2024 RHP from CA not playing much. Possible D1/P5 recruit. What to do?

What is his current height, weight and confirmed fastball velocity?

As a PO, time is on his side.  The best thing he can do is work on strength and athleticism.  Go play when it opens up and when he starts touching 90 regularly the P5 schools will be ready and willing to talk.  

If he is a P5 prospect, he will have no problem getting on a top travel team that has the contacts and credibility to call any college coach on your son’s  behalf.

***(Been spending lots of time in the gym and at lessons with occasional team practice, so not all is lost.)***

Keep doing what your doing!   One thing at a time.  If he really develops the velo needed for d1 pitching things will sort themselves out. No doubt Covid throws a wrinkle in the mix, but if Cali always HS baseball this spring I would recommend focusing on making the team. Depending on the talent level/depth, doing this as a freshman is not an easy accomplishment.

Get him to some showcases (if his FB veto is in the top percentage range).  Otherwise, get stronger, work on control and then go to showcases.

He's 6 ft, 165 or so. Tall and thin.

Honestly don't know his velo, and yes, we own a pocket radar. Stupid, I know. (We've been focused on getting his older siblings into college. Need some slack here!)

Coach consensus is low-mid 80s (last confirmed during a game from a year ago was 78mph), but the main thing is he has good command (FB, change, curve, slider) and it all seems effortless for him. In a recent local scrimmage he struck out nearly the entire JV team from his HS (7 Ks). But his HS mandates that freshman play only on the frosh team. So while we don't expect he'll have any problem making the team, short term goal is to be more than a PO the first year.

Thank you for the advice. It's very reassuring!

The lack of time on the mound in the last year might be a huge blessing for him going forwards.  The game is riddled with young pitchers who have Tommy John scars.

Give him time to develop.  He’s not truly a P5 guy until he’s throwing in the 90’s.  Have him work with a credible throwing/pitching coach to teach him not only proper mechanics but proper arm care, and get him with a strength coach who can help him build his lower half, which will help his velocity

Best of luck to him and you!

@DD 2024 posted:

Son is a 2024 RHP/CIF. Been told several times he is likely a high level D1 recruit as a PO.

Who told you?  Are they knowledgable about recruiting?  If so, ask them what you should do.  Ask them very specifically what his timetable is, and how they can help him.

I'm a bit cynical; "could be D1 if he develops" is a good way to keep you hooked on doing showcases and travel teams that might ultimately not be the most appropriate.  At least, go into those things with your eyes open.

P5s and other top D1s recruit from freshman year forward.  Most everyone else recruits summer after junior year of HS.

Got it. Thanks for the heads up.

The feedback came from 3 different coaches on 2 different clubs.

Former MiLB player, drafted in the 14th round: "He's a D1 pitcher."

Former MiLB player, drafted in the 2nd round: "He's a high level D1 pitcher."

Former MLB catcher and professional agent: "He's the real deal. Sky's the limit."

Was thinking of asking the agent what the next steps might be.

I would say, you can't control it.  The only thing you can control is development. Keep working hard.  There are a million variables.  We didn't know my son was a D1 pitcher until a lot of D1 schools started calling him.

Hesitated asking because we're changing clubs (going to a bigger, Nationally-known program), but haven't told the old club yet. So the timing is awkward...do we ask advice from people we know now, or wait a few months and ask the new coaches, who've placed dozens of players into college and the minor leagues.

https://community.hsbaseballwe...34#68176099168033334

Yes, this is similar to the mindset we have.

@22and25 posted:

.......................................

  The best thing he can do is work on strength and athleticism.

If he is a P5 prospect, he will have no problem getting on a top travel team that has the contacts and credibility to call any college coach on your son’s  behalf.

Bingo, yatzee!  You need to put this in the hands of the travel team organization whom you will be paying (probably through the nose) to do all the things you are worried about.   Sit down with the travel coach and map out a strategy for his target schools, exposure and development.  This is what they do, and this is what you are paying them to do.   

