Depth of Very Talented Position Players

Metrics are nice but the guys with metrics that can hit competitive pitching will play at the next level. Check Perfect Game Batting Stats of the players....that will give a feel for who can hit and who can't.

Yes, many talented players will get shut out.  It is like a funnel, and the higher you go, the tighter the neck gets.

Your metrics comparison can "backfire"!

if a coach only on metrics. The Coach will be deceived.   "The eyes of the scout".

Shortstops are always told to backhand for the best throwing reading, however most errors on infielders are created by backhanding, because your eyes do not focus on the ball into the glove. This created lazy "showcase" infielders.

"keep the ball in front of you". the only time you backhand is when the ball is hit with "high" velocity.

Bob

Interesting info, thanks!

I wonder if all this hype will make showcases more of a money maker then a value to schools

Reading the comments...perhaps game video is the difference maker? Actually seeing how the player performs in a game. Are they doing exceptional things in competition?

I’m sure the showcase metrics can help get you on their radar. Maybe even some offers during this year long dead period. If I were a coach though I’d be using game film to confirm the showcase data

@Francis7 posted:

There can't be spots for all of them after High School, right? Some of these extremely talented kids are going to get shutout, no? What must they do to prevent it?

There were kids who weren't starters on my son's HS team who are on D3 college teams (didn't play much, but it was the short covid year).  I'd assume that any players who are "extremely talented" can find a place to play, if they are willing to go out of their local area to regions where there are plenty of colleges with baseball teams. 

Whether it’s getting recruited or sticking once in the program it’s all about mental toughness. It comes down to, how badly do you want it? How badly are you willing to work for it. For a lot of kids it comes easy through high school. Getting to the next level and sticking may not be so easy.

@Dadof3 posted:

I wonder if all this hype will make showcases more of a money maker then a value to schools

That is already the case. Showcases have almost always been more of a money maker for whoever puts them on than they are a value to the schools whose coaches attend. The coaches that attend most showcases are unpaid Assistants and lots of them go to get a paycheck for attending.

I posted this a couple of years ago and got a lot of dissenting opinions from posters who are over-focused on metrics. So I will try again. I’m not endorsing Troy Silva as any kind of guru - but in this case he is right on the mark. Metrics have no value if you don’t know how to play the game.

@adbono posted:

I posted this a couple of years ago and got a lot of dissenting opinions from posters who are over-focused on metrics. So I will try again. I’m not endorsing Troy Silva as any kind of guru - but in this case he is right on the mark. Metrics have no value if you don’t know how to play the game.

I genuinely hesitate when talking in absolutes with baseball or even life for that matter.

However, I don't hesitate to say that #3 on the "if u don't have" list is what separates those that truly fail. Everyone eventually gets knocked down a peg or two. It's inevitable and only a matter of time. However mental toughness is why some will choose to stay down while other's choose to rise back up.

@adbono posted:

I posted this a couple of years ago and got a lot of dissenting opinions from posters who are over-focused on metrics. So I will try again. I’m not endorsing Troy Silva as any kind of guru - but in this case he is right on the mark. Metrics have no value if you don’t know how to play the game.

It took me many years to overcome this way of thinking. It was totally based upon my experiences coaching youth sports, and in particular, baseball.

When I drafted my Little League teams I ALWAYS drafted kids who fell into the second list. I was interested in good kids who worked hard and made the experience enjoyable for all: fellow players, coaches, umpires, and parents. I felt it was also my duty to make sure each and every member of my team WANTED to play the following season.  We didn't always win the championship but we certainly were in the mix year after year. I drafted pitchers who could throw strikes, not kids who threw the hardest. I drafted kids who would try their best to get a hit at the plate and didn't cry and beat the plate with their bat when they failed. I also provided an equal amount of playing time for everyone on the team, including my own son(s). I believed (and still do believe) that everyone deserves a chance to be a hero, and without fail, every kid on every team I've ever coached did indeed become a hero at some point during the season. This happened BECAUSE they had many chances to succeed, and even though they failed way more than they succeeded, they had these chances because they got the same amount of playing time as the studs. This can and SHOULD happen in Little League (house league) but after that it is simply not feasible.

