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Well, it's about that time...  as campuses start to open up and baseball programs gather, there will be a flurry of information in the coming weeks about which of the Seniors from last season's abbreviated season will take advantage of the extra year of eligibility and return.

So far, in the short sample I am seeing, the numbers are higher than I expected.  I would be curious to hear from others, as things roll out, what they are seeing and hearing.

The ramblings I am hearing, mostly from online articles (in some cases, final decisions haven't been made)...

South Alabama           4 of 6

Mizzou          4

Wichita St          3  of 5

UT Martin          5 of 7

JMU          at least 3 of 8

Monmouth          4

Texas A&M          likely 4 of 6

 

Original Post
@cabbagedad posted:

Well, it's about that time...  as campuses start to open up and baseball programs gather, there will be a flurry of information in the coming weeks about which of the Seniors from last season's abbreviated season will take advantage of the extra year of eligibility and return.

So far, in the short sample I am seeing, the numbers are higher than I expected.  I would be curious to hear from others, as things roll out, what they are seeing and hearing.

The ramblings I am hearing, mostly from online articles (in some cases, final decisions haven't been made)...

South Alabama           4 of 6

Mizzou          4

Wichita St          3  of 5

UT Martin          5 of 7

JMU          at least 3 of 8

Monmouth          4

Texas A&M          likely 4 of 6

 

Texas State               9 of 10 

@cabbagedad posted:

Well, it's about that time...  as campuses start to open up and baseball programs gather, there will be a flurry of information in the coming weeks about which of the Seniors from last season's abbreviated season will take advantage of the extra year of eligibility and return.

So far, in the short sample I am seeing, the numbers are higher than I expected.  I would be curious to hear from others, as things roll out, what they are seeing and hearing.

The ramblings I am hearing, mostly from online articles (in some cases, final decisions haven't been made)...

South Alabama           4 of 6

Mizzou          4

Wichita St          3  of 5

UT Martin          5 of 7

JMU          at least 3 of 8

Monmouth          4

Texas A&M          likely 4 of 6

 Texas State 9 of 10

TCU 8 of 8

 

Great topic.  These numbers on par with what I've learned and heard.  Roughly 70% give or take.  

A buddy and I very much disagreed on how many would return, but I "won" by surmising the majority would.  He is logical and looked at it with reason and thought a 20% return rate would be on the high end of things.  The logical move is to get on with your actual career and life. Me, the cynic, thinks that an alarmingly high percentage of players and parents have delusions of playing pro ball despite the numbers/math.  This generation has been playing travel ball since age 8 and swinging $300+ bats since the same age. They've had high dollar private lessons and many have gotten on airplanes to play little league baseball.  Many were given more of everything before they reached puberty than former pros did their whole lives.  In my mind, this generation of players and parents will release their grip from the pro ball dream only when it's pried from their cold, dead fingers.  Incredibly hard to stop a train that is carrying that much time and money investment.  The optimist in me wants to believe that kids are coming back because they love the game and want just one more year to play it.  

@old_school posted:

Who cares and why does that matter?

Well, assuming you are referring to TPM's question, I would think that anyone presented with the likelihood of having to pay more money than they did previously for an extra year of college they didn't necessarily plan on (in fact, expected to have money finally coming in instead of more going out) would care.  It would likely factor heavily into the decision for most, wouldn't it?

 

@DanJ posted:

Great topic.  These numbers on par with what I've learned and heard.  Roughly 70% give or take.  

A buddy and I very much disagreed on how many would return, but I "won" by surmising the majority would.  He is logical and looked at it with reason and thought a 20% return rate would be on the high end of things.  The logical move is to get on with your actual career and life. Me, the cynic, thinks that an alarmingly high percentage of players and parents have delusions of playing pro ball despite the numbers/math.  This generation has been playing travel ball since age 8 and swinging $300+ bats since the same age. They've had high dollar private lessons and many have gotten on airplanes to play little league baseball.  Many were given more of everything before they reached puberty than former pros did their whole lives.  In my mind, this generation of players and parents will release their grip from the pro ball dream only when it's pried from their cold, dead fingers.  Incredibly hard to stop a train that is carrying that much time and money investment.  The optimist in me wants to believe that kids are coming back because they love the game and want just one more year to play it.  