Monitor your son's progress and the travel teams action items.  Follow up as needed, and begin learning as much as you possibly can about college baseball recruiting.   In the mean time, your son needs to focus on athleticism, strength and (drum roll....please) academics.

Also, don't believe the hype that these former MiLB/MLB players are throwing his way.  He is a high school freshmen.   If you are hearing that fine, but don't pass it on to him.   You don't want him thinking at a very young age that he can get by on his baseball talent alone.  There is so much more to it.  Talented players gets outworked every day by hungrier less talented players.   Just my two cents....

Good luck!

@DD 2024 posted:

Hesitated asking because we're changing clubs (going to a bigger, Nationally-known program), but haven't told the old club yet. So the timing is awkward...do we ask advice from people we know now, or wait a few months and ask the new coaches, who've placed dozens of players into college and the minor leagues.

My opinion, don't worry about it. Keep doing what he is doing, hopefully he will be playing soon. Time is on his side for the moment.  Perhaps a PG showcase will open the door.  Forget about what others say, you want that rating, eventually.

Your son can begin to do research on where he may want to play and the cost of those universities. You can help him with this task. By next summer he should have sent coaches a letter of introduction (email) and his schedule. Don't forget to ask about camps.

A 6f RHP is not necessarily a P5 recruit to me, because you left out the velo part.

Awesome. Thank you. Appreciate all the input.

Our first concern was, and always will be, academics. He's a stellar student and a great test taker, so we have high expectations in that department, baseball or no baseball.

Our next concern, about this time last year, was: does he want it? After pounding through lessons and a year of 5 days/week in the gym with very little playing time (1 tournament since the shutdown last March), the answer is clearly yes.

Next concern was: is he getting good instruction? Took a while, but we found someone to teach him how to pitch: spin, pitch sequence, and arm care. One of his coaches offered input wrt to speed, which in his case translates to using his legs more. Have made significant progress on both of these.

Next, and most recent concern, is: how to market his abilities, esp given California and covid? Lack of playing time and even scrimmage time means we don't have any recent velo readings. Again, the coaches are saying low-mid 80s right now, but I really have no idea. It could be 80, could be 90. No one has gunned him.

Seems most of the positive/D1-type comments we've gotten to date reflect his projectability...pitching is just so easy for him. Throws are accurate and look effortless. His command is stellar.

Again, I will come back with a velo reading ASAP. Thanks all. So helpful.

2024;

since you live 15 miles from Stanford, why not enroll in one of the Stanford's camp at at San Mateo JC?

Do you watch the JC games?

Bob

@DD 2025

You don't have to rush with the  gun reading. Your son is young. Again he has time.  I dont believe in putting the gun on pitchers too soon. He  probably is projectable due to height. Velocity and 3,4 offerings (pitches) for P5 coaches will come.

FWIW, at your sons age, my pitcher was same height and the first time they put the radar gun on him he was low 80s. Three years later he was at 90. 

So sit back at relax and enjoy!

@Consultant posted:

2024;

since you live 15 miles from Stanford, why not enroll in one of the Stanford's camp at at San Mateo JC?

Do you watch the JC games?

Bob

Bob,

Great idea for next summer!

Low-mid 80's RHP = keep grinding.  by waiting you can pick from the schools that align best with his final ability.  A bubble guy that reaches up For a better school Sits on the bench for 4 years   if the velo climbs as your sources predict, there will still be spots made available.  And if those guys are wrong and he's stays in the low 80s He's gonna be miserable at the kind of schools that would offer him as a 2024.

Are you confusing “potential to be a D1 prospect” with “he’s a D1 prospect?” I’ve never heard of anyone throwing 80 being a D1 prospect.

There are also various levels of D1 prospect. A major conference/other top competitive programs are looking for a pitcher who will touch 90. A bottom 100 (there are 300 D1’s) D1 may be looking for 85 who can throw strikes.

Hitting 80 heading into freshman year is promising. But he has to improve his velocity consistently over the next two years. He also has room to fill out. How much more is he expected to grow?

