Very true statements. That is part of the whole mental makeup aspect of a prospect. Knowing how to handle adversity is far more important than how you handle success. As a hitter you will fail most of the time. As a pitcher you deal with failure pitch to pitch. I know of one kid drafted last year who wasn't ready and folded mentally in Rookie ball last year. He said that he did not know how to handle failure at all. His team had always been the best one around both hs and travel.
I have stated to my son (who is a nominal prospect at best) that if it comes down to five guys, the next place they look is upbringing, genetics, mental make up, maturity, etc. A friend of mine once told him that there were a hundred guys better than him in the minors, they just didn't have it mentally and did not have the make up he had. If one choses to grow up on the road, he better have those kind of tools as well.
That is why only 50 of the first 157 players taken in the first 5 rounds were hs players. Only 85 were taken out of the first 307! So being a top 100 player is not a draft guarantee.
quote:
Originally posted by Chill:
These are comments from a FIRST ROUND pick:
He says a few years of seasoning in college, playing under coach Smoke Laval, made a world of difference in his baseball career. In high school, Hill was drafted in the seventh round by the Angels, but went to LSU.
Smart move? Last summer, the Blue Jays tabbed him in the first round and paid a signing bonus of almost $1.7 million.
“That was probably the best decision I’ve made, going to college and playing three years,” he said. “I learned so much about myself, mentally and physically. But, for the most part, mentally. Everyone’s going to handle themselves when they’re up. That’s not too hard. When you’re down, that’s when you’ve got to know how to do it and get out of that slump.”
For every 7th rounder like Aaron Hill who turns into a #1 pick there are an equal or greater number of players that go from the 7th round to the 17th round or like Kenny Henderson(U. of Miami) who went from The 5th pick in the 1st round offered $650,000 in 1991 the 3rd highest bonus of any pick in the draft to I believe a 9th rounder who signed for $50,000 who never sniffed the Majors.
I believe I posted the following before but in case you missed it's one of many examples of Players who go to College expecting to play ball & come out 3 years later better both in terms of their skills & standing in the draft only to find their career will never be the same.
Gloger Leaves USF Squad, Will Return To Stanford
Published in the Tampa Tribune Aug 24, 2002
TAMPA - Three days after undergoing surgery on his pitching shoulder, senior left-hander Ryan Gloger quit South Florida's baseball team to return to Stanford to obtain his sociology degree. ``Baseball-wise, it's just very sad really,'' USF coach Eddie Cardieri said. Gloger played two seasons at Stanford before transferring to USF last year, going 6-4 with a 5.37 ERA. ``I always wanted to go back to Stanford to earn my degree,'' said Gloger, who expected his rehabilitation to take several months. ``This is just something that really makes sense to do now.'' After Jesuit, Gloger was an eighth-round draft pick by the Devil Rays. He was a 46th- round pick by Arizona in June.
Published in Baseball America May 31, 2002
By Jim Callis
I was wondering about the possible draft position of 1999 highly rated prospect Ryan Gloger, who supposedly scared scouts away back then by committing to Stanford. Despite an off year at South Florida, where do you see him going?
John Fernandez
Tampa
If he hadn't been headed to Stanford, Gloger might have been a first-rounder in 1999. Coming out of Jesuit High in Tampa—the same school that produced Brad Radke and first-round picks Geoff Goetz, Sam Marsonek and Nick Stocks—Gloger was considered in the same class as fellow Florida high school pitchers Brett Myers and Bobby Bradley.
The hometown Devil Rays took a flier on Gloger in the eighth round but were unable to sway him from the Cardinals, Ever since, Gloger has been a puzzle. He rarely pitched in two years at Stanford but pitched well after each of those seasons in the Cape Cod League. He only threw 83-86 mph last summer on the Cape, then transferred to South Florida and looked pretty good in the fall, reaching 89-91 mph. He looked totally different this spring, with poor mechanics, a mid-80s fastball and no secondary pitches.
Heading into the NCAA regionals, Gloger carried a 5-4, 5.91 record in 14 starts, with a horrid 32-37 strikeout-walk ratio in 56 innings. If he goes in the first 10 rounds, it will be based on the glimpses he has shown in the past rather than what he has done this year.
BigHit
The mental side of a player comes into play, certainly. But your numbers re: hs players in the first 5 rounds may be because:
Generally, hs pitchers are considered a big risk, aren't they? Many teams are looking more and more at college players because they are more developed physically and mentally, their college stats may be easier to translate into future production and they have played better competition and had better instruction while getting national exposure.
Can you determine what a player's ceiling is or the chance of becoming an impact player from watching hs competition?
Where do scouts make the most mistakes do you think? Do you think successful college players have a better chance across the board to be successful pro players than successful hs players?
The mental side of a player comes into play, certainly. But your numbers re: hs players in the first 5 rounds may be because:
Generally, hs pitchers are considered a big risk, aren't they? Many teams are looking more and more at college players because they are more developed physically and mentally, their college stats may be easier to translate into future production and they have played better competition and had better instruction while getting national exposure.
Can you determine what a player's ceiling is or the chance of becoming an impact player from watching hs competition?
Where do scouts make the most mistakes do you think? Do you think successful college players have a better chance across the board to be successful pro players than successful hs players?
Depending on someone's definition of "success", the college player is less of a risk because he is older (much more mental and physical track record to go on). The high school player is more risky but also likely to produce the biggest rewards (All Star caliber player).
All college players were at one time high school players. The trick is picking the right ones out of high school.
If anyone has the time to look through last year's American and National League All Star rosters, it could help clear up the picture. How many MLB All Stars signed out of high school? How many out of 4 year colleges? I'm guessing there might be one or more that signed out of a JC.
Also it would be interesting to check out the rosters of the Marlins and Yankees World Series. Off the top of my head I'm sure Jeter, Soriano, Beckett, Willis, and many others did not play college baseball.
There's no right or wrong answer to signing out of high school or going to school. It's all about each individual case. The right answer comes much later, often too late.