It took me a while to realize that metrics will always win. College and pro scouts will always take metrics--the first half of the list over the second half. I now understand why.

Very few kids in the first half of the list will possess the attributes in the second half. This is how players get weeded out as they progress through each successive level. What you see in the MLB are the players from the first list which happen to have all the characteristics from the second.

What you won't see are players from the second list who don't also have the metrics from the first list. Don't be fooled into thinking metrics don't matter!

If you take every pitcher who throws 90+ you will eventually find MLB pitchers. The kid who threw 84 and had every attribute from the second list? His journey ended.

Metrics matter - but they aren’t the “be all end all” that some people seem to think. They (metrics) happen to be the things that can be measured at a showcase so attendees can be charged a fee. More hype than substance a lot of the time.

I am usually 100% eye to eye with @adbono, but I think the Silva tweet is only spot on when looking through one lens.  If we're talking longer term, yes, I'd agree it's spot on.  But I'd argue that in the short and medium? term, a player can have outstanding measurables that will allow him to play the game longer than most.  For one, those "If u don't have" items require much more time to accurately measure.  Larger sample sizes are necessary unless a kid is severely lacking in them.  Yes, if a kid with a 112 mph exit velo throws his bat into the stands after striking out, that 112 won't matter.  But shy of egregious examples like that, hitting certain numbers absolutely matter.  If you can pitch a FB 95-97 mph, it definitely does NOT mean "nothing."  Have that, and none of those other things are necessary AT THAT POINT.  You will have no issues finding someone giving you an opp to keep playing the game.  Now, if you want to play the game longer, yes, you'll then need all those intangibles.

But having said all that, let's acknowledge the reality.  Few players who don't have those intangibles produce high metrics.  Steel sharpens steel.  Success usually breeds more success.  How many catchers do you know with 1.89 pop times, 82 mph C velos, 7.1 60s, and 96 mph exit velos that only have the numbers and none of those intangibles?  Yes, we've all seen "those" guys who put up the huge numbers but are dumb, mentally-weak, have poor instincts, etc, but aren't those guys the exceptions?  I am no expert, but I've been to enough showcases, camps, travel tourneys (dating back to 7U), etc and far more times than not, the biggest producers are much closer to checking all those items in the intangible list than not.

Further, I personally know (my son's previous teammates) quite a few D1 commits who have great numbers but are lacking in those intangibles.  At some point, it'll catch up with them, but for now, they're D1 bound with good amounts money thrown at them.  And even if they can't hack it in D1, what's going to happen?  Some D2, D3, NAIA or JUCO program will offer them a chance to keep playing for them.  So I just can't come around to the measurables meaning "nothing."  Getting at least part of your education paid for and being a part of the game longer than 95% of everyone else is not nothing in my book.

With regard to @Francis7's question, actually - at this point - I think there will be spots for most everyone.  Extremely talented kids being shut out?  Nope.  I'm convinced that was a doomsday myth.  Back in Sept/Oct, my answers would have been 180 degrees different, but the last 3-4 months my fears were completely destroyed.  I am still seeing commitments coming through and for kids I never considered college level players.  I haven't seen even one talented player end up with something that was "beneath" him.  Let alone, get shut out.  Not one.  Now, let me be clear.  I do think it's highly likely that the carnage is coming at some point.  I don't see how it can't.  What I see all seems way too good to be true, so it probably is.

@adbono posted:

Metrics matter - but they aren’t the “be all end all” that some people seem to think. They (metrics) happen to be the things that can be measured at a showcase so attendees can be charged a fee. More hype than substance a lot of the time.

Let's pretend that PG puts on free showcases for every prep-player in the country. Let's pretend further that every prep-player takes up PG on their generous offer.