The way to know a player is a D1 prospect is travel teams with reputations for placing most or all of their players in D1 ball are recruiting him. Other teams will ask him to guest when available.

@RJM posted:

Are you confusing “potential to be a D1 prospect” with “he’s a D1 prospect?” I’ve never heard of anyone throwing 80 being a D1 prospect.

There are also various levels of D1 prospect. A major conference/other top competitive programs are looking for a pitcher who will touch 90. A bottom 100 (there are 300 D1’s) D1 may be looking for 85 who can throw strikes.

Hitting 80 heading into freshman year is promising. But he has to improve his velocity consistently over the next two years. He also has room to fill out. How much more is he expected to grow?

The way to know a player is a D1 prospect is travel teams with reputations for placing most or all of their players in D1 ball are recruiting him. Other teams will ask him to guest when available.

Good question. I don't fully know.

One of his coaches suggested he start to target the Ivy League. Another suggested Stanford, which, yes, is close by.

His projection is 6'2" maybe 6'3".

Thanks re: travel ball recruiting. I'll keep that in mind. Great advice. Right now, there are 3 clubs asking about his availability for summer. 2 of them are national-level.

@bandera posted:

Low-mid 80's RHP = keep grinding.  by waiting you can pick from the schools that align best with his final ability.  A bubble guy that reaches up For a better school Sits on the bench for 4 years   if the velo climbs as your sources predict, there will still be spots made available.  And if those guys are wrong and he's stays in the low 80s He's gonna be miserable at the kind of schools that would offer him as a 2024.

100%. My daughter is also a RHP/1B who can smack it. She's headed to a D3 school this fall. Somewhere where she will play every inning of every game. Playing time is everything.

@Consultant posted:

2024;

since you live 15 miles from Stanford, why not enroll in one of the Stanford's camp at at San Mateo JC?

Do you watch the JC games?

Bob

Are those camps happening? So far I don't see anything.

We've been to several games at Stanford. Never to a JC game. Great suggestion!!

@TPM posted:

@DD 2025

You don't have to rush with the  gun reading. Your son is young. Again he has time.  I dont believe in putting the gun on pitchers too soon. He  probably is projectable due to height. Velocity and 3,4 offerings (pitches) for P5 coaches will come.

FWIW, at your sons age, my pitcher was same height and the first time they put the radar gun on him he was low 80s. Three years later he was at 90.

So sit back at relax and enjoy!

Thanks. That's exactly what I was thinking!  How many 15 year olds throw 90mph??  I'm sure there are a few, but probably only a few. Most of the 100mph guys probably aren't even at 90mph yet at that age.

As for projectability, we've been told he has "arm talent", i.e. his mechanics from the waist up are nearly perfect. This has been a recurring comment since Little League.

@DD 2024 posted:

Good question. I don't fully know.

One of his coaches suggested he start to target the Ivy League. Another suggested Stanford, which, yes, is close by.

His projection is 6'2" maybe 6'3".

Thanks re: travel ball recruiting. I'll keep that in mind. Great advice. Right now, there are 3 clubs asking about his availability for summer. 2 of them are national-level.

There are active posters with kids who pitched at Ivies. I believe they will tell you it’s a little early to show to Ivies. It’s a little early to show anywhere unless the player is close to the metrics they’re looking for, These posters can really help you with the Ivy angle.

DD 2024 - I sent you a PM in response to RJM's comment above.  PMs are found in the top right corner.  Click on your Avatar, and you should see it.

My son was in the mid/upper 70's as a HS freshman....and was 5'6 and maybe 110 at the time.  Ended up 6', 170 and was upper 80's to 90 the summer after his junior year.  At that size, he was on the radar of mid-majors....but nothing higher.  a 6' - 6'2 RHP is going to need to be 90 to play for a mid-major and even higher to be at a top level D1.   The 2024's that are being recruited/offered by top level D1's are throwing mid-upper 80's in most cases.   At this point, until you have a verified velo sending emails/videos to coaches is probably not going to get you much interest.  Moving to a top level travel org will be a huge help.  Once they see your son and know what he has to offer, getting his name in front of schools will be much easier.  My son played for a top level org his junior summer and there were 50+ coaches at every game he threw that season.

