A Recruiting Story

The Big12 offer came with no athletic scholarship money?

Good luck John. I hope you will continue to find safe crossings with the burned bridges you left behind.

@anotherparent posted:

The Big12 offer came with no athletic scholarship money?

Good question. I believe that some money was involved but I don’t know how much. I would guess no more than 25% this late in the game. But I’m sure that most of the 39 invites to “fall training camp” (and that’s exactly what it is) are not getting any money. The best 18 of the 39 will be kept regardless of who is on money and who isn’t. The rest will be shuttled out of town. The numbers are stacked against the players much more than most people realize. That’s the point I’m making.

@2022NYC posted:

Good luck John. I hope you will continue to find safe crossings with the burned bridges you left behind.

John is a good kid. I blame the parents for the burned bridges. But your point is well taken. Baseball is a small world and karma is real.

@adbono posted:

John is a good kid. I blame the parents for the burned bridges. But your point is well taken. Baseball is a small world and karma is real.

Those that don't listen must feel.   Hopefully it will work out for him.  Tough odds.

@adbono posted:

The best 18 of the 39 will be kept regardless of who is on money and who isn’t. The rest will be shuttled out of town.

I had always thought that getting athletic money meant that the coach was invested in you and thus was a signal you were more likely (at least) to to be kept.  So you're saying that is not the case?   I know that they can and do cut scholarship athletes, I just assumed it was less likely.

@anotherparent posted:

I had always thought that getting athletic money meant that the coach was invested in you and thus was a signal you were more likely (at least) to to be kept.  So you're saying that is not the case?   I know that they can and do cut scholarship athletes, I just assumed it was less likely.

Generally speaking you are correct. But the number of players in the transfer portal has changed a lot of things. Grad transfers often come in on no money and many of them are better than unproven freshmen on scholarship. When this happens the HC has a decision to make and it almost always goes in favor of the experienced player. This is what baseballhs alluded to in her post. Even if the younger players on scholarship don’t lose their roster spot they are very likely to lose their chance of playing time. This is an issue at all levels of NCAA baseball due to how many players have received extra years of eligibility.

Freshman team = development = team success

Bob

Adbono,

Two schools (a JUCO and a Big12) is a very small pool of potential offering schools especially for the baseball talent that he possesses.  Based on what you've shared (from the recruit's view) I think he sold himself way short.  Again, from the outside looking in it appears he didn't do his due diligence especially with his "minor learning disability".   I hope his parents were there to guide him in his decision and they accounted for his disability in their recruiting recommendation to his son. 

Everybody has a different story, background and requirements but in the end the recruit (and parents) is going to own the decision.  I realize it is extremely intoxicating to have that level of talent, and difficult for a 15, 16,17 year old kid to make the right choice.   A lot of us have never been in this position with elite talent.   

Sometimes, I think it is much more difficult on elite recruits as they don't have the luxury of more time and more experience in the recruiting process than someone who has D1 mid-major talent who has the benefit of being passed over by the D1 P5s or other D1 mid-majors.  My oldest son was approached and recruited by an SEC after one of their recruits had serious legal issues a year after the recruit had committed.   My son was in the middle of weeding through D1 mid-major schools at the time.    The SEC school was offering academic money, and admissions into the schools honor college.   My son saw this for exactly what it was (a sales tactic) as he had the "benefit" of a year of recruiting experience and rejection from a handful of schools.   In my way of thinking, rejection was a great learning experience for my son in this case.

Just my experience.......

Fenway, your posts always have meat on the bone. In John’s (not his real name btw) case he is somewhat of a late bloomer who is just starting to realize his potential. There is no question in my mind that he will be able to pitch in the Big12. But not yet.  Even with elite talent that doesn’t make him ready for it at 18 years old. One thing that most people don’t give enough consideration is the issue of confidence. Pitching in particular requires supreme confidence to be effective. Confidence is built bit by bit as small successes are stacked up over time. When that course gets abandoned (too soon) for a sink or swim proposition all the confidence gained can be lost in one fell swoop - and it can take a long time  to regain it. When that happens it’s a setback - and it interrupts the career progression. Some players never get back on track. I say why put yourself on a road full of potholes when there is a smooth road nearby that leads to the same destination. Top 25 D1 programs often don’t do much to develop their players. They expect them to show up on campus ready to help win ballgames. The ones that aren’t ready don’t get kept so they can develop. They get replaced post haste. John has tasted success this season at a different level than ever before. As a result he believes he is ready to fly right now. I think he will be ready to fly in 2 more years. I guess we will see who is right. But John is 18 years old and his parents have no prior experience with college recruiting - they just want to see their son play at their alma mater. I am 65 years old and have been around the game all my life. I have seen what has happened to highly recruited HS freshmen pitchers since Covid has changed the rules. They get warehoused, tinkered with, left to their own devices, and lose their confidence. I understand that it’s a decision left up to the player and their family but bad decisions have killed many a promising career. So my money is on me being right about where this is headed. I would love to be wrong but probability says I won’t be.

