Supposedly a pretty strong bat draft but weak on pitching, the top 6-7 guys currently talked at the top are all hitters.

The most talked about hitters are 1b andrew vaughn and catcher adley rutschman.

Vaughn is a right handed 1b only which isn't the greatest profile, not a great athlete and rather short for a 1b but he is an absolute beast at the plate hitting both for power and average. His bat is very advanced and he likely will only take a little more than a year to be ready for the majors. He raked all 3 years and this year is no difference at 414/580/793

Rutschman is probably the best prospect of the draft. He has almost raked as much as vaughn (not quite but not that far behind) and this year so far he only got better at 456/619/895. He is probably the second best bat of the draft behind vaughn but he is also a competent catcher. There is not a lot of doubt he won't go 1-1 if he keeps this up and stays healthy.

The other two guys are hs shortstops cj Abrams and bobby witt jr. Witt has plus power albeit some have concerns about the hit tool while Abrams has a lot of speed but not no pop either.

Which other guys do you see at the top?

Original Post

One guy that I have not seen get the press but I've seen play a couple of times and who looks like a 1st rounder to my uninformed eyes is Hunter Bishop. He's really coming on this year - hitting 400+ 10 jacks.  With ASU breaking into the top 25 this week people are going to start noticing him.

BTW I follow Cal and last year I heard that Vaughn might play some C this year, which I think could have increased people's opinion of him defensively.  He pitched for Cal frosh year and can throw upper 80's topping 90 off the mound so while he's obviously a little short for 1B he does have the arm for 3B or even C, which he played some in HS and before.

Fangraphs has Rutschman and Vaughn at #1 and #2 on their draft board, and the next college player they have is Bryson Stott of UNLV at the #5 spot, and the one after that is Michael Busch of UNC at #8, and then Kameron Misner of Missouri at #9.

Just FYI, from the "youneverknow" category:

Adley Rutschman PG ranking in the class of 2016: 432

Andrew Vaughn PG ranking in the class of 2016: 422

Bryson Stott PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 1000

Michael Busch PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 500

Kameron Misner PG ranking in the class of 2016: 270

Very few surprises in the top10. Almost anyone had rutschman, witt, vaughn and bleday top4, greene, abrams and bishop were no surprise either.

I think due to the one million dbacks picks teams in the top10 might have been more shy about deals and were just taking the best player for slot because they have to fear not much talent is around at 40-50.

Time will tell, but IMO Andrew Vaughn won the 2019 draft.  After a lot of whispers that either he or Witt might go to the Orioles as the #1 overall pick, Rutschman is the poor, newly rich kid who goes to the worst team in baseball that also has a low-rated farm system, while Vaughn goes to a team that is currently on the cusp of being good and has a highly rated farm system stocked with top 100 prospects (including a pretty solid 1B, so that may be interesting.)  By this metric, C. J.  Abrams, chosen #6 by the Padres, is a very close second.

2019Dad posted:

Fangraphs has Rutschman and Vaughn at #1 and #2 on their draft board, and the next college player they have is Bryson Stott of UNLV at the #5 spot, and the one after that is Michael Busch of UNC at #8, and then Kameron Misner of Missouri at #9.

Just FYI, from the "youneverknow" category:

Adley Rutschman PG ranking in the class of 2016: 432

Andrew Vaughn PG ranking in the class of 2016: 422

Bryson Stott PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 1000

Michael Busch PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 500

Kameron Misner PG ranking in the class of 2016: 270

Is it: you never know?  Or, Perfect Game doesn't really know?

Asking for a friend... (!)

Those PG ratings are a fascinating indicator of how imprecise scouting is.  Yes, one could question how accurate those scouts ratings were, but then a player's body and mental approach changes so much from high school through the first three years of college. 

Did these kids work that much harder to become much better players than they were in HS?  The stories of Adley's work ethic are well known.  And of course their college teams, coaches, and competition have a lot to do with it.  Still for kids not highly ranked by PG in HS, every year there is proof that your time in college baseball may change their prospects for MLB.

JCG posted:

Time will tell, but IMO Andrew Vaughn won the 2019 draft.  After a lot of whispers that either he or Witt might go to the Orioles as the #1 overall pick, Rutschman is the poor, newly rich kid who goes to the worst team in baseball that also has a low-rated farm system, while Vaughn goes to a team that is currently on the cusp of being good and has a highly rated farm system stocked with top 100 prospects (including a pretty solid 1B, so that may be interesting.)  By this metric, C. J.  Abrams, chosen #6 by the Padres, is a very close second.