@Buckeye 2015 posted:

My son was in the mid/upper 70's as a HS freshman....and was 5'6 and maybe 110 at the time.  Ended up 6', 170 and was upper 80's to 90 the summer after his junior year.  At that size, he was on the radar of mid-majors....but nothing higher.  a 6' - 6'2 RHP is going to need to be 90 to play for a mid-major and even higher to be at a top level D1.   The 2024's that are being recruited/offered by top level D1's are throwing mid-upper 80's in most cases.   At this point, until you have a verified velo sending emails/videos to coaches is probably not going to get you much interest.  Moving to a top level travel org will be a huge help.  Once they see your son and know what he has to offer, getting his name in front of schools will be much easier.  My son played for a top level org his junior summer and there were 50+ coaches at every game he threw that season.

Hey thanks. This is exactly the kind of advice I was looking for.

So 90 is the magic over/under.

The more you're over it - less need to market or worry about recruiting.

The more you are under it - have to work harder to get a spot.

Buckeye - where did your son go after HS?

@DD 2024 posted:

Hey thanks. This is exactly the kind of advice I was looking for.

So 90 is the magic over/under.

The more you're over it - less need to market or worry about recruiting.

The more you are under it - have to work harder to get a spot.

Buckeye - where did you son go after HS?

90 is a pretty common measuring stick but it is all relative to where you want to play and your expectations of playing time.  90 will be a Friday starter at many levels and a 4 year bench warmer at higher levels.

A top 25 ACC coach told my son very directly that to expect to play in the ACC, as a right handed pitcher, you need to be 92 plus with good stuff.  The key word there is “expect” to play.  Doesn’t mean they don’t take kids who haven’t touched 92 but the bulk of their innings are pitched by guys who at least touch that number.  He also told my son to be sure he chooses a school at a level where he can reasonably expect to play based on his stuff.  No competitor wants to sit on the bench.

to my line of thinking, if you are a mid-80's freshman you can find and accept a top tier school offer.  it's possible with the right connections.  if you DO get to the metrics they need, it works out great for the player and the school.  But if you don't develop into 90+, they turn you lose (either before the NLI or in December of your freshman year of college).  zero risk for them.  the player however has lost 3~4 years of developing relationships with other schools/coaches and has to find a new school in a very short time frame when most schools already have their recruiting class figured out.  this is a huge disadvantage for the player.

orgs want to push players to elite schools.  it's great marketing for them to get the next crop of players to join the organization.  that works out fine for pro prospects.  but when the player is a bubble player at that school, he is going to have a disappointing time there.  much better for the player to find the RIGHT fit.  a place where his talent gets him on the field in a reasonable amount of time ('reasonable' depends on your personal views).  a place where he gets a good education.  a place that develops and grows the player to the right path of adulthood.   JMHO.

@DD 2024 posted:

Hey thanks. This is exactly the kind of advice I was looking for.

So 90 is the magic over/under.

The more you're over it - less need to market or worry about recruiting.

The more you are under it - have to work harder to get a spot.

Buckeye - where did your son go after HS?

Bowling Green State University.  He was a reliever to start his freshman year....then moved to Saturday starter.  Started most of his sophomore year then was the closer his junior year....they only won 10 games....so not much "closing" was needed lol.  DH/1B his senior year.   Most of the starters in the MAC were 90-ish....with a few lefties that were 85-86.  Closers were 90+ in most cases.  We played a few P5's over the 4 years, but normally didn't see their top guys...but even the guys we saw were normally right around 90 if not more.  If your son ends up 6'5 or 6'6 it will be a completely recruiting scenario than if he is 6'1 or 6'2.  For whatever reason 6'6 and 90mph is a much bigger draw than 6' throwing the same lol

The height thing for pitchers was pretty remarkable when I started looking at “early commits.” With very few exceptions, there appears to be a bright line test right at 6’2”.

