Baseball Options

Fungo

I do not agree with your "myth" statement !

Totally agree Fungo. I don't think a standard bell curve applies for showcases (low number of bad players, large number of average players and low number of great players). I think when you go to a showcase you will see quite a few bad players, a large group of average players and a very small number of great players - kind of like a roller coaster in that you have a steady climb then a dramatic drop.

If you are good you stand out from everyone else. Baseball people know you are good as compared to everyone else.

I have been to showcases / MLB tryout camps where there were "players" who were so bad I was afraid they would get hurt being out there. Then it got better in smaller increments until you reached the group who you thought this guy might help you or you would like to see this guy again to see if he can produce again. Then the one guy steps up and everyone knows this guy is legit. He does everything better - runs faster, throws harder / farther, hits ball harder / farther, more pitching velocity etc...

My point being is the stand out guy just needs to get seen by a few people and the momentum has started for this guy to be seen by many people. But you take a regular guy he needs to get out there more often and perform at a higher level consistently in front of the right people to have a chance. Since there are more of these type of players the chances of getting a college spot is very difficult.

When I took over the team I had last 10 years ago they weren't that good overall but we had some guys who could play a little. They didn't really know about how to get the exposure for themselves by going to showcases. They thought colleges came out and find you. I tried to convince them to get out there in doing these things and they didn't. So I started scheduling teams who had great players.

The college / pro scouts were going to be there to watch the guy from the other school. It gave my kids a chance to be seen. It worked because there was some interest generated and my guys liked performing in front of those people. Next thing you know they started going to showcases and camps.

That talent pool got deeper and the chances got fewer.

TRHit, If there is only one roster spot available and 5 players are vying for it are there 5 options available or one option? I say there is only ONE option available. The most talented player has that option. If he chooses not to select that option then that option is passed down to the next talented player and so forth.

How do you see it?

As always, strong points fungo.

One thing I might say to counter is that while the number of spots availible haven’t changed, the advent of showcases/national tournaments have grated more opportunities for players to be seen by schools that traditionally haven't been a realistic option.

If I look at my small part of the country, it seems that over the last two or three years NJ has had quite a few players that are getting opportunities to play in the traditional power conferences. I have no doubt that NJ has always had quality players however before many of the teams started playing a national schedule the players had little chance of getting on these power conference teams radar. Teams like UNC, LSU, Tulane, Florida, Vandy, Virginia, USC and others are usually not found running around watching local High School or Legion games in my neck of the woods.

I would say the options are much better now than in years past.

Fungo- That's why you never compare yourself to anybody else. Be the best you can be. That's all you can control.

That said, here's my question- If a talented tree falls in the wood and nobody there........

Fungo- You have a PM

Fungo

You are saying that the general consensus is that there are more options for players.

I am saying that that is not the general consensus---at least in my recent experience

True, there are only so many roster spots. In a perfect world the most talented players are filling all those spots. Many colleges have figured out how to do that. Others haven't!

There are many ways to secure opportunity. It can even happen accidently. If ten players were successful at getting one of those roster spots and one player succeeded using his method and nine players succeeded using a different method... Which method would you recommend?

Of course, showcases and high level summer baseball don't increase the number of roster spots. They just have a bearing on who is getting those roster spots. It's always possible to get one without doing much of anything. But it increases your options the other way.

IMO, Options are when a player like jerseydad's son and others are being recruited by many of the nation's top college programs, rather than just the schools around where he lives. More people that want you... equals more options and in some cases much better offers. Same goes for professional baseball, the more clubs that see a free agent and think he is talented, the more possibilities or options he is going to have. (ie.CC Sabathia)... I know that is a bad example. How about we use some young kid from Panama, instead?

quote:

Originally posted by Fungo:
...but I believe every teammate of my son received the same amount of exposure as he did (if they were on the field).

That would only be true if the person was paying attention when people other than the blue chipper were involved.

