College Baseball Reality

Those are good questions.  I'll be interested in hearing the answers

In a lot of the best Power Five D1 programs, the reality is that a college commitment is an invitation to battle for playing time & even a roster spot as a college freshman.  I would suggest that a vast majority of high school kids have no clue what they are getting themselves into, especially the kids who have never faced adversity or had to battle for a spot throughout their   High School/youth "careers".

A lot of the top players have been handed things their whole lives and are told how great they are over & over again... It can be an eye opening experience

There are three levels of D1 ball. They overlap. A competitive mid major may be better than a major conference bottom feeder. There are some programs in mid major conferences that are perennial tournament teams (Fullerton, Coastal, etc.)

There are 297 D1 programs. They are not created equal. Generically there’s major conference, mid major and the rest. Given your geographic point of reference I would call the MAAC part of “the rest.” A kid who can’t even dream of walking on at a ranked program could be a four year starter at a MAAC. 

What the prospect and his parents need to do is take an honest view of ability and target the right level. The player should be looking for a quality baseball and educational experience at whatever level it’s possible.

I watched a D3 regional this past season. It isn’t any less competitive and intense than a D1 regional. It’s just a different level of ball played at a different speed. But having seen a friend’s son in a D3 national championship dog pile about ten years ago it didn’t look any less fun than a D1 dog pile. And the two pitchers facing off throwing 90+ were both drafted. 

At the D1 level the attrition rate to first college played is about 50%. One reason is there are thirty-five very capable former all everything high school players battling for 18-20 playing time spots. A second reason is players selecting the dream school they loved that didn’t love them back (liked them as backup insurance) over a program that showed love. 

You seem very focused on D1 lately. Is your son a D1 prospect? 

That varies greatly depending on the school.  I looked at this area pretty close when we were looking at schools.  If you trace the teams roster, its pretty easy to look at but time consuming.  We only did this for schools that we were interested in seriously.  

Look at the roster from 4 years back and see how many are still there at the end of 3 years, 4 years.  its pretty telling.  there are many reasons kids leave, so if you see a bad trend investigate further.  At first glance, the more competitive the program, the quicker the turnover. The more competitive schools aren't gonna give many "second chances", they have got alot more kids that want that spot on the roster and/or scholarship.

wareagle posted:

That varies greatly depending on the school.  I looked at this area pretty close when we were looking at schools.  If you trace the teams roster, its pretty easy to look at but time consuming.  We only did this for schools that we were interested in seriously.  

Look at the roster from 4 years back and see how many are still there at the end of 3 years, 4 years.  its pretty telling.  there are many reasons kids leave, so if you see a bad trend investigate further.  At first glance, the more competitive the program, the quicker the turnover. The more competitive schools aren't gonna give many "second chances", they have got alot more kids that want that spot on the roster and/or scholarship.

This.  And this answers your question about looking at rosters/commitments.

None of it really matters. If your son is a fit for the program and conference then he should be fine. Every time I'm at a game and hear "this kid is committed to _____" my thoughts are either - makes sense/really? A lot of the time when a kid leaves a school he was never a good fit to begin with. Those are the "really?" kids. Every "Really?" player I've seen was either off the roster after the first year or ended up getting very minimal playing time -usually in mail in spots. 

If your son is getting interest from coaches and you have to ask yourself - why him - then he is probably better served a step or two down. 2019 had interest from some stellar teams. He even joked "are they sure they have the right name? There's probably some 6'4 kid in Florida throwing 95 waiting for his call from the _______ coach." It wasn't a good fit. And he knew that. 

Go to a school that suits his playing level and increase his likelihood of remaining at the school. 

Francis7 posted:

“Kid signs his NLI and goes off to college.  He will play all 4 years, unless he is drafted and signs, and never leave that school during that time.”

How often does that fairytale come true?  More specifically, how often will a kid play in 4-year D1 school if he is a freshmen?  What about as a sophomore?

Further, what’s the percentage of kids who end up transferring from the D1 school that they started with?  Is like the divorce rate, 50%?