2024

Do you attend Serra or San Mateo HS? When our 16-18 year old Santa Rosa Team played San Mateo, it was a "war'!

Many games were decided by our pitchers, who had "accidental" control and "movement" on the fast ball. San Mateo Summer Team in one year had 4 players who played later in the MLB.

Bob

Things get tougher every year. More kids throw 90, more kids throw 95.  At my son’s D1 this fall, every freshman pitcher (9 of them) threw at least 94.  There are 24 pitchers on the roster, so  a good portion of them aren’t going to play.   You need velo but have to have more than that.

@bandera posted:

to my line of thinking, if you are a mid-80's freshman you can find and accept a top tier school offer.  it's possible with the right connections.  if you DO get to the metrics they need, it works out great for the player and the school.  But if you don't develop into 90+, they turn you lose (either before the NLI or in December of your freshman year of college).  zero risk for them.  the player however has lost 3~4 years of developing relationships with other schools/coaches and has to find a new school in a very short time frame when most schools already have their recruiting class figured out.  this is a huge disadvantage for the player.

orgs want to push players to elite schools.  it's great marketing for them to get the next crop of players to join the organization.  that works out fine for pro prospects.  but when the player is a bubble player at that school, he is going to have a disappointing time there.  much better for the player to find the RIGHT fit.  a place where his talent gets him on the field in a reasonable amount of time ('reasonable' depends on your personal views).  a place where he gets a good education.  a place that develops and grows the player to the right path of adulthood.   JMHO.

Great insight. Thank you.

So when do most D1 players commit? So much focus on the freshman and sophomore verbals, one would think there's nothing else.

@baseballhs posted:

Things get tougher every year. More kids throw 90, more kids throw 95.  At my son’s D1 this fall, every freshman pitcher (9 of them) threw at least 94.  There are 24 pitchers on the roster, so  a good portion of them aren’t going to play.   You need velo but have to have more than that.

Wow. Crap.

How much more?

Is this a P5 or mid-major?

You need command, movement, good breaking balls.  Two of the freshmen hit 97 in the fall.  It’s a tough landscape. It’s an upper level P5.

There might some value in polling the HSBBW population here.  A) did your kid ever garner comments like "He'll be D1" or "He's a D1 talent"?  B) did he end up going D1?

My kid sure got comments like that.  By just about every coach he played for.  One spent several years in the minors, is still a stud athlete and is quite possibly the smartest baseball mind I've ever come across.  So multiple people with resumes sent comments just like that our way and from a very young age on.  Just last November, my son signed his LOI to go play JUCO ball this fall.  He still has a shot at playing D1 ball after JUCO, but that's still TBD.  He did get some good interest from a couple D1 schools, but obviously it wasn't good enough.  In my mind, those comments you're hearing are cancerous.  Or at least CAN be.  When taken with some humility and humbleness, they can give you warm fuzzies.  And who doesn't like that?  But take them seriously and they'll have you straddling the fine line between optimism and entitlement.  My son ran in to at least some struggle with letting go of the bright lights of D1.  Thankfully, he was able do so and see the incredible opportunity that he DID have. 

One thing I don't see talked about much are grades.  Not specifics, anyway.  One of the biggest cliches (that is true) we all get early in the recruiting process is "grades are REALLY important."  Most parents I see respond by saying something like "oh, that's not a problem.  My son does really well in school. He's serious about his education."  But specifics seem to be something almost no one gets into.  My 2021 son's high school GPA is a 3.1 (out of 4.0), so a B/B+.  Guess what?  His grades were a concern for some - including the JUCO coach he's now set to play for.  I am by no means an expert, but from all I've gathered and experienced, you REALLY want to be 3.5 or higher (out of 4).  A 3.1 GPA will likely be more than enough to play D1 football, but baseball is a very different deal.  I'd argue that good grades handcuff a player.  They need to be GREAT or pretty close.  At least for position players.

