I've seen more players decommit in the last 10 days than commit. Unless you include college transfers...
@LousyLefty posted:I've seen more players decommit in the last 10 days than commit. Unless you include college transfers...
Saw this coming months ago and have advised that it’s time to make a new plan
I know several kids who didn't jump in the transfer portal that will have to go down if they want to play. I think this year, greater than any other I remember there are a lot of conversations during the summer about next spring's picture for current players. This is the year that a player needed to have a good summer. I know a few who made the choice to not play summer ball after not playing this fall and it has bitten them. Rosters are filling up because there are a lot of really good players in the transfer portal from big schools that played last year and are leaving where they were. Everybody better have a backup plan for this fall and winter. I think 2022's will be fine but they not be where they thought they would be. There will be some ponds that were correct, in our analogy of fish in the right pond, that all of a sudden have some really big fish dumped in them.
It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
@DanJ posted:One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
Unfortunately for my own 2022, this makes complete economic sense. The recruiting market is currently glutted.
I'm seeing 2021s that re-classed to 2022s and are in worse shape than last year. A few thought they were better than the offers they got last year, most didn't progress.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
This is a really good post and I suggest that everyone that it applies to read it again & again. It’s spot on. The market dictates where a player belongs. It’s basic economics - plain and simple.
I may have missed it, but will the roster size change in 2022?
@2022NYC posted:I may have missed it, but will the roster size change in 2022?
40 man rosters for 2022. Haven’t heard anything for 2023
It's better than being 41 or lower. If you make the roster, you have a chance.
You forget these are max numbers. Some AD's are making teams stay at 32!!!!
@Good Knight posted:You forget these are max numbers. Many AD's are making teams stay at 32!!!!
If you are on a team that’s keeping the roster at 32 you are either very fortunate or you did your homework well. Either way you are in the vast minority.
I am, we did and we are!
They had 37 on their roster last year. I don't know of a single P5 team that only had 32 on their roster. They may keep travel roster down or some resemblance but all the P5 schools I have looked at have close to 40.
I highly recommend this for uncommitted ‘22s & ‘23s. There are some very good JuCo programs that will be in attendance. 
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Well Minnesota is staying at 32.
They show 37 on website. What happened to other 5?
I am not going to play this game with you especially with last years roster.
Not trying to start anything I just knew they had 40 on the roster at one point and now it shows 37.
We kept 46 on posted roster but that included guys who were hurt and some who redshirted early and were staying. We have had 5 go in transfer portal and 2 others that are going to juco's this year. 7 drafted and 2 ran out of eligibility. We will have one 6th year player come back and another 5th year player. What will happen to the rest that are trying to stay? Only time will tell. We will have several leave after fall I am sure but who knows where they will go. My thought is if you did not play last year there is very little chance you are playing this year unless you were sitting behind a senior and they are not bringing in a juco, transfer portal, or freshman replacement. We will have several guys who did not play last year and will not play this year with the ones coming in.
My kid's hs teammate decommitted from a HA to a P5. He definitely has the chops to play at that level and great kid overall. I know that this is probably a rare event given the current times, did anyone else have similar experiences?
On a side note, the kid has 2 regional tourneys left and a org sponsored showcase that he is going to participate in then it is over. He will be playing fall ball but has not committed to a team as his current coaches may not do it. His future college coach hooked him up with an area wood bat league team for next summer, the kid is excited about it, me and the better half will support it and may even make the several hour drive to watch a game and maybe sneak in a B&B. We secretly worry about the host family living arrangements as he lives like a slob with us so hopefully he will not bring the bad habits over to them.
It feels like everyday for the last 3 weeks that I see some 2022 that I know announcing a commitment.
I'm glad to hear that because it's still largely crickets around here. Still trying to figure out if its because offers are slim or kids are holding out for "better" offers. For whatever its worth, I do feel the 2022 class around here doesn't generally seem to have much of a sense of urgency. To each their own, but I can't imagine not having one right now. Maybe they know something I don't. Wouldn't be the first or last time.
Yes, seems like lots of commitments around me (same area as Francis and 2022NYC) I even saw a few 2021 commitments..
I know there are several in my kid's org who will be making the standard social media announcements on their commitment. It is great to know opportunities are still available in my area. At the risk of being a blowhard, this has been such a transformative year for our kids. I am glad to see kids who did not reclass stick it out and got rewarded with that decision. I look forward to reading about the next set of challenges they face in this shortening journey. My kid landed a job at a local restaurant and to my joy opened a savings account and wants to save money for living away next summer playing ball and of course for college....but he also annouced a girlfriend and pierced his ears...the crushing effects of the universe balancing itself on mom and dad.
The girl thing could be a thread by itself. It's unavoidable, certainly understandable, etc. But, it's a distraction and a potential derailment albeit partial or full.