Let's now simplify it and look at only at a single class of RHP's and just their fastball velocity (even though technology now allows the collection of WAY more data than we ever thought possible).

Now I know what every prep-RHP in the country throws. As a coach I'm going to focus on the kids that currently throw 95+. I can do that because a LOT of kids will have this metric. What about the kids who throw 85 and look "projectable"? Sure, maybe one day they will throw 95+. But who cares? There are so many kids that throw 95+ my time is better served just scouting them; I don't have to speculate where they will be in a few years--they are ALREADY there. If I get at least one RHP out of the 3-5 RHP's I've committed from this class who becomes a stud (he possess attributes beyond metrics) then I have been successful. I can cut the others because I will have a new crop of commitments each successive year.

So do metrics matter if showcases are free?

And by the way, if I were running PG I would certainly charge a hefty fee. I costs a lot to run these showcases and provide these metrics.

The reason PG (and others) "hype" 95+ velocity is because it absolutely matters. That player will definitely get the chance to prove himself. If the substance isn't there the hype will eventually fade away--just as it does for many (most) players.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

My draft strategy was similar, but I'm not gonna lie, sometimes a kid with a hot mom squeezed his way in there without me even seeing the kid take a ground ball.

The 'ol GLM draft pick!

@ABSORBER posted:

Let's pretend that PG puts on free showcases for every prep-player in the country. Let's pretend further that every prep-player takes up PG on their generous offer.

Let's now simplify it and look at only at a single class of RHP's and just their fastball velocity (even though technology now allows the collection of WAY more data than we ever thought possible).

Now I know what every prep-RHP in the country throws. As a coach I'm going to focus on the kids that currently throw 95+. I can do that because a LOT of kids will have this metric. What about the kids who throw 85 and look "projectable"? Sure, maybe one day they will throw 95+. But who cares? There are so many kids that throw 95+ my time is better served just scouting them; I don't have to speculate where they will be in a few years--they are ALREADY there. If I get at least one RHP out of the 3-5 RHP's I've committed from this class who becomes a stud (he possess attributes beyond metrics) then I have been successful. I can cut the others because I will have a new crop of commitments each successive year.

So do metrics matter if showcases are free?

And by the way, if I were running PG I would certainly charge a hefty fee. I costs a lot to run these showcases and provide these metrics.

The reason PG (and others) "hype" 95+ velocity is because it absolutely matters. That player will definitely get the chance to prove himself. If the substance isn't there the hype will eventually fade away--just as it does for many (most) players.

The focus is on a Depth of Very Talented Position Players

One thing that I'm seeing happen this year, is kids quitting.  Not going to the transfer portal...just quitting.  Maybe it has always happened, but the older guys have said they've never seen kids quit like this, that weren't cut or asked to leave.  I think they just aren't seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.  There is too much in front of them.    The rosters are huge.  The time commitment is huge and at least for the Big 12, only 30 can suit up even at home games.  You really have to want to play, and the crowded rosters are around for awhile.  Couple that with being isolated (we were basically told that the boys can't go out to eat with us after games, can't come home, can't eat out when they travel) and mental toughness becomes probably the most valuable tool once you get on campus.

Spot on, @ABSORBER.  Coaches are exactly like the rest of us in that time is their most precious commodity.  In their personal and professional lives.  Every coach sets thresholds.  And can afford to.  Any kid below whatever threshold they set, won't ever get looked at.  Will they occasionally miss out on a stud due to drawing their lines?  Absolutely.  But look where they're at.  Hundreds of kids are blowing up their email inboxes every day begging to get in.  With limited time and resources, whittling kids down through metrics is just plain smart.  Ask Vegas; they'll tell you about numbers.  Last I checked, Iowa Western (premier JUCO) has 28 commits in their 2021 class.  How many of those 28 do they absolutely NEED to pan out?  Not 28 or anything close to it.  6-8 could be productive and they'll be more than fine.

