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I know several kids who didn't jump in the transfer portal that will have to go down if they want to play.  I think this year, greater than any other I remember there are a lot of conversations during the summer about next spring's picture for current players.  This is the year that a player needed to have a good summer.  I know a few who made the choice to not play summer ball after not playing this fall and it has bitten them.  Rosters are filling up because there are a lot of really good players in the transfer portal from big schools that played last year and are leaving where they were.  Everybody better have a backup plan for this fall and winter.  I think 2022's will be fine but they not be where they thought they would be.  There will be some ponds that were correct, in our analogy of fish in the right pond, that all of a sudden have some really big fish dumped in them.

It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think.  This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in.   Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name.  I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic.  90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC."  X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state.  Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents.  So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.

I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents.  But most don't like a lot of what I share.  One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at.  And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level.  The market clearly decides this for the player.  Not the kid's talents.  Not the kid's measurables.  Not the parent's assessments.  Not where other players ended up.  Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.

I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1.  His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer.  I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber.  Absolutely worthy and capable in every way.  But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer.  None are "big" names.  On paper it makes no sense.  And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me.  But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid.  It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu.  But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them.  I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so.  Even though there are zero signs one is coming.

Last edited by DanJ
@DanJ posted:

One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at.  And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level.  The market clearly decides this for the player.  Not the kid's talents.  Not the kid's measurables.  Not the parent's assessments.  Not where other players ended up.  Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.

I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1.  His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer.  I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber.  Absolutely worthy and capable in every way.  But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer.  None are "big" names.  On paper it makes no sense.  And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me.  But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid.  It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu.  But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them.  I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so.  Even though there are zero signs one is coming.

Unfortunately for my own 2022, this makes complete economic sense. The recruiting market is currently glutted.

@DanJ posted:

It's been very quiet here in our area, but the next 4 weeks will be the most telling I think.  This is right around the time a year ago when commitments started coming in.   Reality is setting in for lots of 2022s that A) they will not play D1 and B) they will not be playing (at least initially) for a program with a "big" name.  I've said it here before, but I firmly believe our area has an epidemic.  90%+ of kids around here will tell you "I want to go D1, but if that doesn't happen, I'll go to XCC."  X being a national powerhouse Juco that is 15 minutes away in the neighboring state.  Not only do these kids believe it, so do their parents.  So, yeah, this is the time of reckoning for 2022s around here.

I've learned a TON from HSBBW and my own experiences of my 2021's recruiting journey and I try to share as much of it with 2022 parents.  But most don't like a lot of what I share.  One point that's come up a lot lately is the fact that the MARKET decides what level a kid is going to play at.  And at how "good" of a program he'll play at within that level.  The market clearly decides this for the player.  Not the kid's talents.  Not the kid's measurables.  Not the parent's assessments.  Not where other players ended up.  Not where "subject matter experts" say you're worthy of.

I know a 2022 father whose position player son absolutely is capable of playing D1.  His measurables are all D1 per all the standard charts, his height and weight are full on D1 (he looks the part - is highly projectible), and he's producing large numbers this summer.  I - and many others - look at everything he has and brings to the table and feel VERY confident he is D1 caliber.  Absolutely worthy and capable in every way.  But to date, he's got one NAIA, one D1 Juco and one D2 Juco offer.  None are "big" names.  On paper it makes no sense.  And as much as I've learned, it surprises even me.  But the cold, hard, unfortunate reality is that the market has set the value of this kid.  It's no different than oil or lobster on a restaurant menu.  But both kids and parents REALLY struggle to accept the value the market assesses of them.  I think many are pinning their hopes to a sudden market correction in the next month or so.  Even though there are zero signs one is coming.

This is a really good post and I suggest that everyone that it applies to read it again & again. It’s spot on. The market dictates where a player belongs. It’s basic economics - plain and simple.

Not trying to start anything I just knew they had 40 on the roster at one point and now it shows 37.

We kept 46 on posted roster but that included guys who were hurt and some who redshirted early and were staying.  We have had  5 go in transfer portal and 2 others that are going to juco's this year.  7 drafted and 2 ran out of eligibility.  We will have one 6th year player come back and another 5th year player.  What will happen to the rest that are trying to stay?  Only time will tell.  We will have several leave after fall I am sure but who knows where they will go.  My thought is if you did not play last year there is very little chance you are playing this year unless you were sitting behind a senior and they are not bringing in a juco, transfer portal, or freshman replacement.  We will have several guys who did not play last year and will not play this year with the ones coming in.

Last edited by PitchingFan

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