All college players were at one time high school players. The trick is picking the right ones out of high school.
If anyone has the time to look through last year's American and National League All Star rosters, it could help clear up the picture. How many MLB All Stars signed out of high school? How many out of 4 year colleges? I'm guessing there might be one or more that signed out of a JC.
Also it would be interesting to check out the rosters of the Marlins and Yankees World Series. Off the top of my head I'm sure Jeter, Soriano, Beckett, Willis, and many others did not play college baseball.
There's no right or wrong answer to signing out of high school or going to school. It's all about each individual case. The right answer comes much later, often too late.
Chill,
I am really just making observations about numbers and what they tell you. Keep in mind that some pro teams are far more interested in hs players. The Braves being a prime example. They have had a lot of success. It varies from team to team. My observation was based on overall numbers. Based on that I would not discout the mental makeup aspect. JMO
Just remember, bigger risk, bigger reward.
That is the 64k question. Is it not? Isn't that where the scouts make their money? Projecting is their job. Some teams do it better than others and the numbers bear that out. I don't think scouts watch hs competition as much as they project players. I could not scout kids by watching the competition.
Again isn't that the question that fuels the debate. The maturity vs. deveopment debate. I don't think there is a right or wrong asmuch as there is just different philosophies. There is a trend towards college players, but the premium hs players will always be a coup.
I am really just making observations about numbers and what they tell you. Keep in mind that some pro teams are far more interested in hs players. The Braves being a prime example. They have had a lot of success. It varies from team to team. My observation was based on overall numbers. Based on that I would not discout the mental makeup aspect. JMO
Just remember, bigger risk, bigger reward.
quote:
Can you determine what a player's ceiling is or the chance of becoming an impact player from watching hs competition?
That is the 64k question. Is it not? Isn't that where the scouts make their money? Projecting is their job. Some teams do it better than others and the numbers bear that out. I don't think scouts watch hs competition as much as they project players. I could not scout kids by watching the competition.
quote:
Do you think successful college players have a better chance across the board to be successful pro players than successful hs players?
Again isn't that the question that fuels the debate. The maturity vs. deveopment debate. I don't think there is a right or wrong asmuch as there is just different philosophies. There is a trend towards college players, but the premium hs players will always be a coup.
PS. Good discussion. Thanks. Your point of view and that of others really helps.
Chill,
Good points,thanks for the info.
We have been debating both sides of this issue forever and this will continue to be debated forever.
It is a personal choice. No one should be made to feel that one decision is better than the other, that is up to the family to decide.
We HS parents all need to take the rose colored glasses off and take a closer look. Too many parents think their sons are the next Josh Beckett, Derek Jeter, Roger Clemens, etc. And no one knows a THING until draft day, don't let anyone make you think any differently.
After all this discussion, I am really looking forward to the percentage of college vs HS for the top 10 rounds. Last year 206 college players were drafted in the top 10, 101 from HS, percentages are 67% college, 33% HS. In the first round out of 20 college players 12 were never drafted out of HS. There were 19 from college in the second, 10 never drafted out of HS. In round 1, Kyle Sleeth was 18 out of HS, Tim Stauffer was 36 out of HS, Aaron Hill was 7 out of HS, Chad Cordero was 26 out of HS, to name a few. The HS players drafted in the first,sandwich, second, third round were OUTSTANDING players. Jumping to the 10th, 21 college players, 13 never drafted in HS. All in all, only 2 players did not do better than HS draft pick in the top ten rounds.
The numbers don't lie, do they?
Good points,thanks for the info.
We have been debating both sides of this issue forever and this will continue to be debated forever.
It is a personal choice. No one should be made to feel that one decision is better than the other, that is up to the family to decide.
We HS parents all need to take the rose colored glasses off and take a closer look. Too many parents think their sons are the next Josh Beckett, Derek Jeter, Roger Clemens, etc. And no one knows a THING until draft day, don't let anyone make you think any differently.
After all this discussion, I am really looking forward to the percentage of college vs HS for the top 10 rounds. Last year 206 college players were drafted in the top 10, 101 from HS, percentages are 67% college, 33% HS. In the first round out of 20 college players 12 were never drafted out of HS. There were 19 from college in the second, 10 never drafted out of HS. In round 1, Kyle Sleeth was 18 out of HS, Tim Stauffer was 36 out of HS, Aaron Hill was 7 out of HS, Chad Cordero was 26 out of HS, to name a few. The HS players drafted in the first,sandwich, second, third round were OUTSTANDING players. Jumping to the 10th, 21 college players, 13 never drafted in HS. All in all, only 2 players did not do better than HS draft pick in the top ten rounds.
The numbers don't lie, do they?
This is an article I had in my files from TeamOne in 2000 written by David Rawnsley. It geives an interesting perspective on the college vs pro debate.Take note of what he says in the final paragraph:
Sign Or Go To School
By: David Rawnsley
Date: 05/11/2000
Draft Central Draft Day Draft Rules/Overview
Team Reports Prospect Bios News and Analysis
Virtually every high school player who is drafted high but decides to attend college does so thinking he will improve his draft stock (and thus his signing bonus) during his three years at school. So the question is, does this usually happen, or are these high school prospects risking the present for the promises of the future?
Three years ago, 20 high school prospects who were picked in the top 8 rounds but decided not to sign. While a couple went the draft and follow route and attended junior colleges, the rest are eligible for the draft for the first time since 1997. Here is a quick scorecard, in the order they were selected, on how each decision turned out. - or + indicates whether the decision to go to school improved the players draft standing and bonus potential.