@anotherparent:  "There were kids who weren't starters on my son's HS team who are on D3 college teams"

@Danj: "With regard to @Francis7's question, actually - at this point - I think there will be spots for most everyone.  Extremely talented kids being shut out? ...  I am still seeing commitments coming through and for kids I never considered college level players.  I haven't seen even one talented player end up with something that was "beneath" him.  Let alone, get shut out.  Not one."

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

I was checking out the roster of an east coast very high academic D3 school and saw local kid I never heard of.  He played for a very competitive large HS but had never started once in 4 years.  Had like 10 AB as a senior position player.  Must have showed well on his club team, right.  Meanwhile, my 2023 made varsity as a freshman and will likely start as SS or CF this year as a soph on a team which is one class size down but will likely compete in the HS state tourny.   But his travel coach has privately hinted we should be thinking D3 all the way.   Then my mind races and I think, maybe he won't even find a place that is enough of a balance between baseball and academics... and he picks academics.  Boom. baseball done.

@fly996 posted:

The focus is on a Depth of Very Talented Position Players

You are correct! It is just easier to look at pitching metrics because everyone understands them.

But if you are hitting off a tee at 82mph and weigh 150 lbs. you are not going to get a lot of looks, even if you do hit .500 every season of HS ball.

Maybe if you are an OF who throws 99 and runs 6.5 they will see some projection in your frame!  But I guess those are just metrics as well.

The .500 HS average--not so much!

@baseballhs posted:

One thing that I'm seeing happen this year, is kids quitting.  Not going to the transfer portal...just quitting.  Maybe it has always happened, but the older guys have said they've never seen kids quit like this, that weren't cut or asked to leave.  I think they just aren't seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.  There is too much in front of them.    The rosters are huge.  The time commitment is huge and at least for the Big 12, only 30 can suit up even at home games.  You really have to want to play, and the crowded rosters are around for awhile.  Couple that with being isolated (we were basically told that the boys can't go out to eat with us after games, can't come home, can't eat out when they travel) and mental toughness becomes probably the most valuable tool once you get on campus.

Interesting you say this, and maybe it needs a new thread.  I just had a look through a bunch of rosters at all levels, for kids we know who play college ball.  Some schools didn't have their spring rosters posted yet.  The ones that did, most rosters were not significantly larger than last year at this time (i.e. pre-covid).  Of the D1s, I saw two with more than 44, but the rest were 37-40.   Saw one D3 that had ballooned to over 55, one NAIA that had gone from 30 to over 40, but most were within 5 or 6 players of last year.  I'd assume that that the dreaded influx of transfers and returning seniors not materializing; or, it means a lot more kids did quit.

The question is, were the kids who quit encouraged by their coaches to quit?

There are probably players convinced they can’t succeed due to all the issues with Covid. Players who don’t hear or ignore these stories will be just fine as long as they work hard.

I graduated from college during the Jimmy Carter years. I ignored everyone who said good jobs were hard to come by. I received an offer from my #1 choice. Then, no one told me I couldn’t succeed because the economy sucked. I was rookie of the year.

I think some are told they probably won't play, but at least 2 from our recruiting class just made the decision  based on play time in inter squad scrimmages. We have one of the larger rosters with a lot of kids who returned that normally wouldn't have.

The Internet can make things more abundant than they are. This is similar to those shit storms in the internet, it looks like those are a lot of people but in reality a few hundred people look a lot but it is not.

There are many thousand college players so if there are a few hundred players posting great metrics that looks like a lot but it really isn't.

It looks like everyone throws 90 nowadays but still if you look at all college levels and not just top d1 programs I would guess that the big majority doesn't throw 90. But those guys throwing 85 in a D3 school are not the guys which get featured in the internet

@ABSORBER posted:

You are correct! It is just easier to look at pitching metrics because everyone understands them.

But if you are hitting off a tee at 82mph and weigh 150 lbs. you are not going to get a lot of looks, even if you do hit .500 every season of HS ball.

Maybe if you are an OF who throws 99 and runs 6.5 they will see some projection in your frame!  But I guess those are just metrics as well.

