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Does the draft really get the best players?

CADadCADad5,000+ posts
No doubt the players selected in the first ten rounds are the best players available with few exceptions. However, at some point later in the draft one has to wonder if the players most likely to succeed are being selected or just the players most likely to be signable.

For example, one of the players drafted (admittedly probably a DNF) out of our HS conference threw 14 1/3 innings vs. the top 3 finishers in the league. He gave up 24H and 16ER and was 0-4 vs the top teams in the league. He also threw twice against other top teams outside the league and was hit hard against both of them. He's obviously got some zip on the ball posting 55Ks in about 46 innings overall.

On the other hand our HS had a pitcher who threw high 80s, hit 90+ and was very effective against the top teams who went undrafted. Not only that but this was a fresh arm just learning how to pitch whose velocity might continue to increase. Probably not overly signable though. I believe his K per inning ratio was as good or better than the pitcher who was drafted.

Three players were drafted out of the conference and one player is considered a top prospect for next years draft. Their teams came in 4th, 5th & 7th. How much impact did they have? Aren't they supposed to have far more talent than the opposition and therefore make a difference in how well their teams do?

How could the players from the top 3 teams who had not a single player drafted jump all over a pitcher who was drafted?

You can say all you want about talent and projectability but I've got to wonder when the evidence is this overwhelming.

Does this mean that I don't think this pitcher should have been drafted? No. I'm sure he has plenty of talent. Does this mean that someone overlooked some good players because they were facing some of the best pitching in the nation on a regular basis? You bet.
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TPMTPMHSBaseballweb Member since 2003
Do I think that the best players were drafted, not necessarily. There are lots of other factors that go into drafting a player, as Big said, it's a **** shoot and sometimes there is no rhyme or reason.

FrankF, I do believe, posted this a while ago, good info. A must read for everyone.

http://www.probaseballtryouts.com/scouting.htm

We sometimes look at a player and think he is a wonderful prospect, but the professionals may not see it that way, or vice versa.
Last edited by TPM
FungoFungoHighly Regarded and Beloved Old Timer
CADad,
Describe "best" laugh

I think you bring up a very good point but I think you know the answer by your comment.
quote:
You can say all you want about talent and projectability but I've got to wonder when the evidence is this overwhelming.
. In my opinion scouts normally tend to have tunnel vision and see past (or through) stats, W-L records, and such and don’t get overwhelmed with the “evidence” you provide. BUT...Then on the other side a player is “projected” by BA to be a high pick and he slides off the board because he has a bad season or his stats drop????? Projecting and drafting might be fun to talk about but we all know we will never understand the complete process. You mention signability ...a topic in itself! While I'm sure signability is an obstacle and prevents some players from being drafted, I think signability sometimes becomes a convenient scapegoat for the disillusioned parent and player.
Having said all that garbage, you can sit beside one scout get his opinion about a player, then turn around and ask the scout behind you and he will give you a different opinion...go figure. As we all know, scouting and drafting is not an exact science.
Fungo
D Dibble1,000+ posts
MLb scouts miss on players all the time, try drafting for talent not signability. Several projected high draft picks fell or did not get drafted at all because of concerns of signability and others with much lesser talent were drafted much higher than they should have because they would sign cheaply.

how many players were drafted because they were a cousin or son of a mlb player or scout this year?
Last edited by Dibble
D Dibble1,000+ posts
bbscout a number of players were not drafted not because they lacked talent, because they were unsignable, saying they were gonna attend college or were too good of student.

How many players signed to go to Stanford, Duke or Ivy league colleges get drafted, very few if they are way down the line, because they almost always go to college.

Kris Benson was bypassed in the draft out of HS, because he told people he was heading to Clemson, went 1st overal his junior year.
Benson could have been drafted in the 10 rd by the red sox, but he told them dont bother i want to attend college first.
O OldVaman500+ posts
From where I sit, there is truth to both sides.

When I covered A ball, I saw plenty of guys who hit .198 and moved up while guys who hit .298 got released. I saw free agents who performed better on games than draftees lose ground and then lose their spot. Why? Because the guy hitting .198 was learning to overcome one fatal flaw and the guy hitting .298 was playing to his potential.

It doesn't seem fair and. sometimes, it doesn't seem right. But if 5 guys from a New York-Penn League team make it to the major leagues, that was an incredibly successful team, even though it went 20-56. Meanwhile, 1 guy from the league championship team makes it.

Over-simplification? Perhaps. But closer to reality than most can possibly imagine.

I think we all can agree the draft is a terribly subjective process.It's all about age, size and learning curve, not necessarily about results.

In the end, both camps are right. Not many players are missed, because part is self-fulfilling prophecy and part the odds to begin with.

