Draft Day Advice

Most clubs will not draft a player in the top ten rounds absent either a rock hard (gentleman's) agreement or a compelling reason (e.g., Mark Appel as a senior draftee). While each year a few top ten rounds aren't signed (Aiken, Bickford, etc), the penalty associated with a non-signing (the entire slotted amount is deemed used) is pretty severe. When a top ten rounder isn't signed, it's usually an indication of some kind of a breakdown in either internal club communications, advisor/club communications, or a late learned fact (usually health related).

 

There just aren't a lot of moving parts for the top ten; the club knows what it's max total is, knows [as best the parties can know] the players bottom line, tries to gauge the players true priorities, and acts. A miscalculation can be bad (although the compensatory pick for not signing a high draft pick does take the sting out of a potential miscalculation). The Astros lost three HS pitchers last draft because of this - two in the top ten, the other lower.

 

Outside the top ten, however, the calculus changes. Here there are many more moving parts which can be assessed with the luxury of time (all needs to be known by the signing date, not by the draft date).

 

To me, most importantly, the amount which can be paid without penalty is a number in constant fluctuation until every top ten is signed. So, for example, a HS player may state his number, and the club will not know if it can pay that number for weeks following the draft. On the other side of the coin are the HS players who for whatever reason (college no matter what, bad advice as to what he is actually worth, deemed not ready yet to be on his own, injured too close to the draft to evaluate the extent of the injury) price or otherwise remove themselves from the market and will not be drafted. 

 

Of course, during the pre-draft scouting process, scouts collect many more names then can be drafted. It seems that many parents and players feel that being scouted = going to be drafted. For top ten rounders, cross-checkers and above will have seen the player; for the rest it's highly probable that ONLY the area scout has seen the player. For those who ONLY the area scout has seen, there is a battle royale in the draft room to get your boy picked over another area scout's boy. So, one area scout may feel that his boy will be drafted (and communicate this to the player and parents in the home visit), another area scout feels the exact same about his kid, but the club only needs one slow footed monster DH. Thus, what may appear as disingenuous to the undrafted player ("I was told I'd be drafted but wasn't"), wasn't at all personal to the club ("how many slow footed dh's do we really need").

 

In the 2010 draft, my S was called by half dozen clubs and told he was next up on their list. He's still waiting for ine of those clubs to tell him to report.

I tend to agree with you CD. And I think MLB has diminished leverage even more with the shorter cutoff date for signing and the compensation picks for the next year if the high picks don't sign. 

 

Having gone through this with 2 sons multiple times each (plus their friends and teammates) I would say the one piece of advice that seems to catch most people off guard is when they ar told to be ready in Round X by Team Y. I know FAR more kids who were let down on that 'promise' than were not.

 

Do your best to roll with it. It isn't an integrity thing on scouts' part. Things change on draft day based on what's going on and it isn't personal if it doesn't happen the way you were led to believe.

 

Just roll with it. 

 

 

First off, my oldest son was not drafted.  It would have been nice, but not in the cards and the timing was not right (injury junior year).  I'm not sure if it would have been an attractive path for him even though he loves the game.

 

But, we know many folks that have been drafted or will be considered for future drafts.  CDs and JBB advice is excellent.  Truthfully, I don't know one person who went in a round earlier than they were told.  Anytime a club gives you a range that seems to be a best case scenario for the player.  For the vast majority of players it is a let down from what they were told.  If you think college coaches are the masters of ambiguity and mis-remembering then I think professional scouts (from what I'm told) are the true masters. 

 

A couple years ago, one of my son's high school friends was told he would be a top ten round pick out of high school.  He kept checking his cell phone (in the dugout)  right in the middle of the state playoff game.  He had a terrible day, and you could just see the disappointment in his body language.  I left really bad for the young man as he would end up going much, much later in the draft.  I've seen this scenario play out numerous times for high schoolers and college players.  It is essentially out of your control (roll with it!), and the best you can hope for is to be treated fairly for the round you are drafted.  Priceless advice IMHO.

