Skip to main content

Five years ago a skinny kid (John) showed up at our regular  workouts and began training with us. By the end of his 9th grade year John showed signs of promise so we took him to a tryout camp on at a Texas JuCo that has a reputation for developing pitchers. He was gunned at 85 (as a 15 yr old) at that camp and based on his body type it was easy to project significant increases as he grew and matured. John got better every year and is now a senior in HS. The JuCo I referenced followed him religiously and earlier this year they offered John a full scholarship. He accepted and signed his NLI. John is having a breakout spring as a senior (as predicted) which has led to a lot of attention on social media. IMO some of this has gone to his head and it’s not hard to understand why. Lots of social media warriors (so many experts!) and his new HS coach have been in his ear about him being too good to settle for Junior College. So at their behest John began contacting big name SEC and Big12 schools trying to generate interest. A highly ranked Big12 school bit and offered John a scholarship on the heels of his first no hitter of the season. He has since thrown another one and velo has touched 93. But I digress. John decommitted from the JuCo and accepted the offer from big name Big12 school. Next came the obligatory big splash on Twitter complete with #blessed.  Most people would view this as a success story. But is it really? You see, John has a minor learning disability that the JuCo was making special accommodations for. Do you think the Big12 school will give that situation the attention it deserves? I guess we will see. Another thing to consider is that when John shows up on campus in the fall he will be competing with 38 other PITCHERS for the 18 (pitching) roster spots - and most of those 38 already have college experience under their belts. Personally I don’t like those odds. I hope that things work out for John - and I think that ultimately they will but it may well be at the next school he attends - and not this one. What he has done is trade a (less exciting) path that would have virtually insured his success for a very risky (more glamorous) path where he will get much less personal attention. I believe John (and his parents who orchestrated all this) are making a mistake. I also find fault with the Big12 school for the blatant over-recruiting and for not adhering to accepted protocol (they did not talk to the JuCo coaches before making John an offer). What big D1 programs are doing is the equivalent of buying an option w/o having to spend any money. They know NOW that 39 pitchers are showing up in the fall and they know NOW that half of them will be cut. Anybody wanna bet that the players won’t know about that until August when they arrive on campus? This will be an interesting case to follow regardless of the outcome. But this story is a prime example of big time D1 baseball being all about the business of winning. Before you dive in the pool you best know how deep it is or you may come out crippled.

Original Post

Replies sorted oldest to newest

The Big12 offer came with no athletic scholarship money?

Good question. I believe that some money was involved but I don’t know how much. I would guess no more than 25% this late in the game. But I’m sure that most of the 39 invites to “fall training camp” (and that’s exactly what it is) are not getting any money. The best 18 of the 39 will be kept regardless of who is on money and who isn’t. The rest will be shuttled out of town. The numbers are stacked against the players much more than most people realize. That’s the point I’m making.

@adbono posted:

The best 18 of the 39 will be kept regardless of who is on money and who isn’t. The rest will be shuttled out of town.

I had always thought that getting athletic money meant that the coach was invested in you and thus was a signal you were more likely (at least) to to be kept.  So you're saying that is not the case?   I know that they can and do cut scholarship athletes, I just assumed it was less likely.

I had always thought that getting athletic money meant that the coach was invested in you and thus was a signal you were more likely (at least) to to be kept.  So you're saying that is not the case?   I know that they can and do cut scholarship athletes, I just assumed it was less likely.

Generally speaking you are correct. But the number of players in the transfer portal has changed a lot of things. Grad transfers often come in on no money and many of them are better than unproven freshmen on scholarship. When this happens the HC has a decision to make and it almost always goes in favor of the experienced player. This is what baseballhs alluded to in her post. Even if the younger players on scholarship don’t lose their roster spot they are very likely to lose their chance of playing time. This is an issue at all levels of NCAA baseball due to how many players have received extra years of eligibility.

Adbono,

Two schools (a JUCO and a Big12) is a very small pool of potential offering schools especially for the baseball talent that he possesses.  Based on what you've shared (from the recruit's view) I think he sold himself way short.  Again, from the outside looking in it appears he didn't do his due diligence especially with his "minor learning disability".   I hope his parents were there to guide him in his decision and they accounted for his disability in their recruiting recommendation to his son. 

Everybody has a different story, background and requirements but in the end the recruit (and parents) is going to own the decision.  I realize it is extremely intoxicating to have that level of talent, and difficult for a 15, 16,17 year old kid to make the right choice.   A lot of us have never been in this position with elite talent.   

Sometimes, I think it is much more difficult on elite recruits as they don't have the luxury of more time and more experience in the recruiting process than someone who has D1 mid-major talent who has the benefit of being passed over by the D1 P5s or other D1 mid-majors.  My oldest son was approached and recruited by an SEC after one of their recruits had serious legal issues a year after the recruit had committed.   My son was in the middle of weeding through D1 mid-major schools at the time.    The SEC school was offering academic money, and admissions into the schools honor college.   My son saw this for exactly what it was (a sales tactic) as he had the "benefit" of a year of recruiting experience and rejection from a handful of schools.   In my way of thinking, rejection was a great learning experience for my son in this case.

Just my experience.......

Fenway, your posts always have meat on the bone. In John’s (not his real name btw) case he is somewhat of a late bloomer who is just starting to realize his potential. There is no question in my mind that he will be able to pitch in the Big12. But not yet.  Even with elite talent that doesn’t make him ready for it at 18 years old. One thing that most people don’t give enough consideration is the issue of confidence. Pitching in particular requires supreme confidence to be effective. Confidence is built bit by bit as small successes are stacked up over time. When that course gets abandoned (too soon) for a sink or swim proposition all the confidence gained can be lost in one fell swoop - and it can take a long time  to regain it. When that happens it’s a setback - and it interrupts the career progression. Some players never get back on track. I say why put yourself on a road full of potholes when there is a smooth road nearby that leads to the same destination. Top 25 D1 programs often don’t do much to develop their players. They expect them to show up on campus ready to help win ballgames. The ones that aren’t ready don’t get kept so they can develop. They get replaced post haste. John has tasted success this season at a different level than ever before. As a result he believes he is ready to fly right now. I think he will be ready to fly in 2 more years. I guess we will see who is right. But John is 18 years old and his parents have no prior experience with college recruiting - they just want to see their son play at their alma mater. I am 65 years old and have been around the game all my life. I have seen what has happened to highly recruited HS freshmen pitchers since Covid has changed the rules. They get warehoused, tinkered with, left to their own devices, and lose their confidence. I understand that it’s a decision left up to the player and their family but bad decisions have killed many a promising career. So my money is on me being right about where this is headed. I would love to be wrong but probability says I won’t be.

@adbono posted:

Fenway, your posts always have meat on the bone. In John’s (not his real name btw) case he is somewhat of a late bloomer who is just starting to realize his potential. There is no question in my mind that he will be able to pitch in the Big12. But not yet.  Even with elite talent that doesn’t make him ready for it at 18 years old. One thing that most people don’t give enough consideration is the issue of confidence. Pitching in particular requires supreme confidence to be effective. Confidence is built bit by bit as small successes are stacked up over time. When that course gets abandoned (too soon) for a sink or swim proposition all the confidence gained can be lost in one fell swoop - and it can take a long time  to regain it. When that happens it’s a setback - and it interrupts the career progression. Some players never get back on track. I say why put yourself on a road full of potholes when there is a smooth road nearby that leads to the same destination. Top 25 D1 programs often don’t do much to develop their players. They expect them to show up on campus ready to help win ballgames. The ones that aren’t ready don’t get kept so they can develop. They get replaced post haste. John has tasted success this season at a different level than ever before. As a result he believes he is ready to fly right now. I think he will be ready to fly in 2 more years. I guess we will see who is right. But John is 18 years old and his parents have no prior experience with college recruiting - they just want to see their son play at their alma mater. I am 65 years old and have been around the game all my life. I have seen what has happened to highly recruited HS freshmen pitchers since Covid has changed the rules. They get warehoused, tinkered with, left to their own devices, and lose their confidence. I understand that it’s a decision left up to the player and their family but bad decisions have killed many a promising career. So my money is on me being right about where this is headed. I would love to be wrong but probability says I won’t be.

