Commitment overload and NLI

2019Dad posted:

We can all agree that the SEC has been the strongest conference recently. In fact, based on the 21st century rate of CWS titles, in another three or four hundred years it should catch the PAC 12 in overall number of CWS titles:

PAC 12: 28 CWS titles overall, 5 so far this century

SEC: 11 CWS titles overall, 6 so far this century

 

Well played 2019Dad. That’s funny!

In fairness though, it was the Big 12 that got snubbed rather than the PAC 12.

There’s obviously some good spirited conference bias at play in this thread though...which is fun. However, The argument might have been better if it was made for warm weather schools vs cold. 

As far as “quality”...Texas is arguably the best (or one of the best) collegiate baseball programs of all time. 6 titles, 6 runner up finishes. (Disclaimer, I grew up rooting against Texas...so no homer-ism here).

This is from their wiki page. 

Texas holds the records for most appearances in the College World Series (36), most individual CWS games won (85), most overall NCAA Tournament games won (240), and most NCAA Tournament appearances (59); the second-place programs in these categories have 25 CWS appearances (Miami), wins in 74 CWS games (Southern California), 192 overall NCAA Tournament wins (Florida State and Miami), and 56 NCAA Tournament appearances (Florida State), as of June 11, 2018.

 

PlayWithEffort posted:
2019Dad posted:

We can all agree that the SEC has been the strongest conference recently. In fact, based on the 21st century rate of CWS titles, in another three or four hundred years it should catch the PAC 12 in overall number of CWS titles:

PAC 12: 28 CWS titles overall, 5 so far this century

SEC: 11 CWS titles overall, 6 so far this century

 

Well played 2019Dad. That’s funny!

In fairness though, it was the Big 12 that got snubbed rather than the PAC 12.

There’s obviously some good spirited conference bias at play in this thread though...which is fun. However, The argument might have been better if it was made for warm weather schools vs cold. 

As far as “quality”...Texas is arguably the best (or one of the best) collegiate baseball programs of all time. 6 titles, 6 runner up finishes. (Disclaimer, I grew up rooting against Texas...so no homer-ism here).

This is from their wiki page. 

Texas holds the records for most appearances in the College World Series (36), most individual CWS games won (85), most overall NCAA Tournament games won (240), and most NCAA Tournament appearances (59); the second-place programs in these categories have 25 CWS appearances (Miami), wins in 74 CWS games (Southern California), 192 overall NCAA Tournament wins (Florida State and Miami), and 56 NCAA Tournament appearances (Florida State), as of June 11, 2018.

 

You would have to look long & hard to find anyone that detests the University of Texas more than I do.  But PlayWithEffort’s post is spot on. Their baseball program can’t be left out of this conversation. 

old_school posted:

...[coaches] will have to work harder, be accountable ...

If you aren't aware that DI coaches as a group already work extremely hard and feel very accountable for their actions to a variety of disparate constituencies (not the least of which would be the players they recruit), you don't know many DI coaches very well.

Prepster posted:
old_school posted:

...[coaches] will have to work harder, be accountable ...

If you aren't aware that DI coaches as a group already work extremely hard and feel very accountable for their actions to a variety of disparate constituencies (not the least of which would be the players they recruit), you don't know many DI coaches very well.

I never said they didn't work hard, I believe there could be a better standard.

Take a pole of highly successful people and see how many feel they don't work hard in whatever occupation. I seem to recall countless posts on this website and many others that say hard work is the minimum standard nothing special. Of course that is for players but I wouldn't see why it shouldn't apply to coaches as well. 

I have a client that is in the process of laying of 35% of its work force across the country...that will make you feel very accountable. 

bacdorslider posted:

I don't know that half the kids transfer? .. that's a huge number.   The fact is every year since I have been coming here ( 2009)  everyone has to go through the reality phase.  Mostly that Johnny is not as good as either the coach , the parent , the player thought he was and their goals were were placed to high. Maybe due to getting so much marketing thrown at them, maybe because they have no idea what they are talking about. So here's the travel ball parent test.  Pick either A or B.

