High School ball is just about over for the 2022s and summer travel is about to begin or recently started. The 2022s can sign their NLI in 5 months.
At what point, between now and the fall, is it imperative to the 2022 that he was a legitimate offer to accept?
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That's the million dollar question for 22s. Here HS ball ended 3 weeks ago, so legion and travel ball is in full swing. My son is a 2021, but should be a 22 by age, so he has lots of uncommitted 22 buddies gunning right now for offers.
I got myself all worried for nothing when it came to 2021s late last summer and into the fall. Basically every 2021 around here who wanted to play college baseball is getting the opportunity. Even some I never thought were college-caliber at all. We're even still seeing commitments trickle in for 21s. So I am not going to get worked up over the 22s around here. Having said that...
Offers for 22s around here stopped last winter (Nov/Dec). A couple few D1 offers accepted last fall and then one D2 in December. Then it went completely dormant until April when a lone 22 RHP here committed to a local mid major D1. Granted, we're in Nebraska, but one 2022 commitment thus far for the year won't give you warm fuzzies. Obviously the dead period was still in effect until just now, so I am expecting things to pick up here shortly. But how well things will pick up, remains to be seen. With what happened with the 2021s around here, I am optimistic for the 22s, but I also fear for the potential of the "delayed carnage." That the 22s might still end up taking the worst beating of all the classes due to Covid et al. We'll have a much better idea here in the next 90ish days or so...
D3 & JUCO offers typically come in between September and December of the players high school Senior Year
@DanJ posted:I am optimistic for the 22s, but I also fear for the potential of the "delayed carnage." That the 22s might still end up taking the worst beating of all the classes due to Covid et al. We'll have a much better idea here in the next 90ish days or so...
My 22's travel team has 14 on it. Two are committed already. Of the other 12, most have the skills and talent to play college baseball somewhere. But, I don't think many have offers yet - or at least not the offers that they want.
I agree that the next 90 days are going to be telling.
Same here. 22 on our roster and 4 committed to D1 plus 1 is going to a JC (by choice). In a normal year a team like ours would have one half of the kids committed or in serious conversations, and based on the parents comments at our scrimmage last week, that is not the case. The other half would usually get their offer during fall ball.
Org director said it will just take more time than normal as only the top tier or special exceptions (connections to school as an example) have committed. We shall see. Not getting worried yet, but come see me in August.
Maybe the 22s are the group to get screwed by the perfect storm?
Lots of 2020's red shirted?
~1900 in the transfer portal?
2019s and 2018s got a extra year of eligibility.
2021s reclassing to become 2022s (at least in NJ with the Sarlo rule)
There's a lot working against the 22s that no one expected back in 2019.
'22s are in a weird spot because of the portal and reclassification. My son bit early on an offer and this uncertainty was a factor he considered before accepting. He's got one teammate who's twisting in the wind and probably should have found a home by now (D1-ish measurables and performance by my untrained eye).
plus there are many JUCO players ready to move on and are finding limited options as well.
@old_school posted:plus there are many JUCO players ready to move on and are finding limited options as well.
Good point
@OskiSD posted:'22s are in a weird spot because of the portal and reclassification. My son bit early on an offer and this uncertainty was a factor he considered before accepting. He's got one teammate who's twisting in the wind and probably should have found a home by now (D1-ish measurables and performance by my untrained eye).
Yeah. If I were a player and had an offer that checked all the boxes, I wouldn't sleep on it now. No need to wait.
Completely agree. Especially if it's a JUCO offer that checks all the most important boxes. My 2021 was one of those D1-ish prospects a year ago. He got a really good JUCO offer right about 12 months ago that came with a 30-day clock, but my son was also working closely with 2 D1s. The JUCO offer checked EVERY box except that it didn't say "D1" on it. My son spent about 2 weeks (of the 30 days) continuing with his travel team and trying to make one last strong push for the D1s to offer. He actually went on a tear for those 2 weeks. Ended up making an all-tourney team alongside 8-9 D1 commits. And we got great video of that 2-week tear. After those 2 weeks, he called his top 2 D1 targets to find out exactly where they were at with him. They didn't have anything to offer him at that time, so as soon as those 2 calls were over, he committed to the JUCO. Time will prove to my son it was one the best decisions he ever made.