@DD 2024 posted:

Great insight. Thank you.

So when do most D1 players commit? So much focus on the freshman and sophomore verbals, one would think there's nothing else.

Most of the D1 players(P5) that went to surrounding HS near me or I know committed in the Fall/Winter of their sophomore year. Keep in mind, they committed to schools like USC, Stanford, Vanderbilt. From what your describing your son like, these guys were like him. There are some exceptions. Couple players committed to P5 summer after junior year. Another Player near me was committed to USC and switched his commitment to Texas in fall of senior year. Another player was committed to UCLA and switched to Vanderbilt after the NLI signing. I also know of one similar to what your describing your son like who was committed to Stanford as a Sophmore and never signed any NLI. I’m assuming his grades went down. He’s a 2021 RHP 89-90 on the mound. Uncommitted now.

@DanJ posted:

There might some value in polling the HSBBW population here.  A) did your kid ever garner comments like "He'll be D1" or "He's a D1 talent"?  B) did he end up going D1?

My kid sure got comments like that.  By just about every coach he played for.  One spent several years in the minors, is still a stud athlete and is quite possibly the smartest baseball mind I've ever come across.  So multiple people with resumes sent comments just like that our way and from a very young age on.  Just last November, my son signed his LOI to go play JUCO ball this fall.  He still has a shot at playing D1 ball after JUCO, but that's still TBD.  He did get some good interest from a couple D1 schools, but obviously it wasn't good enough.  In my mind, those comments you're hearing are cancerous.  Or at least CAN be.  When taken with some humility and humbleness, they can give you warm fuzzies.  And who doesn't like that?  But take them seriously and they'll have you straddling the fine line between optimism and entitlement.  My son ran in to at least some struggle with letting go of the bright lights of D1.  Thankfully, he was able do so and see the incredible opportunity that he DID have.

Hey now that's great insight.

I have older kids who will play college sports. One of them dominated in 10U-12U and will go on to play D3 in college. It was very hard for us to scale down our expectations. Took years, but reality is here. And it's 100% fine. More than fine.

So maybe the question should be - what makes a D3 vs mid D1 vs high D1 vs pro player? One amazing pitch that can fool batters and a couple mediocre ones? Ability to mix pitches that all look the same at delivery? Change of speed? Two sets of pitches? Overpowering speed? Lots of height? Seems like someone should be able to draw up a matrix with probabilities.

DD 2024,

Go out and play, attend a PG showcase or tournament.  Get a qualified evaluation from a scout, or coach who can identify true talent, not based on height.  If you have what coaches like, you will hear from them, though they may not be who your son is interested in. 

Keep working hard, in the classroom, in the gym, on the field. Start making contacts through emails.

If your son becomes a true P5 player, he will get noticed.

However, your son should ultimately decide where he wants to get his degree. Not just who he wants to play for.  As far as the Ivies, RJM is correct, too early.

JMO

DD2024 ...

Make a business plan. In the heart of recruiting it would be a “how good am I” target plan. In your son’s case it would be a “how good can I become/potential” plan. But it has to be realistic as opposed to a dream. Talk to his travel coaches. Ask how good is he? How good can be become? My son and I did this while he was having an all conference season soph year of high school and was already joining a 17u travel team. His was a how good am I combined with how much bigger, faster, stronger and better player can I become. At 6’ 160 he had more potential.

Then select target conferences. Decide which teams in the conference are academic, baseball, financial, social and cultural fits. The list can be 50+. Some won’t be interested. Some your son will lose interest as he learns about them.

A good travel coach will be able to presell a player. But when the showcase or tournament occurs the player better produce to the expectation sold by the coach. This is why it’s important to ask yourself, “Is my kid ready to show what he has?” He doesn’t have to look like a D1 pitcher now. He has to look like he’s going to develop into one.

A travel coach making a phone call is the best way to be introduced to a program. Otherwise send emails expressing interest in the college and the program what showcases and tournaments they attend.

