Cards going young and more stats?

TW,
Orlando would be the one to make comment on this as she is a REAL card fan.

What I have heard about the man who is in charge of amateur scouting and player development is that he does not beleive in talented players sitting years in the system, and is working hard at developing their DR players. This is a big change from what used to be the philosophy under the old GM, that would be in acquiring and spending lots of money on free agents.

I am not sure if this is just an NL thing, as you see the emergence of many young players throughout both leagues.

TPM:

Great hearing from you and thanks for responding to my thread. I guess what interests me is the word "analytic" the author of the article has placed first in the sentence that also has the word "development". I agree that, at least from the writer's viewpoint, the cardinals have made a major shift in development philosophy [or more likely actually made it in 2004 or so] and are now in 2008 ready to run with it. They intend to put more money and effort into developing their minor league farm system and less effort into what incremental advantage can we get by trading our MLB player for their MLB player.

I was more interested in the question behind this philosophy that is not forefront of the article but might be read between the lines. What kind of players are they looking to "develp" through their revamped minor league system? Do you think "analytic" is a code word for moneyball? Of course, the word "moneyball" means many things to many people. To some, it means the Oakland As approach of draftng players with less than 5 tools with high OPS stats because they are cheap and bonuses are small. To others it means Bill James is working as an assistant to the owner of the Red Sox and their new [post John Henry] committment to patient hitters and expensive starting pitchers has gotten them two World Series rings in 4 years.

To me in its simpliest form moneyball from the MLB perspective means looking for position players in high school or college and drafting them while at least considering their statistics rather than the approach of most MLB franchise scouting [tail wags the dog] departments where the only discussion is whether the prospect has been observed to have ALL 5 "tools" that the organazation deems necessary before even considering them as a potential draftee. It means drafting pitchers with great walk to strikeout ratios and low ERA's even if they never hit 95 mph on the gun with a single pitch during an entire gmae. It means trying to field an entire starting team of hitters that are able, even with 2 strikes, to work the count against the opposition's starting pitcher so that he is gone and the bullpen is in with 2 outs in the fifth inning instead of being able to finish the sixth inning with the bullpen not getting up till the seventh inning [which is what every "smart" organization sets up a bullpen to do].

Take the Cardinals of the Walt Jockety era for example. As a GM his reputation was that he was able to trade one or more of his players [often an excellent minor league prospect] to his fellow GM for a guy that could immediately contribute to the MLB team. In fact he was considered by many to be the very best at this game. Now admittedly, I do not follow the Cardinals very closely but I believe Pulhos(sp?) was developed through their farm system, at least to some degree. Edmonds came over as an expensive free agent from the Angels I think and Scott Roland came over as an expensive free agent from the Phillies. Edgar Renteria was an expensive free agent from the Marlins I think that didn't work out and he got traded. Every free agent of the caliber of these three players means the Cardinals lost their first round draft pick to the Angels, Phillies and Marlins respectively the next year after the pickup [unless the player was offerred arbitration]. Plus the Angels, Phillies and Marlins got a supplimental first round pick *at the end of the first round but before the second round). The point is, by picking up the best free agents that year a MLB team not only has to significantly increase or divert its payroll in order to woo the free agent but it also has to sacrifice its top draft picks the following year. It is Bud Selig and the gang's way of saying WE DO NOT LIKE FREE AGENCY BECAUSE IT BIDS UP SALARIES-STOP IT OR SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES.

Back to topic. The AL has at least three what I would describe as organizations committed to some form of "moneyball". The are, in order of committment, Red Sox, Athletics and Blue Jays. Sandy Alderson is a GM somewhere still I think and if he has been granted the authority by his organization they are probably doing some form of it because he is a moneyball guy. If he is in the NL than that would be a NL moneyball team. But if not, I believe that the new and revised Cardinals might be the first team in the NL that seems to be heading for the moneyball brass ring. Only time will tell.

Anyone else out there care to add to or take issue with any of this?

TW344

TW344 - Great topic but this forum is often overlooked by many people. Your analysis is very interesting as well.