There certainly is some truth here, but I also think the pragmatic thing to do right now is stay in school.  Most baseball players at most D1 schools do not graduate in 4 years.  Even if they did graduate, the job market is not great for new hires at 14% unemployment and an economy propped up by a seemingly endless supply of stimulus checks.  The best thing to do in most circumstances is to stay in school, finish undergrad or begin working on a grad degree.

@Pedaldad posted:

There certainly is some truth here, but I also think the pragmatic thing to do right now is stay in school.  Most baseball players at most D1 schools do not graduate in 4 years.  Even if they did graduate, the job market is not great for new hires at 14% unemployment and an economy propped up by a seemingly endless supply of stimulus checks.  The best thing to do in most circumstances is to stay in school, finish undergrad or begin working on a grad degree.

Are you attempting to argue that there is more involved in the decision then the cost of the school year and how much you are now paying for it? Are you also saying that it possible to go to school like vast majority of the kids who only love sport and actually have to pay tuition to attend and more to actually play...this line of thought stuns me!!

There are lots of reasons why people drive different cars, go to different schools and join different types of clubs. The simple mindedness I read on here can be amazing at times.

@TPM posted:

I think a good question might be, how many returning  will have to pay their own way!

 

Bingo.  Given the uncertainty of anything in this world right now, I just don't understand why anyone would roll the dice on trying to play another year at 21-22 years old on their dime.   Nothing is a given for next Spring.  Why go through this when you could be bringing money in rather than paying to play college baseball.   I loved being in college and being a college athlete 100 years ago, but I couldn't wait to get out, make some money and start my life.  I just don't understand this need to try to play another year in a risky environment.  What am I missing here?

What I do understand are people returning to get their graduate degrees or play baseball on somebody else's dime.  That makes total sense.

I have a senior (who graduated), and he is going back to play.   He and the other returning seniors feel they need to finish their career on their terms.  Whether they get drafted or end their career in 2021, the choice is theirs. What is the harm of playing one more year?  Hopefully, there will be a 2021 season, and these kids can get the closure they deserve.  If not, they gave it one more try .  I really don't feel we should judge anyone on the decision that they make-- it is their life.

It appears that seniors are returning at about a 70% rate, as someone else mentioned in a previous post. It also seems like coaches are finding money for most of these seniors, often at the expense of incoming freshman recruits. Is that ethical? I would argue that it’s not. But I stated months ago (and some disagreed) that coaches of competitive programs were going to do this. They are going to take a proven performer that they can trust (for another year) over an incoming unproven freshman 100 times out of 100. So I’m gonna assume that most seniors are returning because they are getting money, haven’t yet graduated, and know they are gonna be on the field. They want to finish what they started AND they aren’t yet qualified to enter the work world. I’m the same as Fenway in that I was ready to be done by the end of my senior year 100 years ago, but times are different now. I was walking into a great job market and had a job waiting for me when I graduated. Times are a little different now. 

Curious to know how many seniors are coming back to play baseball at D3 high-academic colleges vs moving on with their lives since they aren't getting athletic scholarships to begin with and many play at small liberal arts colleges that don't have graduate school programs to enable them to stick around a 5th year and get a masters degree.

There's been postings of the D1 transfer portal list but has anyone seen the D3 transfer portal list? Would be interesting to see how many D3 players are looking to transfer, I suspect not nearly as many.

@Zoom 2020 posted:

Curious to know how many seniors are coming back to play baseball at D3 high-academic colleges vs moving on with their lives since they aren't getting athletic scholarships to begin with and many play at small liberal arts colleges that don't have graduate school programs to enable them to stick around a 5th year and get a masters degree.

There's been postings of the D1 transfer portal list but has anyone seen the D3 transfer portal list? Would be interesting to see how many D3 players are looking to transfer, I suspect not nearly as many.

At my sons HA D3, 1 Sr has confirmed he is coming back.  He was injured last year and is two classes short of a double major.  Interestingly, several of the Jr's & Soph are talking about taking a semester off (this fall since its online) and going to school 4.5 yrs.  They get to play an extra semester and not go to school online (hopefully).  Kinda makes sense.

So are the seniors with 30k to plunk down or borrow potentially on top of current student debt coming back for a 8th year at age 25 when spring 2021 is cancelled or runs for about 20 games?

Its not going to be with subsidized loans, because those only run for 4 years.

I reckon we will find out. And find out which coaches will ruin their program near future doing so when 2 recruiting classes bail.

