in point of fact, lots of prospects struggle in AA, so who knows if it had anything to do with pressure or scrutiny or anything like that.

And 11 picks after Biddle the Blue Jays picked a RHP picked out of high school in Texas . . . can't recall his name . . . Synder-something . . .

That's the Baseball God's correcting the error the NY Mets made in 1966 when they picked Steve Chilcott at #1 and left some Reggie guy on the board to be picked at #2. 

And there are others. 

To be fair, Chilcott never made the majors because of a major injury, not necessarily poor play.

Dominik85 posted:

more and more sources now say puk is the number 1 guy. listened to a BA Podcast and they talked up puk and groome a Little down but they generally said that HS arms are a huge risk  that is too big for 1/1.

they also said that pint has the highest upside out of all of them (mentioned syndergaard as a comp too) but they said that his mechanics Need tweaking (said they are jerky and not really fluid) and are currently not starter material so that is a risk (of course minor league pitching coaches will work with him but you never know who well a mechanics Alteration works for a pitcher).

Today I saw several articles that said Groome was sliding. He had a bad outing this weekend but they don't really hold that against you. A month ago I would of thought Groome would go 1-1, and Puk about 1-6, but those might be reversed now.

TPM posted:
joemktg posted:
TPM posted:

I am so excited for Kevin O'Sullivan and the Gators to get the #1 pick.

So you think Buddy Reed is that strong of a prospect? 

Where did u get that from? I was replying about AJ Puk.

Didn't know where you coming from, as I've heard Reed climbing up while Puk dropping. But it sounds like you're hearing 1.1 is assured from your internal sources. 

joemktg posted:
TPM posted:
joemktg posted:
TPM posted:

I am so excited for Kevin O'Sullivan and the Gators to get the #1 pick.

So you think Buddy Reed is that strong of a prospect? 

Where did u get that from? I was replying about AJ Puk.

Didn't know where you coming from, as I've heard Reed climbing up while Puk dropping. But it sounds like you're hearing 1.1 is assured from your internal sources. 

I have no internal sources, I was indicating how happy I would be for one of my fav college pitchers, a gator, as well as one of my favorite people to see a pitcher picked first.

Once again, my reply was in response to Redbird's post.

 

Dominik85 posted:

Some picks I don't understand. For example Alex bregman by the Astros. He is a good player with very good college stats but the scouting reports basically read average tools across the board (average defense, average power, average arm, average speed, might not stick at short...). I also read he is gritty and has the intangibles plus an advanced approach at the plate ( good eye, can take a walk) and that is all great but don't you want outstanding tools ( like Kris Bryant) at number 1 overall? Rogers probably has much better tools and he went third. Was Bergman a money saving move because the had another top10 pick?

Or was he a "moneyball" pick were an advanced college hitter that can take a walk is taken over a more toolsy player because he has less bust potential and arrives quicker?

 

 

 

Looks like Alex is starting to really turn it on!

I'm reading now a lot about moniak being first Overall. I have not really seen him Play but many scouting reports don't read that exciting for a HS Player, especially doubting his power and future power potential for an OF.

however I have also read a Jacoby ellsbury comparision which would of course be an excellent outcome.

still his Report reads more like a 6-12 pick than a 1/1 pick but of course a lot can happen in the developement of a Player.

with the risk that HS Players bring I still probably would pick a college bat unless that HS Player is a really big Thing. his HS stats also don't look that exciting, he has of course time to grow into his power and with BBCOR hitting HRs is not easy anymore but still the top HS Players hit Close to 10 HRs a season.

moniak will get stronger but he will also Switch to Wood, not sure if he can ever grow into ellsbury Kind of power.

As expected, things are becoming a bit more dynamic. Reason: there is uncertainty at the top of the draft boards (or soon-to-be-finalized draft boards). Mickey Moniak is a superb player as is Blake Rutherford. Are they 1-1 picks? I don't know, you don't know, no one knows, which leads to the question "So what's going on right now?"

Teams are trying to attach dollar figures to each pick, attempting to shave dollars from the higher potential picks so as to increase their budget at the lower levels. So since there isn't a clear 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, etc., war rooms are discussing value, i.e., if we can get player X for 25% less than a slightly higher ranked player, then player X moves ahead. And that's what's happening right now with the players in the top 10(!). As a result, you may see a so-called dark horse move up and get selected.