1.) WWBA  and there are 40 RC's all huddled together and talking, texting, charting , are they "A" crazy  interested in "my boy"  or answer "B" comparing their fantasy football teams ?

2.) Jupiter WS  there are  50 scouts  behind the screen packed in like sardines, are "A" fighting for the front row to see how great my sons swing is  or "B" trying to stay in the shade.

3.) PBR event, pick one  they are all the same..... 100's of  RC's ...... every college team represented  10 are standing down the 3rd base line.... are they "A" watching the footwork on my stud infielder and his cannon arm,  or "B" trying to check out the sister or mom of a player and not get caught looking ?

4.)  Three weeks ago I was talking to a RC and I quote " I drove to Lake point to see a kid and not only was he terrible the team he was on and the team they were playing was terrible. " 

Here's how it works..... the big dog gotta eat first.... so the SEC then ACC and the PAC12  are going to cherry pick the best 10-12 players they can from where ever they darn well please. They have the money and they get who they want.  

Next are the Big 10 schools, some eastern schools , great schools they take the best from their area.   

Then the SEC and ACC come in again later in the recruiting cycle and take players for what they call the second tier recruits.

Next are the mid-majors, not always fully funded, but take the best in-state kids that are left and the Jucos that turned out alright.  maybe a few from neighboring states. 

If you are not getting any interest from P5 schools by your soph summer and / or interest from national travel teams, or Area Code, East Coast Pro then  you should probably start at the mid-major and work down.  Of course there is always an exception..... maybe you are it.....  Don't bother going to P5 camps, paying a ton of money.... etc....   Another true story..... player was on a recruiting visit to a nice baseball school in Kentucky and not UK.   as he and his family were being lead around they opened a door that went out onto the field... and as luck would have it, there was a camp going on.... and that's when I saw about a 50 players and parents have the uh hu  moment..... 

IF these power 5 schools want you they are not going to invite you to a camp, they are going to call you, they are going to call you daily, they are going to get you to campus "on a academic visit" and make sure they are in the office when you come by. They are going to write your offer on a dry erase board and point to it.   

I mean come on, do you know how many emails these guys get on a daily ?   If you want to answer emails go ahead, if you want to post videos go ahead.... won't do much good really.... 

Take your player to a local college and watch the games, be honest can I play with these guys, am I built like this, as fast as quick, arm as good..... and if you can get one coach or anyone to believe that your son has talent maybe he can go to bat for you.... these coaches are not going to give you 60k in money move you across the country to play D3 ball if they do not have a very good idea of who you are.    Sending tons of emails etc... it does not work that way..... they recruit you , you don't convince them... 

 

 

This is the most honest, smartest, and at times, most humorous summary of a high school player's recruiting experience I have ever read! It very much crystalizes the process our son experienced. He had his sights on top D-1 power 5 schools. We received snippets of interest here and there but no offers. He has ended up at a mid-major school which ended up being a perfect fit for him. Looking back, I wonder if he had been "committed" to a top school, would he have showed up and never played? I agree that the only way you can be sure your son will play is if he is a scholarship player (and lives up to potential of course).

adbono posted:
PlayWithEffort posted:
2019Dad posted:

We can all agree that the SEC has been the strongest conference recently. In fact, based on the 21st century rate of CWS titles, in another three or four hundred years it should catch the PAC 12 in overall number of CWS titles:

PAC 12: 28 CWS titles overall, 5 so far this century

SEC: 11 CWS titles overall, 6 so far this century

 

Well played 2019Dad. That’s funny!

In fairness though, it was the Big 12 that got snubbed rather than the PAC 12.

There’s obviously some good spirited conference bias at play in this thread though...which is fun. However, The argument might have been better if it was made for warm weather schools vs cold. 

As far as “quality”...Texas is arguably the best (or one of the best) collegiate baseball programs of all time. 6 titles, 6 runner up finishes. (Disclaimer, I grew up rooting against Texas...so no homer-ism here).

This is from their wiki page. 