@SoCal OG posted:

At my sons HA D3, 1 Sr has confirmed he is coming back.  He was injured last year and is two classes short of a double major.  Interestingly, several of the Jr's & Soph are talking about taking a semester off (this fall since its online) and going to school 4.5 yrs.  They get to play an extra semester and not go to school online (hopefully).  Kinda makes sense.

The semester off seemed like a possibility in discussions with our kid until he started factoring in the fact that he didn't have a good job, internship or other activity for the fall, and he wants to be done with undergrad and get on with his career (or grad school, depending on how things shake out) plus I think he felt he'd be kind of bailing on the team.  So he decided to make the the best of of a bad situation and stay in school for the whole  year. 

What I didn't know until after we had this conversation is how financial aid is treated. We were told that the family's expected family contribution (EFC) for the academic year would remain the same regardless of how many semesters a student attended.   Uh oh!  Assume 50% aid at a school where the cost of attendance (COA)  is $70K.  If your son takes the semester off, your EFC for this year is the full COA - $35K.  And it's likely to be another $35K next year.  So you're not only giving up a year of the kid's earning potential, you're forfeiting at least $35K in mom and dad's money.  Hope the kid enjoys himself!

Last edited by JCG
@fenwaysouth posted:

Bingo.  Given the uncertainty of anything in this world right now, I just don't understand why anyone would roll the dice on trying to play another year at 21-22 years old on their dime.   Nothing is a given for next Spring.  Why go through this when you could be bringing money in rather than paying to play college baseball.   I loved being in college and being a college athlete 100 years ago, but I couldn't wait to get out, make some money and start my life.  I just don't understand this need to try to play another year in a risky environment.  What am I missing here?

What I do understand are people returning to get their graduate degrees or play baseball on somebody else's dime.  That makes total sense.

 

I guess it is all relative, what would you give to be a kid and play baseball for another? I figure they have the rest of their lives to work and build a career....I would give a whole lot for that year again, I think most would 

Old School,

Interesting.   So, you're going to go back to college (because in this example the NCAA is allowing you) to pay $30-50K for the possibility to play 2021 college baseball in a country that can't decide how to handle pandemic policies at the national, state, city or local educational level while dealing with economic challenges.  

Clearly, you have the means to sling some cash around and roll the dice.  I wish you well.

Again, I totally get people coming back for grad school or taking advantage of athletic scholarhips on the school's dime. 

Particularly among HAs, I would expect a scenario more likely than taking a 5th (or 6th) year of college may be to enroll in grad school at a D3.  Good for programs like UChicago, WuStL, Emory, Hopkins that have well-known grad programs in a variety of fields.  I know some of these programs picked up former Ivy players as grad students for 2021.  Maybe less good for undergrads hoping for playing time at those schools.  

@old_school posted:

 

I guess it is all relative, what would you give to be a kid and play baseball for another? I figure they have the rest of their lives to work and build a career....I would give a whole lot for that year again, I think most would 

I'm reminded of the example they use in business school to explain opportunity cost.  Because that is in play when a kid defers a year of working/earning to go back to school.  It went like this.....if you own a hotel and you don't rent a room on Friday night, you can't rent it twice on Saturday night to make up for the lost night.

So it's not just the cost of the tuition- it's the missed income that wasn't earned. 

I'm reminded of the example they use in business school to explain opportunity cost.  Because that is in play when a kid defers a year of working/earning to go back to school.  It went like this.....if you own a hotel and you don't rent a room on Friday night, you can't rent it twice on Saturday night to make up for the lost night.

So it's not just the cost of the tuition- it's the missed income that wasn't earned. 

That year of earning should be the lowest earning year of your career, if you are in grad school it isn’t wasted and if you are really successful with the career you spent 150 to 250k to get educated for those first year earnings are essentially nothing...just a matter of perspective I guess. 

I feel the you are referencing the business professor wanting to discuss widgets in back to school. 

@old_school posted:

That year of earning should be the lowest earning year of your career, if you are in grad school it isn’t wasted and if you are really successful with the career you spent 150 to 250k to get educated for those first year earnings are essentially nothing...just a matter of perspective I guess. 

I feel the you are referencing the business professor wanting to discuss widgets in back to school. 

I love the Rodney Dangerfield movie you reference.  Aside from that, my counterpoint to your post is anything but Fantasyland, where you may recall Rodney suggested they locate the Widget factory. 

Important life decisions usually either “feel good” or they “do good”.  It’s rare a decision like the one facing Corona seniors would do both. 