Delvin Perez: BA reported PEDs. Lord knows what's behind this. It could be conscious, duplicitous behavior by the player, or it could something as benign as a sinus medication not found in the US. I'm withholding judgement until more is known. Either way, he'll still receive a ticket off the island: too much talent.

Groome decommitted from Vandy and committed to Chipola CC, clearly as a statement to prospective clubs. Maybe it works, or maybe it completely backfires.

Joe,   Your thoughts on why Groome would decommit ?  He could always go to Chipola  the day before class starts.  I can see that if he does not get the money he wants he could do one year instead of three.  I think that's a terrible idea.  I would guess his asking price verses the offer could not be too far apart. 

Going to Chipola for a season might not help him in the draft at.  Too much downside , he should take his money and move on.

bacdorslider posted:

Joe,   Your thoughts on why Groome would decommit ?  He could always go to Chipola  the day before class starts.  I can see that if he does not get the money he wants he could do one year instead of three.  I think that's a terrible idea.  I would guess his asking price verses the offer could not be too far apart. 

Going to Chipola for a season might not help him in the draft at.  Too much downside , he should take his money and move on.

I think this play could work in a 1:1 situation, but not in a 1:many situation. By telegraphing this before the draft, his adviser risks turning off clubs, and in a year where there isn't a clear #1, it's a very risky move. The adviser is going for it all, and the downside is that his client will drop down if not completely off the board. The risk/reward equation doesn't pan out.

I don't know this kid at all.  Mine is purely speculation.  Assuming the kid has the grades to get into and make it at Vandy, I cannot understand this move.  I'm sure the kid is getting a full ride at Vandy with their ability to give out money above the 11.7 from endowments.  The kid obviously has the talent to go in the first few picks.  If he doesn't get the money or slot he wants, go to Vandy.  It's not like those guys at Vandy don't have a great track record of developing pitchers and getting them into pro ball.  To each his own, but I would never advise my son to give up a chance for a great education at a great university.  There just isn't enough difference in the money at 1/1 and 1/3 or 1/5 for me to walk away from the Vandy experience.  I know the kid from Stanford did exactly this a few years ago, but I think history tells us if you aren't 1/1 pick, the odds of you being it the next year or 3 years is pretty slim.  Chipola is a great program, but it aint Vandy.  My advice to my son would be make up your mind if you are ready for pro ball or not.  With this kid's talent, barring injury, the money will take care of itself.  I see this as a fundamental issue of do you want to start your pro career now or do you want the college experience.

With leaving high school and returning and now decommitting sounds like he would have never made it to Vandy in the first place. 

Maybe it wasnt his choice to make.

If Perez is drafted early it just goes to show  how little MLB cares about PEDS, and I am sure it wasnt some nasal spray.  Not disclosing what it was tells you a lot.

For those who disagreed with Jeff Passan exposing a troubled youth, I think he did a pretty good job at telling us like it is.  

A nice D-1 program can be used as leverage, but if everyone knows that you might not be seriously planning on a 3 year commitment it's not the same. But by showing that your willing to attend JUCO 1 year until your stock is on the rise again, teams that really like him have to decide do we pay him 4 million now? Or 6 million next year? 

Teams that have no interest in him because of character issues, might get on board next year if all goes well.

There was an interview with Groome where he said he didn't really like school.  At some point he maybe thought he might attend Vandy, but that has not crossed his mind in the last 12 months, if not longer.  Not sure who his "adviser" is but this is certainly an attempt to show that he might pass on the current draft is the money is not "enough" - have not seen what folks are saying his number is.  I understand someone knowing their "value", but once you get seven figures - maybe starting with a "2" or a "3", not sure I understand holding out unless you REALLY think you can show more during the next 12 months.  Actually, I think his offer will start with a "4" or a "5" and ought to be plenty to live on - maybe just not enough to satisfy the "adviser"'s ego.  Besides, he owes his parents for the year at IMG.