The 50% number comes up often here but I don't recall the source. Based on anecdotal evidence it seems to be true.

I think a lot of it comes down  to this question: "Is your son a student-athlete or is he an athlete-student?"  If he's the latter, and he commits to a D1 program and gets zero playing time as a freshman, then in many if not most cases he's going to transfer or drop down to Juco, & do whatever he has to do to get on the field, as he should.  But let's say he's at an Ivy or a "Public Ivy" or really any other school he'd attend without baseball.  In that case he probably returns year after year ready to battle for playing time and also ready to stick  it out if he doesn't get on the field as much as he would like.

Francis - No easy answers to this one.  If it was easy, there would be no transfers, ever.   The title of your thread is appropriately titled because very few understand just how competitive it is to get ANY playing time hence the high transfer rates out of some schools.  As others have suggested the devil is in the details of the specific school, NCAA Division and their respective program.   You've got to do a lot of research.  

To answer your question directly, the closest it comes to a "D1 fairytale" (your words) is with the Patriot League (Army, Navy, Lafayette, Lehigh, Bucknell, and Holy Cross) as well as the Ivy League (Brown, Columbia, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, and Yale).   Very few transfers-out and a very high 4 year participation rate, however challenging in other ways.   Signing an NLI is childsplay when you consider what the Army and Navy guys are committing to.  Again, it is on a case by case basis.

I brought the 50% number to the board. I found it in a BA article about eight years ago. 

The reality is that there is not an answer to the OP's scenarios.  Why?  Because no two situation nor programs are the same.  When my daughter played, five freshmen showed up.  They all started from day one and all played four years.  That is so rare!  As you can imagine, there were several transfers out of older girls.  

Francis7 posted:

....

How often does that fairytale come true?  ....

There are no fairytales in college baseball.  Dreams become labors of love with plenty of highs and PLENTY of lows.  You do your best, as you are doing, to try to help your son pick the best option to pursue those efforts.  Even taking every possible step to assure best choice, things change and there are things that you just won't know until you're there. 

Meanwhile, DON"T FORGET to fully enjoy your son's dream days and HS experience. 

I keep reminding you because you keep coming back with different ways to ask very similar questions about the finite points of the recruitment pursuit, which may or may not indicate you are neglecting the present a bit.  We never hear you talk about how much he or you or both are enjoying these last few years with him in the household, enjoying the experiences of life with a HS teen, enjoying the day at the ballpark today.  Maybe that's just the way you choose to utilize this forum.  I don't know.  Just seems strange so worth repeating.

In fact, I think I'll try to answer your OP question another way...

Yes, the chances that things don't work out for your son with his college choice for baseball are statistically quite high, so be sure to fully embrace and enjoy him as someone other than a baseball player... you know, just in case  

Fairytale?

Son's Ivy:

• 7 years (add in three years above him, plus his class, and the three classes behind him),

• 50 recruited (no NLIs in Ivies),

• 49 graduated (47 in 4 years, the other 2 in 5 [signed as juniors]),

• 45 played all four years (the two signed juniors played three).

• EVERY SINGLE PLAYER WHO HAD REAL PRO-POTENTIAL WENT ON AND PLAYED PROBALL.

I recall Tony Gwynn, when he was HC of SDSU, regularly bringing in classes of 20; of those 20, 3 - 4 lasted three years.

It's about your priorities. It's about understanding what you give up and what you get in exchange. It's about understanding the odds and perhaps choosing to hedge rather than being all in on a lottery ticket.

Most players can't make the Ivy academic or baseball skills cut; but every player who does can seize that opportunity  - without giving up any baseball opportunities. 

So, there are indeed D1 fairytales.

My son attended a mid-D1 school.  Looking back, in MY eyes, I would have preferred him to go to a low-D1 so he would have a chance to consistently play some ball and get a good education. I thought this would be best for him.  He had some talent yet didn't get many offers.  Son was confident he could compete at any level D1, wouldn't consider anything lower.  Compete is one thing, playing is another.  Point is, you never know until you get there and experience it first hand.  He ended up playing every game and inning for 3 years (minus a couple of games with an injury).  I would have never predicted this, he of course would have said no worries.  So many variables go into becoming a pro, some you cannot control.  For me still, the baseball reality is getting a degree using baseball as a discount.

