That may be, Go44, but it sure is great inspiration and motivation for a large contingency of young players with aspirations but who don't fit the size mold that next level play tends to call for .  Also somewhat brings into question that size is necessary to be a player with a power element.  I am fully aware of the reality of physics but it's nice to see guys overcome even those principals sometimes.

And, hard not to pull for a guy who seems so well grounded at the same time.

Go44 - I'd bet Altuve has about 400 games left in him before he hits the wall and maybe not that many.

Pedroia has played as many as 140 games once since turning 30.  Altuve has missed enough games that he hasn't done it in either of the last 2 seasons and he'll be 30 next year.  The odds are he has 1 or 2 more top flight season's left in him before he breaks down.  He may already be showing the cracks and had leg problems the last two seasons.

This aspect of player management cannot be ignored and the value of signing Harper and Machado and others into their late 30's was discussed in depth last winter.  The sad truth is without the juice most of these guys break down between 30 and 33 with a few exceptions like Cruz or Encarnicion here or there.   Altuve's size argues that there really isn't a wall out there for him ...but a cliff.  It is too bad because he really is great and I hope I am wrong.

Luv Baseball,

We're on the same page.   I just hope we're wrong.  Love watching Altuve play hard and players like him beat the odds and succeed in every sport.    it has been heartbreaking to see what has happened to Pedroia.   The guy is  such a gamer.

 

I don’t bother to read the articles on Pedroia’s physical status or odds of comeback anymore. I’ve felt he’s been done for two years. When he signed his eight year contract I figured he would be baseball junk pile material about five years in. It took four injury prone seasons. Unfortunately Pedroia trying to come back is starting to be a joke. It would be better if he’s remembered for how hard he played when he could play. 

When Pedroia signed his eight year, 110M deal many thought he signed for far too little. It’s turned out to be a four years of playing time deal for 110M. He was overpaid relative to signing six years ago.

Smitty28 posted:

Not sure where size comes into play with regards to longevity.  I'm an Angels fan and I worry about Trout breaking down - it's been 4 years since he played more than 140 games.  And don't get me started about Pujols.  

Yes but they get an automatic top 3 MVP candidate even with him missing a month each season. He could play 130 for the next 5 years and easily finish top 5 in voting each time. 

Smitty28 posted:

Not sure where size comes into play with regards to longevity.  I'm an Angels fan and I worry about Trout breaking down - it's been 4 years since he played more than 140 games.  And don't get me started about Pujols.  

Smitty - I think size gives a better chance for longevity.  You can find examples of big guys that break down - but not many of little guys holding up - especially middle infielders.  Now that there is less off a beating on DP's they might last longer but it is hard enough to make it at <5'10" and even harder to go 10+ years at top level.

If the Pedroia comp holds true Altuve will play 130-140 games the next two seasons and then boom.  But he is showing fragility at 28 and 29 that wasn't there for Pedroia.  It is possible he may never play 140 again.  A 100 game age 30 season in 2020 would be a strong indicator he is nearly done.

Smitty28 posted:

Not sure where size comes into play with regards to longevity.  I'm an Angels fan and I worry about Trout breaking down - it's been 4 years since he played more than 140 games.  And don't get me started about Pujols.  

It seems to me that predicting Altuve breaking down on a sample size of 1 is a stretch.   As a fan of Altuve I hope that Joe Morgan is a better comp than Pedroia.

I get that it's tough to get noticed, scouted, drafted, and promoted to MLB the you are short.  That's just the way it is.  I haven't noticed that smaller guys tend to break down early though.  In fact, it's usually the big guys that break down.  I'd be more worried about Judge lasting than Altuve.  

By the way, 45 out of the top 135 hitters in MLB this year played 140 games or fewer, and I'm pretty sure quite a few of these are taller than 5'-6".

JCG posted:
Smitty28 posted:

Not sure where size comes into play with regards to longevity.  I'm an Angels fan and I worry about Trout breaking down - it's been 4 years since he played more than 140 games.  And don't get me started about Pujols.  

It seems to me that predicting Altuve breaking down on a sample size of 1 is a stretch.   As a fan of Altuve I hope that Joe Morgan is a better comp than Pedroia.

Could be - but those 70's and 80's guys ate the amphetamines like candy.  No more of that either which is impacting the number of games played as well as load management.  It may be the 135 game season is the new 155 games season of the past.  If so maybe Altuve has 3/4 good seasons left in him.

I also stated that ALL players are starting to break down in the 30-33 window as part of the discussion those long term deals handed out this spring.  If Judge has more injuries the next couple of seasons it is sure to impact teams willingness to sign him for long years.  The Stanton deal looks like an Albatross already.  

I think this is a pretty interesting aspect of running ballclubs now. I think baseball is sliding toward the NFL mindset that a good portion of the players are interchangeable and that younger/cheaper is the way to build teams.  In the NFL a small percentage of star players get big money but the majority of players are less than 4 years and at the low end.  

 

If you have an 80 hit tool that plays. Sure low signing bonus guys rarely make it but if you hit 300+ at every level (ideally with a couple bombs) that plays. 

The leeway isn't great though, with a 50 hit tool Altuve probably wouldn't have made the majors considering he was like a 5-10 HR guy or so in the minors and added power later.

And now lazy baseball people have another cliche to follow. My smaller player kept getting moved to 2nd instead of SS, even though he was the fastest, best fielder on the team, with the strongest arm. I'm convinced it was because of Altuve/Pedroia comps.

 

There are some really smart people in sports, but also some really dumb ones.

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