Last edited by Tres Elakes 24

How money works?

Lets see? If you owe the bankster $10,000 you have a problem..... if you owe the bankster $10,000,000 the bankster has a problem.

When the student loan payment is either A.) more than your car payment, or B.) eating your ability to save and get ahead from inside, or C.) deferred on a hope and prayer, or D.) in non dischargeable default then you may have a problem..........unless someone else has bankrolled your way.

Baseball is fast becoming the sport of the monied and entitled to 'play'.

 

 

@Showball$ posted:

How money works?

Lets see? If you owe the bankster $10,000 you have a problem..... if you owe the bankster $10,000,000 the bankster has a problem.

When the student loan payment is either A.) more than your car payment, or B.) eating your ability to save and get ahead from inside, or C.) deferred on a hope and prayer, or D.) in non dischargeable default then you may have a problem..........unless someone else has bankrolled your way.

Baseball is fast becoming the sport of the monied and entitled to 'play'.

 

 

The truth is that the travel ball industry has to be viewed as an activity and not an investment. Any money spent has to be discretionary. It isn’t an investment in any sense of the word as you should expect no ROI. The problem is that it isn’t sold that way by travel ball clubs. It’s sold as we can get your kid a scholarship if you pay our fee to play for us - and btw private lessons are on your own dime too. But at this point that is no secret. As a parent (consumer) you should do your diligence and learn that. But year after year parents fall for the sales pitch as they want to help their kids dreams come true. But here is the hard truth - the dream of playing pro baseball is unrealistic for all but the truly exceptional player. The dream of playing high level D1 college baseball is equally unrealistic. The dream of playing college baseball at a good D1 or a great D2 is pretty unrealistic too for most HS players. The most realistic goal for most very good HS players is D3. Partly because there are more teams in D3 than any other classification and partly because the level of play is more attainable for more players. Based on the current value of a college degree you should be making a choice based on education anyway. But here is the kicker - you don’t need to be on the most expensive travel teams to get to D3 baseball. You don’t need to travel to Atlanta & Jupiter. You don’t need to go to expensive PG showcases to get a PG national ranking, you don’t need a big EV, you don’t need a lot of what people do. You can play on an affordable travel team that plays local tournaments, you can get training from affordable instructors, and you can go to affordable showcases that feature D3 coaches. If all that is out of reach you might be able to find a HS coach that develops his players and move into that attendance area. There are ways to avoid getting caught up in the financial tidal wave. But hardly anybody does it. Instead they chase an unrealistic goal and keep throwing money at it thinking it will increase their odds - and it won’t. Talent can’t be bought. Playing time can be bought up to a point. Travel ball is pay for play. In some high schools money can have influence on playing time too. But not in college. In college the best player plays. Coaches don’t always get it right with who they recruit but it’s rare that they don’t get their best options on the field. Once you get to college baseball pay for play is over.  If you spent money that you can’t afford trying to reach an unrealistic goal that wasn’t attainable in the first place it’s a hard day when you come to that realization. Unfortunately the travel ball industry is fueled by thousands of people that do just that. I don’t like it that there is a multi-billion dollar industry based on monetizing a boy’s dream. But you have to be smart enough not to fall prey to it. There are other ways. I had a lot of people help me along the way and none of them ever asked for money. When I coached travel ball we only asked parents for enough money to cover expenses and coaches paid their share too if they had a kid on the team. I don’t charge the HS & college pitchers that I train. I view it as my form of community service and I’m not that unique in that regard. There are plenty of others like me that love baseball and will help a kid just because they can. Baseball is the greatest game in the world - but it’s a hard game that includes a lot of failure.  You can choose to be cynical about your failures or you can learn from them. That’s just as true in baseball as it is in life in general. 

@adbono posted:

The truth is that the travel ball industry has to be viewed as an activity and not an investment. Any money spent has to be discretionary. It isn’t an investment in any sense of the word as you should expect no ROI. The problem is that it isn’t sold that way by travel ball clubs. It’s sold as we can get your kid a scholarship if you pay our fee to play for us - and btw private lessons are on your own dime too. But at this point that is no secret. As a parent (consumer) you should do your diligence and learn that. But year after year parents fall for the sales pitch as they want to help their kids dreams come true. But here is the hard truth - the dream of playing pro baseball is unrealistic for all but the truly exceptional player. The dream of playing high level D1 college baseball is equally unrealistic. The dream of playing college baseball at a good D1 or a great D2 is pretty unrealistic too for most HS players. The most realistic goal for most very good HS players is D3. Partly because there are more teams in D3 than any other classification and partly because the level of play is more attainable for more players. Based on the current value of a college degree you should be making a choice based on education anyway. But here is the kicker - you don’t need to be on the most expensive travel teams to get to D3 baseball. You don’t need to travel to Atlanta & Jupiter. You don’t need to go to expensive PG showcases to get a PG national ranking, you don’t need a big EV, you don’t need a lot of what people do. You can play on an affordable travel team that plays local tournaments, you can get training from affordable instructors, and you can go to affordable showcases that feature D3 coaches. If all that is out of reach you might be able to find a HS coach that develops his players and move into that attendance area. There are ways to avoid getting caught up in the financial tidal wave. But hardly anybody does it. Instead they chase an unrealistic goal and keep throwing money at it thinking it will increase their odds - and it won’t. Talent can’t be bought. Playing time can be bought up to a point. Travel ball is pay for play. In some high schools money can have influence on playing time too. But not in college. In college the best player plays. Coaches don’t always get it right with who they recruit but it’s rare that they don’t get their best options on the field. Once you get to college baseball pay for play is over.  If you spent money that you can’t afford trying to reach an unrealistic goal that wasn’t attainable in the first place it’s a hard day when you come to that realization. Unfortunately the travel ball industry is fueled by thousands of people that do just that. I don’t like it that there is a multi-billion dollar industry based on monetizing a boy’s dream. But you have to be smart enough not to fall prey to it. There are other ways. I had a lot of people help me along the way and none of them ever asked for money. When I coached travel ball we only asked parents for enough money to cover expenses and coaches paid their share too if they had a kid on the team. I don’t charge the HS & college pitchers that I train. I view it as my form of community service and I’m not that unique in that regard. There are plenty of others like me that love baseball and will help a kid just because they can. Baseball is the greatest game in the world - but it’s a hard game that includes a lot of failure.  You can choose to be cynical about your failures or you can learn from them. That’s just as true in baseball as it is in life in general. 

It's not just baseball...

When my son was @12, my niece accepted a full ride to play volleyball at Texas A&M. I called my brother-in-law to tell him congratulations  on his daughter's scholarship and also mentioned the money he saved. 

He said "I doubt I broke even."

@Go44dad posted:

It's not just baseball...

When my son was @12, my niece accepted a full ride to play volleyball at Texas A&M. I called my brother-in-law to tell him congratulations  on his daughter's scholarship and also mentioned the money he saved. 

He said "I doubt I broke even."

There is tremendous value in the experience regardless of the sport - if you can comfortably afford it. 

@adbono this is one of the best posts I've ever read about youth sports...and something that has infuriated me (and I have a D1 basketball player at Big 10 school and a son committed to the SEC for baseball) for a lot of reasons. Focusing on fun and development, we kept all three of our kids on their local teams for as long as we possibly could which meant that they were somewhat "unknown" when they finally hit the circuit. You could argue that they were "underrated" for quite a long time. Eventually their play spoke for itself. If they had been on the circuit longer, perhaps they would have had more offers and higher rankings earlier but in the end, you only need one offer...the right one. The only caveat, to be fully transparent, is that both of the kids with P5 careers meet the "eye" test so I do understand that it was easier for us to make that decision. 

As for the original debate, stay in college or leave and go into the workforce. I would add one small thought and that is that the current economy might make it difficult for undergrads to come out and find a job so that is likely another factor in more kids staying in school. 

Finally, @adbono thank you for the work you've done to continue to develop the game. 

Adbono offers sage advice. Hard to follow up on his post, he covered just about everything.

I always have told parents to be careful how they spend their money before college as it is expensive, it becomes even more so when they move to their own place.  In my opinion, the goal should be securing a good opportunity in an affordable program, supported by academic money so that your son ( or daughter) walks away with little or no debt.  It's important to do just as well in school as on the field.  For most players, it is hard to tell what a freshman will be like going into his junior or senior year. Let nature take its course and stop worrying about what the other guy is doing.  And make sure that your son is involved in the search process. 

Follow the excellent advice given by Al, everything usually works out in the end the way it was intended. 

FWIW, Josh Rudd had great interviews from coaches this season about recruiting tips. For those new to this site you can do a search here or follow him on YouTube, quarantine coaches.

 

 

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