If the goal is to make it to the show, wouldn't you want to be the best player in the farm system for a MLB that sucks? 

Fast track to the MLB and get that service time clock running...

CTbballDad posted:
JCG posted:

Time will tell, but IMO Andrew Vaughn won the 2019 draft.  After a lot of whispers that either he or Witt might go to the Orioles as the #1 overall pick, Rutschman is the poor, newly rich kid who goes to the worst team in baseball that also has a low-rated farm system, while Vaughn goes to a team that is currently on the cusp of being good and has a highly rated farm system stocked with top 100 prospects (including a pretty solid 1B, so that may be interesting.)  By this metric, C. J.  Abrams, chosen #6 by the Padres, is a very close second.

If the goal is to make it to the show, wouldn't you want to be the best player in the farm system for a MLB that sucks? 

Fast track to the MLB and get that service time clock running...

You have a point.  But if you're all that good, and both Rutshman and Vaughn are, wouldn't you rather get to MLB just as quickly and win?

3and2Fastball posted:
2019Dad posted:

Fangraphs has Rutschman and Vaughn at #1 and #2 on their draft board, and the next college player they have is Bryson Stott of UNLV at the #5 spot, and the one after that is Michael Busch of UNC at #8, and then Kameron Misner of Missouri at #9.

Just FYI, from the "youneverknow" category:

Adley Rutschman PG ranking in the class of 2016: 432

Andrew Vaughn PG ranking in the class of 2016: 422

Bryson Stott PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 1000

Michael Busch PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 500

Kameron Misner PG ranking in the class of 2016: 270

Is it: you never know?  Or, Perfect Game doesn't really know?

Asking for a friend... (!)

Interesting list... I looked up these profiles and there was not much PG activity for any of them. Rutschman went to 0 PG events, Vaughn went to 2 (both in CA), Stott (4, all on west coast), Busch (4, all in CA or AZ), and Misner went to 1.  I wouldn't necessarily say that PG was wrong, but this seems to point to PG ranking what they see.   Few seem to get ranked high if they don't spend a lot of time in GA or FL with PG.

CTbballDad posted:
JCG posted:

Time will tell, but IMO Andrew Vaughn won the 2019 draft.  After a lot of whispers that either he or Witt might go to the Orioles as the #1 overall pick, Rutschman is the poor, newly rich kid who goes to the worst team in baseball that also has a low-rated farm system, while Vaughn goes to a team that is currently on the cusp of being good and has a highly rated farm system stocked with top 100 prospects (including a pretty solid 1B, so that may be interesting.)  By this metric, C. J.  Abrams, chosen #6 by the Padres, is a very close second.

If the goal is to make it to the show, wouldn't you want to be the best player in the farm system for a MLB that sucks? 

Fast track to the MLB and get that service time clock running...

What is also very important is who is in front of you on the MLB team.  I've seen top prospects buried In the minors because no place to put them.  Your time clock may be delayed for a few seasons or you can end up being traded.  Those things you have zero control over thus just go about giving 100%, progress, and put up the best numbers you can.

Smitty28 posted:
3and2Fastball posted:
2019Dad posted:

Fangraphs has Rutschman and Vaughn at #1 and #2 on their draft board, and the next college player they have is Bryson Stott of UNLV at the #5 spot, and the one after that is Michael Busch of UNC at #8, and then Kameron Misner of Missouri at #9.

Just FYI, from the "youneverknow" category:

Adley Rutschman PG ranking in the class of 2016: 432

Andrew Vaughn PG ranking in the class of 2016: 422

Bryson Stott PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 1000

Michael Busch PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 500

Kameron Misner PG ranking in the class of 2016: 270

Is it: you never know?  Or, Perfect Game doesn't really know?

Asking for a friend... (!)

Interesting list... I looked up these profiles and there was not much PG activity for any of them. Rutschman went to 0 PG events, Vaughn went to 2 (both in CA), Stott (4, all on west coast), Busch (4, all in CA or AZ), and Misner went to 1.  I wouldn't necessarily say that PG was wrong, but this seems to point to PG ranking what they see.   Few seem to get ranked high if they don't spend a lot of time in GA or FL with PG.