OF Tyrell Godwin (1st round/NYY): Should be picked in about the same spot, but won't see the $1.9M he turned down because he no longer has the football leverage. -
C Dane Sardinha (2nd round/Royals): Solid first round pick in 2000. +
CF Patrick Boyd (2nd round/Mariners): Lack of performance has mystified scouts this year. Difficult to predict where he will go, but it won't be in the first round like most thought at the beginning of the year. -
2B Chase Utley (2nd round/Dodgers): May go in the middle of the first round, but should improve his financial position even if he slides to the comp/early 2nd round. +
LHP Steve Colyer (2nd round/Dodgers): Attended JC for a year in hopes of becoming a first round pick, but didn't throw well and signed for less than he turned down the previous year. -
LHP Greg Withelder (3rd round/Twins): Never developed at Virginia and eventually dropped out of school, later surfacing at Wilmington (DE) College. -
LHP Scott Barrett (3rd round/Astros): Attended Texas for a semester before leaving for San Jacinto JC to reestablish his draft eligibility. The Astros picked him again in 1998, only this time in 5th round. -
LHP Matt Riley (3rd round/Orioles): Went the draft and follow route, signing with the Orioles the following May and making a meteoritic rise to the big leagues. +
RHP Kevin McGerry (4th round/Giants): He will easily improve his draft status in 2000, probably up to the 2nd round. +
3B Xavier Nady (4th round/Cardinals): No brainer as the best decision of the 1997 draft, as Nady could go among the first 10 picks this year. Net profit: $2.5M - $3.5M (est.) +
CF Ronte Langs (4th round/Expos): Langs first attended JC and is now at Oklahoma State. He won't see the 4th round again, though. -
SS Chase Voshell (4th round/Diamondbacks): Should go just about the place in this draft as he did in 1997. Factoring in draft inflation and three years education at Wake Forest, his decision was a sound one. +
RHP Derek Stanford (5th round/Astros): Attended JC and signed with the Astros the following May. +
SS Tim Hummell (5th round/Padres): Solid pick this year anywhere from the end of the first round to the middle of the second. +
RHP Matt Riethmaier (5th round/Diamondbacks): Haven't heard his name mentioned as a prospect this year. -
RHP Jason Anderson (6th round/Royals): Still on the prospect map in about the same position he was before, maybe a little lower. -
C Kris Wilken (6th round/Red Sox): Now a third baseman and likely to return to Houston for his senior season. -
SS Brett Groves (6th round/Florida State): Groves has struggled to hit at times in college, but is still solid defensively. -
OF Miles Durham (7th round/Dodgers): Bothered by hamstring problems all spring while playing at Texas Tech. Will likely return for his senior season.-
LHP Clifton Lee (8th round/Marlins): Attended junior college, where he went completely undrafted due to arm problems, but has regained his status and then some. Could be a 2nd/3rd round pick. +
The tally through eight rounds is 11 on the plus side, 9 on the minus side. There were 11 more high school drafts in the 9th and 10th round who didn't sign. For the sake of brevity, I won't list them individually, but 7 of the 11 came out on the plus side, including potential high picks RHP Justin Wayne (Stanford) LHP Ryan Snare (North Carolina) and RHP Michael Schultz (Loyola Marymount).
That makes it 18 on the plus side, 13 on the minus side. Hardly a scientific study, but enough to indicate that those high school players who choose to bypass a chance to sign should temper their expectations about how they will fare when their turn comes around again in the draft.
Sign Or Go To School
By: David Rawnsley
Date: 05/11/2000
Draft Central Draft Day Draft Rules/Overview
Team Reports Prospect Bios News and Analysis
Virtually every high school player who is drafted high but decides to attend college does so thinking he will improve his draft stock (and thus his signing bonus) during his three years at school. So the question is, does this usually happen, or are these high school prospects risking the present for the promises of the future?
Three years ago, 20 high school prospects who were picked in the top 8 rounds but decided not to sign. While a couple went the draft and follow route and attended junior colleges, the rest are eligible for the draft for the first time since 1997. Here is a quick scorecard, in the order they were selected, on how each decision turned out. - or + indicates whether the decision to go to school improved the players draft standing and bonus potential.
OF Tyrell Godwin (1st round/NYY): Should be picked in about the same spot, but won't see the $1.9M he turned down because he no longer has the football leverage. -
C Dane Sardinha (2nd round/Royals): Solid first round pick in 2000. +
CF Patrick Boyd (2nd round/Mariners): Lack of performance has mystified scouts this year. Difficult to predict where he will go, but it won't be in the first round like most thought at the beginning of the year. -
2B Chase Utley (2nd round/Dodgers): May go in the middle of the first round, but should improve his financial position even if he slides to the comp/early 2nd round. +
LHP Steve Colyer (2nd round/Dodgers): Attended JC for a year in hopes of becoming a first round pick, but didn't throw well and signed for less than he turned down the previous year. -
LHP Greg Withelder (3rd round/Twins): Never developed at Virginia and eventually dropped out of school, later surfacing at Wilmington (DE) College. -
LHP Scott Barrett (3rd round/Astros): Attended Texas for a semester before leaving for San Jacinto JC to reestablish his draft eligibility. The Astros picked him again in 1998, only this time in 5th round. -
LHP Matt Riley (3rd round/Orioles): Went the draft and follow route, signing with the Orioles the following May and making a meteoritic rise to the big leagues. +
RHP Kevin McGerry (4th round/Giants): He will easily improve his draft status in 2000, probably up to the 2nd round. +
3B Xavier Nady (4th round/Cardinals): No brainer as the best decision of the 1997 draft, as Nady could go among the first 10 picks this year. Net profit: $2.5M - $3.5M (est.) +
CF Ronte Langs (4th round/Expos): Langs first attended JC and is now at Oklahoma State. He won't see the 4th round again, though. -
SS Chase Voshell (4th round/Diamondbacks): Should go just about the place in this draft as he did in 1997. Factoring in draft inflation and three years education at Wake Forest, his decision was a sound one. +
RHP Derek Stanford (5th round/Astros): Attended JC and signed with the Astros the following May. +
SS Tim Hummell (5th round/Padres): Solid pick this year anywhere from the end of the first round to the middle of the second. +
RHP Matt Riethmaier (5th round/Diamondbacks): Haven't heard his name mentioned as a prospect this year. -
RHP Jason Anderson (6th round/Royals): Still on the prospect map in about the same position he was before, maybe a little lower. -
C Kris Wilken (6th round/Red Sox): Now a third baseman and likely to return to Houston for his senior season. -
SS Brett Groves (6th round/Florida State): Groves has struggled to hit at times in college, but is still solid defensively. -
OF Miles Durham (7th round/Dodgers): Bothered by hamstring problems all spring while playing at Texas Tech. Will likely return for his senior season.-
LHP Clifton Lee (8th round/Marlins): Attended junior college, where he went completely undrafted due to arm problems, but has regained his status and then some. Could be a 2nd/3rd round pick. +
The tally through eight rounds is 11 on the plus side, 9 on the minus side. There were 11 more high school drafts in the 9th and 10th round who didn't sign. For the sake of brevity, I won't list them individually, but 7 of the 11 came out on the plus side, including potential high picks RHP Justin Wayne (Stanford) LHP Ryan Snare (North Carolina) and RHP Michael Schultz (Loyola Marymount).
