College Or Pro(Read This)

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Originally posted by Sook:

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I told yah, my dream is playing pro ball. Can't think of doing nothing else. i pratice everyday to become the best. when it comes down to it which round drafted probably wont care to me.

I would say the above most likely describes 98% of how many feel at your age.
Keep working for your dream, but don't forget about school, something many seems to forget is very important.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
Dad04,
The question is where is the transition? By the time players get to high A there's no comparison. I'm not sure that the better college pitchers are as good in general as low A either. My guess is that the top 30% of D1 college pitchers could compete very well in rookie ball or short season A. I don't know. You've got the other 70% of D1 pitchers vs. talented, but inexperienced kids out of HS, etc.

Fungo,
I don't think we're disagreeing too much. I'm just making the point that not ALL of the best pitchers are in the pros even if most will eventually end up there. Some of the guys who have gone on to the pros were sitting behind a younger pitcher who is still in college. For example, how many pitchers were drafted from SDSU will be better next season than Strasburg?

CADad

Over the years in Florida I have seen alot of high A, AA games, a few Rookie level and MLB games. I have seen dozens of D1 games, been to just two regional tournaments. My personal opinion is 30% being competitive is maybe too high. Short season has alot of college all conference types and latin players and high schoolers who have shown ability to adjust and not gotten hurt. 30% of D1 pitchers is about 1,300 guys. Considering only about half of all D1 pitchers get meaningful innings to start with, is saying half of those guys could start or do well in the Pioneer or NYP leagues or even GCL. I don't see it. The depth of pitching staffs was tested this year with more 5 game weeks.

If a college team has 3 or 4 pitchers drafted they were probably near the top of their conference, if they could hit at all.

D1 college pitchers just aren't as good and there are less good ones on each team compared to even low level pro baseball. By the way, hitters aren't nearly as good either, even at the lowest levels. College teams are simply not as deep, talentwise.

I am not trying to denegrate college athletics, but I don't mistake it for pro baseball, jmo.

One, maybe two pitchers per D1 college baseball team would be successful at the lowest levels of pro baseball.

Nearly every time I go to a Florida State League game there is some sort of web gem and few, if any, errors. Nearly every time I go to D1 game there is at least one routine play booted or blown and 5 or 6 errors.

My sliding scale;

HS----D1----------------------Hi A

There is magic in the word D1, apparently.

Parents who would never consider suggesting that the most competitive hs play is similiar to college ball can be quick to compare D1 to pro. Just as only the best hs players (1 in 10, per Our Bob's figures) get a chance to play in college, the odds shrink yet again to play pro.

This year there were 785 pitchers drafted from hs, JC & all levels of 4 year. Using Bob's figures again, there were 26,276 JC & college players at all levels. WAG, a third of the team could be pitchers, so even if every single pitcher drafted came out of the JC/college ranks (which we know they didn't), that's 1:11 drafted. And they're pitching against position players who will be drafted at a rate of about 1 out of 25.

It's easier to look dominant when throwing against teams who have maybe one guy who will ever play pro.

Of course, if you're watching the CWS and hearing about 3 or 4 guys drafted from a single team, the prospects (no pun intended) look rosier. But that's the elite of D1, not D1 as a whole.

And not all college pitchers are successful (or position players, for that matter, when you see guys who hit .400 in their conference happy to be hitting .250 in short season), comparing their college ERA with their pro. Pitching to wood instead of metal and pitching to teams full of hitters you only saw in the #3 or 4 slots in college will do that.

Dad04,
Well stated. Hard to disagree.

Orlando,
I think if you check and see the D1 teams that reached the CWS other than the few who came from weak conferences had more than 3 or 4 drafted on average.

BTW, that 1 in 10 number from HS to college doesn't hold true when you are talking about some of the stronger HS leagues. My guess is our league is about 1 in 2 or 1 in 3 making it to college ball at some level and a bit higher if you consider the ones who go pro out of HS. This year was a bit better than normal with 5 drafted out of the league. That's about 1 in 10 seniors being drafted out of the league. I think the league's 4th place team had 2 in the first 4 rounds. I believe 6 of our team's graduating seniors will be playing college ball, although only a couple will be D1.