A persons nature when they come to see someone/something is to focus on the task at hand. That would mean that other players would not recieve the same amount of exposure as the blue chipper. They would recieve varying degrees of exposure, from nearly the same to very little, depending on the individual and even what kind of day that individual was having.

As coach2709 said, it gives the other players a chance to be seen...but only a chance.

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ArmyDAD,

I do agree with what you've said in most cases here, BUT there are the rare and wonderful times when the scouts/coaches are there to watch someone else, and you can't help but get noticed.

OfcrKID#1 was seen by the Director of Scouting of the Phillies in just such an occasion. They were playing TCU one afternoon, and the Phillies crew was there to watch a potential first rounder. There was some "exposure" already documented on the cadKID, but not huge. Enough though that the first round prospect decided to throw his best heat and prove that he could take on AF's best hitter. cadKID hit a 97mph fastball back at the prospect and almost killed him. A line drive that hit the fence on a fly in straight away center. The prospect went the distance throwing 16 s/o's that day, but cadKID went 3 for 4, with a dinger, because the prospect let his ego get in the way, continuously throwing hard stuff.

Not there to watch cadKID, but they took him in the Draft. When I spoke a year later to the Scouting Director, his remembrance was that cadKID hit 2 dingers and went 5 for 5. Priceless...

Coach Busboom always used to say, "the guy that stays is the guy that plays..."

Get seen, wherever you can, when you may least expect it. They're watching you in the parking lot, putting your shoes on...

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I agree with the statement that exposure is a good thing. I do think a few folks go a little over the top in trying to attend every showcase event out there though. Where do those parents get their money from anyhow?

We are very fortunate in that son plays at a high school that draws a fair amount of attention from the scouting community. We still have attended a few showcases and can legitimately say it was just for the experience. Son and family both enjoyed every minute.

Fungo is exactly right, there are only so many roster spots available (even fewer with roster reductions). I think showcases give players the opportunity (or additional opportunity) to make a bid for one of those spots.

Baseball options? Pretty much still the same, lots of guys going after a few spots. Showcases and exposure improve a players odds though.

Silly question , but are showcases only, mostly hitting, or fielding is involved?

quote:

Showcases and exposure improve a players odds though.

OK2Go
Please excuse me if I use your comment as an example because I agree with almost all you said BUT we need to discuss something --- If my son is on the radar at State U rated a 9 (for sake of discussion) and your son is seen at a showcase by the State U coach and is rated an 8, your son hasn't developed an "option" at State U although on the surface it appears that he has. The coach cannot "create" a roster spot for an "8" when he has given that option to a "9". Yes, your son can receive an option at State U but only if my son moves on to College "B". But by moving on to college "B" my son "steals" an option that someone else thought they had in the bag at college "B". I actually saw this happen first hand. UT had offered my son and at the same time their second choice which they had shown interest in, was getting the cold shoulder. (I happened to know the dad of the other player and we talked) As our interest waned, their activity increased, as our interest increased theirs waned. My son was actually controlling the recruitment of the other player. My son was more talented and controlled the option. My son moved on and the player "B' ended up at UT. Yes, players need some exposure but talent controls the outcome. Showcases don't improve the odds. Do the math, showcases simply increase the player pool for the same number of roster spots. Explain how that could improve ones odds?

EXAMPLE: If you're unemployed and interviewing for a position and there are three applicants. What are your odds? 1 in 3. The room fills to twenty people. What happened to your odds? 1 in 20. But you are definitely the most qualified (talented) applicant and suddenly your odds improve. YES! But what just happened to those other unqualified dummies? What happened to their odds? They just got all dressed up to stand in line.
Fungo

It's been my experience of the following:

"With Chaos, comes Opportunities"

and for 277 of the 297 D-1 Collegiate Baseball Colleges, there are opportunities in the recruiting chaos.

I seems to me that it brakes down like this.

Schools - have more options when more kids join the pool and get more exposure.

Top talents - have more options because more schools get to see them. e.g. jerseyson and other "northern" kids.

All other kids - have less options because there will be more kids for the same amount of spots at the colleges.