@adbono  @fenway  when is the podcast coming.  Great, respectful dialog. Always providing sound advice.  Thanks at the insights.

Maybe I can take your threads and implement "AI" based what ifs in CBI.

@adbono Serious question - what do you recommend for those late bloomers who may be capable of playing at a high level at some point in the future but aren't there yet and don't come from a juco friendly area. Meaning the baseball isn't great or doesn't really offer a pathway to higher level baseball.

So a player who lives in CT or NY and has walk-on D1 offers or somebody who hit a late growth spurt and had a significant velo increase but has never really played higher level competition to be tested. I know in our area, there are some decent jucos, but none are really placing their kids well.

@PABaseball, that’s a good question and I think a lot of kids fall into that category regardless of where they live. There is no easy answer. My first suggestion would be to look farther south until you get to areas where JuCo baseball is more highly regarded. That might require an advocate that could make the initial contact. Post grad might be another option tho not my favorite route. I think times are tougher than ever for HS seniors but especially for late bloomers.

@PABaseball posted:

@adbono Serious question - what do you recommend for those late bloomers who may be capable of playing at a high level at some point in the future but aren't there yet and don't come from a juco friendly area. Meaning the baseball isn't great or doesn't really offer a pathway to higher level baseball.

So a player who lives in CT or NY and has walk-on D1 offers or somebody who hit a late growth spurt and had a significant velo increase but has never really played higher level competition to be tested. I know in our area, there are some decent jucos, but none are really placing their kids well.

Just like going D1 a player wants a 17u coaching staff with the right contacts. This was about ten years ago. My son’s Mid Atlantic travel team was placing everyone P5. Except one kid was dumber than a bag of rocks. He had the talent. He didn’t have the brains. The coaching staff placed him at a quality NC JuCo with several ACC programs into the area. The kid flunked out of the JuCo. End of story.

@2022NYC posted:

NYC has a couple of D1 JCs. Monroe College had some players who came from P5 and did the 4-2-4 thing. I imagine that roster is tough to crack.

Yes, some in Pa/Nj as well. You get a decent amount of P5 dropdowns, but it doesn't appear they ever get back to a high level baseball program after the JC. They typically feed to the same 4-10 lower level D1 programs. I don't know if that is because they never belonged in the first place or the juco doesn't place well.

Every local P5-2-4 success story I've seen has involved the player in question heading to a southern juco.

@PABaseball posted:

Yes, some in Pa/Nj as well. You get a decent amount of P5 dropdowns, but it doesn't appear they ever get back to a high level baseball program after the JC. They typically feed to the same 4-10 lower level D1 programs. I don't know if that is because they never belonged in the first place or the juco doesn't place well.

Every local P5-2-4 success story I've seen has involved the player in question heading to a southern juco.

JuCo baseball in the sunshine states is different than in the NE. It’s just way better baseball. All you have to do is look at the results in the D1 & D2 JuCo World Series if you have any doubt. The teams from the NE regions never fare well against teams from Florida, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc. in post season play. There are also some very strong programs in the Midwest but not nearly as many. The regional differences are huge. The 4-2-4 route is common in Texas. Every D1 in Texas over recruits to some extent. Only the very best HS seniors have a chance to stick in a D1 program as a freshman - but many that are not the very best (but still VERY good) show up to take their shot (or so they think) anyway. When they inevitably get shown the door they usually drop down to JuCo where they are welcomed b/c they are very good players. They often take a position away from another player who began at that JuCo and thought he had won a starting spot. But that is a different topic. After success at a Texas JuCo the players often transfer to a equal or better D1 than they started at. Or the JuCo experience has shown them that D2 is a better fit. There are too many players right now at every good D1 program which is why I push the JuCo route for 95% of HS seniors. That route makes sense in Texas. It may not in NY so if you are in that situation look outside your comfort zone. Head south young man!

PABaseball, in general, perhaps the player should research a school that they can get the best education for their desired field of study and also play baseball.  There is no guarantee they develop to the player they hope to be.  If the "late bloomer" would like to play at the next level or at a higher level of college then there may be an opportunity  during the various summer wood bat summer leagues to display their skills. 

No HC/RC can take an education opportunity away from a player but they can take away their baseball opportunity!

@adbono posted:

JuCo baseball in the sunshine states is different than in the NE. It’s just way better baseball. All you have to do is look at the results in the D1 & D2 JuCo World Series if you have any doubt. The teams from the NE regions never fare well against teams from Florida, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc. in post season play. There are also some very strong programs in the Midwest but not nearly as many. The regional differences are huge. The 4-2-4 route is common in Texas. Every D1 in Texas over recruits to some extent. Only the very best HS seniors have a chance to stick in a D1 program as a freshman - but many that are not the very best (but still VERY good) show up to take their shot (or so they think) anyway. When they inevitably get shown the door they usually drop down to JuCo where they are welcomed b/c they are very good players. They often take a position away from another player who began at that JuCo and thought he had won a starting spot. But that is a different topic. After success at a Texas JuCo the players often transfer to a equal or better D1 than they started at. Or the JuCo experience has shown them that D2 is a better fit. There are too many players right now at every good D1 program which is why I push the JuCo route for 95% of HS seniors. That route makes sense in Texas. It may not in NY so if you are in that situation look outside your comfort zone. Head south young man!

@adbono

I agree with your points, with a slight nuance.

Note, there are no D1 Juco programs in NJ, very strong D2 and D3.  (Region 19). This is not due to lack of talent, especially in South Jersey, it is financials of how the community colleges want to be classified.

RCSJ Cumberland and Rowan @ Gloucester are D3 in name only, if they were to upgrade to D1, they would attract from South Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Eastern PA.  South Jersey by itself is has always had some of the better baseball, but I might be a little bias. (Gloucester Catholic, St Aug and Bishop Eustace),

Until a couple of years ago Mercer County (D2) was stacked,  In 2017, if it wasn't for mismanagement of pitchers in the final 2 games of the world series, they should have defeated Parkland, but you have to play the game.

Here are some of the JUCO Insights by State

New Jersey_2022_distribution-by-state[3)

PA

Pennsylvania_2022_distribution-by-state[1)

New York

New York_2022_distribution-by-state[1)

Attachments

Images (3)
  • New Jersey_2022_distribution-by-state(3)
  • Pennsylvania_2022_distribution-by-state(1)
  • New York_2022_distribution-by-state(1)

@CollegebaseballInsights, I’m aware that there are good D3 JuCos in New Jersey and I alluded to huge regional differences. I will use Texas as an example. In Texas the only D3 JuCos are in the Dallas College Conference. Two of those schools (Eastfield & Richland) are ranked in the top 10 nationally right behind the NJ schools you mentioned. But they don’t get much respect locally. Eastfield & Richland couldn’t compete in D1 Region 5 (North and West Texas). They don’t have comparable pitching. There are also no D2 JuCos in Texas. But Region 2 (Oklahoma & Arkansas) plays good baseball and the better teams would compete well in Region 5. There are Texas kids all over Region 2 and there is crossover in talent in the 3 NJCAA divisions the same as there is in the NCAA. In 2019 D2 Western Oklahoma had their entire infield selected in the MLB draft. You think they were any good? It’s hard to speak in general terms about JuCo baseball because the regional differences are so big that there is an exception to almost anything you say. But it’s safe to say that there are only a few exceptional JuCo programs in the NE and in the states I mentioned in my previous post there are literally too many exceptional JuCo programs to count. One thing that’s universally true is that most people don’t know very much about JuCo baseball until they find themselves not being recruited by NCAA D1 schools. Then they want a crash course to learn everything in 15 minutes - and that just can’t be done.