The only inevitable truth is that the truly athletic, talented AND hard-working player makes it. After that, anything goes.
D Dibble1,000+ posts
Tr I got a call right before this years draft saying so so wants to draft me. ( yes this really happen) Yes TR he was kidding

and I told him I had hired Scott Boras and we want 7 million major league contract plus the field renamed after me and a private jet to fly me to every game. They said they would get back to me on that one.
B bbscout1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by Dibble:
bbscout a number of players were not drafted not because they lacked talent, because they were unsignable, saying they were gonna attend college or were too good of student.

How many players signed to go to Stanford, Duke or Ivy league colleges get drafted, very few if they are way down the line, because they almost always go to college.

Kris Benson was bypassed in the draft out of HS, because he told people he was heading to Clemson, went 1st overal his junior year.
Benson could have been drafted in the 10 rd by the red sox, but he told them dont bother i want to attend college first.


So, you go to Stanford or Clemson and then you get drafted.....what is the difference? The players that end up in the big leagues are players that got drafted.....except for a handful. Not drafting some snot nosed kid because he wants a million dollars is not missing him. He goes to college and then he will get what he can get. The point is that all the big leaguers from the USA that are in the big leagues, with the exception of a handful, ALL GOT DRAFTED.
D Dibble1,000+ posts
bbscout,
I am sure you never tell any HS players that only 10 % of the minor leaguers ever play one day in the MLB. or 50 % of HS 1st rounders never reach the majors. Players drafted out of college earn more money than hs draft picks.

Remember Matt Harrington Offered 5.3 million, Matt White 10.2 million or Josh Hamilton 3.95 million. All supposely cant miss or best prospects ever

No one has a gun to the MLB scout head and says you have to pay this amount or else.

MLB would to a much better job scouting if they cut 1 million of their inflated mlb payroll and hire additional 15 scouts. I know of plenty of scouts that have 5 -10 states to cover plus they have them work pro coverage too
B bbscout1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by Dibble:
bbscout,
I am sure you never tell any HS players that only 10 % of the minor leaguers ever play one day in the MLB. or 50 % of HS 1st rounders never reach the majors. Players drafted out of college earn more money than hs draft picks.

Remember Matt Harrington Offered 5.3 million, Matt White 10.2 million or Josh Hamilton 3.95 million. All supposely cant miss or best prospects ever

No one has a gun to the MLB scout head and says you have to pay this amount or else.

MLB would to a much better job scouting if they cut 1 million of their inflated mlb payroll and hire additional 15 scouts. I know of plenty of scouts that have 5 -10 states to cover plus they have them work pro coverage too


Andy, Stay on the subject......the point is that the guys in the big leagues were drafted........period. Name the guys who were missed.

As far as scouting goes, don't argue about something that you know absolutely nothing about.
T Teacherman500+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by bbscout:
Dibble, start naming the players from the USA who are in the big leagues who were not drafted. See if you can come up with more than a handful. Name me the players that were missed.....by that I mean players that are major leaguers.Until they become major league players, they have not been missed.


I'm more on your side than not scout, but your logic doesn't hold.

If I'm not drafted and not given any opportunity I'll probably become an accountant or teacher, or lawyer or whatever I went to school for. Therefore, I'll never be a big leaguer.

Still doesn't prove I wouldn't have made it if given a chance.
TRhitTRhit10,000+ posts
Matters not what the career you need the "chance" but the "chance" is given based on your talentand "assumed ability" regardless of what sport career etc/.

You need to have enough talent /ability to pique the interest of a scout/head hunter/boss etc.

Life aint easy--Life aint fair--but that is the way it is--like it or but you can get what you work hard for
CM Coach May1,000+ posts
Do they try to get the best players? Yes. Do they miss on some players that should be drafted over others? Yes. The bottom line is that there is no way that they can make sure that the best possible players in every instance are drafted. There will always be kids that deserve to be drafted not drafted. And there will always be kids drafted that are not as good as kids that go undrafted. That is a fact.
B bbscout1,000+ posts
quote:
Originally posted by Teacherman:
quote:
Originally posted by bbscout:
Dibble, start naming the players from the USA who are in the big leagues who were not drafted. See if you can come up with more than a handful. Name me the players that were missed.....by that I mean players that are major leaguers.Until they become major league players, they have not been missed.


I'm more on your side than not scout, but your logic doesn't hold.

If I'm not drafted and not given any opportunity I'll probably become an accountant or teacher, or lawyer or whatever I went to school for. Therefore, I'll never be a big leaguer.

Still doesn't prove I wouldn't have made it if given a chance.


If you think you can play, there are many independent teams that you can try out for. If you can't make one of them, you can't play and will need to get a real job.
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