I've seen so many scouts'/team execs' pre-draft smiles turn to steely eyes (or worse) from the moment the drafting of the player takes place.

 

At any point in the process, pre or post-draft, woe be to the player/parent who loses sight of the fact that from the front office's perspective, baseball is nothing but a business.

My son went un-drafted. I guess we would have wanted a clearer idea if we should expect a call or not. Not that we wanted a rock solid guarantee, just a " good chance" instead of advisor telling me all these were calling about my son. I've been told wrong time, wrong team as they didn't have much bonus money to spend period. I know there no certainties, I would have really appreciated understanding if he should really expect anything rather than stick around and wait for possible calls. When I speak about this, it is absolutely from his viewpoint and for his benefit...this is a business, not a friends-ness. We gave a number and I was told it was fair but i really believe team A had zero intention of ever drafting him anywhere near that value. We were told teams would chop their way down and augment the $ and pay over slot....nope. Afterwards, we were told he was out area guy's #1 over the team's #1. He got drafted and son didn't and both were local kids in same area for scout. At the end of the day, I believe teams think my kid is a max effort guy who won't hold up. Let's see what happens over the next three years, I hope he has a chance to alter that impression and chase his dream in pro baseball.

The draft is a happy day for a few and a big disappointment for most. The new CBA has changed the way organizations draft.  First couple rounds is all about talent provided the player is agreeable to the deal.  Rounds 5-10, even some earlier selections, are simply part of the organizations financial plan. 

 

Often we see 1st round talent slip to the late rounds or not drafted at all.  The actual signing period clears up some of the strategy used by MLB clubs.  You will see players drafted early signing well below the minimum and others drafted much later getting a lot more.

 

Before the new CBA, we would see PG All Americans like Dillon Betances and Dextor Fowler, get picked after the first 10 rounds and still get late 1st rd money. Also guys like Kris Bryant from nothing to being one of the first picks out of college these days.

Good post.  

For most players its about the money and wanting to get as much as you can so if your son wasn't drafted and he indicated he may be interested, you are being told that you most likely were not worth what you wanted. I know that from own own experience in HS.  That means, go to school, get better.  

That's why it is so much easier to draft a college player, IMO.  Not one scout asked son what he wanted to sign, much different scenario than in HS. It was pretty understood he was going pro, and a call came in about 15 minutes before the pick, will you sign for XYZ, yes or no.

 

Leverage is what helps in determining the players worth. Who is worth more, the guy with the 90% scholarship to the big D1 or the guy going to JUCO?  That is why it is so important to do well in school.  

 

I believe that when a scout or cross checker comes to your home to talk to you and your son, there should be complete honesty of the intentions. Telling a scout you are going to sign, then haggling later hurts that scout more than it does you. While I know some of them are not really honest, all of the scouts we met in HS were honest and open and we understood the process as much as one could at the time, with help.   We had talked to two agents, one said let them think that you will sign, the other said, your son is not ready to play pro ball and a graduate drafted out of Clemson University.

The first guy is not around anymore, the second has pretty high profile pitchers as clients, one a Detroit Tiger, one a SF Giant.   We went with the second guy. 

 

FWIW, sons drafting scout out of HS he never met.

The advisor who tells you that you aren't ready to play pro ball or that you aren't good enough for the demands you are making is probably the one you want to keep around. It's also the least likely one you want to listen to. Then again, most good advice isn't fun to hear...

My son was drafted just before the last CBA so I don't know how relevant his situation would be in todays draft environment however this is what he experienced.

 

Jerseyson had a number of in home visits and just about every team ended up asking what it would take to sign.  Early on they all seemed to accept the "fair amount for the round drafted" posturing however as things got closer to draft day they wanted a number.  At this point he/we knew it was a business discussion so he was upfront with the teams on what it would take to pass up his college commitment.  This led to what we felt were some very realistic conversations with teams (and our family),by the time the draft came around he pretty much knew that if he wasn't drafted in the first two round then there was a good chance it wasn’t going to happen.  