@adbono posted:

@CollegebaseballInsights, I’m aware that there are good D3 JuCos in New Jersey and I alluded to huge regional differences. I will use Texas as an example. In Texas the only D3 JuCos are in the Dallas College Conference. Two of those schools (Eastfield & Richland) are ranked in the top 10 nationally right behind the NJ schools you mentioned. But they don’t get much respect locally. Eastfield & Richland couldn’t compete in D1 Region 5 (North and West Texas). They don’t have comparable pitching. There are also no D2 JuCos in Texas. But Region 2 (Oklahoma & Arkansas) plays good baseball and the better teams would compete well in Region 5. There are Texas kids all over Region 2 and there is crossover in talent in the 3 NJCAA divisions the same as there is in the NCAA. In 2019 D2 Western Oklahoma had their entire infield selected in the MLB draft. You think they were any good? It’s hard to speak in general terms about JuCo baseball because the regional differences are so big that there is an exception to almost anything you say. But it’s safe to say that there are only a few exceptional JuCo programs in the NE and in the states I mentioned in my previous post there are literally too many exceptional JuCo programs to count. One thing that’s universally true is that most people don’t know very much about JuCo baseball until they find themselves not being recruited by NCAA D1 schools. Then they want a crash course to learn everything in 15 minutes - and that just can’t be done.

@adbono I understand.  good point.

@adbono posted:

Generally speaking you are correct. But the number of players in the transfer portal has changed a lot of things. Grad transfers often come in on no money and many of them are better than unproven freshmen on scholarship. When this happens the HC has a decision to make and it almost always goes in favor of the experienced player. This is what baseballhs alluded to in her post. Even if the younger players on scholarship don’t lose their roster spot they are very likely to lose their chance of playing time. This is an issue at all levels of NCAA baseball due to how many players have received extra years of eligibility.

I’ll add that sometimes I think more than a 25% scholarship puts a target on your back. We know a kid who was getting draft attention, ask for more money and got it and then arrived in a huge slump.  He was in his head and could not hit. He did not make it past Christmas because they wanted that money back. There has always been a lack of patience and little development with some schools. Now they are being pretty transparent and just telling kids, this grad transfer (or portal transfer) has a resume…you don’t. They will get a longer leash and more opportunities.  No way to build a resume without opportunity so it’s a hamster wheel.  Even knowing a bunch of guys are going to graduate no longer means anything because a grad student can come in .  Tough climate.

Last edited by baseballhs
@baseballhs posted:

I’ll add that sometimes I think more than a 25% scholarship puts a target on your back. We know a kid who was getting draft attention, ask for more money and got it and then arrived in a huge slump.  He was in his head and could not hit. He did not make it past Christmas because they wanted that money back. There has always been a lack of patience and little development with some schools. Now they are being pretty transparent and just telling kids, this grad transfer (or portal transfer) has a resume…you don’t. They will get a longer leash and more opportunities.  No way to build a resume without opportunity so it’s a hamster wheel.  Even knowing a bunch of guys are going to graduate no longer means anything because a grad student can come in .  Tough climate.

Excellent post!  This is what so many people don’t realize has changed b/c of NCAA rulings regarding Covid. There is no longer ANY development at most competitive D1 programs. Not only do D1 coaching staffs not want to spend their time developing young players, now they don’t have to. Much easier to comb the transfer portal and recruit Juco guys. Both already have experience. I can’t blame 4 year schools for taking advantage of this. But I do blame them for continuing to recruit HS grads that they don’t need and have no intention of developing. The entire situation is caveat emptor like never before.

Adbono;

what is the "motivation" of the "transfer" player; the "graduate transfer"; the JC transfer; and the "Freshman"

Is it a professional contract, a WS ring, the "pride of playing the game"

The wise College Coach will learn the motivation of his players and mold his team for success. Constant testing & teaching with practice games.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Adbono;

what is the "motivation" of the "transfer" player; the "graduate transfer"; the JC transfer; and the "Freshman"

Is it a professional contract, a WS ring, the "pride of playing the game"

The wise College Coach will learn the motivation of his players and mold his team for success. Constant testing & teaching with practice games.

Bob

Bob, I hear you and (as always) you are right in theory. But theory is often different than reality. And the reality is, at the ranked D1 programs (and many others too), the “constant testing & teaching” is NOT happening. It has been lacking for some time but Covid has made it much worse.

@Consultant posted:

Adbono

what are the answers? Personally I would involve the pro scouts and former pro players for weekly clinics for my College team which I did when I Coached College.

Bob

Excellent question. Here are some suggestions; 1) HS players & parents need to wise up about how 4 year schools are recruiting - look at what they are doing instead of listening to what they say, 2) after that they need to start making choices that give them a better chance of success - recruiting has turned into a probability assessment.  3) then they need to make a plan for their own development and not depend on someone else to do that for them. All of that would be a good start.

@adbono posted:

Excellent question. Here are some suggestions; 1) HS players & parents need to wise up about how 4 year schools are recruiting - look at what they are doing instead of listening to what they say, 2) after that they need to start making choices that give them a better chance of success - recruiting has turned into a probability assessment.  3) then they need to make a plan for their own development and not depend on someone else to do that for them. All of that would be a good start.

I wish there was a like x10 button

I'd be willing to follow John and see what happens if you have the time to update the board occasionally. Who knows how many of the 18 POs will stay healthy,? Will John? And if so would that help him get the mound time? Clemson has an outstanding academic support program with mandatory study hall hours for classwork...which is enforced by the HC and definitely helped my son along the way... Good post, @Adbono

@adbono posted:

Excellent question. Here are some suggestions; 1) HS players & parents need to wise up about how 4 year schools are recruiting - look at what they are doing instead of listening to what they say, 2) after that they need to start making choices that give them a better chance of success - recruiting has turned into a probability assessment.  3) then they need to make a plan for their own development and not depend on someone else to do that for them. All of that would be a good start.

@adbono the challenge is the college recruiting process is designed from the perspective of the schools acquiring resources, from the student athlete/family perspective most of the information is unstructured.

Note, there a books, websites, etc that outlines the general process, but when it comes to information about school roster management tendencies, that is hard to find.

Note, the system went from playing HS and American Legion, etc to the travel ball model (training 10 months out the year, weekly tournaments, showcase, etc)

Pure money trail on multiple levels.

Travel programs having 2 to 3 teams at every age group.  Attending tournaments in location that don't recruit players from their area.

Etc.

The model is not set up to inform, it is set up for the $$$.

IMHO

@adbono the challenge is the college recruiting process is designed from the perspective of the schools acquiring resources, from the student athlete/family perspective most of the information is unstructured.

Note, there a books, websites, etc that outlines the general process, but when it comes to information about school roster management tendencies, that is hard to find.

Note, the system went from playing HS and American Legion, etc to the travel ball model (training 10 months out the year, weekly tournaments, showcase, etc)

Pure money trail on multiple levels.

Travel programs having 2 to 3 teams at every age group.  Attending tournaments in location that don't recruit players from their area.

Etc.

The model is not set up to inform, it is set up for the $$$.

IMHO

Most of what you stated is understood by people that have been thru the recruiting gauntlet. However it’s much better understood after the fact and not during the process. Regarding roster management history - a decent amount of information is available on most school websites. It takes some digging, and you have to go back a few years, but it’s not hard to figure out who is getting the ABs, who is getting the innings, and what roster turnover looks like. It just takes time. The fly in the ointment occurs when there is a coaching change as previous patterns are no longer relevant. But if you are an elite HS P being recruited by P5 schools and they are saying that “you are their guy and you will be a dude for us and you will be on the mound for us next year” (and that’s what they say to every recruit btw) the first thing I would do is look at the past 4 years of stats and see how many freshman pitchers got more than 8 innings.

@adbono posted:

Most of what you stated is understood by people that have been thru the recruiting gauntlet. However it’s much better understood after the fact and not during the process. Regarding roster management history - a decent amount of information is available on most school websites. It takes some digging, and you have to go back a few years, but it’s not hard to figure out who is getting the ABs, who is getting the innings, and what roster turnover looks like. It just takes time. The fly in the ointment occurs when there is a coaching change as previous patterns are no longer relevant. But if you are an elite HS P being recruited by P5 schools and they are saying that “you are their guy and you will be a dude for us and you will be on the mound for us next year” (and that’s what they say to every recruit btw) the first thing I would do is look at the past 4 years of stats and see how many freshman pitchers got more than 8 innings.