As usual, and how it should be, is that the more talented someone is the more options they have. This is true in baseball and in any other profession. If a kid comes out of Harvard with a 4.0 he has more optiions than a kid coming out of another school with a 2.5 GPA.

quote:

Silly question , but are showcases only, mostly hitting, or fielding is involved?

Not silly at all. Showcase promoter try to evaluate all aspects of a player's talents including fielding. More and more promoters are also including game situations in their showcases to reveal strengths and weaknesses that cannot be evaluated with a stop watch or a radar gun.
Fungo

fillsfan, Good post.

I agree with TR. Even though we didn't showcase, the more you attend the more coaches get to see you. Not all coaches attend 1 showcase. In fact many show cases put you infront of a totally different type of colleges. Also players can often have poor showcases. I have seen guys sign based on 1 good appearance. Not awlways a good thing to do.
I once saw a guy signed at a MLB tryout which is extremely rare. He had played 2 years of college ball in the US and was signed while playing for a local college. That day he was hitting mid 90s.He was not an outstanding pitcher even in the local college but his velocity that day got him a shot. Never heard about him again.
I saw a guy in a game who had his most outstanding game and he was signed to a college deal. I was sitting with the recruiter and he was taken by the kids speed on the bases. I kept quiet because I knew the kid very well and it was extremely rare he got on base. He was released after his 1st year.
Sowcases and tryouts do create more options and sometimes options where non existed before.
I have also been to watch MLB crosscheckers who were there to watch a high draft pick. He was humbled by my son and another lefty. They didn't look at anyone but the draft pick who is about to start his 3rd year in MiLB and has had 2 very great years in MiLB. I believe they saw a very strong and projectable hitter. He signed for just under $500,000. I also have been tocamps/tryouts were there are 5-6 guys throwing 90+ and they only look at those guys so others are overlooked.
The more tryouts/camps you go to the more options you may create but then again how many do you need?. To us showcases were a last option to create BB options.

quote:

EXAMPLE: If you're unemployed and interviewing for a position and there are three applicants. What are your odds? 1 in 3. The room fills to twenty people. What happened to your odds? 1 in 20. But you are definitely the most qualified (talented) applicant and suddenly your odds improve. YES! But what just happened to those other unqualified dummies? What happened to their odds? They just got all dressed up to stand in line.

While this example makes sense. What are the odds on securing that job if you don't show up and the employer does not know that you exsist?

No matter how it is done... putting yourself in the best position can increase your options. It has happened thousands of times. It doesn't mean those options will be the ones you want. It doesn't even gaurantee you will have any options at all. That is because everything is based on what happens after you show up. That is the same whether it be a job interview, an audition, a tryout, etc.

The best players end up with the most options, but only if they are known and seen by the option givers. You could say that every option that is taken it creates a new opening/option at the place that didn't get the player. Or you could say that every option that someone takes eliminates an option for someone else. Half a dozen of one... 6 of another.

Professional baseball works in similiar fashion. Only so many draft picks. Only so many jobs available. We all know the draft is not perfect. The art of scouting and selecting players involves the ability to project talent. If Buster Posey is worth 6 million now, why was he a 50th round pick out of high school? He was still the same Buster Posey! Only a few years younger and played a different position. He was an AFLAC All American as a high school player. He then ended up being a catcher at Florida State. That increased his value and ended up giving him more options.

For nearly every player... Every route taken, every result obtained, could have been different (better or worse) by doing things differently.

Sorry if I got off topic there. I just think this is a very interesting topic and an important one.

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Not Brain Surgery....simple as Offense/Defense...

..for the middle of the bell curve...

Offense: Used to be that showcasing was an offensive move, being agressive, taking charge, beating the #'s game..

Defense: Now showcasing has become a DEFENSIVE move...like it or not, whine as you will, argue against it...BUT...middle bell curve talent HAS to showcase some just to stay even.

for the top players, doesn't matter, talent talks over long distances....for the middle of the pack you cannot "get behind" when talent is equal and you are seeking "Blue Chip Crumbs".

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