Here's some more from yesterday's first day of the draft. I added the state because there may be something to your point that PG doesn't see kids who are not in the Southeast as often - Rutschman (Oregon), Vaughn (California), Stott (Nevada), Busch (Minnesota), and Misner (Missouri) -- and thus misses more of them:

  • Josh Jung, 8th pick in 2019 draft, PG ranking in class of 2016: 430 (Texas)
  • Shea Langeliers, 9th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Texas)
  • Michael Toglia, 23rd pick, PG ranking: 500 (Washington)
  • Kody Hoese, 25th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Indiana)
  • Ryan Jensen, 27th pick, PG ranking: 500 (California)
  • Korey Lee, 31st pick, PG ranking: 500 (California)
  • Drey Jameson, 34th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Indiana)
  • TJ Sikkema, 38th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Iowa)
  • Matt Wallner, 39th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Minnesota)
  • Seth Johnson, 40th pick, PG ranking: Follow (North Carolina)
  • Davis Wendzel, 41st pick, PG ranking: 500 (California)
  • Beau Philip, 60th pick, PG ranking: 500 (California)
  • Jared Triolo, 72nd pick, PG ranking: Not Ranked (Texas)
  • Logan Driscoll, 73rd pick, PG ranking: 500 (Virginia)
  • Tommy Henry, 74th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Michigan)
  • Isaiah Campbell, 76th pick, PG ranking: 500 (Kansas)

I have thought that PG doesn't scout the West Coast all that well (and now they have some competition with PBR so maybe it changes) but maybe it's just that they don't scout the "not Southeast" well?

TMM_Dad posted:

I checked in last night and was surprised and disappointed that I could find no discussion of any sons of HSBBW in this year's draft.  Please identify or respond with a link if I missed something.

I know of about a dozen members' sons who are listed on this year's Draft Tracker, but I don't know of any who have been picked yet.

I went through the draft thang in 2013 and 2016; Today I’m in Texas watching AA BP.

Good fortune for those with a player in the mix.

My Advise: Don’t watch the tracker. Wait for your call from the team. It’s less stressful than watching the minute hand tick on the clock.

MILB DAD

 

MidAtlanticDad posted:
TMM_Dad posted:

I checked in last night and was surprised and disappointed that I could find no discussion of any sons of HSBBW in this year's draft.  Please identify or respond with a link if I missed something.

I know of about a dozen members' sons who are listed on this year's Draft Tracker, but I don't know of any who have been picked yet.

I was pleasantly surprised to see that one of my son's HS teammates is listed in the draft tracker.  Only about 20 HS kids from our state listed...does anyone know how that list is put together?

3and2Fastball posted:
2019Dad posted:

Fangraphs has Rutschman and Vaughn at #1 and #2 on their draft board, and the next college player they have is Bryson Stott of UNLV at the #5 spot, and the one after that is Michael Busch of UNC at #8, and then Kameron Misner of Missouri at #9.

Just FYI, from the "youneverknow" category:

Adley Rutschman PG ranking in the class of 2016: 432

Andrew Vaughn PG ranking in the class of 2016: 422

Bryson Stott PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 1000

Michael Busch PG ranking in the class of 2016: Top 500

Kameron Misner PG ranking in the class of 2016: 270

Is it: you never know?  Or, Perfect Game doesn't really know?

Asking for a friend... (!)

The 13th overall pick was never even invited to PG National, let alone the All America games. Got cut at AC tryouts less than a year ago. 

It's just proof that unless you're committed to a top tier school or play for one of the top travel teams in the country you really won't find your name on too many lists. In their defense, they're not traveling the country seeking these players out, they're being fed information and then watching when they show up to their events. This is exactly why you can't put too much stock in the rankings. Sure they feature many of the top guys, but far from perfect. 

roughly 5,220 names on that draft picker list, if I did my math right. (30 per page, 174 pages) only the first 200 or so are ranked I believe? Son got on a list somewhere and was asked to sign up for the MLB draft prospect link and provide oodles of medical and personal information so he's on the list, but with only one team's scout coming out to see him a few times then not replying to emails it's doubtful he's on anyone's short list! He was sick before/during his junior year and missed out on his AC tryouts and MLB scout event, so that didn't help. Hopefully he'll have 3 great years of college ball and be a better choice in 2022. It's still fun to pull his name up on the list.