 

It turned out he wasn't drafted on the first day so he pretty much was at peace with it and was mentally prepared to head off to his "dream school".  As it turned out he was taken in the 20th round by a team he had never talked to...quite frankly we were a bit surprised he was drafted however we learned this was a tactic that many small market teams used to pick up “sign-ability” players.  Thankfully this was before the current slotting system was put in place and teams had a lot more leeway…at the end of the day he ended up signing at the deadline. As PGSTAFF mentioned, it turned out he wasn't alone, there were quite a few guys that signed for much more than the normal value of the rounds they were taken.

 

While much has changed, I'm still in the camp that if a HS player expects a significant number to sign they should be upfront about it, this approach made it much less stressful for my son. The key is to know what you would really be willing to sign for and not just throw out a number...make no bones about it, this is a business transaction and it comes down to making the “budget” work for both parties.

You also have to be honest about the number. If you say you will sign for $1 million and then panic and sign for $400k in the 8th round, you've lied to the scouts (who don't really care), your college coach who accepted your commitment (this matters some), and most importantly, yourself. Because in a year (at most) you will be wondering if you should have held out.

 

The reality is that a hell of a lot changes when that check is placed in front of you for $500k when you wanted $800k. Are you going to walk away from that kind of money? Not many 18 year olds have the fortitude to do so.

Suppose you did compromise your number by accepting 400k instead of your preferred 800k?  So what?  How many people in life get the chance to collect one check for 400k?  If pro ball does not work out in a number of years, go back to college then.  Baseball is a now proposition.  Yes you can postpone baseball things until after college but there is no guarantee there will be the same interest then.  You can indeed guarantee that you can go to college in the future however.

Leverage is what helps in determining the players worth. Who is worth more, the guy with the 90% scholarship to the big D1 or the guy going to JUCO?  That is why it is so important to do well in school.  

 

What about the high school player that really just wants to play pro ball and plans to go the JUCO route to get him a second chance a year later if he does not get drafted out of high school?  Is he giving up too much leverage by saying he will go to a JUCO?  Should he be committing to a good D1, just for the leverage he could get?  

 

-This assumes that the player has the talent to get drafted in the top 10 rounds and the grades to get into a D1 school.  

Son had interest from teams, area scouts, had great pre-draft workouts and workouts with a crosschecker  and was given rounds and $ ranges and entered in the Draft Tracker.. 

He and we were flattered to be considered,

however we saw the trend in the draft and a lot of highly ranked HS kids fell very far to the 30's rounds.

Son was not drafted.

He did get a call from one team saying the fact he is a young senior and will be 17 all this summer was a factor in deciding (young to be on his own away from home).

They like that he will be 20 years old coming out of junior year at college as many HS kids are about that age (19/20) now.

He said they will be following him closely and is invited to their summer workout.

 

We appreciated the call, information and perspective. 

 

Of course winning the state championship this past weekend took son's mind off it.

CD - That's another good perspective that I also largely agree with. 

 

But here is another one - unless you're a pretty high pick out of HS you have perhaps an increased likelihood of playing longer if you go to college (3-4 years) and then get re-drafted to play another 1-?? years  That is, if playing as long as you can is a primary goal. 

 

Kids who sign out of HS but don't progress somewhat quickly are out of baseball somewhat quickly too. Of course, that also makes it easier to go back to college at a relatively young age too!!

 

All kinds of complex variables in this decision!!

There's nothing WRONG per se, it's just that you should know what you will / will not sign for and mostly stick to it, and these demands/requests should be reasonable and rooted in logic, like TPM has talked about.

Exactly.  I will say it again, it is very difficult, being that young makes it even more difficult.  

Why would a player give up a solid commitment to go to one year of JUCO where he most likely would not raise his chances for a better draft spot?  

Years ago they used to have draft and follow, you were drafted by a team and had a certain date before the next draft to commit. This had a lot to do with high drafted HS players wanting more money. I believe that Matt Latos did that before he signed with the Padres. His folks also thought he needed one year to grow up.

MLB doesnt do it anymore. One year of JUCO will not improve a players draft spot.  

 

But you could do some homework and see how many one year JUCO players were drafterd in the first 10 rounds.