The .500 HS average--not so much!

I pretty sure college coaches are mostly looking at travel team results, not HS stats. If a 150lb kid hit .500  against quality travel competition I'm sure he would get looks.

Metrics mean nothing for position players if they can't hit. You can run like the wind, have a cannon for an arm, and hit the leather off the ball in BP. If you can't hit 85+ effortlessly, there is no future for you in D1 baseball.

Every tweet, post, like, etc is absolute garbage if they are not squaring up future college pitchers and making hard outs on a daily basis.

High school players who hit 75-80 but struggle with upper 80s pitching do not develop into quality hitters. I've seen and know so many kids who look great at PBR events and on film that are gone after a year from their college because it was all a scam.

The good coaches know that in game performances are more important than some big numbers and a nice tweet. This is why the travel circuit is so important and getting to the right tournaments matter. You need to prove you can hit good pitching. Nobody cares about how Johnny hit two homers off 79 last weekend. His exit velo won't matter if he can't catch up to 88.

Metrics are nice to see if you're worth a second look against decent arms. When the homework isn't done and showcase players show up on campus, they're usually gone within the first two years.

^^^ not sure I follow

Coaches that I know would quickly lose interest in a guy who weighs a buck 150 soaking wet with an 80 EV. They aren’t stupid, and are pressed for time. They know that his 500 batting average won’t hold up when he steps up to college level competition; especially if the metrics don’t match.  

@fly996 posted:

I pretty sure college coaches are mostly looking at travel team results, not HS stats. If a 150lb kid hit .500  against quality travel competition I'm sure he would get looks.

Nobody will know that kid is hitting .500 against quality travel competition because nobody will bother to check when they see he weighs 150 and his 80 exit velo isn't driving the ball to the fence.

Don't be fooled, size does matter.

If a 150 pound kid is getting looks it's because he does have metrics and there's hope he'll get bigger with age and a strength program.

@ABSORBER posted:

Nobody will know that kid is hitting .500 against quality travel competition because nobody will bother to check when they see he weighs 150 and his 80 exit velo isn't driving the ball to the fence.

Don't be fooled, size does matter.

If a 150 pound kid is getting looks it's because he does have metrics and there's hope he'll get bigger with age and a strength program.

Just a quick check of some local D1 2021 Rosters....

Fairfield University - INFIELDER 5'10" 155 LBS  - JUNIOR
UCONN -INFIELDER 5'7" 160 LBS  - REDSHIRT SOPHOMORE

Quinnipiac - OUTFIELD 5'10" 160 LBS  - GRADUATE STUDENT

Quinnipiac - OUTFIELD 5'8" 165 LBS  - FIRST YEAR

SHU - INF Senior 5-8 160

SHU - C Junior 5-9 165

SHU - OF Sophomore 5-11 160

CCSU - Outfield REDSHIRT-Fr.  5-8 165

RI - REDSHIRT-Sr. INF 5-8 160

RI - REDSHIRT-Sr. OF/C 5-11 165

RI - Sr. OF 5-11 165

RI - Fr. INF 5-9 165

There are plenty of 150-160 lbs HS guys that will play college baseball

There are 160 Guys who get drafted (Nick Madrigal) but they are plus runners, can hit velo and have projectability to gain some strength.

So, great metrics is the hot girl in the short dress as she walks by you. Size is her voice and intelligence when she speaks to you. And, game performance against legitimate competition is why you ask her to go on a date?

@Francis7 posted:

So, great metrics is the hot girl in the short dress as she walks by you. Size is her voice and intelligence when she speaks to you. And, game performance against legitimate competition is why you ask her to go on a date?

Right, but she also needs to be smart, a hard worker and have a good attitude...

Not a good metaphor, imo, because you've left out that you need to hear from her pastor that she's a good person before taking more interest.  I don't think that that happens in the case of a date, but I'm sure it happens in the case of baseball players and their travel or HS coaches.

@fly996 posted:

Just a quick check of some local D1 2021 Rosters....