The Indians model should also be considered. Draft or trade for young players and pay them above market rates during their arbitration years. Support those players with solid but not spectacular role pplayers. Provides financial stability/certainty for the club and rewards the young player before they can file for arbitration. The Indians might also be a quasi-moneyball team but the key is finding the young players. The Indians 60 million dollar payroll was the second best team in baseball this year imho. The Rockies and D-Backs also follow very similar philosophies. I beleive you'll now see the same from the Pirates with their new management team in place.

quote:

The point is, by picking up the best free agents that year a MLB team not only has to significantly increase or divert its payroll in order to woo the free agent but it also has to sacrifice its top draft picks the following year. It is Bud Selig and the gang's way of saying WE DO NOT LIKE FREE AGENCY BECAUSE IT BIDS UP SALARIES-STOP IT OR SUFFER THE CONSEQUENCES.

Interesting point. By penalizing clubs with draft choices lost, is this a clever way around the collusion issues they had several years ago.

I don't know that any club is pure Moneyball --- like any other philosophy, I think there are clubs that are taking the principles into consideration in various degrees --- like the Padres with DePodesto there.

My take on the Cards at the moment is that they're a bit schizophrenic. Word was that Lunhow's strong influence, particularly with DeWitt, led to Jocketty's departure. Lunhow is a sabremtrics guy; Walt was a free agent-trade guy to "win now" (or to grossly overpay for a player on the wrong end of his career guy, but I digress ), so it was pretty obvious they weren't going to coexist happily.

Now, had we been successful in getting Antonetti, I'd say "hurray moneyball-youth movement". But we weren't AND they put Mozeliak in the spot . Whether he's sympathetic to Lunhow's philosphies or just Jocketty Lite is yet to be seen, though I believe what happens with Eckstein and Taguchi's contracts will give us an idea. Were they to be offered long-term contracts; Jocketty Lite. If it's short term or zippo, Lunhow's hold is stronger.

But this all begs the question --- how good is Lunhow? I mean, if he 'influenced' (as has been said) the '04 draft, and ran the last three, how come we're pretty much looking at Rasmus and Anderson and then a MAJOR falloff? Why did we pass on guys who are already contributing (or on the brink of) at the MLB level? Why did we have trouble with signing some '07 picks because they were looking for more than slot money --- didn't they ask that question before draft day????

Then there's TLR. I'm not a Faction Member by any stretch, but TLR & Duncan are all about the vets. It's as if Mo is there to be the compromise between Lunhow and TLR, but it's not as if there wasn't a prime opportunity to go after a new Manager at the end of the season ---- the organization wanted Tony back. Um....why, if Lunhow is the Golden Boy?

This offseason/ST is (I sincerely hope) going to be interesting: Will Mo establish himslef as his Own Man? Will some MiLB guys break through at ST to prove Lunhow's rep? Will TLR develop said players or stamp his foot for more vets? Who will the Cardinals be......

ClevlandDad:

Great post. I think you are right about the Indians. The youth philosophy goes all the way back to the John Hart years I think. They seem to be going good now but can they keep their starting pitching intact or will they go the free agent route?

I had not thought about MLB's draft pick compensation for free agents leaving being designed to get around a collusion suit but it certainly would be a good defense. 'Hey were just trying to help out the small market teams when they lose a star player. In now way are we trying to control the free agent market." Could be.

Orlando:

WOW. Great analysis. I figured Lunhow was sabermetrics but thanks for the confirmation. According to another article in the same issue of Baseball America titled "Cardinals act to bridge their divides" Mozeliak "met often with Luhnow and his staff" after he bacame permanent GM and "promoted one of Lunhow's lieutenants to head an analytic department that will report directly to the general manager."

TLR and where he comes down on all this is critical for the short term. My guess is the drafts since 2004 may have been researched by Lunhow and staff but TLR & Jockety made the early draft picks and let the ownerships' "moneyball experiment" wait for the later rounds in which they had no interest. Lunhow, with the ear of at least one owner, probably complained he hasn't got a fair shot at re-forming the team yet and ownership bought it; for now. Certainly a lot will become clearer with the 2008 draft and the veteran signings pre-season. For a change, I will be watching the Cardinals.

TW344

Interesting idea that TLR could have had more influence on the High Profile picks, and Lunhow & Co given the later rounds to play with. But, given that, do we have any reason to think that 'division of labor' would change in '08?