Texas holds the records for most appearances in the College World Series (36), most individual CWS games won (85), most overall NCAA Tournament games won (240), and most NCAA Tournament appearances (59); the second-place programs in these categories have 25 CWS appearances (Miami), wins in 74 CWS games (Southern California), 192 overall NCAA Tournament wins (Florida State and Miami), and 56 NCAA Tournament appearances (Florida State), as of June 11, 2018.

 

You would have to look long & hard to find anyone that detests the University of Texas more than I do.  But PlayWithEffort’s post is spot on. Their baseball program can’t be left out of this conversation. 

Hey guys I said the Pac-12 and Big -12 had a few good teams and of course they do,,,, but top to bottom the SEC is stronger, especially if you don't count Alabama baseball.... I heard they are going to the Gulf South conference.

Hmmm...I'm inclined to agree with bacdorslider.  and do not think that he should have backed from his original pecking order, especially with the surge in the SEC over the past two decades.

But our "collective awareness" of college baseball tends to be shaped by what we see in football.  It is not the same.  The changes instituted back in 2009 that made the limits of 35 roster spots, with 11.7 scholaships for 27 spots, and no one less than .25 leveled the playing field among the 300 D1 programs to large degree.

Many top players are selecting to play at baseball outside P5 for better exposure, increased playing time, lower cost of attendance, better academic fit, certain coaching philosophy, etc.  Although there will still be plenty of over-commits at many P5 schools, many of those "over-commit" players will end up scrambling to find a D2 or Juco spot.

Whether the NCAA intended to improve the situation for the players or not, the effect is that it has.  Graduation rates were abysmal among P5 powerhouse baseball programs.  Arizona, the biggest offender, had a practice of bringing in dozens of freshman on .1 scholarships, or books only scholarships.  Then (Arizona and most other power programs) effectively held fall tryouts for those that would make the "travel roster". Their (Arizona) graduation rates were in single digit percentages - like 3 to 9.

The SEC has the highest coaches' salaries, the biggest stadiums, and the largest attendance. These are facts, not debatable opinion.  So it is the is the big dog - cynically because it is the most willing to exploit it's young baseball players to make a buck.  Realistically, it is because it has the biggest investment. , Then comes the ACC and PAC.  The BIG 12 definitely before the BIG10, but only because Texas is so top heavy.  Pull out Texas and it is the BIG10 when it comes to baseball. 

Go44dad posted:

First round draft picks since 1965 wins it?  Please...

Draft picks last year by conference

SEC 90

B12 48

ACC 44

P12 40

B10 29

The results are in. There will be no recount. 

Last year was an aberration. I like the 2017 draft picks by conference:

ACC: 75 (average of 5.4 per team)

SEC: 75 (5.4 per team)

P12: 46 (4.2 per team)

B12: 43 (4.8 per team)

B1G: 35 (2.7 per team)

Ivy: 13 (1.6 per team)

Those are the six conferences generally known as the "Power 6," right?

Go44dad posted:

First round draft picks since 1965 wins it?  Please...

Draft picks last year by conference

SEC 90

B12 48

ACC 44

P12 40

B10 29

The results are in. There will be no recount. 

OK Go44dad, they all have great players, but I just presented one piece of evidence in support of bacdorslider's assertion (that I 100% agree with but Big12 fans and Pac fans seem to take issue with).  Of note, my son was recruited by schools in every P5 and 4 of the 8 the Ivy's, has the measurable and academics that he could have gone anywhere he wanted.  Ultimately he signed with a great D1 baseball program in a smaller conference for multiple reasons, staff, proximity to home, academic match, coaching philosophy, success with pitchers in the draft, etc.

I was trying to give other conferences (outside the SEC) the benefit of the doubt by going back to the beginning of the draft, but I like recent history even better.  If I combine your 2018 numbers with 2019dad's from 2017, the clear pecking order is SEC first, then the ACC followed by the PAC, Big12 and Big10.  It is kind of what we all know if you follow the sport beyond ESPN coverage.