 

Leverage is using what you have to gain something that you want. If yo have nothing to bargain with, they will beat you everytime.

I agree, if you want 400K and they think that you are worth that, they will give it to you.  But they will not have to give you the money you want to go to school. After taxes, paying an agent, if you have one, then what do you do after 5-6 years of making no money and having no skill but baseball after they let you go?  Telling people what you want rather than what you are worth,  means you are just testing the waters, and they will not waste a pick on you to do that. Or they might, maybe in the 20+ rounds. 

 

Just want to let you guys know that when son came back to Jupiter his first season (he was tired from over a 100 innings and he needed rest and therapy) his roommate was a newly drafted HS player from Arizona. His day included getting up at 6 to be at field for breakfast, workouts and practice until the GCL began and back to the hotel by 1 or 2.   A few weeks later they were into their rookie season, playing in the same backfields he did for practice.  

He was so miserable and son felt so badly for him.

Keep in mind that a bonus is basically a 6-7 yr contract. If you choose, on your own,  to leave baseball then a pro-rata portion of the bonus must be paid back. As a minor league player, you may be paid a gross $1,100/mo for those months that you play baseball. Your bonus will often have to be used to supplement your $600/700/800 net check.

Some of the math came into focus recently and seems to make the economics of pro ball (just economics, not the daily life) a little more appealing.  For arguments sake, say a later round high school pitcher, say 15th, getting $400K bonus and $100K scholarship money versus going high D1 with a 50% scholarship.  Next assumption would be what high D1 - heaven forbid you are talking about Vanderbilt tuition.  For argument sake, let's say a state university with a reasonable $30K cost.  Kid or parents are still going to have to come up with $15K each year assuming the scholarship level does not get cut, especially if you actually stick around for 4 years and graduate - 4th year probably cut to 25% so another $7.5K out of pocket.  Compare this to 4 years in MiLB.  $400K bonus turns into $200K net cash - stash $100K and supplement each of the next 4 years with $25K (after tax cash).  Wash out after 4 years (released) and start tapping scholarship monies.  Looks like the pro route is decent on economics and parents get to keep from paying over $65K in college costs not covered.  Realize $400K is sizeable but also would not think 3 years at 50% is not considered "good" except for a select few pitchers that may get a little higher (if you are offered 100% than perhaps you draft potential would be a little higher and the math might still point towards going pro).  I guess it all depends on how big that first check is and whether the kid can get some level of enjoyment in MiLB given that less than stellar lifestyle.

We did an awful lot of calculatin for our older son in particular out of HS and but for a select handful, the economics of the decision doesn't work out all that often in favor of the player to go pro at that point.

 

Oh - you know your son will go back to school?  Sure, but he would be the exception according to most numbers I've seen.  Odds are far greater in his favor for finishing school if he gets 3/4 of it done in the 3 years after HS. 

if you actually stick around for 4 years and graduate - 4th year probably cut to 25% so another $7.5K out of pocket.

 

Where did you get that idea from?  I'm sure it happens but I can tell you in both of our sons cases it absolutely did not. in fact I will tell you that I know quite a few players who were offered (and some took) a raise to come back for senior year all the way up to 100%.  Let's be careful here not to throw things out like this off the tops of our heads. Too often, they are incorrect and mislead. 

I should have left out the cut in scholarship - was tryinhg a little too hard to make the math work in favor of pro.  My main point is that a "good" scholarship is only 50% to begin with and so saying "get your education paid for first" is a little misleading for the majority of kids - maybe "get half your education paid for" would be closer to the truth.  My math was focused on partial scholarship, and the college out of pocket costs to make up the difference, compared to a decent bonus and decent scholarship plan.  Saw on another thread where the scholarship plan was negotiable and one kid got 100% cost of attendance for 4 years - that alone was more valuable than than the original college scholarship that was less than 100% and unguaranteed at that.  2017 has had no hint of injury and I guess I just worry that something is going to happen - would rather him cash the check before it does.