If Lunhow did have less influence over early picks it would certainly handicap his success rate, but the question still stands -- the players he chose have had 2.5 - 3.5 years. Aren't those exactly the type of players that emerge from the mid-to-later rounds? Where are they? Shouldn't we have heard about a few of them, even if only as Trade Bait?

Moneysabreballmetrics isn't yet the majority influence in drafts, surely the practitioners should have found some diamonds each draft that wouldn't have had the Traditional Stud status to be drafted in the first few rounds.

I perked right up with Lunhow's interest in youth, but the ho-hum Mo announcement coupled with TLR's contract made me question the setup. And the idea that DeWitt and the owners have any interest in a cohesive approach.

quote:

Edmonds came over as an expensive free agent from the Angels I think and Scott Roland came over as an expensive free agent from the Phillies. Edgar Renteria was an expensive free agent from the Marlins I think that didn't work out and he got traded.
Anyone else out there care to add to or take issue with any of this?

TW344

Jim Edmounds was not an expensive free agent. He was traded by the Angels. In return they got rookie 2nd baseman Adam Kennedy and a RHP Bonneville or something like that. Anyway, the Cardinals definitely got an awesome deal out of this. For a pitcher nobody knew and who lasted all of maybe 2-3 years and a 2nd baseman, they got a multi-year Gold Glove winner who also had some power. Then they ended up getting the 2nd baseman back after he had gained some experience and won a ring. At that time, I believe the Cardinals had Fernando Vina who was a Gold Glove winner once or twice at second base.

Scott Rolen was also a trade-in. I don't remember offhand who the Phillies got for him, I'm thinking Polanco.

I guess you could say that Albert Pujols was a "developed" player thru the Cardinal organization. If I remember correctly, he was drafted, and started jumping leagues pretty quickly until he made the ML roster.

Yadier Molina was a product of the Cardinals farm system, wasn't he?

I'm sad to see David Eckstein is headed out. They didn't look inside the program for his replacement either. They signed a Pirates player I believe.

Wow, so many things to think about. First, count me among the group not happy to have TLR back. As long as TLR/Duncan are here, the youth movement is on hold. C. Duncan and Ankiel only begrudgingly got shots because they had power off the charts. Reyes is really getting screwed by having Duncan continue as the pitching coach. Not that we couldn't see that coming. He's not a veteran and he's not a sinkerballer. Total opposite of what the master works with. I suspect Reyes will get traded and will become a fine pitcher in some other organization. I'd say the AL West would be a good spot for him.

As far as who controls the draft, who knows? Though an improvement in the Cards minor league system is talked about, if you look at the rankings of prospects we're not doing that great. Perhaps compared to 5 years ago we're better (vs. ourselves). But compared to other organizations we're still way behind.

And btw, Edmonds was received for Kennedy and Bottenfield. Kent Bottenfield won a bunch of games in 1999 with a really high ERA (around 4) because he had the best run support in the league. I was laughing my *** off when that trade was announced. Jocketty did pretty with that one, but he hasn't always been great. Take the Mulder deal. I thought it was a joke when it was announced. We gave away Danny Haren and Kiko Calero. Haren would be our #2 probably at this point (putting Carp #1 even though injured). Wainright could be #3.

If you really want to see where the Cards are at this point, look at the projected lineup for next year. We don't have a leadoff hitter now with Eckstein gone. Yadi, Pujols, Kennedy/Miles, Izturis, Rolen, Duncan, Edmonds, Ankiel.

Thanks YHF, Bottenfield. I was sort of close

I don't remember Kiko Calero?


Could Ankiel be the leadoff hitter?

Ankiel
Duncan
Pujols
Edmonds
Molina
Rolen
Izturis
Pitcher
Kennedy/Miles

I think we're going to see a lot of Miles this year either at 2nd or at 3rd. Rolen is going to have days off at least once a week.

This line up is more than capable of winning ballgames and I think the defense will be solid enough to win games as well. The hole remains in the #1 spot on the rubber. Reyes needs to go. He's a mental headcase. Duncan isn't his problem. Duncan doesn't cause Reyes to take 2 years between pitches.