@adbono  your first sentence "Most of what you stated is understood by people that have been thru the recruiting gauntlet."

A person has to experience before understanding, thus it is the chicken or the egg.

With respects to school website, the data is raw and in certain cases corrupt, e.g  2021 Mississippi State had 46 players, they reported to Department of Ed. 48.

If you were to look at the 2021 roster as of today you will notice there are only 38 players listed.  What happened to the 10 players?

Note, overall the completeness of roster data has a direct correlation to who is maintaining the website and the budget.

Although "Rosters might be considered A Gold Mine",  there are different karats and some of the information is Fool's Gold"

A serious Question:  On average, How much time do you think is spent investigating schools?

Good stuff.  You are on point

Players are often removed from the school's web roster when they leave the team mid-season.Those who are injured and expected to return are usually kept on the on-line rosters, but anyone who enters the portal can expect to be vanished right away.

To get a better picture, look at the Season Stats page on the school's site - those will usually still contain information on the transferred players. It's still incomplete, though, because often the transferring players won't have any stats.

@T_Thomas posted:

Players are often removed from the school's web roster when they leave the team mid-season.Those who are injured and expected to return are usually kept on the on-line rosters, but anyone who enters the portal can expect to be vanished right away.

To get a better picture, look at the Season Stats page on the school's site - those will usually still contain information on the transferred players. It's still incomplete, though, because often the transferring players won't have any stats.

@t_thomas  here is the simple question that any student and parent would like to know in less than 5 mins

"How many players participated on the varsity team during the season?"

Participants
Students who, as of the day of a varsity team's first scheduled contest
(A) Are listed by the institution on the varsity team's roster;
(B) Receive athletically related student aid; or
(C) Practice with the varsity team and receive coaching from one or more varsity coaches. A student who satisfies one or more of these criteria is a participant, including a student on a team the institution designates or defines as junior varsity, freshman, or novice, or a student withheld from competition to preserve eligibility (i.e., a redshirt), or for academic, medical, or other reasons. This includes fifth-year team members who have already received a bachelor's degree.



Mississippi State_2021_roster-insights

Attachments

Images (1)
  • Mississippi State_2021_roster-insights
Last edited by CollegebaseballInsights

I know this is the case at some schools but I must defend Tennessee who has been accused of it, not on here but in other circles.  Their starting lineup this year as the #1 team in the nation is

5th year new catcher who moved from LF and transformed himself, 6th year first baseman, new starting second baseman junior, new starting SS junior, new starting third baseman junior, LF is a mixed bag as no one has claimed that spot which includes juco transfer, freshman, sophomore, and junior.  CF and LF are three year starters.

Pitchers: Friday guy is freshman, Saturday guy is transfer sophomore from mid major, Sunday guy is freshman, first RHP out of bullpen is senior, second RHP is junior, closer is juco junior transfer who sat out last year due to TJ but was at UT, first LHP out of bullpen is junior who has played all three years, second is junior who really came on this year, and LHP closer is 5th year who has played four years.

DH role is mix with 2 juniors and 2 freshmen.

Our coaching staff has done a great job of keeping guys who were not getting playing time and recruiting high end guys.  Add in a small mix of transfers, juco and D1.  They have gotten guys to buy into the program and wait their turn and they are being rewarded by it and will be drafted for it.  Covid helped with the 2 fifth year and 1 sixth year guys.  I think they have strong mix of guys who played from day one to guys who waited and were developed.  Our pitching staff has been developed by one of the best in the nation at any level and hitters are incredible.

@PitchingFan posted:

I know this is the case at some schools but I must defend Tennessee who has been accused of it, not on here but in other circles.  Their starting lineup this year as the #1 team in the nation is

5th year new catcher who moved from LF and transformed himself, 6th year first baseman, new starting second baseman junior, new starting SS junior, new starting third baseman junior, LF is a mixed bag as no one has claimed that spot which includes juco transfer, freshman, sophomore, and junior.  CF and LF are three year starters.

Pitchers: Friday guy is freshman, Saturday guy is transfer sophomore from mid major, Sunday guy is freshman, first RHP out of bullpen is senior, second RHP is junior, closer is juco junior transfer who sat out last year due to TJ but was at UT, first LHP out of bullpen is junior who has played all three years, second is junior who really came on this year, and LHP closer is 5th year who has played four years.

DH role is mix with 2 juniors and 2 freshmen.

Our coaching staff has done a great job of keeping guys who were not getting playing time and recruiting high end guys.  Add in a small mix of transfers, juco and D1.  They have gotten guys to buy into the program and wait their turn and they are being rewarded by it and will be drafted for it.  Covid helped with the 2 fifth year and 1 sixth year guys.  I think they have strong mix of guys who played from day one to guys who waited and were developed.  Our pitching staff has been developed by one of the best in the nation at any level and hitters are incredible.

Agree.  Players need to understand, when $$$ are involved it is the business of college baseball.

@Shoveit4Ks posted:

I'd be willing to follow John and see what happens if you have the time to update the board occasionally. Who knows how many of the 18 POs will stay healthy,? Will John? And if so would that help him get the mound time? Clemson has an outstanding academic support program with mandatory study hall hours for classwork...which is enforced by the HC and definitely helped my son along the way... Good post, @Adbono

I forgot about this thread until I got a notice about it today. So here is an update. “John” (predictably) had an up and down fall on the baseball field. But by all accounts he made the Dean’s List in chasing coeds. He reached out to my pitching coaching partner (but not to me) during the fall for advice, support, and counsel. I view that as a good thing. John’s Big12 school had their home opener yesterday and John was the last of the 39 players listed on the 2023 roster, which was released one hour before the game started. Of the 39 players listed, 22 are pitchers and I think that 5 are freshmen. During the course of a college season the bulk (90%) of the innings are usually pitched by 10-12 pitchers if everyone stays healthy. Injuries can impact that number. If you take the 22 pitchers on the staff and subtract the 5 inexperienced freshmen that still leaves 17 more experienced pitchers who will throw the bulk of the innings this season. Unfortunately the pitchers that are actually getting on the mound will be the only ones getting attention from the coaches during the season. My prediction for John is that he will pitch 10 or less meaningless innings this spring and won’t be coached. That is pretty typical for a P5 freshman pitcher that wasn’t an MLB draft selection. Especially at this particular school. Another little trick this school keeps up its sleeve is that, following a freshman year like I described, they like to take away the players scholarship right before the start of the sophomore year (when the player has no options) and then convince the player to stay and pay 100% of their own expenses. Anyone that doesn’t understand that high level D1 baseball is all business just doesn’t want to see the truth.

@adbono posted:

Excellent post!  This is what so many people don’t realize has changed b/c of NCAA rulings regarding Covid. There is no longer ANY development at most competitive D1 programs. Not only do D1 coaching staffs not want to spend their time developing young players, now they don’t have to. Much easier to comb the transfer portal and recruit Juco guys. Both already have experience. I can’t blame 4 year schools for taking advantage of this. But I do blame them for continuing to recruit HS grads that they don’t need and have no intention of developing. The entire situation is caveat emptor like never before.

I question the statement again about "hardly any development at most competitive programs".  Can you please explain.

Yes, there is some funny business going on with getting premium players from the portal but I don't believe coaches just let them loose to do their thing. Coaches have standards for their programs, but maybe that doesn't apply to the coaches in Texas?

Also my understanding is that P5 programs give scholarships for 4 years. My understanding it's all or nothing.

John's parents have just as much responsibility in the failure of this player as do the coaches.

JMO

@TPM posted:

I question the statement again about "hardly any development at most competitive programs".  Can you please explain.

Yes, there is some funny business going on with getting premium players from the portal but I don't believe coaches just let them loose to do their thing. Coaches have standards for their programs, but maybe that doesn't apply to the coaches in Texas?

Also my understanding is that P5 programs give scholarships for 4 years. My understanding it's all or nothing.