 

Aslo seen lots of talk on this board about reducing senior scholarships to make room for incoming freshman - figured it was decent information as several posters mentioned it.  Didn't mean to mislead anyone.  Thanks for keeping the discussion as accurate as possible.

I read over your post a few times.  I am not sure I am getting what you said.

 

I remember quite a few years ago, there was a player here who was drafted out of HS.  cant remember what he got but he squandered away every penny.  17,18 year olds are not mature and disciplined enough to not spend. My son has an advisor, he calls him on every thing he needs, and its either yes or no and lets see how we can make this work.  He does a good job of not using his principle, letting him spend minimally but can live  abit as well. I dont think you get that appreciation until you have worked, and learning how to live on little in milb prepared him well for adulthood.

 

Mom and Dad are not going to stop junior from going to the mall.

I really do appreciate everyone's comments here.  As for my closing comment above, I was trying to seperate the math of college vs pro from the actual life experience between the two.  My thought was - the bigger the check, the more cushion you have if you mess up a little - if you only get a $200K bonus, you basically have no money to put away in my example.  Also, whether an 18 year old kid would thrive in the MiLB environment is a different discussion and one that needs to be had until the bonus gets really big (at some amount mom/dad can move with him).  Some kids would actually enjoy taking long bus rides and eating PBJ as long as they got to play.  On the other end, there are probably kids that would suffer life long setbacks if they went this route - something money cannot fix.  I was trying to lay out just economics and not reality - sounds like it was not warmly received.  Regardless, I did enjoy the discussion.  Good luck to everyone.

You're doing fine. It's a good discussion to have.

2017....no, it is a good discussion But then IMO you need to try to quantify what the non-$$$ items may be worth.  

 

I've been told by many that less than 10% use MLB scholarship funds so if you are going to use that $100K, may want to discount it by some %. Maybe 95% discount, maybe 50% but something.  if player gets permanently hurt, many/any colleges keep paying for same part of education. What about academics? Add that to your 50% so maybe the scholarship is 70, 75% etc 

 

then returning to non-$$$ items, what is college experience with your age group worth?  Future spouse? Life long friends? Opportunity to go to CWS? maturity level. College baseball experience. I could go on and on 

 

To each family, the amount a young man may willing to give up To go pro Directly out of HS is different.  If I told you what my son determined his number to be (with the help of his advisors), you would think he was crazy but I assure you it was well thought out. My son definitely wants to play pro baseball but more so wants to do it after 3 or so years of college. I hopes it works out for him but nothing is guaranteed.

"Future spouse?"

Ah - I know at least one college coach that uses that line quite effectively and routinely.

So you've heard same story that I've had. Don't know if its a wives tale or not. But the premise by the coach may be a good one. 

I think it is a great point about the percentage that use the scholarship money.  

 

When people say, "My son can go to college anytime."  I respond with, "Yes, but your son will never again be an 18 year old college freshman."  Those of us who went to college understand the experience we had at 18 - 21 versus those students we knew who were 25+.  

 

My son will not have to make this decision as his ability doesn't put him in the position, but if he did, I would counsel him to go to college.  Even if the bonus is huge (800K+), playing the percentages, he would never see a MLB paycheck and never use the MLB scholarship money.  At that point, what would his earning potential be?  Lately, I've seen college lists about mid-career earning potential.  It would be interesting to see some data on drafted and signed baseball players vs. university graduate.  I'll bet it would open some eyes.

Just because I came back with some questions doesnt mean its a good discussion.

Look this is a personal decision.  Money makes the decision alot easier

to live with. I know 400k would not have been acceptable Web in HS but it was as a college player. I know you are trying to make the numbets work.  But there are real life scenerios you need to think about that do come up.

 

 

Fair point,  for the majority of our players this is probably the right call.  The "college experience" question was one that I always had in the back of my mind when jerseyson passed up college.  We've talked about it quite a bit, especially now that he's done with baseball.

 

No doubt he missed out on going to the CWS and the other college activities however he says he  has no regrets.  While different, he had experiences in pro ball that most can only dream of.  Maybe his situation is unique however he also had his share of fun, learned how to take care of himself and built meaningful friendships (3 of his teammates were in his wedding).  Not so different than what I expect his college experience would have been.  The point being... in these types of situations, one size doesn't always fit all.