Slot value for 1/1 is $9 million dropping to $7.7 for 1/2 and $6.5 for 1/3 - and then just falls like a rock to $1.6 for the 41st pick in round #1.  My question - based on who you believe will be picked 1/1, what do you think the bonus amount will be or should be?  Given the uncertainly - JOEKKTG had some excellent comments - it would seem that the 1/1 pick might not even get to $7.7 - maybe top three will all get between $5 and $6 million.

Go44dad posted:

The way the "slots and bonus pool" for the draft is constructed,  there is a big incentive for a club to select a player who is not necessarily the best or highest ceiling, but the one that will sign and save a couple million for getting better picks later. 

But isn't this the last year the draft will be done this way?  I mean it's possible nothing will change after negotiations but I wonder if a team will do something crazy to point out a flaw or loophole in the current draft system.

From what I know and have gathered in my opinion the young man should take anything over 3 million.  Of course it's nice to be 1/1 but when you factor in all the variables.  I agree with GO44DAD , teams are not going to pay 6 million just because they can.... not in this draft.... Groome is a great talent, but he is young for his class .... Pint, Anderson, and Manning could / would / should end up a better player.....

His advisers advice is terrible.... taking a kid that can get 3 to 4 million and start his career ... I had two sons go JUCO... I have been to Chipola many many times.... taking this route to 'maybe' get more next year is ludicrous.. too much can happen... trouble, injuries  not knocking Chipola, but if you did get injuried do you want to be at Vanderbilt or with a club.... or out in the sticks at Chipola?   

he needs a new adviser

bacdorslider posted:

From what I know and have gathered in my opinion the young man should take anything over 3 million.  Of course it's nice to be 1/1 but when you factor in all the variables.  I agree with GO44DAD , teams are not going to pay 6 million just because they can.... not in this draft.... Groome is a great talent, but he is young for his class .... Pint, Anderson, and Manning could / would / should end up a better player.....

His advisers advice is terrible.... taking a kid that can get 3 to 4 million and start his career ... I had two sons go JUCO... I have been to Chipola many many times.... taking this route to 'maybe' get more next year is ludicrous.. too much can happen... trouble, injuries  not knocking Chipola, but if you did get injuried do you want to be at Vanderbilt or with a club.... or out in the sticks at Chipola?   

he needs a new adviser

Before the draft you have to disclose most everything especially if someone os going to pay you a lot of money.  Probably found out he would never make it to Vandy, now he just brought his negotiating power down.

If you want to play pro ball sign, if not do better in school to increase your options.

This is one of the hardest drafts ever to predict.  There is so much going on behind the scenes that will affect this draft.  Stories will be flying and bargain hunting will play a part.  Clubs are going to try getting two or three top guys and spread out their bonus money.  

I would say that about 20 or so are sure first Rd picks in some order.  Some that are mentioned as sure first Rd picks in the many mock drafts will not be going in the first Rd.

I (we) never publicize everything we know.  We don't talk about makeup, Signability, or injury unless the injury is well documented.  

Without any issues I think there would be a clear cut #1 this year.  That said, there isn't a clear cut #1.

I'm kind of pulling for those that have been to PG, but that is just about all of them.  I would love to see Puk go first, he pretty much grew up in our building in Cedar Rapids.  We are very close to the family.  Iowa has never had a player go first overall.  It would be a pleasant surprise if that happened.

PGStaff posted:

This is one of the hardest drafts ever to predict.  There is so much going on behind the scenes that will affect this draft.  Stories will be flying and bargain hunting will play a part.  Clubs are going to try getting two or three top guys and spread out their bonus money.  

 

And it's happening right now...like...right now!

younggun posted:

I don't know this kid at all.  Mine is purely speculation.  Assuming the kid has the grades to get into and make it at Vandy, I cannot understand this move.  I'm sure the kid is getting a full ride at Vandy with their ability to give out money above the 11.7 from endowments.  The kid obviously has the talent to go in the first few picks.  If he doesn't get the money or slot he wants, go to Vandy.  It's not like those guys at Vandy don't have a great track record of developing pitchers and getting them into pro ball.  To each his own, but I would never advise my son to give up a chance for a great education at a great university.  There just isn't enough difference in the money at 1/1 and 1/3 or 1/5 for me to walk away from the Vandy experience.  I know the kid from Stanford did exactly this a few years ago, but I think history tells us if you aren't 1/1 pick, the odds of you being it the next year or 3 years is pretty slim.  Chipola is a great program, but it aint Vandy.  My advice to my son would be make up your mind if you are ready for pro ball or not.  With this kid's talent, barring injury, the money will take care of itself.  I see this as a fundamental issue of do you want to start your pro career now or do you want the college experience.