Top schools for # of draft picks this year (top 5: UCLA, Vandy, Miss St., Indiana, UCSB): https://twitter.com/MLBDraft/s.../1136649277235748865

For conferences, the PAC12 just edged the SEC in terms of picks per team (https://twitter.com/Brian_Clem.../1136407310652334080):

  • PAC12: 6.36 picks per team (70 picks/11 teams)
  • SEC: 6.29 picks per team (84 picks/14 teams)
  • Big 12: 5.33 picks per team (48 picks/9 teams)
  • ACC: 4.92 picks per team (69 picks/14 teams)
2019Dad posted:

Top schools for # of draft picks this year (top 5: UCLA, Vandy, Miss St., Indiana, UCSB): https://twitter.com/MLBDraft/s.../1136649277235748865

For conferences, the PAC12 just edged the SEC in terms of picks per team (https://twitter.com/Brian_Clem.../1136407310652334080):

  • PAC12: 6.36 picks per team (70 picks/11 teams)
  • SEC: 6.29 picks per team (84 picks/14 teams)
  • Big 12: 5.33 picks per team (48 picks/9 teams)
  • ACC: 4.92 picks per team (69 picks/14 teams)

Marketing rule:  If you're not number one, create a new category. 

Go44dad posted:
2019Dad posted:

Top schools for # of draft picks this year (top 5: UCLA, Vandy, Miss St., Indiana, UCSB): https://twitter.com/MLBDraft/s.../1136649277235748865

For conferences, the PAC12 just edged the SEC in terms of picks per team (https://twitter.com/Brian_Clem.../1136407310652334080):

  • PAC12: 6.36 picks per team (70 picks/11 teams)
  • SEC: 6.29 picks per team (84 picks/14 teams)
  • Big 12: 5.33 picks per team (48 picks/9 teams)
  • ACC: 4.92 picks per team (69 picks/14 teams)

Marketing rule:  If you're not number one, create a new category. 

LOL, my measure -- picks per team -- is way better, especially if you're in the Big 9 . . . I mean Big 12!

2019Dad posted:

Picks by state:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLB.../1139315544258224128

Illinois stood out for me -- almost as many picks as Georgia. 

I was curious, so  I compared the number of picks to state populations.  Mississippi is way out in front with 11.4 picks per million residents, Oklahoma next at 8.7.  Illinois ends up at the bottom of the list.  Surprisingly (to me, at least), the other bottom-ranked states are CA and TX.  You won't get any quibbles from me about the high quality of baseball in those two states (and the absolute number of great players obviously is much higher there), but in terms of density of drafted players per total players, some of the smaller states are actually out in front.

Just one year's data and I'm not trying to knock any state's baseball culture.  Just thought this was interesting.

2019 Draft Picks Per Million Residents

MS

11.4

OK

8.7

SC

6.6

NC

6.3

FL

6.1

AZ

5.2

GA

4.7

CA

4.3

TX

3.9

IL

3.3

I actually think those stats are a little misleading. Think of the mass exodus of northern players to southern states for baseball. Plenty to those kids you see as drafted in the south are really northern guys. I think if you break it up by home state you still see GA, TX, FL leading the way but I'm sure a few of the northern states move up much higher on the list. 

PG are not professional scouts, they don’t have a team, and have never drafted a player. They rank players based on what they see and if they have been at one of their events.  PG holds showcases, tournaments, etc.. but their rankings are not done by pro scouts, and pro scouts do not use there rankings to consider players for the draft. PG serves a good purpose by allowing multiple players to be seen at certain events.


The state code on https://www.mlb.com/draft/tracker is the school's location. 

For college players, would need to derive information from college team roster.

 

Question - On Average how many players from state xx are drafted directly from High School?   How many of these players sign vs go to college?  What schools do they normally attend? 4yr vs 2yr.

For Players that were drafted but chose to go college, did they improve their draft ranking?

For Players that were not drafted out of High School (late bloomers?),  what school did they go to?

Maybe,  "Some times one needs to take a straight line crooked".

 

The only fact that matters is where do the professional players come from, minor league or major leagues. Ca, Tx, Fl, Ga. produce the most, it’s a fact. However, almost half of minor league players and about 35% of major leaguers are international players.

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