Focussing ONLY on the financial differences.

 

A 50% scholarship at a school like Vandy (top tier academic private school) is worth roughly 30k per year. It is not taxed. So a family needs to come up with an additional 30k per year. (Note this also: make sure the 50% includes room and board; many times the percentage the coach offers is bases ONLY on the tuition part of the equation.)  To satisfy the family contribution of 30k, requires roughly 45k of pre tax w-2 earnings. Assuming no inflation for the entire four year enrollment period means a family will need 180k in pretax earnings to get the player a degree and into proball after graduation (no meaningful bonus).

 

With the player signed after HS and pocketing all the remnant of his 400k bonus (let's say 200k), the player also has the MLB scholarship in hand. One original OP assumption was that the player would be released after four years. That assumption is not based in the facts known when the contract was signed. The original HS draft contract binds the player for six years. The only fair assumption is that the player plays his full six years and his career is then over by mutual decision (remember the player cannot just walk away early without (a) losing the MLB scholarship and (b) repaying (with after tax money) a prorated portion of the bonus).

 

Over the six year playing career, part of the bonus was assumed to be used every year. I think 25k per year was a bit much; but we'll use OPs original figure of supplemental support of 25k per year. Because the bonus money was needed, there was no possibility to invest that money safely and still protect the principal; therefore any interest earned on the balance was minuscule in the present interest rate environment. Once the player's six year career concluded his bonus money has been whittled down to a bit over 50k. (I think within the 25k per year supplemental support would be the vehicle purchased with the bonus money.)

 

To recap, the player now has 50k in the bank, his career is over, and he has the MLB scholarship, and he's 24 (we'll assume no obstacles to actually attending school like wife, kids, lack of desire).

 

Costs of attending a school like Vandy have now gone up 30% (5% a year for six years, ignoring compounding) and now cost roughly 75k per year (excuse me, I just passed out). So player (no longer a kid) needs to come up with 300k in cash to pay for four years.

 

MLB pays as follows: 60k per year taxable; but the amount requires that the player live in the cheapest way possible so he is living in a freshman dorm and eating on the meal plan (don't know where wife and kid will live, but he'll figure that out). If he wants to live in a more age appropriate environment, MLB will not pay for that. The 60k per year shrinks to roughly 40k after taxes. So, of the 300k cash needed, player has 210k (160 from MLB + 50k in bank), leaving him 90k in AFTER TAX dollars short (Let's say 140k in taxable w-2 wages.)

 

Comparing apples to apples by result: both players careers are over and both have degrees from Vandy. HS draftee needs 140k in taxable w-2 wages and has no bonus money left. College kid needs 180k in taxable w-2 wages to get there. The HS kids advantage is 40k in taxable money.

 

i didn't run the calculations with a state school with a 30k price tag. First, in my state this will probably just barely cover the costs today - certainly not in six years. Second, (and I'm a state university grad), there is a difference to some employers between a degree from Vandy and a degree from UT. But the economics are similar - the difference in purely finances are pretty small with a slight purely financial favor to the HS kid.

 

As we move further through the years, variables which we're keeping constant (and therefore ignoring for these calculations) make the results really suspect (e.g., will the player stay at 50% scholarship or transfer after year one of no playing time, will the costs really not increase over four years, will the player get drafted after three years, did the player actually stay on track to graduate after four years, does the HS kid have the motivation and skill to complete college, etc, etc.) I would say that based upon the OPs assumptions (with the minor change of the length of the HS player's career), the difference in economics is not a huge difference. 

 

If the economics for a 400k bonus is not really a determinative factor, we're back to the intangibles which push one way or the other.

Goosegg- outstanding analysis.  Are you a CPA by any chance?  If not, well done nonetheless.  I was going to say bean counter but then thought better of it as I didn't want to offend    

 

If I distill what your analysis concluded, a 400k bonus out of high school (assuming high school player retires and goes to college and graduates thereafter) is not much different than taking a 50% scholarship at a school like Vanderbilt and bypassing the bonus?