It could simply be an early negotiating tactic.  Most clubs won't believe that a kid in the top 10 would forego signing to attend college and put the draft off three more years.  By shifting to CC, he basically says if he doesn't get the money he wants, he'll see you again next year.

It CAN provide leverage to a top prospect in this scenario, but could be a huge risk as Joemktg pointed out, if there isn't clarity among the top 5-10 on the board.

I will say the the risk/reward actually moves to the players favor IMHO in this case as he is basically saying he will consider the draft on a year to year basis.  Downside risk is injury or a bad year in the CC ranks hurting draft stock next year.  Upside is potential negotiating leverage and that 2017 draft seems to be stronger top end in position players vs this year draft which is clearly heavier top end on arms.

CaCO3Girl posted:

Good luck JoeMKTG and all the HSBBW'ers who have a personal interest in this Draft!  I really hope it turns out the way you all want it to! Try and get away from all electronic devices if you can!  What will be will be.

Thanks, but we need the phones on as there is much discussion taking place. I wish I could turn the damn thing off.

joemktg posted:
CaCO3Girl posted:

Good luck JoeMKTG and all the HSBBW'ers who have a personal interest in this Draft!  I really hope it turns out the way you all want it to! Try and get away from all electronic devices if you can!  What will be will be.

Thanks, but we need the phones on as there is much discussion taking place. I wish I could turn the damn thing off.

LOL, It's a great problem to have!  Really truly, good luck!

old_school posted:

the one thing I am fairly sure of is that whoever the Phillies draft will be the wrong guy....

Lol. That is way too funny. As a white sox fan I feel the exact same way!  Unless of course they pick one of our HSBBW guys or our Wisconsin guys!  Good luck for you guys out there for whom tonight is of personal interest. I can't imagine the pride and joy - and nerves you are feeling today!  God Bless and good luck!

Last edited by 2020dad
TPM posted:
redbird5 posted:
TPM posted:

So are you expecting your son to be an early draft pick?

Yes, his son is one of the top 2016 hitters in the class.  He is ranked very highly and has a chance to hear his name called tonight.

Do you have a group up at Clemson this weekend?

We do but it isn't my team.  I will be at Va Tech.

The Doctor posted:

What if Groome was not the first HS lefty selected this year? what a surprise that would be.

Joey Wentz has ERA 0.00 95 Ks in 45 innings with only 10 walks. what a rise for a kid at the right time.

Well it looks like Groome will not be the first HS lefty selected. Braxton Garrett took the honor as Groome slipped. Very very interesting draft this year.

don't understand the braves. their farm System is very weak in bats and they draft 3 HS pitchers and at 3 not even the Consensus best or second best HS pitcher. reports on anderson don't read exciting at all. 

also those guys won't really contribute before 2020 so the rebuild will take many more years.

with the new park I thought they would be aggressive into 2018 at latest.

"Manage" might be a better term than "trick".  The team picking #1 may not really need to #1 player on the board so forcing them into a fixed bonus would seem overly strict.  I do wonder who came up with the minimum 40% offer so as to get compensatory pick if not signed - not sure why this isn't 60% or greater.  Knowing Boston took Groome, I was interested in who they took in round 2 - you can see that they reached down and according to reports picked a below slot kid so they could he fund Groome - I guess the thinking is that they will need to offer above the $3.2 million slot value, but I'm guessing they might not be able to go too far over $4 million unless they lowball picks 3-10.

I think there has to be some flexibility built into the process or the team picking #1 needs to be able to "sell" that position to another team that wants to shell out $9 million for some guy.  Speaking of bonuses, I'm taking bets on the highest bonus this year.  I'll start off with an over/under at $6.5 million and I'll take the under.

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