@adbono posted:

Fenway, your posts always have meat on the bone. In John’s (not his real name btw) case he is somewhat of a late bloomer who is just starting to realize his potential. There is no question in my mind that he will be able to pitch in the Big12. But not yet.  Even with elite talent that doesn’t make him ready for it at 18 years old. One thing that most people don’t give enough consideration is the issue of confidence. Pitching in particular requires supreme confidence to be effective. Confidence is built bit by bit as small successes are stacked up over time. When that course gets abandoned (too soon) for a sink or swim proposition all the confidence gained can be lost in one fell swoop - and it can take a long time  to regain it. When that happens it’s a setback - and it interrupts the career progression. Some players never get back on track. I say why put yourself on a road full of potholes when there is a smooth road nearby that leads to the same destination. Top 25 D1 programs often don’t do much to develop their players. They expect them to show up on campus ready to help win ballgames. The ones that aren’t ready don’t get kept so they can develop. They get replaced post haste. John has tasted success this season at a different level than ever before. As a result he believes he is ready to fly right now. I think he will be ready to fly in 2 more years. I guess we will see who is right. But John is 18 years old and his parents have no prior experience with college recruiting - they just want to see their son play at their alma mater. I am 65 years old and have been around the game all my life. I have seen what has happened to highly recruited HS freshmen pitchers since Covid has changed the rules. They get warehoused, tinkered with, left to their own devices, and lose their confidence. I understand that it’s a decision left up to the player and their family but bad decisions have killed many a promising career. So my money is on me being right about where this is headed. I would love to be wrong but probability says I won’t be.

@adbono  @fenway  when is the podcast coming.  Great, respectful dialog. Always providing sound advice.  Thanks at the insights.

Maybe I can take your threads and implement "AI" based what ifs in CBI.

I would have "no idea" who this is or "where" he is going.  Only team that has more players on the field in fall ball in the state of Texas than this university may be Southlake .

Can’t get anything past a guy from Cleburne!  But speaking of “this University”, I hope people are wising up.

@adbono Serious question - what do you recommend for those late bloomers who may be capable of playing at a high level at some point in the future but aren't there yet and don't come from a juco friendly area. Meaning the baseball isn't great or doesn't really offer a pathway to higher level baseball.

So a player who lives in CT or NY and has walk-on D1 offers or somebody who hit a late growth spurt and had a significant velo increase but has never really played higher level competition to be tested. I know in our area, there are some decent jucos, but none are really placing their kids well.

@PABaseball, that’s a good question and I think a lot of kids fall into that category regardless of where they live. There is no easy answer. My first suggestion would be to look farther south until you get to areas where JuCo baseball is more highly regarded. That might require an advocate that could make the initial contact. Post grad might be another option tho not my favorite route. I think times are tougher than ever for HS seniors but especially for late bloomers.

@PABaseball posted:

@adbono Serious question - what do you recommend for those late bloomers who may be capable of playing at a high level at some point in the future but aren't there yet and don't come from a juco friendly area. Meaning the baseball isn't great or doesn't really offer a pathway to higher level baseball.

So a player who lives in CT or NY and has walk-on D1 offers or somebody who hit a late growth spurt and had a significant velo increase but has never really played higher level competition to be tested. I know in our area, there are some decent jucos, but none are really placing their kids well.

Just like going D1 a player wants a 17u coaching staff with the right contacts. This was about ten years ago. My son’s Mid Atlantic travel team was placing everyone P5. Except one kid was dumber than a bag of rocks. He had the talent. He didn’t have the brains. The coaching staff placed him at a quality NC JuCo with several ACC programs into the area. The kid flunked out of the JuCo. End of story.

NYC has a couple of D1 JCs. Monroe College had some players who came from P5 and did the 4-2-4 thing. I imagine that roster is tough to crack.

@2022NYC posted:

NYC has a couple of D1 JCs. Monroe College had some players who came from P5 and did the 4-2-4 thing. I imagine that roster is tough to crack.

Yes, some in Pa/Nj as well. You get a decent amount of P5 dropdowns, but it doesn't appear they ever get back to a high level baseball program after the JC. They typically feed to the same 4-10 lower level D1 programs. I don't know if that is because they never belonged in the first place or the juco doesn't place well.

Every local P5-2-4 success story I've seen has involved the player in question heading to a southern juco.

@PABaseball posted:

Yes, some in Pa/Nj as well. You get a decent amount of P5 dropdowns, but it doesn't appear they ever get back to a high level baseball program after the JC. They typically feed to the same 4-10 lower level D1 programs. I don't know if that is because they never belonged in the first place or the juco doesn't place well.

Every local P5-2-4 success story I've seen has involved the player in question heading to a southern juco.

JuCo baseball in the sunshine states is different than in the NE. It’s just way better baseball. All you have to do is look at the results in the D1 & D2 JuCo World Series if you have any doubt. The teams from the NE regions never fare well against teams from Florida, Texas, Arizona, Louisiana, Mississippi, etc. in post season play. There are also some very strong programs in the Midwest but not nearly as many. The regional differences are huge. The 4-2-4 route is common in Texas. Every D1 in Texas over recruits to some extent. Only the very best HS seniors have a chance to stick in a D1 program as a freshman - but many that are not the very best (but still VERY good) show up to take their shot (or so they think) anyway. When they inevitably get shown the door they usually drop down to JuCo where they are welcomed b/c they are very good players. They often take a position away from another player who began at that JuCo and thought he had won a starting spot. But that is a different topic. After success at a Texas JuCo the players often transfer to a equal or better D1 than they started at. Or the JuCo experience has shown them that D2 is a better fit. There are too many players right now at every good D1 program which is why I push the JuCo route for 95% of HS seniors. That route makes sense in Texas. It may not in NY so if you are in that situation look outside your comfort zone. Head south young man!