John's parents have just as much responsibility in the failure of this player as do the coaches.

JMO

IMHO the jury is still out.

Based on fall rosters we compared incoming recruiting class for 2022 vs projection 2023 season.

Now that season has started, we are collecting and cleaning up spring rosters and should have new insights by feb 23 for all conferences.



CBI-Incoming-Recruiting-Class-Summary

Attachments

Images (1)
  • CBI-Incoming-Recruiting-Class-Summary

CBI, can you give us a verbal summary of that?  I read it as meaning that in all P5 except the ACC, about 40% of the new players are transfers?  And, except for the Pac-12, more from 4-year schools than from jucos?

Are the numbers similar for non-P5 schools?

Of course, then the question will be, who gets the playing time?

Visualization is self explanatory, there was minimal change within the conferences pertaining to the source of incoming recruiting class.

As the non-p5, we have the information, will determine if it will be shared.

@TPM posted:

I question the statement again about "hardly any development at most competitive programs".  Can you please explain.

Yes, there is some funny business going on with getting premium players from the portal but I don't believe coaches just let them loose to do their thing. Coaches have standards for their programs, but maybe that doesn't apply to the coaches in Texas?

Also my understanding is that P5 programs give scholarships for 4 years. My understanding it's all or nothing.

John's parents have just as much responsibility in the failure of this player as do the coaches.

JMO

  In one of my earlier posts I clearly stated that John’s parents are largely responsible for his current situation. They lied to me, and to many others, in the process of John’s recruiting journey. Ultimately what happens to John will fall at their feet more than anyone else.
   The other things that you question have all been discussed ad nauseam on HSBBW, Twitter, etc. for the past 3 years. That ship has sailed.

@adbono posted:
There is no longer ANY development at most competitive D1 programs.

I am just asking about your statement, again.

You are the one who keeps repeating it.

I see it as an insult to all the coaches and programs who work their butts off.

Perhaps these programs who you know of need do a better job at recruiting instead of scooping up in state mediocre players so the other program doesn't get them.

You know that happens.

@TPM posted:

I am just asking about your statement, again.

You are the one who keeps repeating it.

I see it as an insult to all the coaches and programs who work their butts off.

Perhaps these programs who you know of need do a better job at recruiting instead of scooping up in state mediocre players so the other program doesn't get them.

You know that happens.

I state things that I know to be true for the benefit of the members and visitors on HSBBW. You can like, dislike, agree, disagree or whatever. I don’t really care.

TPM and adbino:

"Time out"! Are we discussing the College Coach's plan to "Develop the Player's 6 Tools" ? This objective requires a extensive lesson plan. Group and individual.

During the 17 years of the Area Code games and Tryouts and many discussions with College Coaches, the definition of "Development of the Player's 6 tools" was not a organized

Maybe with the addition of former Pro Players as College Coaches and the reduction of roosters, we can expect teaching of the improvement of a player's tool box.

The clinics at the College Coaches Convention have provided this education. As Joe Morgan [Giants Coach] related at one of our SF Giants Clinics.

"I can talk about base running and base stealing for 10 minutes or 10 hours which one do you want"?

Bob

@Consultant posted:

TPM and adbino:

"Time out"! Are we discussing the College Coach's plan to "Develop the Player's 6 Tools" ? This objective requires a extensive lesson plan. Group and individual.

During the 17 years of the Area Code games and Tryouts and many discussions with College Coaches, the definition of "Development of the Player's 6 tools" was not a organized

Maybe with the addition of former Pro Players as College Coaches and the reduction of roosters, we can expect teaching of the improvement of a player's tool box.

The clinics at the College Coaches Convention have provided this education. As Joe Morgan [Giants Coach] related at one of our SF Giants Clinics.

"I can talk about base running and base stealing for 10 minutes or 10 hours which one do you want"?

Bob

I think we have a failure to communicate. IMO if a top level D1 school brings in a 22 man freshman class (which is typical) cuts 12 of them at semester (which is typical), carries 10 in the spring, but only a 2-3 get meaningful reps and coaching, I call that a failure to develop young talent. However, if you are one of the 2-3 (out of 22) that is actually playing and improving you would have a different opinion. Like everything else, it turns into an assessment of probability.

@adbono posted:

I think we have a failure to communicate. IMO if a top level D1 school brings in a 22 man freshman class (which is typical) cuts 12 of them at semester (which is typical), carries 10 in the spring, but only a 2-3 get meaningful reps and coaching, I call that a failure to develop young talent. However, if you are one of the 2-3 (out of 22) that is actually playing and improving you would have a different opinion. Like everything else, it turns into an assessment of probability.

Just to make sure I understand, when you say meaningful reps, are you talking about reps in their freshman year?

Just to make sure I understand, when you say meaningful reps, are you talking about reps in their freshman year?

I define “development” as some combination of meaningful reps in practice/games AND attention from coaches during the season in the form of supervision, video analysis, and personal instruction. That’s what all players need in order to improve during their freshman and sophomore years. It varies from program to program how well this occurs. And it’s often not the bigger name programs that do the best job with it. But since Covid : extra years of eligibility, the transfer portal, and the reduction of the MLB draft to 20 rounds, the focus in college baseball has shifted drastically to older, proven players. Since there is an over-supply of them these players are being sought out by the most competitive D1 programs at the expense of developing young players in their own programs. This approach is all about immediate results and it requires less work on the part of the coaching staff. It’s essentially a new business model that has evolved as a result of the circumstances. Some schools have bought into this completely and some just partially. But they are all doing it to some extent at the most competitive D1 programs. There are still some coaches that work hard at developing young players. But they are in the vast minority at this point in time. It’s no different than an employer considering a hiring decision. Would you rather hire an experienced person that has proven they already know how to do the job? Or would you rather hire an inexperienced person and hope that you can train them to do the job well? That’s where we are.

As far as development at D1's.  I can't speak for all of them, but I can assure you there are some schools/coaches that do ZERO to develop players.  My son played at a mid-major and in 4 years I didn't see one kid who improved even a small part due to coaching.  In fact, most of them regressed significantly.  Son said practices were less coordinated than he had in travel ball and HS.  The coach isn't there any more, but it's easy to see why they never won more than 10 games in a season and missed the conference tourney every year.   They are in season 3 of a new coach (started after my son left) and the team has improved each of the 3 seasons.  Son is still friends with some of the players.  He said it's night and day different than what it was like when he was there as far as how the season/practice/workouts/training are done.

@TPM posted:

I question the statement again about "hardly any development at most competitive programs".  Can you please explain.

Yes, there is some funny business going on with getting premium players from the portal but I don't believe coaches just let them loose to do their thing. Coaches have standards for their programs, but maybe that doesn't apply to the coaches in Texas?

I know for a fact this happens.  I know of a P5 pitcher who's at a top 25 team.  His freshman year he was having teammates take videos of bullpens to send back to his club pitching coach for help.  They were focused on winning a CWS, not help a freshman pitcher who only threw 15 innings.

He's a weekend starter now.

I can speak to my son's school UT.  I believe there are kids on both sides. If you ask the ones there, they will tell you they are developed but if you ask the ones who left they will say they weren't.  I can also speak to my middle son's experience.  He was the kid who went from mid 90's LHP to topping at 90 his senior year because the pitching coach did not believe in long toss or throwing between outings and didn't really believe in fall workouts.  Saw several guys regress there.  Some got better but it was really because they got bigger and stronger and matured.  Son was already big and strong when he got there and lack of throwing hurt him.  I also blame him for not doing it even though I harassed him all the time about his lack of throwing.    I think your experience at a school determines your thoughts on the school and the process.

Re: One of son’s travel teammates at a P5 …

Looking back it was obvious the head coach didn’t like his recruiting coach’s recruiting effort on this player. The head coach had his assistants try to change almost everything about the kid’s game. In the spring the kid received zero attention. He didn’t travel. The third time he was the only end of bench player not to get into a lopsided home game he went to the coach.

The coach told him at the end of the season he was going to be told he wasn’t going to be invited back. The kid asked why he wasn’t told after fall ball so he could transfer then. The fireworks started. He was cut on the spot.

