Best at 12 and at 17?

Thanks for the plug lol.  Mine is 14u now...  so far the same kids who were best at 9 and 10 still are.  Soon will be high school years.  Time will tell.  

Anecdote is definitely the right word.  When son was 12 there were three "stud" pitchers in our county that were throwing 70 mph.   One threw 90 as a senior and played college ball.  One threw 75 as a senior.  The third played HS ball, but never pitched because he ruined his arm through overuse as a kid.    

Does any of this mean anything.  Absolutely not.   

MTH posted:

Anecdote is definitely the right word.  When son was 12 there were three "stud" pitchers in our county that were throwing 70 mph.   One threw 90 as a senior and played college ball.  One threw 75 as a senior.  The third played HS ball, but never pitched because he ruined his arm through overuse as a kid.    

Does any of this mean anything.  Absolutely not.   

Life is like a box of chocolates and you never know what your gonna get?

I believe that most kids that are the best players in an area at age 12 will also be one of the best players at 17 in that area.  Not all, but more than half IMO.  The only thing to consider is physical maturity and size.  Often the most productive players at age 12 are the biggest strongest players, not necessarily the best players.

Kids change a lot over several years.  Some that you would never guess become the best.  But if you see an average or below average sized 12 year old that really stands out, the chances are good that he will also stand out at 17. If he wants to!

I still want to know where all these 12yo's throwing 70 come from?  I am going to have to get my pocket radar recalibrated!

Tell your wife everyone says it's time to upgrade.  Keep your eyes on ebay and you can find a used Stalker Sport 2 for $300 or less.   

One year of LL all stars the team went to states. Five went on to D1 ball. Nine of twelve played college ball at some level. The next year, also going to states only four of twelve played high school ball. Two were the same players from the previous year.

The second team was loaded with big strong athletic kids who could out muscle and/or out run a small field. Overall the team was huge. Every kid on the team went on to play a high school sport. Everyone made all conference in their sport at some level. They just weren't baseball players. Back during all stars I quietly told a friend only four of them would survive the 60/90 field. I was right.

i remember one kid hit a ball so hard off a metal sign in the outfield it rang like a bell. It made a crease in the sign 

The best player (performance wise) in our district was named The Meal Ticket by his 5'4" father. The kid was 5'8" and threw mid 70s. He never lost a game in league or all star play. He hit balls to the rooftops across the street. I was proud of our kids they wanted to face him in all stars. His team got eliminated first.

He was done with baseball after JV his soph year. He swung like a rusty gate. He was done as a hitter on the 60/90. As a soph he was a sore armed 5'9" pitcher with a 78mph fastball.

i believe it's possible to cherry pick a travel team at 12 where players are likely to go one as baseball players. I created a 13u team of some of the best all stars from the district. Almost all went on in the game. Another dad did the same thing and his players went on. You can look at athleticism, coachability, the size of the parents and do a fairly good job of cherry picking a team. 

Even back when I coached Babe Ruth ball (13-15 rec ball/no travel then) after college and LL for my son when we got to the lower rounds in the draft I chose players the same way.

Since you correctly predicted who would and who would not make it at the next level this is just another testament that you can in fact tell at 12 who will be good at 17!

There are kids at twelve you most likely can predict if they are willing to make the commitment. There are preteen stars you can tell it's unlikely due to their mechanics or athleticism.

There will also be kids who will grow and change. One of my LL friends didn't make all stars. He was a chubby kid with coordination issues. He became a 6'4" all state player in GA, played in the SEC and pitched in the majors for six years. He threw 90+ back when it was considered major heat.

The only indication there might be something there is his older brother  was drafted and his father played major college football. But you wouldn't know watching him play as a preteen. 

Almost all good players at 17 were very good at 12 not not nearly all good 12 year olds are good at 17.

Dominik85 posted:

Almost all good players at 17 were very good at 12 not not nearly all good 12 year olds are good at 17.

+1

I saw plenty of quality players on the small field who were well instructed preteens. But I could tell they probably didn't have it for the big field.

I believe that genetics is the biggest (not the only) factor. When a 12 year-old is as tall or taller than his dad, he may not grow any more. The mom's height is also important. Now, it doesn't mean he won't be a stud if he's fundamentally sound but many get by just being bigger stronger faster at 12 and it just won't happen as much at 17. 

There is also a top 1% athlete who may be labeled 'Can't-Miss' but baseball is a skill and all that athleticism won't help you hit a baseball at the higher levels w/o good instruction. 

I think by 12 y.o. if a kid a phenom, not just good, you can tell.  In our small town I've only seen maybe 4 over the last 12 years. 

2020dad posted:

I still want to know where all these 12yo's throwing 70 come from?  I am going to have to get my pocket radar recalibrated!

Same place where all these Varsity high school pitchers are throwing 85+.   I haven't found them either. 

I was just cleaning out my son's bedroom (out of the house and living on his own near his work). There was a team picture of his travel 13U team of 12 players. (7) D1 players (1) SEC, (2) ACC, (1) Atlantic 10, (1) MAAC, (1) Ivy. (4) D2 players, all in the Northeast-10 and one D3 player in the Empire-8. Only one player did not play beyond HS. Additional one player is playing Milb and should be playing at the high A level this year.

These are all players that graduated HS in 2010 and are either 23 or 24 years old now. Not to bad for a team in Northern NJ from a very small area. 

birdman14 posted:

I was just cleaning out my son's bedroom (out of the house and living on his own near his work). There was a team picture of his travel 13U team of 12 players. (7) D1 players (1) SEC, (2) ACC, (1) Atlantic 10, (1) MAAC, (1) Ivy. (4) D2 players, all in the Northeast-10 and one D3 player in the Empire-8. Only one player did not play beyond HS. Additional one player is playing Milb and should be playing at the high A level this year.

These are all players that graduated HS in 2010 and are either 23 or 24 years old now. Not to bad for a team in Northern NJ from a very small area. 

Impressive!

Reminds me of my son's 14U team who also graduated HS in 2010, only. . . 3 played some other sport in HS and others were top players on their HS teams and all went on to play college ball at some level.  3 are currently playing pro ball.  That team was not in such a small area though (SF Bay Area). 

2020dad posted:

I still want to know where all these 12yo's throwing 70 come from?  I am going to have to get my pocket radar recalibrated!

I've still yet to see one except for the man children at LLWS. Kid goes to Cooperstown this summer maybe we can see one there, I want an autograph.

Size can play to the equivalent of talent or better at 12.  By 17, size alone will not trump talent.

So at 12, you have the kids who are larger than the other kids and can outperform all based on size alone.  Those kids will likely not be the best at 17 unless they also possess tools and work ethic.  Tools at 12 will be tools at 17, and so long as the kid is close to above average size, will likely be one of the better players as he progresses.

Using that same 2011 LLWS as an example, the then 5'11", 165# leader of his Warner Robins team will be going to Alabama as a QB.