Again my attempts to make a point get me in trouble.  I wish I had not brought up the Vandy scholarship.  While this does help in the front end math argument (cost is really north of $60K today per website), a degree from Vanerbilt, or Stanford, etc. is truly an asset more valuable than your average State U (some are better than othes).  While I tried to make a pure math argument, I realize it cannot be done as there are just too many non-monetary variables.  If you are included to go the Vandy specifically for the education, then the discussion is quite different.

 

I had a good friend in college (State U) that was a few years older.  Not only did he thrive academically, he also had a pretty good time.  He realized (possible with some help from parents) that he was not ready for college coming out of high school.  He went into the Navy and "grew up".  I suspect one's first enlistment in the navy is kind of along the lines of MiLB. 

 

As jerseydad pointed out, the pro route is not only workable for some but can be a very fulfilling journey and shouldn't be viewed as a do or die situation where if one's MLB shot is denied your life is left in ruins.  I'm glad folks keep saying college is the better choice in almost all situations and explaining why.  Should improve the thought process of anyone having to make that decision.  After this beat down, I'm hoping the extra two dozen MPH don't show up in the next couple of years so we never have to go through this ourselves LOL.

It's not a beat down; you need to, and indeed accomplished, one type of analysis. There are many many ways to approach the decision (assuming a decision is on the table).  Each approach may yield a different result as a family orders its priorities. The only way to reach a fair decision is to look at the potential results (the known unknowns; leaving aside the unknown unknowns) and act accordingly.

 

From my perspective in life, a paycheck is only a source of irritation, never the deciding factor on whether I like the job. In the case of proball, the conditions of employment are so different from a regular job (e.g., the inability to change employers even if you like the career chosen, the inability to leave without severe economic penalty, the fact that you get paid for only half a year but spend for an entire year) that the conditions under which milb players labor need to be considered - indeed may even trump most other considerations.

 

TPM constantly points this out - and I believe she is right; unless you have a family member who has gone through the milb system, it's tough to really really understand the life of the player. What most see are the performance (game time) and that overwhelms what was sacrificed to get to game time (time, money, alternate opportunities).

 

It's a very personal decision highly dependent upon each player (how good, how smart, how ready, alternatives available, opportunity costs lost, do you want to hedge the results or okay to put so much on a lottery).

 

There is no black and white; it's fifty shades of grey.  

 

 

Part of the problem in my comments may be that I am throwing out a hypothetical situation which is then limited to just one component - money.  We/I are not having to make this decision nor will we likely ever have to make the decision so I am not wrapped up emotionally.  I think I've realized that for folks that have personally gone through this decision process that they do not take this discussion lightly - this is of great benefit for the rest of us that get to sit back and get educated and could be indispensible for those actually having to make the decision.  I agree with the paycheck being a source of irritation.  Above having my kid take a shot at living out his baseball dream is to get him to a place in life where he is happy.  I could see how a stint with MiLB at a yound age could be the worst thing for his long term happiness - and I can see the reverse - when I squint real hard.  In the end it appears that my simple math discussion has been put in its proper place as a small component of the decision with other life choices being the more important components by far.  If nothing else reading these posts have greatly reinforced that belief.  Thanks again.

^^^^

Congrats on your son's draft position.  4th round picks are given ample opportunity to climb the ladder.  Your son definitely has a real shot at it.  Best of luck!! 

In the economic-based posts above, Vandy and Stanford are used as examples of high cost of attendance even with 50% scholarship perhaps pointing towards (economically) taking the $$ in an MLB draft situation and running.

 

The truth is, those 2 schools along with some others, are the hardest kids to sign for MLB out of HS.  Those commitments tend to be stronger than most.  People who get into those two see a college experience and lifelong earning potential that are far greater than $500K, even $1M signing bonuses.

Congratulations to your son! JBB is correct, as a 4th round pick he will have many chances, a lot more than those signs out of HS.  Your post, IMO is why college becomes very important in the process.