That makes it 18 on the plus side, 13 on the minus side. Hardly a scientific study, but enough to indicate that those high school players who choose to bypass a chance to sign should temper their expectations about how they will fare when their turn comes around again in the draft.
You can't have a scientific study because the Draft and the world of scouting is an inexact science....
Here is another article from ESPN...
< Icouldn't post the link>
Tuesday, February 26
High school daze: Beckett seeks to beat history
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com
"Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys."
--Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"
Josh Beckett has been a legend since his high school days in Spring, Texas. The best prep pitching prospect to come out of Texas since Kerry Wood. Or Todd Van Poppel. Or David Clyde. Or Nolan Ryan.
Josh Beckett is expected to join the Marlins starting rotation this season.
Or maybe the best ever, from anywhere.
The 21-year-old right-hander stands 6-4 and throws laser beams and curveballs that break from Amarillo. His trek to superstardom began when the Florida Marlins made him the second overall pick in the 1999 draft; it clicks into high gear in April when he's expected to join the Marlins rotation as perhaps the most heralded rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden jumped from Class A to the major leagues at age 19 in 1984.
Interestingly enough, Gooden, selected by the Mets in 1982, is the last high school first-rounder drafted to win 20 games in one season. Beckett may have a fastball from the gods, but the fates of history are working against him.
The numbers overwhelmingly support James' assertion. ESPN.com researched all pitchers drafted in the first round from 1985 to 1997 (not including supplemental first-round picks or players who didn't sign) and here are some facts we discovered:
Seventy-two of 93 first-round pitchers from four-year colleges have reached the majors (77.4 percent).
Thirty-five of 61 high school first-rounders have reached the majors (57.3 percent).
The college pitchers have combined for a 4.23 ERA, while the high school pitchers have combined for a 4.75 ERA.
College pitchers have better careers. While acknowledging that players are still active, the 72 college pitchers who have reached the major leagues have averaged 617 career innings, 37 wins and 13 saves. The 35 high school major leaguers have averaged 424 innings, 24 wins and two saves.
Only one high school first-rounder in that 13-year span has a career ERA under 4.00 (Wood). That's one out of 61 ... a 1.6 percent return rate.
2001 pitchers
Pitchers selected in the first round of the 2001 draft:
Mark Prior, 2nd pick by Cubs, USC
Dewon Brazelton, 3rd pick by Devil Rays, Middle Tennessee State
Gavin Floyd, 4th pick by Phillies, Mount St. Joseph (Md.) HS
Josh Karp, 6th pick by Expos, UCLA
Chris Smith, 7th pick by Orioles, Cumberland (Tenn.) Univ.
Colt Griffin, 9th pick by Royals, Marshall (Texas) HS
Kenny Baugh, 11th pick by Tigers, Rice
Mike Jones, 12th pick by Brewers, Thunderbird (Ari.) HS
Kris Honel, 16th pick by White Sox, Providence Catholic (Ill.) HS
Dan Denham, 17th pick by Indians, Deer Valley (Calif.) HS
Aaron Heilman, 18th pick by Mets, Notre Dame
Jeremy Sowers, 20th pick by Reds, Ballard (Ky.) HS (didn't sign)
Brad Hennessey, 21st pick by Giants, Youngstown State
Jason Bulger, 22nd pick by Diamondbacks, Valdosta State
Macay McBride, 24th pick by Braves, Screven County (Ga.) HS
Jeremy Bonderman, 26th pick by Athletics, Pasco (Wash.) HS
Alan Horne, 27th pick by Indians, Marianna (Fla.) HS (didn't sign)
Justin Pope, 28th pick by Cardinals, Central Florida
Noah Lowry, 30th pick by Giants, Pepperdine
Eighteen college pitchers have an ERA under 4.00 (19.4 percent).
The best of the high school pitchers so far has been Steve Avery, with a career mark of 94-83, 4.17. The college pitchers have included Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Jack McDowell, Andy Benes, Charles Nagy, Aaron Sele, Greg Swindell and Bobby Witt, all of whom have won more than 100 games. Four other college pitchers have saved at least 100 games -- Roberto Hernandez, Gregg Olson, Billy Wagner and Billy Koch. No high schooler has more than 29 (Steve Karsay).
Despite this evidence, teams continue to invest heavily in high school pitchers. In 2001, 19 of 30 first-round draft choices were pitchers; nine of those 19 were high schoolers. Two of the nine didn't sign, but teams still paid out $14.725 million in bonuses to the other seven. In 2000, eight high school pitchers were selected in the first round, including five of the first 10 picks.
The St. Louis Cardinals have drafted more college pitchers in recent years than any other organization. Since 1990, they have taken 10 collegians in the first round. Even though just one (Braden Looper) was a top-10 pick, they've had Donovan Osborne, Allen Watson, Sean Lowe, Alan Benes, Matt Morris and Looper reach the majors.