Interesting discusion.
CAdad,
Lot of it depends on the level that you are watching.
My experience watching the higher D1 level for a few years, I used to think that it could compare to lower level pro ball. Not so. That was my perception watching some of the best play in college baseball. Something i also found very interesting. The very top level D1's spend a lot of money on maybe 4-5 players who will make an impact. The better your top players the better your team will perform, however depth can drop off suddenly.
I found it very interesting that many teams that had many first round picks dropped off early in the CWS while those with more overall depth had a longer run. If you noticed, when the top players didn't perform nwither did the team.

The 1 in 2,3 very much depends on where you may play HS ball and where scouts and college coaches concentrate. You may find higher numbers indicative of some states where immense talent can be found (California for one) and population higher but I don't think that's a general rule to follow under most circumstances.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:

Orlando,
I think if you check and see the D1 teams that reached the CWS other than the few who came from weak conferences had more than 3 or 4 drafted on average.

Which is why I said that's the elite of D1, not D1 as a whole after you sugested that 30% of D1 pitchers could make it at the lower levels of pro.

Of course there will be higher concentrations of drafted players in particular baseball hotbeds, some even because of the coattail effect. Postulating an average doesn't mean it has to be spread at that rate.

Every year or so this discussion comes up. Last year I asked my son his opinion, having played D1 and both SS & High A. His opinion? He just laughed.

DO TOP PROSPECTS PRATICE EVERYDAY TO SEE THERE BASEBALL DREAMS?

JUST WONDERING BECAUSE I HAVE A LOT OF FREINDS THAT SAY THEY WANNA PLAY PRO.(BUT PRATICE ATLEAST OUNCE A WEEK)

I PRATICE MY GAME EVERYDAY....AND HOPEFULLY I'LL PAY OFF IN THE LONG RUN.

I PRATICE HARDER WHEN THINKING THERES SOMEONE OUT THERE PRATICING EVEN HARDER THAN I AM.

MY MOTTO LOL

Sook,
There may very well be some that don't work as hard as you think that they should who might move ahead of you someday.
It's not how hard you work but whether you are doing the right work to improve yourself. Also do know that growing bodies need rest, and even many pro baseball players do not work at it everyday.
I agree that you must have a good work ethic in anything that you do to succeed. But don't get too hung up that someone is going to like you better because you work harder.

Turn off the caps please, thanks.

so stop praticing??? lol

is it wrong that i pratice to become better??

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even many pro baseball players do not work at it everyday.

In his first year of full season A ball, a friend's son was told to tone it down with practicing or he wouldn't physically make it through the long season. He was going to outwork everyone.

can somebody answer me

background on me 15 yrs old varsity starting attending first camp evaulation this summer.

Since im young, i thought all i had to focus on was bettering myself as a baseball player.

I don't get it lol, it's like you guys are saying don't pratice???

Sook,

Nobody said to stop practicing. You're young, there is a lot of work to be done no doubt. Practice smart, study smart, live smart. Better yourself as a person first, and player second. Let the game come to you. Take it all in and don't for a second think that you've got it all figured out.

lol, yeah i got all that, i thought i was a bad player for trying to pursue my dream and trying to become better.

where did you read that?

no, i never knew there were prepacautions with praticing

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Originally posted by spizzlepop:
Sook,

Nobody said to stop practicing. You're young, there is a lot of work to be done no doubt. Practice smart, study smart, live smart. Better yourself as a person first, and player second. Let the game come to you. Take it all in and don't for a second think that you've got it all figured out.

Great words of wisdom Spizzle!

^ wat is he talking bout? noones talking bout not going to college lol

Sook - you are starting to wear out your welcome here imho. We love having young people posting here but at the same time we don't need 15 year olds on here laughing out loud, showing disrespect, and not apparently understanding what adults are trying to say. Maybe you ought to read a few years before attempting to post. Otherwise, show a little more humility, respect for your audience, and try to blend in nicely/politely with the community.