Don't forget you've got Ludwick, Ryan, and Spiezio as likely bench players.

That would almost have to be the lineup as constructed. I like Miles and would prefer him over Kennedy. The problem with Ankiel is he'll hit about .265 - .270 and his OBP won't be much higher than that. He doesn't walk much. Strikes out a lot. That type of bat can work in an RBI spot but at least for me, it won't work for leadoff (not for long stretches anyway).

I like our bench. Not sure if Taguchi will be retained but I hope he is. We have 3 LH bats starting in the OF with RH Ludwick the 4th OF. We need another RH bat or two (I'm assuming Encarnacion is done).

I really don't think we should write Reyes off. I'm probably in the minority here. He goes to AAA and throws his game and dominates. He gets called up and the game is called totally differently. If you look at the games he pitched well in 2006, he rarely used the sinker. Moved the fastball in and out and up at times. In the games he struggled at the major league level he can't control/spot the sinker so to compensate he throws too many changeups. He obviously has some deception in his mechanics which is why so many hitters seem to be late on 91-92 mph 4-seamer. I've talked to Reyes and Tom House a couple times about this situation and those discussions confirmed what I suspected. Reyes totally feels like he's going against his grain trying to throw so many sinkers. Personally, I wish they'd just let him and Yadi just call their own game for about 10 starts and see what he can do. Having seen nearly all of his starts last year (most on TV) when he got hit hard was when he tried to throw sinkers that just stayed flat right in the middle of the plate. So what if he's a fly ball pitcher?? New Busch is a pretty fair stadium. If he simply yields too many HRs, trade him to an AL West team where fly ball pitching isn't penalized the same way.

I've still got a number of games on tivo and in the few starts where he has dominated there was a clear pattern...heavy usage of 4 seam FB, not many sinkers, not many chageups.

Perhaps TW is putting the 'expensive' label on Edmonds and Rolen because they became expensive; symptomatic of Jocketty, long, highly-paid contracts were given to older, injury-prone players. Our Walt was never a believer in the old maxim about how it's better to lose a player a year too soon than a year too late.

Rentaria, IIRC, left as a free agent because the Cards didn't offer him enough. His decision to go to the Red Sox at the time was odd, given how media-shy he was in St Louis....where the Cards are treated as royalty.

And yes, the Cards drafted Yadi in 2000.

The St Louis Cardinals just hired a VP from MLB who handled arbitration cases....a money man...he will be handling contracts, etc.... HMMMM.......Money ball is being set up in St Louis..
as far as Reyes; let him continue developing in the Minor Leagues...develop the slider or get rid of him.. WE cannot afford another Jason Marquis who always felt that HE had the right philosophy for his success...just ask the Cubs...he wasn't even in the starting rotation for the playoffs again for a different team..
If the Cardinals don't get some pitching real soon; good starter via the trade route then 2008 only looks as a repeat..owners making alot of money from Cardinal fans packing the stadium and plenty of finger pointing to Tony and the coaching staff...Just remember; they can only deal with the hand dealt to them by ownership
Younger team no doubt; no pitching= a long season for Redbird fans.. Improve the pitching or it could be another ST LOUIS RAMS DISASTER!

To me, the Reyes and Marquis situations were different. Marquis just went against the game plan vs. the opponent, while Reyes can't consistently throw the sinker the Duncan wants. Reyes tries to follow the game plan, but when the sinker's not working he and Yadi go to way too many changeups.

Well, Jim Edmonds is gone. David Eckstein is gone. Scott Rolen, I believe, will be taken by somebody or he will sit. Him and Tony just are not getting along and I think fault lies with both of them. His defense will be missed. So Tacuchi is also gone.

So, who takes over in centerfield? News articles are suggesting Rasmus will jump Triple A and be the everyday centerfield at Busch next summer. What about Ankiel in center? Articles say Rasmus is not ready for the major leagues. I know nothing about him. Is he a possible leadoff hitter?

Who plays third if Rolen is out? Miles? Ryan? Surely the third baseman they got from the Padres is not ready. I believe he was a Class A player last year.

What's going to happen with the starting rotation?

The Cardinals have a lot of work to do in the off season still. They need to turn things around.