"We never say we're looking just for a college pitcher," says John Mozeliak, the team's director of baseball operations who has worked in the Cardinals' scouting department since 1995. "Our approach is to get the best player we can get, whether he's a hitter or pitcher. But we are more likely to draft a college pitcher than a high school pitcher."
Scouting is a most undefined science, especially with pitchers, but Mozeliak explains the Cardinals' philosophy on college hurlers: "The physical maturity and strength you develop in a college program are essential," he says. "It's pretty clear that when you take an 18-year-old vs. a 21-year-old, the college kids have a better idea on how to pitch and can advance quicker. You don't have to be as patient."
It seems like the logical approach, especially when looking at a team like the Oakland A's, who won 102 games last season and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year, despite starting the season with a lower payroll than the Montreal Expos or Kansas City Royals.
The A's were built around the terrific trio of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, who went a combined 56-25 with a 3.43 ERA and combined to make less than $1 million in salary -- $997,500. The three were all college pitchers, with Mulder and Zito jumping quickly to the big leagues after being first-round picks in 1998 and 1999.
College or high school?
Teams which have selected the most college and high school pitchers in the first round dating back to 1985:
College pitchers
St. Louis 14
Anaheim 9
Detroit 8
San Francisco 7
Oakland 7
Kansas City 7
Chi. Cubs 7
Chi. White Sox 7
High school pitchers
Atlanta 7
Boston 5
Colorado 5
Minnesota 5
Chi. Cubs 4
Cleveland 4
Houston 4
Kansas City 4
Milwaukee 4
Seattle 4
On the other hand, teams that have relied on high school first-rounders have suffered. The Boston Red Sox drafted prep pitchers Andy Yount, Josh Garrett and John Curtice from 1995-97. Their failure to develop has meant the Red Sox have had to spend heavily in free-agent pitchers. A team like the Milwaukee Brewers hasn't even studied its own history. Milwaukee's best first-round picks in the last 15 years have been college pitchers Cal Eldred and Ben Sheets. Yet last year, it selected high school hurler Mike Jones in the first round.
According to Mozeliak, it's understandable why teams draft the high schoolers. "I think the mentality is a college pitcher is abused more, that you can take a young 18-year-old and prevent injuries and improve his mechanics," he said. "It's hard to argue against that if you have the right player, like Kerry Wood or Josh Beckett. ... College wasn't needed for those kids."
Perhaps part of the high-school mentality can be attributed to the success of the Atlanta Braves throughout the '90s. Their own big three of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz were all high school draftees. However, none were first-rounders -- Glavine, second round in 1984; Maddux, second round by the Chicago Cubs in 1984; and Smoltz, 22nd round by Detroit in 1985. Glavine and Smoltz also came from cold-weather states (Massachusetts and Michigan) that may have meant less wear and tear on their arms than high schoolers from warm-weather states like California, Florida or Texas (where the majority of first-round pitchers come from).
However, high schoolers do break down, despite the care teams take to prevent injuries. Some theorize the college pitchers have survived the "injury hump" that occurs as an individual matures from 18 to 21. Heralded prospects like Roger Salkeld (third overall pick by Mariners in 1989), Brien Taylor (first overall pick by Yankees in 1991) and more recently, Seattle's Ryan Anderson, were on track for big-league success until arm problems arised. Other "can't-miss" prospects like Todd Van Poppel (A's, 1990) and Matt White (Devil Rays, 1996) did miss.
So, Josh Beckett, beware. We hope 20 wins won't be your career total, but a yearly occurence. C.C. Sabathia (first round, 1998), let's hope Charlie Manuel doesn't abuse your talented young left arm this year. And Gavin Floyd (fourth overall pick, 2001), hopefully we'll still be reading about you 15 years from now.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
Here is another article from ESPN...
< Icouldn't post the link>
Tuesday, February 26
High school daze: Beckett seeks to beat history
By David Schoenfield
ESPN.com
"Perhaps the most phenomenal fact of life in baseball today is that major league teams continue to use first-round picks for high school pitchers. It has been obvious for twenty years that this is a stupid, stupid gamble ... yet every year, four to seven first-round picks are invested in these turkeys."
--Bill James, "The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract"
Josh Beckett has been a legend since his high school days in Spring, Texas. The best prep pitching prospect to come out of Texas since Kerry Wood. Or Todd Van Poppel. Or David Clyde. Or Nolan Ryan.
Josh Beckett is expected to join the Marlins starting rotation this season.
Or maybe the best ever, from anywhere.
The 21-year-old right-hander stands 6-4 and throws laser beams and curveballs that break from Amarillo. His trek to superstardom began when the Florida Marlins made him the second overall pick in the 1999 draft; it clicks into high gear in April when he's expected to join the Marlins rotation as perhaps the most heralded rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden jumped from Class A to the major leagues at age 19 in 1984.
Interestingly enough, Gooden, selected by the Mets in 1982, is the last high school first-rounder drafted to win 20 games in one season. Beckett may have a fastball from the gods, but the fates of history are working against him.
The numbers overwhelmingly support James' assertion. ESPN.com researched all pitchers drafted in the first round from 1985 to 1997 (not including supplemental first-round picks or players who didn't sign) and here are some facts we discovered:
Seventy-two of 93 first-round pitchers from four-year colleges have reached the majors (77.4 percent).
Thirty-five of 61 high school first-rounders have reached the majors (57.3 percent).
The college pitchers have combined for a 4.23 ERA, while the high school pitchers have combined for a 4.75 ERA.
College pitchers have better careers. While acknowledging that players are still active, the 72 college pitchers who have reached the major leagues have averaged 617 career innings, 37 wins and 13 saves. The 35 high school major leaguers have averaged 424 innings, 24 wins and two saves.
Only one high school first-rounder in that 13-year span has a career ERA under 4.00 (Wood). That's one out of 61 ... a 1.6 percent return rate.