Fairfield University - INFIELDER 5'10" 155 LBS  - JUNIOR
UCONN -INFIELDER 5'7" 160 LBS  - REDSHIRT SOPHOMORE

Quinnipiac - OUTFIELD 5'10" 160 LBS  - GRADUATE STUDENT

Quinnipiac - OUTFIELD 5'8" 165 LBS  - FIRST YEAR

SHU - INF Senior 5-8 160

SHU - C Junior 5-9 165

SHU - OF Sophomore 5-11 160

CCSU - Outfield REDSHIRT-Fr.  5-8 165

RI - REDSHIRT-Sr. INF 5-8 160

RI - REDSHIRT-Sr. OF/C 5-11 165

RI - Sr. OF 5-11 165

RI - Fr. INF 5-9 165

There are plenty of 150-160 lbs HS guys that will play college baseball

I didn't have the time nor the energy to look up each one these, but I did for the first kid. Local MIF (go figure) and even found him on PG. Needless to say he isn't a normal 155lb kid, and I would assume the others aren't either. Also to further that line of thought are we sure he actually weighs 155lbs??? PG had him listed at 155 back in 2016. After all I use to wrestle, and most guys that I know with his build had to cut a few pounds to make 160. 10-15-20 additional pounds of pure muscle from a college strengthen and conditioning program on top of an already athletic build can make a world of difference, and is probably why PG graded him an 8 (projectable).

I post all this still agreeing to the premise of what Troy Silva is getting at. However, it is presented as the bottom list is not only more important, but it completely trumps the top list. This mind-set while it may feel right is just plain foolish, especially in today's world. Additionally for every 1 kid on a college roster that weighs a questionable 155lbs, there are at least 30 other guys that weigh much closer to 200 or above. Good luck with those odds, and they only get worse as the level of baseball approaches P5 D1 play.

@ReluctantO'sFan posted:

I didn't have the time nor the energy to look up each one these, but I did for the first kid. Local MIF (go figure) and even found him on PG. Needless to say he isn't a normal 155lb kid, and I would assume the others aren't either. Also to further that line of thought are we sure he actually weighs 155lbs??? PG had him listed at 155 back in 2016. After all I use to wrestle, and most guys that I know with his build had to cut a few pounds to make 160. 10-15-20 additional pounds of pure muscle from a college strengthen and conditioning program on top of an already athletic build can make a world of difference, and is probably why PG graded him an 8 (projectable).

I post all this still agreeing to the premise of what Troy Silva is getting at. However, it is presented as the bottom list is not only more important, but it completely trumps the top list. This mind-set while it may feel right is just plain foolish, especially in today's world. Additionally for every 1 kid on a college roster that weighs a questionable 155lbs, there are at least 30 other guys that weigh much closer to 200 or above. Good luck with those odds, and they only get worse as the level of baseball approaches P5 D1 play.

Not sure what you mean by "not a normal 155 lb kid?" The point is the 155 lb kid was probably around that weight or less when he was in HS being looked at.

Also, I'm sure if we look at D2 and D3 rosters we would find an even higher % of kids in this weight range.  Smaller position players do get college looks (and offers) if they are good enough....

"not a normal 155 lb kid?"

His build/athleticism/first step/etc... he had different metrics than the ten thousand other kids who weigh the same and are trying to playing baseball at the next level. The thought is very, very simple - Projectable. Add a couple pounds of man muscle and he might turn into something. Add a few of the 2nd list qualities and he just might stick around to see it come to fruition. But, make no mistake the reason these guys are given a chance is they have something on the 1st list. Not trying to rain on anyone's parade, but to believe otherwise is just a feel good story. 

I think with the old does size matter discussion you simply have to state that you must be better if you are smaller.

Yeah guys like altuve or madrigal can play in the majors but they have things to make up for this. That they made it doesn't mean it isn't harder.

But in the end you need to produce on the field so it doesn't make sense to worry about it, just make sure you are the best and strongest player you can be.