2022s - Summer and Fall 2021

My son's college went from 1 grad transfer and 6 seniors staying for a grad year in 2020 to no grad transfers and just one player staying for grad year (D3).   The team also saw two players quit in spring (odd for his school) due to a crowded roster and one torn labrum where the pitcher won't make it back.   So instead of 46 players, it's back down to 37-38 including 8 incoming Freshmen.   This may not be normal for all schools but I think rosters are normalizing.  That means, perhaps, normal recruiting classes going forward, however, if there is a continued backup in D1/D2 the classes in D2/D3 could be of better caliber.

My opinion is that fewer kids will seek the 5th year and just get on with life vs what we saw in 2020.  2020 5th year players were bigger in numbers likely due to fewer jobs available, the suddenness of losing senior years only 5 round MLB draft rounds  Those three issues don't exist anymore. 

I would think by 2023's recruiting will feel much more normal and certainly normal for 2024's.  Just my opinion.

I talked to a HC from a D2 school in RMAC this weekend at a showcase event about the ‘22 recruiting class. He said their roster is full and they aren’t recruiting any ‘22s. Every school is different but I’m hearing more stories like this than I am the opposite.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

My son's college went from 1 grad transfer and 6 seniors staying for a grad year in 2020 to no grad transfers and just one player staying for grad year (D3).   The team also saw two players quit in spring (odd for his school) due to a crowded roster and one torn labrum where the pitcher won't make it back.   So instead of 46 players, it's back down to 37-38 including 8 incoming Freshmen.   This may not be normal for all schools but I think rosters are normalizing.  That means, perhaps, normal recruiting classes going forward, however, if there is a continued backup in D1/D2 the classes in D2/D3 could be of better caliber.

My opinion is that fewer kids will seek the 5th year and just get on with life vs what we saw in 2020.  2020 5th year players were bigger in numbers likely due to fewer jobs available, the suddenness of losing senior years only 5 round MLB draft rounds  Those three issues don't exist anymore.

I would think by 2023's recruiting will feel much more normal and certainly normal for 2024's.  Just my opinion.

If I remember correctly your son is at a HA D3. It may be at this level where kids deal in reality on getting on with their life there are more job interview opportunities than last year.

If I was a college age kid looking for a job I would be freaked out by interviewing for a job via Zoom. It’s hard to read body language.

My daughter is five years removed from law school. A few months ago she interviewed for a very high paying job (major law firm, five years experience as prosecutor) without ever meeting the people in person or visiting the law office. It was all done by Zoom. Even with her experience and poise she said it was a little unnerving. I’m shocked the firm would offer what they did without ever meeting her in person.

@RJM posted:

Even with her experience and poise she said it was a little unnerving. I’m shocked the firm would offer what they did without ever meeting her in person.

I am sure they weren’t thrilled but what were the options? They had a need and obviously the needed revenue, if she is the wrong person she will released soon enough, if she is right it will be fine.

shit happened very day last year none of us would ever have dreamed of.

Danj, my ENFP bro!

I've posted most of this before, I think, but my 2021 college grad interviewed for 2020 summer internships with several financial firms via FaceTime because he was 6 time zones to their EAST, studying in Italy. Well, at least, he said that's what he was doing there.  

Anyway, he managed to get several internship offers via the FaceTime route, putting him WAY ahead of the curve for what was about to happen with COVID.  The company he chose honored their internship offer (when many similar companies were pulling the plug on internships) and he spent the 2020 summer doing the internship 6 time zones to the WEST from headquarters. All on Zoom.

Then they emailed him a real job offer, which he accepted on-line, in August, 2020. Then he studied his whole senior year on-line, like so many other kids.  Finally, he left home for the East Coast and real life in about a month ago and started working in an office that has essentially been deserted.  Practically everyone is still working from home. He STILL hasn't met his boss face-to-face.  The office was supposed to fully open in a month but the current situation may prevent that from happening.

I agree with RJM. I don't know how you hire someone via Zoom.  But, I also don't think what happened to my son is gonna stop.  Zoom/video is just too convenient and cheap to use, and I think it'll continue being a basic method for recruiting unless the hires consistently turn out badly,

Back to the OT, as far as my 2022 D3 is concerned, he's received some offers that are very appealing. What's unclear to us at this point is if those offers will have a shorter shelf life than the offers his older two brothers got.

I'm nervous about it.  I want him to get to at least mid September before he pulls an ED trigger. I think it's gonna take that long for coach's supports to manifest themselves, but I would understand why some coaches would want to get those commitments lined up asap.