On a side note, my son has stayed in contact with the RCs from his top 2 D1 targets. In fact, he's heading down to do one of their camps next month. Committing JUCO doesn't end the recruiting process; it's simply an extension...
Smart move by your son @OskiSD. Regarding the situation for non committed 2022's:
Assume that the 2022 would be an average D1 recruit pre-pandemic. He is in a WAY worse situation from a recruiting AND a potential playing position post pandemic. Especially if he is average to below average academically. Everyone who played college ball in 19/20 gets a bonus year of eligibility so there are now ~ 1500 more D1 players or more each season for the next 4 years that can play another year IF they want to. We are talking every "senior" in 20/21, 21/22, 22/23, and 23/24. Figure on average there are 3 Sr arms and 3 position playing regulars on each team. Then assume that at least 1 player hangs it up and there are 300+ D1 teams gets you to ~ 1500 per year. That does not include any elite D2 or D3 players that are most likely good enough to contribute to the bottom half of D1 as an arm, position player, or backup.
Next look at ALL the kids that have practiced/played baseball and lifted 40+ hours a week in JUCO this season. Unless things have changed I believe that last fall that JUCO said that the 20/21 season would not count eligibility wise. HS classes of 2019 & 2020 who attended JUCO can be classified as Freshman this upcoming year according to the NCAA along with the kids graduating this month.
Imagine you are a college coach. Generally you keep your job if you win and you lose it if you lose. Your choice is between 2 players (assuming that they are similar human beings): Choice #1 is a 20 year old man who has played against other men the last 2 years and Choice #2 is an 18 year old soon to be man who has played against other kids his age the last 2 years. Who do you choose?
I crappy as it is of me, I'm hoping for a lot of "carnage" this year that will lead to a fair amount of kids moving on with adult life (and hanging up their cleats). It's horrible I know. But without a fair number of kids calling it quits 2022s are in a horrible position. Josh Rudd nailed it when he said we were the eye of the hurricane.
@used2lurk great way of helping frame all that up. I think there are lot of people out there that have never wanted to crunch the numbers as you just did. Many prefer to blindly believe their son will prevail (as he has since age 8 up through high school).
You are correct that JUCO handed out 2 free years. My son is a 2021 heading to a JUCO this fall. In the spring of 2019 in HS, he played with a 2019 kid who committed to a perennial top 20 JUCO program (often top 10) 15 minutes from here. Spent the last 2 years training and playing there. Now he's heading east to a top level D1 who plays in the AAC. Both he (2019) and my son (2021) now have 4 years of eligibility remaining. What a great friggin' time to be a D1 coach, huh? And a 2019 who went the JUCO route.
@LousyLefty I am not sure I'd worry about 2022s in that sense. While there are legitimate reasons to be concerned, the "we've got it worst" award has proven to be a traveling trophy. Everybody remember when the 2020s were getting absolutely hosed due to Covid? That only lasted so long before the 2021s dethroned the 2020s and we all had a pity party for the 2021s as the newer even more hosed class. But that eventually fell out of fashion, so today's flavor is the 2022s. I am not arguing the 2022s aren't hosed, but don't be surprised if the 2023s knock off the 2022s some time after Christmas...
@DanJ worst game of "hold my beer" I've ever seen.
@DanJ and @LousyLefty it's like a reverse game of "when I was your age...." Each class has been impacted in different and sometimes unpredictable ways. I do hope that some of the worst of it is mitigated by guys getting amazing jobs and deciding to leave baseball on their own terms.
If the crowd here at PBR National Program Invitational is any indicator, plenty of interest remains in 2022s. Around a dozen mid-to-P5 teams watching the 17U game I’m currently attending here. Even an Ivy.
Edited to add - closer to 18 by the end. 2 Ivies and 2 SEC schools among them.
I too saw lots of scouts coaches at Lakepoint from P5, Ivey and Patriot League along with many mid major D1 programs. Plenty of interest in 2022’s as those were the games they were watching from what I saw.
I'm feeling a glimmer of hope. These coaches have to know there are kids out there who might be better at playing baseball than playing the recruiting game.