There is no doubt that Texas is an elite and possibly best the program historically, as are USC and Stanford in the PAC.  Without those teams, those conferences are not even close to the SEC currently or historically.  But when it comes to the SEC, you could take out LSU and Florida, and you would still be left with Auburn, Vandy, SC, Ole Miss, Miss St., A&M, UGA, Kentucky, etc.  The SEC is different.  I say this as someone who grew up in  BIG10 country and lived in midway between Columbus and Ann Arbor for my first 40 years. Spending the last 8 in the southeast and following the college baseball for decades, my opinion is that  most Big10 and Big 12 team, outside of a few schools, would struggle in D2 conferences in the SE, which are really just an extension of D1.

2019Dad posted:
 

Last year was an aberration. I like the 2017 draft picks by conference:

ACC: 75 (average of 5.4 per team)

SEC: 75 (5.4 per team)

P12: 46 (4.2 per team)

B12: 43 (4.8 per team)

B1G: 35 (2.7 per team)

Ivy: 13 (1.6 per team)

Those are the six conferences generally known as the "Power 6," right?

3 to 6 draft picks per team, of those what 10% or so make a career of the MLB...chase the dream if you can but you better have fall back plan. I would be curious how many of the 90% or so that don't make it actually have one. Being an assistant coach in single A is even less appealing then playing it. 

old_school posted:
2019Dad posted:
 

Last year was an aberration. I like the 2017 draft picks by conference:

ACC: 75 (average of 5.4 per team)

SEC: 75 (5.4 per team)

P12: 46 (4.2 per team)

B12: 43 (4.8 per team)

B1G: 35 (2.7 per team)

Ivy: 13 (1.6 per team)

Those are the six conferences generally known as the "Power 6," right?

3 to 6 draft picks per team, of those what 10% or so make a career of the MLB...chase the dream if you can but you better have fall back plan. I would be curious how many of the 90% or so that don't make it actually have one. Being an assistant coach in single A is even less appealing then playing it. 

I completely agree with you about coaching in single A. But I know a couple of guys who have done it and loved it. They were career minor leaguers who made it to AAA. They retired when they couldn’t find a MLB organization to sign them for AAA. The strategy all along at that point was to get into coaching.

They both made enough money playing 8-10 years in the minors to not starve. Older AAAA players often make 100k in the minors for a few years. Plus weeks in the majors is a 40K paycheck. One of them spent two years in Japan and made 1M.

i would think the bus rides and Econo Lodges would suck. But these guys have a passion for the game. They see themselves in MLB dugouts some day. 

One kid’s dad told me when the kid was playing he could fall asleep on the floor of the back of the bus with a blanket. I went to a few of his AA games. He was having the most fun of everyone in pregame.

To each their own I guess, I would like to see my son sharpen his skills to be the owner of the organization! I am getting old and maybe I just am not enough of a dreamer but the lifestyle just isn't that impressive to me.

Almost of all of these kids would be better served by putting the same work ethic they used on the ballfield into a career with big upside or most any good entrepreneurial endeavor.

2019Dad posted

Last year was an aberration. I like the 2017 draft picks by conference:

ACC: 75 (average of 5.4 per team)

SEC: 75 (5.4 per team)

P12: 46 (4.2 per team)

B12: 43 (4.8 per team)

B1G: 35 (2.7 per team)

Ivy: 13 (1.6 per team)

Those are the six conferences generally known as the "Power 6," right?

Haha, easy now......My son was one of those 13 Ivy selections.  There were four kids drafted from his team that year.  Power 6 - that's pretty funny.

9and7dad posted:
2019Dad posted

Last year was an aberration. I like the 2017 draft picks by conference:

ACC: 75 (average of 5.4 per team)

SEC: 75 (5.4 per team)

P12: 46 (4.2 per team)

B12: 43 (4.8 per team)

B1G: 35 (2.7 per team)

Ivy: 13 (1.6 per team)

Those are the six conferences generally known as the "Power 6," right?

Haha, easy now......My son was one of those 13 Ivy selections.  There were four kids drafted from his team that year.  Power 6 - that's pretty funny.

Did anyone analyze only position players that were drafted? I wonder how much those numbers changed. 

Add Reply

Likes (0)
×
×
×
×