Yes. It is a walking on eggshells discussion at home. He introduced her as a "friend" to mom via facetime...a solid strategy of gaining mom's approval first given mom can be like a pistachio nut with no gap in the shell. I get crickets from him about her, but we have silent understanding. He is able to manage this juggling act, we will see how this plays out when with school starts.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
100% Danj, 100%. Great post.
@fenwaysouth posted:100% Danj, 100%. Great post.
That is the perfect post for any discussion where the presentation of facts by one side of the debate is countered with a response from the other side based on feelings.
This is no doubt that facts can absolutely poke all kinds of holes in one's feelings. As I am a highly emotional individual (enFp for anyone familiar with Myers Briggs), I struggled earlier in my life when facts would relentlessly show up to erode conclusions I came to based mostly on my feelings. I'm not able to turn my feelings off, but these days I work to seek facts that support my feelings and I end up with some hybrid of the 2. But its always the case that I feel better about my arguments and conclusions when I gather as many facts as I can.
Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
@d-mac posted:Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
It’s not risky if he looked at the list of returning players, transfers, committed recruits and realized his odds of getting on the field are slim.
Just putting this out there...girlfriends or boyfriends are like any other friend. They can either stabilize and help keep his/her head on straight or they can be a distraction. The reason they get a bad rap is that they have an exaggerated influence but it can be good or bad. I've watched my daughter and her boyfriend (both P5 D1 athletes--basketball and football) and if anything, his grades and his motivation with internships/jobs and on the field has improved since they started dating. The key to me is does the girlfriend or boyfriend has their own life and motivation or are they just hanging on? @Francis7 is right...probably it's own thread.
@d-mac posted:Friend of ours (2022) decommitted this week with nothing lined up. Been committed for a year to a D1. Seems like a risky move.
If I had to guess I would bet it wasn’t the player’s idea.
@adbono posted:If I had to guess I would bet it wasn’t the player’s idea.
This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
@d-mac posted:This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
Well then, that’s put it right in the “you never know” category. Hopefully it works out.
@d-mac posted:This was 100% the player and family making the decision. Decided it was too far away.
Sounds more like a “cold feet, what if I don’t get on the field” reason.
A friend, former teammate did this. He made his decision a week before school started. The state university program was happy to have him on short notice. After chewing up the local regional conference the coach left for a southern program and all but ordered the player to come with him. Now that he wasn’t the coach he told the player he was wasting his time and talent at that school. That school came in fourth at the CWS two years later.
The coach ultimately became a MLB Director of Player Personnel. The player became AAA Player of the Year before injuries blocked his path. Imagine stepping in a pothole getting out of your car at the airport on the way to the majors and badly spraining your ankle. Then the next year breaking your wrist getting hit by a pitch in the playoffs. The MLB team had told the player you’re up after the AAA playoffs. It went downhill from there. He never played a day in the majors.
Another roadblock before the injuries was his agent told him if he was included in the Rod Carew trade he was going to be the Twins starting left fielder. His MLB organization held out on trading him. They didn’t acquire Carew. Then the injuries started.
@DanJ posted:It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think. This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in. Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name. I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic. 90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC." X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state. Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents. So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.
I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents. But most don't like a lot of what I share. One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at. And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level. The market clearly decides this for the player. Not the kid's talents. Not the kid's measurables. Not the parent's assessments. Not where other players ended up. Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.
I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1. His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer. I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber. Absolutely worthy and capable in every way. But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer. None are "big" names. On paper it makes no sense. And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me. But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid. It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu. But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them. I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so. Even though there are zero signs one is coming.
Late to this post, and its tough analysis, but it's spot on. Unfortunately, whats transpiring is all a ripple effect from last year. My son and I had a stark conversation in Spring of '20 as the recruitment season was ramping up. It boiled down to, even in the HA arena, if you weren't on the top of a chart in '20, he almost certainly wasn't getting recruited to that program in '21 given all of the circumstances. It was clear as day that seniors were taking 5th years, coaches couldn't recruit in person, and the dead period made matters worse. So early on, he decided to just push hard for the best D3 school he could. Not an easy emotional call , given that he had made serious progress and by then was putting up D1 level metrics, but he had to be realistically analytical, and non-emotional. And even with that, it was a tough road because a LOT of D1 level talent made the same choice. So there was a downstream impact.
Unfortunately, this is looking like the case for most 2022's as well. Maybe things will start to clear by next year. But for now, the marketplace is simply reacting to an unprecedented seismic event. It's bad timing for those classes, but you have to be real about what's happened and the impact on the market. I wish everyone still uncommitted the bast of luck over these next few weeks and months. This can be the toughest part of the ride, so hang tight.