I had coached this kid through 16u and watched him for two years in 17u. I saw him as a solid top D2 prospect. This P5 was his only D1 offer. The rest of the 17u team went D1. Every player had P5 offers. Maybe the kid played, “me too.” It was a mistake. A recruit and the parents have to ask themselves honestly, what does this program see that not one other D1 sees? The kid didn’t play freshman year, transferred to a mid major and sat for transfer soph year, got beat out for a starting position his academic junior year and quit baseball.

Had he gone D2 he might have starred. The problem I saw I was the kid was a physical early bloomer. By the time he was a senior in high school I didn’t see how he could get much quicker and stronger. My son and several travel teammates suspected the kid was on roids.

@Master P posted:

I know for a fact this happens.  I know of a P5 pitcher who's at a top 25 team.  His freshman year he was having teammates take videos of bullpens to send back to his club pitching coach for help.  They were focused on winning a CWS, not help a freshman pitcher who only threw 15 innings.

He's a weekend starter now.

I never stated that it never happens. I challenged the statement that "there is no more development at most D1 competitive programs".

These days if you don't get the job DONE as a coach, you lose your job. That goes for low to mid D1 as well as P5 programs. Go to the D1 coaching carousel. Some HC coaches get fired but end up immediately as assistants in other places. I have to shake my head sometimes but usually it becomes a better fit.

Most of the bigger more competitive programs now have plenty of qualified staff to work with freshman and have created positions for this purpose. Many have employed scouts as assistants while the other coaches remain on campus.

It's your job as future freshman parents and your son's job to find out what goes on during fall practice. I met a parent a few weeks ago who told me that he understood the process and would only let his son play for a fair coach who would give his son a shot. Well guess what, the freshman got his shot this weekend and proved he belonged. He thrived in fall practice but he also was a highly ranked player out of HS. Make sure that your player understands how it works.

Last edited by TPM
@RJM posted:

Re: One of son’s travel teammates at a P5 ….

I had coached this kid through 16u and watched him for two years in 17u. I saw him as a solid top D2 prospect. This P5 was his only D1 offer. The rest of the 17u team went D1. Every player had P5 offers. Maybe the kid played, “me too.” It was a mistake. A recruit and the parents have to ask themselves honestly, what does this program see that not one other D1 sees? The kid didn’t play freshman year, transferred to a mid major and sat for transfer soph year, got beat out for a starting position his academic junior year and quit baseball.

Had he gone D2 he might have starred. The problem I saw I was the kid was a physical early bloomer. By the time he was a senior in high school I didn’t see how he could get much quicker and stronger. My son and several travel teammates suspected the kid was on roids.

I wonder how many parents who feel that their kid is "D1 or bust" have even been at a D1 game before their son commits?  When my son was a junior and was getting his first D1 attention I took a Sunday afternoon and went and watched a D1 game.  Keep in mind I had formed & was an assistant coach on his 15U/16u teams that had several guys getting D1 and D2 interest by this point so I felt like I had a pretty good idea of what I watch watching that day.  He didn't know I had gone.  I got home and told him about it and said "I really think you can play at that level, so if that's what you want, then go for it".  Turns out he ended up playing for one of the two schools I watched that day.

I guess my point is that parents in a lot of cases probably should get some help and insight from someone knowledgeable and that they trust to give them their thoughts.  Can the kid make the team?  If he does will he play?   Will he sit for 2 years?   It seems like every parent of an incoming freshman thought their kid would get significant playing time right away.  Fortunately my son did, but we knew going in that several of the guys in his freshman class wouldn't....and we knew which two for sure wouldn't handle it well.  They didn't (and neither did their parents) and both were gone after their freshman year.

@RJM posted:

Re: One of son’s travel teammates at a P5 …

Looking back it was obvious the head coach didn’t like his recruiting coach’s recruiting effort on this player. The head coach had his assistants try to change almost everything about the kid’s game. In the spring the kid received zero attention. He didn’t travel. The third time he was the only end of bench player not to get into a lopsided home game he went to the coach.

The coach told him at the end of the season he was going to be told he wasn’t going to be invited back. The kid asked why he wasn’t told after fall ball so he could transfer then. The fireworks started. He was cut on the spot.

I had coached this kid through 16u and watched him for two years in 17u. I saw him as a solid top D2 prospect. This P5 was his only D1 offer. The rest of the 17u team went D1. Every player had P5 offers. Maybe the kid played, “me too.” It was a mistake. A recruit and the parents have to ask themselves honestly, what does this program see that not one other D1 sees? The kid didn’t play freshman year, transferred to a mid major and sat for transfer soph year, got beat out for a starting position his academic junior year and quit baseball.

Had he gone D2 he might have starred. The problem I saw I was the kid was a physical early bloomer. By the time he was a senior in high school I didn’t see how he could get much quicker and stronger. My son and several travel teammates suspected the kid was on roids.

I was going to ask how could a kid, whether he is fully grown or not, could NOT get faster/stronger in college?  I understand the lifting and the workouts are even more intense and longer once you get into college.  Then I read the last line.  I guess if he was on steroids he might have reached his max strength and speed.

@adbono posted:

I forgot about this thread until I got a notice about it today. So here is an update. “John” (predictably) had an up and down fall on the baseball field. But by all accounts he made the Dean’s List in chasing coeds. He reached out to my pitching coaching partner (but not to me) during the fall for advice, support, and counsel. I view that as a good thing. John’s Big12 school had their home opener yesterday and John was the last of the 39 players listed on the 2023 roster, which was released one hour before the game started. Of the 39 players listed, 22 are pitchers and I think that 5 are freshmen. During the course of a college season the bulk (90%) of the innings are usually pitched by 10-12 pitchers if everyone stays healthy. Injuries can impact that number. If you take the 22 pitchers on the staff and subtract the 5 inexperienced freshmen that still leaves 17 more experienced pitchers who will throw the bulk of the innings this season. Unfortunately the pitchers that are actually getting on the mound will be the only ones getting attention from the coaches during the season. My prediction for John is that he will pitch 10 or less meaningless innings this spring and won’t be coached. That is pretty typical for a P5 freshman pitcher that wasn’t an MLB draft selection. Especially at this particular school. Another little trick this school keeps up its sleeve is that, following a freshman year like I described, they like to take away the players scholarship right before the start of the sophomore year (when the player has no options) and then convince the player to stay and pay 100% of their own expenses. Anyone that doesn’t understand that high level D1 baseball is all business just doesn’t want to see the truth.

Are you kidding me?  That is a dick move, in all aspects.  not helping the kid develop and then pulling the scholarship when he has no options.  Man, if my kid ever becomes good enough to play at a top school, I pray I can recognize something like this and avoid the school. 

@Dadof3 posted:

I guess I didn't realize how ruthless it is.  Even in corporate America they invest in their employees and try and develop them.   I am glad I read this thread and pass on to my boys that they must take charge of their development even in college.  

There are a lot of very fine mid D1 programs with great coaching staffs in all parts of the country. I believe ever player can find a home but they must be realistic in their search.

I do not recommend anyone go into a top 25 program unless someone has identified your player as a top prospect.

Not that they don't  develop but it's very difficult to play as often as you think you should. Some players know they have to wait, others just leave.

Last edited by TPM
@Dadof3 posted:

I guess I didn't realize how ruthless it is.  Even in corporate America they invest in their employees and try and develop them.   I am glad I read this thread and pass on to my boys that they must take charge of their development even in college.  

That is the thing to take away from this thread. Every player needs to be in charge of every aspect of his own career- including development. Things are in a constant state of flux and it’s up to the player to create his own plan and work it.

@adbono posted:

That is the thing to take away from this thread. Every player needs to be in charge of every aspect of his own career- including development. Things are in a constant state of flux and it’s up to the player to create his own plan and work it.

That I agree with 100%!