Playing time? Earned.

My son was penciled in as a SP his first three years BEFORE each season. By the third week of each season he was in the bullpen. By the fifth week of each season he was pulling pine splinters from his tush. (An incredibly difficult time for dad; son learned to deal with the failures [he really had no choice].)

In his fourth year, he was penciled in as a splinter puller. By the middle of fall practice he was named captain; by the end of fall ball he was penciled in as a SP; by the beginning of the season he was #1 SP; by the third week, teams were bunting on him just to break up no hitters; on his last game (v Fenways team), scouts from 30 teams were watching (both pitchers were being scouted and ended up single digit draftees).

Baseball is - to our family - unpredictable; all the kid can do is his best. Lots of hard lessons were learned on the way; but, baseball was very, very good to him and those lessons transcended baseball.

 [Late add: had he been playing in ANY OTHER CONFERENCE which had approached him, his experience would have been, (cough, cough) different. Which partially explains my clear Ivy bias. He would never have had the chance for the magical breakthrough season.]

cabbagedad posted:

Francis7 posted:

....

How often does that fairytale come true?  ....

 

Meanwhile, DON"T FORGET to fully enjoy your son's dream days and HS experience. 

 

I think the is huge, college baseball is a job, period, end of conversation. Coaches will be different then what you think, you will be treated poorly at times and you have no rights. To be honest as a business owner I can tell you with virtual certainty if our company treated my employees the way players get treated most would quit, I would get sued and I would have to settle out of court because there is no way to defend the actions...at the most basic level it is supply and demand, there are many more players then the demand for them and you will treated as such. To expect anything else you are in for a rude awakening. 

That being said, the rewards can be great, friendship, experiences brothers for life. Often times players become closer because the coach is such an ass they need each other to succeed. 

there is no fairytale IMO. 

Edit - I have no frame of reference for IVY observation. 

RJM posted:

I brought the 50% number to the board. I found it in a BA article about eight years ago. 

I believe the number as a general rule.  But I phrase it is the number of kids that make the roster as a freshman, and are still there as a Junior.  It's not just transfers, but some kids let baseball go. Some to focus on school, some to general life things.

Francis, everybody stops playing at some time.  No shame in going to a D1 and things not working out.  Eyes wide open.

I have been surprised to see how many of my 2017-8 son's friends/acquaintances who have gone D1 are either not playing or have already transferred out of their school, and usually to a lesser situation. Also know of a guy who went to a JUCO, and has already transferred to a top 25 program after one GREAT fall season.  The attrition seems worse, the better the school is baseball wise. I think that the Big 10 schools might hold on to players a bit longer than the other P5 conferences, but I don't have any data to back that up. 

   Know another coupla kids who are killing it in mid majors...one threw over 80 innings.  Who cares if you are at a great program if your ass is on the bench?

To expand on Fenway and Goosegg, in the Ivies/Patriot many of the players potentially could have gone to a D1 Big State U and possibly play in their Junior year or more realistically hope to play in their Senior year. They may have chosen the Ivies/Patriot with more certainty of playing 3-4 years. Ivies/Patriot only recruit 6-10 players a year with 0 transfers in.  My son's recruited class experience was: 9 recruited with 1 stopped playing to concentrate on Bio-Medical Engineering Degree. The remaining 8 contributed all 4 years and all graduated while 7 obtained employment before end of the senior season.  The 8th went on to play Independent ball.

57special posted:

 

   Know another coupla kids who are killing it in mid majors...one threw over 80 innings.  Who cares if you are at a great program if your ass is on the bench?

    

For some kids, absolutely agree. The point I was trying to make above is that for others, the question could be "who cares if your ass is on the bench if you are at a great program?"

And that's not just Ivies.  Could be many schools from UNC to Michigan to Cal.  I follow Cal, and most players I have seen hang in there as long as they can, playing time or not.  They want the Cal degree.