@old_school posted:

I am sure they weren’t thrilled but what were the options? They had a need and obviously the needed revenue, if she is the wrong person she will released soon enough, if she is right it will be fine.

shit happened very day last year none of us would ever have dreamed of.

She was heavily recommended by a third party. She won’t be in a courtroom very often anymore.  As a prosecutor her conviction rate was high along with some very high profile convictions.

@adbono posted:

I talked to a HC from a D2 school in RMAC this weekend at a showcase event about the ‘22 recruiting class. He said their roster is full and they aren’t recruiting any ‘22s. Every school is different but I’m hearing more stories like this than I am the opposite.

If not full then close to being full except for maybe a stud who luckily falls to them. Signing day is 3 months away. I doubt many D1 and D2 schools are still looking for many 22's at this point.

@RJM posted:

She was heavily recommended by a third party. She won’t be in a courtroom very often anymore.  As a prosecutor her conviction rate was high along with some very high profile convictions.

there ya go, heavily recommended by a trusted someone is always priceless and last year even more so! good for her.

Son's teammate (2022) was scheduled to visit a PSAC contender and was told the morning of his visit that they were full and not to make the trip.

Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist.  Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly.  I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right?  I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year.  That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players. 

In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete).   How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball?  A good portion I would guess.  Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023. 

I have no skin in the game.... just observations.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist.  Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly.  I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right?  I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year.  That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players.

In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete).   How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball?  A good portion I would guess.  Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023.

I have no skin in the game.... just observations.

Let me clarify. One particular D2 coach told me that his existing roster was completely full and therefore they were not recruiting any 2022 players. So, it wasn’t that they were done with their class of 2022 recruiting, it was that there will be no 2022 recruiting class at that school whatsoever. I recognize that this is an extreme case but I was shocked by it.

@adbono posted:

Let me clarify. One particular D2 coach told me that his existing roster was completely full and therefore they were not recruiting any 2022 players. So, it wasn’t that they were done with their class of 2022 recruiting, it was that there will be no 2022 recruiting class at that school whatsoever. I recognize that this is an extreme case but I was shocked by it.

I think this is a first and most likely a last!!

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Just for clarity D2 2022 recruiting for the most part appears over as Freshman classes are full? I think that is the gist.  Adbono's post almost made it seem like they didn't recruit incoming 2022's but I think I read that incorrectly.  I assume this is unusual for D2's to be basically complete with 2022's here in early August - right?  I do think things will start to normalize for 2023's based on my earlier post but one thing I didn't mention was the new ability for one-time transfers without sitting out a year.  That is likely a big impact for 2022's, maybe more so than the actual extra years of eligibility granted to the current college players.

In the D1 Baseball Transfer tracker looks like 25% of the 2,000 found new homes (I am sure it is not complete).   How many of those that didn't get to transfer will give up baseball?  A good portion I would guess.  Perhaps the situation is not as bad for 2023.

I have no skin in the game.... just observations.

The situation I reported was that their current 2022 class had filled up and that they were not taking any more 2022's.  Ad's example is extreme and surprising, but not the same situation as the PSAC school.

@chazball posted:

The situation I reported was that their current 2022 class had filled up and that they were not taking any more 2022's.  Ad's example is extreme and surprising, but not the same situation as the PSAC school.

Yes, but I think we are all saying the same thing one way or another - opportunities are limited for 2022s. So if you receive an offer that checks most of the boxes you best take it as opposed to hoping something better will come along.

@adbono posted:

Yes, but I think we are all saying the same thing one way or another - opportunities are limited for 2022s. So if you receive an offer that checks most of the boxes you best take it as opposed to hoping something better will come along.

Totally agree.  This is affecting my 2022 and the way that he looks at his HA D3 search.  Though it's early, he has gotten offers where the coaches are indeed talking about the timeline.  I understand that this is not usually the situation for HA D3's in August, but it is the situation for my son with these schools this year.

The worst thing that NCAA could do at this point is re-visit the One-Time free transfer rule which I understand they are considering doing.  This will allow the pool to be very murky for an extended period of time.  It would allow any player not happy with either playing time or position to move with no penalty.  If it is put into place as a permanent status it will change recruiting forever.  It would allow players to jump from one team to another and take spots quickly.  I know some will say coaches would not take these guys but I disagree.  We have the Friday starter from another SEC school coming, the Saturday freshman starter from a very good mid-major coming, and the starting catcher from another P5 conference coming.  We were also very close to getting the starting catcher from another SEC school but he decided to go pro at the last minute.