Example:  Wyatt Langford

Last edited by TPM

Someone asked me this week how you know if a kid is top P5 player?  I gave several things from this thread and actually pointed them here.  But I also finished with in today's world if they are not getting some professional MLB interest, questionnaires and scout conversations in HS, they probably will struggle at that level.  Not saying you can't, but even those who beat the odds will tell you it is tough.  On son's podcast, the ones who did not get that interest out of HS that play or played at UT, have all said I had to work my butt off to have a chance because I was going against the grain.  We also know a bunch that realized they were in over their heads.  Son's freshman roommate was one who got redshirted freshman year and realized he was a great HS player but in over his head at UT.  Transferred and has had a great three years at a smaller school.  He found the "right pond".   He might could have stayed and played a little but he also might have stayed and never played.  He made what was the best choice for him.

I don't think lack of coaching is the issue. I think lack of coaching for roster numbers 25-40 is the issue.

It's pretty bizarre that these guys who are supposed to be baseball guys cannot get an end of the roster guy to at least become a spot starter or situational player within a year or two. The fact that they have to cut 7-12 players every year shows they are lazy with recruiting and are not necessarily the baseball savants they're made out to be.

@PitchingFan is correct. The amount (or lack thereof) of interest from MLB scouts is the best litmus test indicator of top P5 talent. In essence that is the market telling those players they belong at that level. And they are right most of the time - as their jobs depend on them being right. Things tend to go pretty well for players of that caliber when they opt to play in college. Superstars always have an easier path if they can stay healthy. But there are a lot of really good players just below the superstar level and things have gotten more difficult for that group and everyone below them. That’s why being in the right pond is more important than ever. There is more to it than baseball - even for guys at P5 programs. Things like academic progress, confidence, and happiness. It’s rare for a player to reach his potential if he isn’t happy. The overall environment that a player lives in every day is as important as anything else.

@adbono posted:

@PABaseball wrote, “I think lack of coaching roster numbers 25-40 is the issue.”

I agree. That would be called lack of development, wouldn’t it ?!?

Correct. It's really sad.

Youngest is a freshman at a mid major. Turned down a few 25-30% P5 offers to be at his current school. Opened against a P5 this weekend. I thought he was better than the freshmen the P5 rolled out. I also knew that if he struggled at all in the fall he would've been cut by Halloween. He will be much better off getting more attention and instruction at his current school.

@PABaseball posted:

I don't think lack of coaching is the issue. I think lack of coaching for roster numbers 25-40 is the issue.

It's pretty bizarre that these guys who are supposed to be baseball guys cannot get an end of the roster guy to at least become a spot starter or situational player within a year or two. The fact that they have to cut 7-12 players every year shows they are lazy with recruiting and are not necessarily the baseball savants they're made out to be.

Why put in the time with players unlikely to be on the roster next year?

I wonder how many parents who feel that their kid is "D1 or bust" have even been at a D1 game before their son commits?  When my son was a junior and was getting his first D1 attention I took a Sunday afternoon and went and watched a D1 game.  Keep in mind I had formed & was an assistant coach on his 15U/16u teams that had several guys getting D1 and D2 interest by this point so I felt like I had a pretty good idea of what I watch watching that day.  He didn't know I had gone.  I got home and told him about it and said "I really think you can play at that level, so if that's what you want, then go for it".  Turns out he ended up playing for one of the two schools I watched that day.

I guess my point is that parents in a lot of cases probably should get some help and insight from someone knowledgeable and that they trust to give them their thoughts.  Can the kid make the team?  If he does will he play?   Will he sit for 2 years?   It seems like every parent of an incoming freshman thought their kid would get significant playing time right away.  Fortunately my son did, but we knew going in that several of the guys in his freshman class wouldn't....and we knew which two for sure wouldn't handle it well.  They didn't (and neither did their parents) and both were gone after their freshman year.

The kid played for me in 16u when the boys were fifteen. He was one of five, including my son recruited by 17u teams the following year. They all went to the same team. These kids had been playing together since 13u. They played on rival teams in LL. They knew of each other going back to ten years old. I believe the kid was caught up in “me too.”

This kid started attending MLB scouting events after committing. I asked the dad why. He said he’s a pro prospect. My only comment was the only players who should be attending these camps are players who might get million dollar-plus offers. My son’s first year on the 17u team one kid got the big offer and signed. His second year I felt there was one player. It wasn’t this kid. Even the kid I felt had the potential didn’t bother. He knew he was going to college.

I still say it is a dual problem.  Which comes first chicken or the egg?

The coaches are afraid if the player does not start as a freshman they will not stay so why should I invest in a kid who probably won't be here next year.  The player who doesn't start as a freshman thinks he will get cut so why invest the extra time to still not get to play.  Both are hurting themselves and others.  I think it is rare the coach who invests in the guy who won't help him until 2/3 years down the road and the player who stays with the program even though he may not start until his junior or senior year.

Trey Lipscomb is one of the greatest examples of staying the course.  He sat behind two draftees at third base for UT and did not start until his senior year.  Then had a great season and got drafted.  He is the unicorn. (For those of you on the other thread who do not know what the phrase unicorn means it is a very unusual person who you don't see every day.)

@PitchingFan posted:

I still say it is a dual problem.  Which comes first chicken or the egg?

The coaches are afraid if the player does not start as a freshman they will not stay so why should I invest in a kid who probably won't be here next year.  The player who doesn't start as a freshman thinks he will get cut so why invest the extra time to still not get to play.  Both are hurting themselves and others.  I think it is rare the coach who invests in the guy who won't help him until 2/3 years down the road and the player who stays with the program even though he may not start until his junior or senior year.

Trey Lipscomb is one of the greatest examples of staying the course.  He sat behind two draftees at third base for UT and did not start until his senior year.  Then had a great season and got drafted.  He is the unicorn. (For those of you on the other thread who do not know what the phrase unicorn means it is a very unusual person who you don't see every day.)

Both kids (baseball and softball) observed everyone shows up fall of freshmen year with the talent to compete for playing time. Everyone was a high school star. No one has ever sat before college. But it doesn’t take long for those not getting on the field to lose their mental edge and have one foot out the door. They said if they notice while focused on their own business, it must be easy for the coaching staff to see it.

@PitchingFan posted:

I still say it is a dual problem.  Which comes first chicken or the egg?

The coaches are afraid if the player does not start as a freshman they will not stay so why should I invest in a kid who probably won't be here next year.  The player who doesn't start as a freshman thinks he will get cut so why invest the extra time to still not get to play.  Both are hurting themselves and others.  I think it is rare the coach who invests in the guy who won't help him until 2/3 years down the road and the player who stays with the program even though he may not start until his junior or senior year.

Trey Lipscomb is one of the greatest examples of staying the course.  He sat behind two draftees at third base for UT and did not start until his senior year.  Then had a great season and got drafted.  He is the unicorn. (For those of you on the other thread who do not know what the phrase unicorn means it is a very unusual person who you don't see every day.)

I agree with some points.

Most freshman are not ready to play on a regular basis, it all depends on how well the coach manages his roster. What gets me is when they stick in a freshman for a game or two and burns their eligibility.

Hate that!

@Consultant posted:

NYC DAD

Pitchers are special and it is the informative prospective player and parent who will ask the "proper" questions when interviewed.

Of course, the school publishes the pitcher's innings, record, # of strikes, balls, ground outs, fly balls. It is all available. Research and Analyze.

Bob

That's all well and good.....But you can ask all the questions you want and it still not turn out great. Now combine that with coming on campus during Covid and the circumstances surrounding it and it becomes more complicated.

And I'm talking about the the lower levels of D1, sometimes (a lot of times) pitch counts don't even make it into the box score.

My hypothesis is pitchers at low level D1's are much more likely to be abused than at the upper programs. I think this is a combination of coaching (better coaching at the higher levels) and at the lower D1 levels coaches want to get wins given the opportunity at all costs. Wins can be far and few between and they are looking to climb the ladder to better positions.

I just think families going through the recruiting process need to understand this if it comes down to a low level D1 vs. a high level D3.

@nycdad

What exactly determines a lower level D1 baseball program? I thought that it's determined by football.