Keep in mind the higher up the food chain you go the more the program chooses the player than vice versa. The absolute studs get lots of options.

At a (large classification) high school game a dad asked if my son dominates travel games. The dad was shocked when I told him on a given day he may be the star. But there’s a field full of players just like him. There are a lot of really good players out there. This is before considering the studs. My son was a position player. After metrics a lot is subjective. The one advantage a pitcher has is the reading on the radar gun is not subjective. It’s real. Spin rate is real.

When it nets out is anyone telling the kid he’s a pro prospect and not just a potential pro prospect? If not a top ten round prospect (84% of American MLBers come from the top ten rounds) a kid should be looking for the best education combined with the best baseball experience regardless of level. It’s called the forty year plan. College is setting the kid up for life.

@DD 2024  So maybe the question should be - what makes a D3 vs mid D1 vs high D1 vs pro player?

A) it's too soon to know for a 2024 and B) it's whatever the market says it is once it is time.  Not the desired answers, but both are likely the case.

Believe me, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone on HSBBW that isn't/didn't REALLY want black and white answers when it came to their kid's recruiting approach.  EVERYONE is looking for those magic bullets.  My cousin is married to a paid D1 asst (mid Major), so I was beyond excited to sit him down and have him divulge the true secret to me.  What exactly does my son need to do to get recruited?  He gave me a two-word answer that made me wanna puke.  He said "be seen."  He has to be seen.  Two years ago the reaction in my head was "you've got to be kidding me!!"  Today, I understand that he was spot on.  So I can appreciate being unsatisfied with recruiting advice.

@DD 2024 posted:

Hey now that's great insight.

I have older kids who will play college sports. One of them dominated in 10U-12U and will go on to play D3 in college. It was very hard for us to scale down our expectations. Took years, but reality is here. And it's 100% fine. More than fine.

So maybe the question should be - what makes a D3 vs mid D1 vs high D1 vs pro player? One amazing pitch that can fool batters and a couple mediocre ones? Ability to mix pitches that all look the same at delivery? Change of speed? Two sets of pitches? Overpowering speed? Lots of height? Seems like someone should be able to draw up a matrix with probabilities.

With the exception of the top studs the college choice is a leap of faith. My son’s observation was there are 6-8 studs who are going to play. There are 6-8 at the back of the roster who are capable, but less likely. In between are 19-23 players all reasonably close in talent competing after the 6-8 studs for the other 12-14 spots of playing time where they will be considered contributors. Approximately 18-20 position players and pitchers in a given year receive enough playing time to be considered active contributors.

Of these 19-23 players competing for 12-14 spots it’s not about physical ability. It’s about mental and emotional stability and motivation. How do they handle not being handed a starting position for the first time in their life? If they start the season as a non contributor can they stay physically and mentally ready for when they receive the opportunity to prove themselves? Or will they mentally crash and burn if they don’t get immediate gratification? The opportunity may only be  facing one batter, or pinch hitting or pinch running. Success may only mean another opportunity to prove yourself. A kid may return soph year ready to perform and find a JuCo transfer junior at his position.

For the player the matrix is believe in yourself and don’t leave any effort unused. Yet, there are still plenty of transfers due to the choice not working out.

For the parent the matrix is the various antacid products. I remember posters here talking me off the ledge after my son had a major injury just as we were expecting offers to start coming in.

@DanJ posted:

@DD 2024  So maybe the question should be - what makes a D3 vs mid D1 vs high D1 vs pro player?

A) it's too soon to know for a 2024 and B) it's whatever the market says it is once it is time.  Not the desired answers, but both are likely the case.

Believe me, you'll be hard pressed to find anyone on HSBBW that isn't/didn't REALLY want black and white answers when it came to their kid's recruiting approach.  EVERYONE is looking for those magic bullets.  My cousin is married to a paid D1 asst (mid Major), so I was beyond excited to sit him down and have him divulge the true secret to me.  What exactly does my son need to do to get recruited?  He gave me a two-word answer that made me wanna puke.  He said "be seen."  He has to be seen.  Two years ago the reaction in my head was "you've got to be kidding me!!"  Today, I understand that he was spot on.  So I can appreciate being unsatisfied with recruiting advice.