@chazball posted:

Totally agree.  This is affecting my 2022 and the way that he looks at his HA D3 search.  Though it's early, he has gotten offers where the coaches are indeed talking about the timeline.  I understand that this is not usually the situation for HA D3's in August, but it is the situation for my son with these schools this year.

Chaz, what kind of timeline are they giving your son? Is it about the same for each offer?

Thx

@old_school posted:

I think this is a first and most likely a last!!

Could be as it relates to recruiting as a whole. But in terms of HS kids - I think their road is tougher than ever before. Which is why (unless they are HA) I advise so many to go the JuCo route. A couple of months ago a RC at a D1 Southland Conference school told me they were not recruiting any 2022 HS kids - only JuCo and players out of the transfer portal. His reasoning was that historically HS players that have come in as freshmen aren’t yet good enough to help them win. So they don’t play, get pissed about not playing, and turn into problems in the locker room. Instead of continuing to deal with that situation (which isn’t likely to change) they have opted to recruit experienced college players with proven performance on their resumes as long as that option is available to them. It’s hard to argue with that logic.

Just a different D2 sample: son is attending a smaller showcase here in GA this weekend. 11 D2 colleges are slated to be there. Checking the commit info on PG for the 11, only two of them had any commit listed for 2022. For 2021, the colleges ranged from 4 to 12 commits. Yes, that info is not 100% accurate, but it's also indicative that opportunities may remain at the D2 level in some regions.

As an aside, of the six NAIA colleges attending, only one has a commit. Of the three D3, only one commit there. Six D1 colleges, most are full, but two of the mid-majors have 6 or fewer commits (compared to a dozen or so in past years).

Fortunately there are several players in my kid's org who are in contact with the local D2s by me. I think those schools prefer locals so it could be the reason for their recruitment availability.

For 21’s (my son), 22’s and 23’s- if you have the talent, seems to be a good time to target D1 schools that don’t have graduate programs. You’ll have a higher likelihood of getting on the field (no grad transfers, no 5th years), proving yourself, and maybe even transferring later to a higher conference if that makes sense. Think schools like Davidson, Holy Cross etc. No big scholarship money at many of those schools but you’ll get the chance to make a name for yourself.

If you’re wondering about timing and commitments for the class of 2022, here’s some data.

8 months ago, I took the Class of 2022 top catchers rankings lists in my state for both PG and PBR and did a cross reference to come up with an overall “Top 23” list.

It really wasn’t hard since the same kids were basically at the top of both lists, some kids made both lists somewhere, or, if they only made one list but were high up on that one list, they made the Top 23.

It’s not a perfect list because it’s not a perfect method.  But, it’s a fair list and I doubt any of the top 2022 C’s in our state are missing.  For sure, the kids all have the size and metrics.  And, they play on good, competitive, teams.  There’s no question that they are all legitimate college prospects.

Today, 8 months later, I looked at the list and did a little research.  (Thanks to google, PG and PBR, it’s not really hard research and very quick to do.)

Two of the Top 23 have reclassed – bringing the total to 21.  And, 12 of the 21 are now committed.  (This leaves 9 not committed.)

But, I did rank the 23, using a weighted system off the PG and PBR rankings.  And, for what it’s worth, if you just look at the TOP SIXTEEN – then one reclassed and 12 of the remaining 15 are all committed.

That’s 80% of the Top 15 2022s in my state at C being committed as of today, FWIW.

And, yeah, I was a little bored today and had some free time.

Wouldn’t you expect the top 80% of ‘22s to be committed. The rest will likely end up at D3’s or JuCos.

@RJM posted:

Wouldn’t you expect the top 80% of ‘22s to be committed. The rest will likely end up at D3’s or JuCos.

Yeah. I think the findings validate the rankings by PG and PBR.

FWIW, of the 12 committed...

One is a Juco, one is a D3, one is a D2, and nine are D1. (Seven of the nine are not major D1 programs.)

Are these C's in good programs? If so, I am sure they will help them out. My kid's org is hosting a showcase event with the schools they work with.

@2022NYC posted:

Are these C's in good programs? If so, I am sure they will help them out. My kid's org is hosting a showcase event with the schools they work with.

Yup. They are with teams that every knows, for the most part, and that compete well at a higher level.

If you are in Florida and want to get familiar with what good JuCo baseball looks like, check out any of these games this fall :