I think what players and parents need to determine between D1, D2, D3 is costs and education.

Technically my understanding is that D3 is the lowest level in college sports but these days many D2, D3 have excellent programs.

Pitcher abuse is not as rampant as it was when son was in college.

Thank goodness.

I am just wondering what determines a lower level D1 that might abuse its pitchers.

@nycdad posted:


.....................

My hypothesis is pitchers at low level D1's are much more likely to be abused than at the upper programs. I think this is a combination of coaching (better coaching at the higher levels) and at the lower D1 levels coaches want to get wins given the opportunity at all costs. Wins can be far and few between and they are looking to climb the ladder to better positions.



I need a lot more convincing on your hypothesis.

I think the mid to lower level D1s don't have the resources, experience and expertise that many of the top D1 programs possess but that doesn't necesssarily mean they have a win at all costs mentality.  Some low to mid-D1 programs dilute their hands-on coaching by wearing many hats.  For example, a head coach who doubles as a pitching coach.  I just can't get on board with that.   As @Consultant mentions, pitchers are special but they aren't china dolls either.  Head Coaches don't have the bandwidth to work with every pitcher every day and do all the other things (fund raising, recruiting, etc..) they should be doing for their program.

Thankfully, my son's mid/low D1 program had an excellent pitching coach, strength & conditioning coach, nutritionist and resources available to help them succeed.   In my 4 years of following my son's D1 program and all the programs in his conference, I never once saw or thought a pitcher was over used.  My son came up the way most freshmen pitchers do.  He had a great freshman Fall.  He got a non-conference appearance (against #1 ranked team) early in the Spring, and did very well.  This got him noticed, and he was starting when conference play began.   He never pitched or travelled for  mid-week games, and he knew he was getting to be on the bump on the weekend.  There was no deviation from that pitching routine in any way. 

The potential for abuse in college baseball is there, but I think it is more likely to be someone in the D1 P5 bullpen. My former neighbor was a D1 P5 pitcher at a high profile university.   He bounced between the bullpen (setup, closer, long relief) as well as a starter during his sophomore & junior years.  Senior year he was exclusively a starting pitching.   There were a few pitchers on that team that I thought were overused, but I kept that to myself.  If you take the Fall season + regular season + conference championship + regionals + super regionals + CWS that has the potential for a lot of pitches thrown.  He did all of that.   I believe he also played summer college baseball too.  From my perspective, this D1 P5 situation is more likely to be an issue than a low to mid-D1 program situation.

As always, JMO and experience.

@fenwaysouth posted:

I need a lot more convincing on your hypothesis.

I think the mid to lower level D1s don't have the resources, experience and expertise that many of the top D1 programs possess but that doesn't necesssarily mean they have a win at all costs mentality.  Some low to mid-D1 programs dilute their hands-on coaching by wearing many hats.  For example, a head coach who doubles as a pitching coach.  I just can't get on board with that.   As @Consultant mentions, pitchers are special but they aren't china dolls either.  Head Coaches don't have the bandwidth to work with every pitcher every day and do all the other things (fund raising, recruiting, etc..) they should be doing for their program.

Thankfully, my son's mid/low D1 program had an excellent pitching coach, strength & conditioning coach, nutritionist and resources available to help them succeed.   In my 4 years of following my son's D1 program and all the programs in his conference, I never once saw or thought a pitcher was over used.  My son came up the way most freshmen pitchers do.  He had a great freshman Fall.  He got a non-conference appearance (against #1 ranked team) early in the Spring, and did very well.  This got him noticed, and he was starting when conference play began.   He never pitched or travelled for  mid-week games, and he knew he was getting to be on the bump on the weekend.  There was no deviation from that pitching routine in any way.

The potential for abuse in college baseball is there, but I think it is more likely to be someone in the D1 P5 bullpen. My former neighbor was a D1 P5 pitcher at a high profile university.   He bounced between the bullpen (setup, closer, long relief) as well as a starter during his sophomore & junior years.  Senior year he was exclusively a starting pitching.   There were a few pitchers on that team that I thought were overused, but I kept that to myself.  If you take the Fall season + regular season + conference championship + regionals + super regionals + CWS that has the potential for a lot of pitches thrown.  He did all of that.   I believe he also played summer college baseball too.  From my perspective, this D1 P5 situation is more likely to be an issue than a low to mid-D1 program situation.

As always, JMO and experience.

"I think the mid to lower level D1s don't have the resources, experience and expertise that many of the top D1 programs possess but that doesn't necesssarily mean they have a win at all costs mentality.  Some low to mid-D1 programs dilute their hands-on coaching by wearing many hats.  For example, a head coach who doubles as a pitching coach.  I just can't get on board with that.   As @Consultant mentions, pitchers are special but they aren't china dolls either.  Head Coaches don't have the bandwidth to work with every pitcher every day and do all the other things (fund raising, recruiting, etc..) they should be doing for their program."

Yes, less resources and coaches are busier and a known issue. I think we can all agree that contributes to less development, and potentially higher injury risk for pitchers. We could also talk about nutrition, accommodations, etc. Those things aren't the coaches fault of course, but factor into the overall health.

"The potential for abuse in college baseball is there, but I think it is more likely to be someone in the D1 P5 bullpen. My former neighbor was a D1 P5 pitcher at a high profile university.   He bounced between the bullpen (setup, closer, long relief) as well as a starter during his sophomore & junior years.  Senior year he was exclusively a starting pitching.   There were a few pitchers on that team that I thought were overused, but I kept that to myself.  If you take the Fall season + regular season + conference championship + regionals + super regionals + CWS that has the potential for a lot of pitches thrown.  He did all of that.   I believe he also played summer college baseball too.  From my perspective, this D1 P5 situation is more likely to be an issue than a low to mid-D1 program situation."

I think P5 schools are under a brighter light and it's easier to scrutinize with everything being on social media. There are always exceptions of course.

A few years ago I read a story about Wayne Graham, the former Rice coach. At one point he had eight straight years of a pitcher of his going in the first round. But, they all had TJ by their second pro season. Graham rode them like mules to success during their college careers.

  I started this thread because it seemed like a good example of the things that happen during a recruiting process. And it’s a real life story that we are now following in real time at the request of @Shoveit4Ks.  The decisions made by the player (John), his parents, and the Big12 school he is attending are not at all uncommon. John’s situation is a pretty typical experience for a freshman P at a top 30 P5 program. I will continue to provide updates for those of you that are following the content of this thread because it may help you better navigate your own situation. Here is the first one:

  Over the past week John’s team opened with a 4 game series at home against a very respectable opponent. They won all 4 games and in the process they used 15 pitchers, including 2 of the 5 freshmen Ps. John was not among the 15 pitchers used. And now his dad has reached out to my pitching coaching  partner for support. Apparently John is experiencing a lack of confidence and is wanting to see a sports psychologist. He is also complaining of a sore shoulder. John’s parents are happy because they got to see John on the field in their alma mater’s uniform and of course that was all documented on Twitter.

  Anyone care to count the red flags in this update? I have at least 5.

@adbono posted:

  Over the past week John’s team opened with a 4 game series at home against a very respectable opponent. They won all 4 games and in the process they used 15 pitchers, including 2 of the 5 freshmen Ps. John was not among the 15 pitchers used. And now his dad has reached out to my pitching coaching  partner for support. Apparently John is experiencing a lack of confidence and is wanting to see a sports psychologist. He is also complaining of a sore shoulder. John’s parents are happy because they got to see John on the field in their alma mater’s uniform and of course that was all documented on Twitter.

  Anyone care to count the red flags in this update? I have at least 5.

Ouch!  This story isn't going to end well I'm afraid.

Here is another update for those that are interested. John’s team just completed their second 4 game homestand with another sweep and now sit at 8-0 on the young season. They have now used 17 of the 18 pitchers listed on the roster, including 4 of the 5 freshmen. About half the pitchers have had more than one appearance. The one pitcher that is yet to get into a game? You guessed it. John. All indications are that John was literally the last player to make the roster and that is never a good position to be in. No matter where you are.

Add Reply

×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×