2001 pitchers
Pitchers selected in the first round of the 2001 draft:
Mark Prior, 2nd pick by Cubs, USC
Dewon Brazelton, 3rd pick by Devil Rays, Middle Tennessee State
Gavin Floyd, 4th pick by Phillies, Mount St. Joseph (Md.) HS
Josh Karp, 6th pick by Expos, UCLA
Chris Smith, 7th pick by Orioles, Cumberland (Tenn.) Univ.
Colt Griffin, 9th pick by Royals, Marshall (Texas) HS
Kenny Baugh, 11th pick by Tigers, Rice
Mike Jones, 12th pick by Brewers, Thunderbird (Ari.) HS
Kris Honel, 16th pick by White Sox, Providence Catholic (Ill.) HS
Dan Denham, 17th pick by Indians, Deer Valley (Calif.) HS
Aaron Heilman, 18th pick by Mets, Notre Dame
Jeremy Sowers, 20th pick by Reds, Ballard (Ky.) HS (didn't sign)
Brad Hennessey, 21st pick by Giants, Youngstown State
Jason Bulger, 22nd pick by Diamondbacks, Valdosta State
Macay McBride, 24th pick by Braves, Screven County (Ga.) HS
Jeremy Bonderman, 26th pick by Athletics, Pasco (Wash.) HS
Alan Horne, 27th pick by Indians, Marianna (Fla.) HS (didn't sign)
Justin Pope, 28th pick by Cardinals, Central Florida
Noah Lowry, 30th pick by Giants, Pepperdine
Eighteen college pitchers have an ERA under 4.00 (19.4 percent).
The best of the high school pitchers so far has been Steve Avery, with a career mark of 94-83, 4.17. The college pitchers have included Kevin Brown, Mike Mussina, Jack McDowell, Andy Benes, Charles Nagy, Aaron Sele, Greg Swindell and Bobby Witt, all of whom have won more than 100 games. Four other college pitchers have saved at least 100 games -- Roberto Hernandez, Gregg Olson, Billy Wagner and Billy Koch. No high schooler has more than 29 (Steve Karsay).
Despite this evidence, teams continue to invest heavily in high school pitchers. In 2001, 19 of 30 first-round draft choices were pitchers; nine of those 19 were high schoolers. Two of the nine didn't sign, but teams still paid out $14.725 million in bonuses to the other seven. In 2000, eight high school pitchers were selected in the first round, including five of the first 10 picks.
The St. Louis Cardinals have drafted more college pitchers in recent years than any other organization. Since 1990, they have taken 10 collegians in the first round. Even though just one (Braden Looper) was a top-10 pick, they've had Donovan Osborne, Allen Watson, Sean Lowe, Alan Benes, Matt Morris and Looper reach the majors.
"We never say we're looking just for a college pitcher," says John Mozeliak, the team's director of baseball operations who has worked in the Cardinals' scouting department since 1995. "Our approach is to get the best player we can get, whether he's a hitter or pitcher. But we are more likely to draft a college pitcher than a high school pitcher."
Scouting is a most undefined science, especially with pitchers, but Mozeliak explains the Cardinals' philosophy on college hurlers: "The physical maturity and strength you develop in a college program are essential," he says. "It's pretty clear that when you take an 18-year-old vs. a 21-year-old, the college kids have a better idea on how to pitch and can advance quicker. You don't have to be as patient."
It seems like the logical approach, especially when looking at a team like the Oakland A's, who won 102 games last season and made the playoffs for a second consecutive year, despite starting the season with a lower payroll than the Montreal Expos or Kansas City Royals.
The A's were built around the terrific trio of Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, who went a combined 56-25 with a 3.43 ERA and combined to make less than $1 million in salary -- $997,500. The three were all college pitchers, with Mulder and Zito jumping quickly to the big leagues after being first-round picks in 1998 and 1999.
College or high school?
Teams which have selected the most college and high school pitchers in the first round dating back to 1985:
College pitchers
St. Louis 14
Anaheim 9
Detroit 8
San Francisco 7
Oakland 7
Kansas City 7
Chi. Cubs 7
Chi. White Sox 7
High school pitchers
Atlanta 7
Boston 5
Colorado 5
Minnesota 5
Chi. Cubs 4
Cleveland 4
Houston 4
Kansas City 4
Milwaukee 4
Seattle 4
On the other hand, teams that have relied on high school first-rounders have suffered. The Boston Red Sox drafted prep pitchers Andy Yount, Josh Garrett and John Curtice from 1995-97. Their failure to develop has meant the Red Sox have had to spend heavily in free-agent pitchers. A team like the Milwaukee Brewers hasn't even studied its own history. Milwaukee's best first-round picks in the last 15 years have been college pitchers Cal Eldred and Ben Sheets. Yet last year, it selected high school hurler Mike Jones in the first round.
According to Mozeliak, it's understandable why teams draft the high schoolers. "I think the mentality is a college pitcher is abused more, that you can take a young 18-year-old and prevent injuries and improve his mechanics," he said. "It's hard to argue against that if you have the right player, like Kerry Wood or Josh Beckett. ... College wasn't needed for those kids."
Perhaps part of the high-school mentality can be attributed to the success of the Atlanta Braves throughout the '90s. Their own big three of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and John Smoltz were all high school draftees. However, none were first-rounders -- Glavine, second round in 1984; Maddux, second round by the Chicago Cubs in 1984; and Smoltz, 22nd round by Detroit in 1985. Glavine and Smoltz also came from cold-weather states (Massachusetts and Michigan) that may have meant less wear and tear on their arms than high schoolers from warm-weather states like California, Florida or Texas (where the majority of first-round pitchers come from).
However, high schoolers do break down, despite the care teams take to prevent injuries. Some theorize the college pitchers have survived the "injury hump" that occurs as an individual matures from 18 to 21. Heralded prospects like Roger Salkeld (third overall pick by Mariners in 1989), Brien Taylor (first overall pick by Yankees in 1991) and more recently, Seattle's Ryan Anderson, were on track for big-league success until arm problems arised. Other "can't-miss" prospects like Todd Van Poppel (A's, 1990) and Matt White (Devil Rays, 1996) did miss.