Thanks.

Totally get the "being seen" part. Coaches are smart - they generally will be able to evaluate and project a player pretty quickly. But they do that based on seeing thousands of players over many years.

Not at all specific to me, it just seems like a situation where someone could quantify the probabilities.

Great pic!

@RJM posted:

With the exception I’d the top studs the college choice is a leap of faith. My son’s observation was there are 6-8 studs who are going to play. There are 6-8 at the back of the roster who are capable, but less likely. In between are 19-23 players all reasonably close in talent competing after the 6-8 studs for the other 12-14 spots of playing time where they will be considered contributors. Approximately 18-20 position players and pitchers in a given year receive enough playing time to be considered active contributors.

Of these 19-23 players competing for 12-14 spots it’s not about physical ability. It’s about mental and emotional stability and motivation. How do they handle not being handed a starting position for the first time in their life? If they start the season as a non contributor can they stay physically and mentally ready for when they receive the opportunity to prove themselves? Of will they mentally crash and burn if they don’t get immediate gratification? The opportunity may only be  facing one batter, or pinch hitting or pinch running. Success may only mean another opportunity to prove yourself. A kid may return soph year ready to perform and find a JuCo transfer junior at his position.

For the player the matrix is believe in yourself and don’t leave any effort unused. Yet, there are still plenty of transfers due to the choice not working out.

For the parent the matrix is the various antacid products. I remember posters here talking me off the ledge after my son had a major injury just as we were expecting offers to start coming in.

Amazing.  Thank you.

@Buckeye 2015 posted:

For whatever reason 6'6 and 90mph is a much bigger draw than 6' throwing the same lol

Taller the pitcher less time to the plate. Whether that's a positive I dont know.

@Consultant posted:

2024

Do you attend Serra or San Mateo HS? When our 16-18 year old Santa Rosa Team played San Mateo, it was a "war'!

Many games were decided by our pitchers, who had "accidental" control and "movement" on the fast ball. San Mateo Summer Team in one year had 4 players who played later in the MLB.

Bob

what year was that?  san mateo baseball hasn't been that good in a while!

@DD 2024 posted:

So maybe the question should be - what makes a D3 vs mid D1 vs high D1 vs pro player? One amazing pitch that can fool batters and a couple mediocre ones? Ability to mix pitches that all look the same at delivery? Change of speed? Two sets of pitches? Overpowering speed? Lots of height? Seems like someone should be able to draw up a matrix with probabilities.

I think you need as many of these as possible and some luck that they guys in front of you don't check more boxes.  Ultimately, you need to get outs and be in a position to get the opportunity to do so.  You can only control what you can control.

Talking to a dad on here the other day... both of our boys are freshmen at top P5s.  Both kids were studs in hs and recruited well.  Neither of us have any idea if our sons are even going to be on the travel squad, let alone get opportunities.  They missed out on the "luck" part when it came to everyone getting to come back and the small draft last year.  The boys knew what they were getting into, so now we sit back and hope for the best.

Mattys

1985 -1988. Teams from Danville, Oakland, El Cerrito, Antioch, San Mateo, Santa Rosa, Marin.

40 players later played MLB. This was strong competition. No showcases. No metrics. The only question - "can the boy play"?     [5 scouts each game].

In 1987, I started the Area Code Games.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Mattys

1985 -1988. Teams from Danville, Oakland, El Cerrito, Antioch, San Mateo, Santa Rosa, Marin.

40 players later played MLB. This was strong competition. No showcases. No metrics. The only question - "can the boy play"?     [5 scouts each game].

In 1987, I started the Area Code Games.

Bob

yeah...that was the golden age of the peninsula, for sure. 

@mattys posted:

yeah...that was the golden age of the peninsula, for sure.

And in the early 80's Kmak, Bonds and Jefferies were at Serra.