So, Josh Beckett, beware. We hope 20 wins won't be your career total, but a yearly occurence. C.C. Sabathia (first round, 1998), let's hope Charlie Manuel doesn't abuse your talented young left arm this year. And Gavin Floyd (fourth overall pick, 2001), hopefully we'll still be reading about you 15 years from now.
David Schoenfield is the baseball editor at ESPN.com.
[QUOTE]Originally posted by Chill:
You can't have a scientific study because the Draft and the world of scouting is an inexact science....
100% correct! However, Baseball in general & scouting in particular IS the opinion business
You can't have a scientific study because the Draft and the world of scouting is an inexact science....
100% correct! However, Baseball in general & scouting in particular IS the opinion business
EVERY kid, from the time they're playing Little League wants to play pro ball. College players are in College because either they weren't drafted at all, weren't drafted high enough to match their or their Parents often unrealistic expectations, or weren't offered enough money to sign.
How many College players are there because they prefer playing College Baseball? None.How many are there after turning down GOOD offers? Very, very few. The FIRST chance, if they ever get a chance, ALL of these kids will want to play Pro ball.
How many College players are there because they prefer playing College Baseball? None.How many are there after turning down GOOD offers? Very, very few. The FIRST chance, if they ever get a chance, ALL of these kids will want to play Pro ball.
Here we go again............
It is obvious this can be debated until the cows jump over the moon. When it comes down to it, this is a decision made with parent and son, you gather information and then try to help them make an intelligent decision. And some do take the small bonus, just to go play the real thing, some turn down exceptional money to go to school. It was THEIR choice.
Many parents may have influence over their son's deciding to go to college, just as many have influence of their son going pro. Signing bonus's that amount to a fair amount are often taken because the family needs the money. In a few years the money could be gone, and if their is no success in pro ball one must begin their education (we all know not too many take advantage of the program while playing, because they are working), now they have to go to school and still work.
If a player was offerd 650K as a bonus, turns it down and goes to school then gets signed with a bonus of 50K, that was HIS choice. He is still going to get to play pro ball, if that is what he really wanted. We are not to say it was right or wrong. To some the money may not even be an issue.
Interesting, while shopping for a car today the manager of the store told me his best friend was drafted out of HS, real nice bonus, no huge success, regrets to this day he never went to college first. The same scenerio, money is gone, has to work and go to school. Speaking to a gentleman the other day who went to college, has an olympic GM, played 5 years pro. Does it make him a better person because he can tell his grand kids he played pro ball, no. His neighbors don't even know he has a GM or made decent money playing ball. He only knows he is making nice money now, can support his family in a nice lifestyle and still is the same person whether he went to play pro ball or not.
Interesting article this week's SI comparing two Josh's, Beckett and Hamilton. Hamilton it is assumed has been suspended from ball due to obvious drug problems. This kid got a great signing bonus, doesn't seem to have made his life that much easier or happier. The both had exceptional talent, just, IMO anything can happen. Some of us may say at least he got a nice bonus, some of us may say $$$ doesn't always bring happiness.
To debate this issue is great, to make one feel that their opinion is less than another's is wrong, you all get the idea.
Many parents may have influence over their son's deciding to go to college, just as many have influence of their son going pro. Signing bonus's that amount to a fair amount are often taken because the family needs the money. In a few years the money could be gone, and if their is no success in pro ball one must begin their education (we all know not too many take advantage of the program while playing, because they are working), now they have to go to school and still work.
If a player was offerd 650K as a bonus, turns it down and goes to school then gets signed with a bonus of 50K, that was HIS choice. He is still going to get to play pro ball, if that is what he really wanted. We are not to say it was right or wrong. To some the money may not even be an issue.
Interesting, while shopping for a car today the manager of the store told me his best friend was drafted out of HS, real nice bonus, no huge success, regrets to this day he never went to college first. The same scenerio, money is gone, has to work and go to school. Speaking to a gentleman the other day who went to college, has an olympic GM, played 5 years pro. Does it make him a better person because he can tell his grand kids he played pro ball, no. His neighbors don't even know he has a GM or made decent money playing ball. He only knows he is making nice money now, can support his family in a nice lifestyle and still is the same person whether he went to play pro ball or not.
Interesting article this week's SI comparing two Josh's, Beckett and Hamilton. Hamilton it is assumed has been suspended from ball due to obvious drug problems. This kid got a great signing bonus, doesn't seem to have made his life that much easier or happier. The both had exceptional talent, just, IMO anything can happen. Some of us may say at least he got a nice bonus, some of us may say $$$ doesn't always bring happiness.
To debate this issue is great, to make one feel that their opinion is less than another's is wrong, you all get the idea.
Chill,
I think this article is the real deal. It should be an interesting draft, but I think that the top round arm picks will go to a majority of college players who have proved themselves, got bigger, got stronger and some to the top HS pitchers in the country.
I think this article is the real deal. It should be an interesting draft, but I think that the top round arm picks will go to a majority of college players who have proved themselves, got bigger, got stronger and some to the top HS pitchers in the country.
PG Staff posted
I checked the AL 2003 All Star Team. Players signed as follows;
19 high schoolers
11 4 year college players
4 JUCO players including Posada, Donnelly and Guardado. Of the high schoolers, 8 were born outside the USA.
quote:
If anyone has the time to look through last year's American and National League All Star rosters, it could help clear up the picture. How many MLB All Stars signed out of high school? How many out of 4 year colleges? I'm guessing there might be one or more that signed out of a JC.
I checked the AL 2003 All Star Team. Players signed as follows;
19 high schoolers
11 4 year college players
4 JUCO players including Posada, Donnelly and Guardado. Of the high schoolers, 8 were born outside the USA.
Dad04,
I checked the NL 2003 All Star rosters and as near as I can tell, it looks like:
21 high schoolers
12 4 year college players
2 JUCO players.
Of the high school players, roughly 5 or 6 were born outside the USA.
So presuming our figures are correct:
The 2003 MLB All Star rosters included
40 high school players
23 4 year college players
6 JUCO players
1 player seems to be missing from the totals.
Yet some clubs don't draft high school players. Truth is they were all high school players at one time! The secret is picking the right ones.
I checked the NL 2003 All Star rosters and as near as I can tell, it looks like:
21 high schoolers
12 4 year college players
2 JUCO players.
Of the high school players, roughly 5 or 6 were born outside the USA.
So presuming our figures are correct:
The 2003 MLB All Star rosters included
40 high school players
23 4 year college players
6 JUCO players
1 player seems to be missing from the totals.
Yet some clubs don't draft high school players. Truth is they were all high school players at one time! The secret is picking the right ones.
Can you tell me how many players
total make up the minor leagues?
750 in Majors
??? = Minors
total make up the minor leagues?
750 in Majors
??? = Minors
Guestimate
29 MLB teams x 3.5 minor league teams each X 25 players per team = 2,338 affiliated minor league players?
29 MLB teams x 3.5 minor league teams each X 25 players per team = 2,338 affiliated minor league players?
Each team has at least 1 rookie ball team, 1 low A, 1 high A, 1 AA & 1 AAA team. Therefore math would seem to be 30 teams X 5 teams = 1500 players.
Many teams have more than 1 rookie league team & some have teams in the Dominican Leagues. Safe bet would be 1750 - 2000 players.
Many teams have more than 1 rookie league team & some have teams in the Dominican Leagues. Safe bet would be 1750 - 2000 players.
check your calculator voodoo 
150 teams x 25 players = 3750
So, probably about 4000 total
150 teams x 25 players = 3750
So, probably about 4000 total
From the minor league baseball website:
AAA - 46 teams
AA - 30 teams
A (high) - 30 teams
A (short season) - 22
Rookie - 82 teams
210 teams x 25 players = 5,250
There will be some overlap between short season and rookie players. Assume that to be 500 players? Making the total minor league players somewhere around 4,700 each year.
AAA - 46 teams
AA - 30 teams
A (high) - 30 teams
A (short season) - 22
Rookie - 82 teams
210 teams x 25 players = 5,250
There will be some overlap between short season and rookie players. Assume that to be 500 players? Making the total minor league players somewhere around 4,700 each year.
Bob;
Where do those extra 16 AAA teams come from? BA only has 30 total - 2 leagues listed.
Where do those extra 16 AAA teams come from? BA only has 30 total - 2 leagues listed.
quote:
Originally posted by CANADIANLEFTY:
check your calculator voodoo
150 teams x 25 players = 3750
So, probably about 4000 total
That's what I get for trying to talk on the phone & type & the same time. I plead insanity & throw myself on the mercy of the court.
Guilty.
I only missed the number by half. Not bad for a commercial real estate appraiser. 
Thats what I get for drinking 3 glasses of Merlot and typing.
Canadianlefty,
Here's a link to the source of my info:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/teams/?loc=class
Here's a link to the source of my info:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/teams/?loc=class
Bob,
There's a few of those AAA teams I don't recognize, but I sure like the name "Sarape Makers".
Aguascalientes Railroadmen
Angelopolis Tigers
Campeche Pirates
Cancun Lobstermen
Mexico Red Devils
Monclova Steelers
Monterrey Sultans
Oaxaca Warriors
Puebla Parrots
Saltillo Sarape Makers
San Luis Tuneros
Tabasco Cattlemen
Tijuana Bulls
Vaqueros Laguna
Veracruz Red Eagles
Yucatan Lions
I would guess most clubs have around 200 players in there system at any given time. This includes those on active rosters and others who are injured. The best guess would be 5,000 to 6,000 total players in MLB organizations.
There's a few of those AAA teams I don't recognize, but I sure like the name "Sarape Makers".
Aguascalientes Railroadmen
Angelopolis Tigers
Campeche Pirates
Cancun Lobstermen
Mexico Red Devils
Monclova Steelers
Monterrey Sultans
Oaxaca Warriors
Puebla Parrots
Saltillo Sarape Makers
San Luis Tuneros
Tabasco Cattlemen
Tijuana Bulls
Vaqueros Laguna
Veracruz Red Eagles
Yucatan Lions
I would guess most clubs have around 200 players in there system at any given time. This includes those on active rosters and others who are injured. The best guess would be 5,000 to 6,000 total players in MLB organizations.
Dad04
3 glasses of merlot...
One each for
Bronson's start on Saturday,
Youkilis' MLB debut, and
Pedro's one mistake Sunday??
3 glasses of merlot...
One each for
Bronson's start on Saturday,
Youkilis' MLB debut, and
Pedro's one mistake Sunday??
Did someone say "merlot??" 
VBPAMom
I was going to ask Dad04 if he was hanging out
with "Vous" last night!?!?
I was going to ask Dad04 if he was hanging out
with "Vous" last night!?!?
I thinks me picked a bad weekend to give up the grape....the Cajuns have chosen the week before the conference tourney to go in the tank with the Sawks.
But wait'll next year, Dad!!!
Orlando
Amen for next year in the bayou (by you!), just crossing my toes for the Sawks this year, as I did last year, and the year before, and come to think, for a long time.
Amen for next year in the bayou (by you!), just crossing my toes for the Sawks this year, as I did last year, and the year before, and come to think, for a long time.
All teams have:
1 AAA team
1 AA team
1 high A team
1 low A team
1 rookie league team
Most have either a short season low A team or another rookie league team as well, so a good estimate would be:
30 teams x 6 affiliates x 25 players = 4500 players. Add on the players that are injured, you're looking at 4500-5000 pros in the minors, not counting indy ball, of course.
1 AAA team
1 AA team
1 high A team
1 low A team
1 rookie league team
Most have either a short season low A team or another rookie league team as well, so a good estimate would be:
30 teams x 6 affiliates x 25 players = 4500 players. Add on the players that are injured, you're looking at 4500-5000 pros in the minors, not counting indy ball, of course.
