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From the Associated Press yesterday:

"Among 1,082 players who were in a big league game last year after coming though the draft, 180 were first-round picks and 589 were selected during the first five rounds, according to the commissioner's office.  There were 204 from rounds six to 10, 102 from rounds 11-15 and 63 from rounds 16-20.  Just 74 were from rounds 21-30 and only 50 from rounds 31-50.

"Once unlimited, the draft was cut to 50 rounds in 1998 and to 40 rounds in 2012".

These numbers are posted every once in a while, so I thought I would give the update.

The draft this year at 5 rounds and in 2021 at 20 rounds should be chock full of talent with not many, if any, picks wasted.  

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To genuinely calculate the odds of being drafted and succeeding you need to know the number of MLB players who came through the draft. A considerable number were non American free agents.

But as you can see by the initial post’s numbers there’s a reason why players drafted in the top ten rounds receive bonus money. 

Last edited by RJM

Btw I think with less rounds the talent in those rounds will be more concentrated because there will be less deals. With only 5 guys you won't sign a senior to save money for an over slot deal but you need every pick for the best available talent which means players will go closer to slot value and no fillers are drafted.

Talented HS guys who would have gone over slot in the 6th round will now go for slot in the 4th or go to college if that is not enough.

So the math that guy drafted in the 7th round would have been missed is not quite correct because the draft is now more about upside, you don't draft that "gamer" with  a mature game and ability to play pro ball but not mlb to fill your minor league team and instead you take the higher upside player, you don't need to fill as many rosters anymore and instead just draft guys with mlb upside even if they are currently raw.

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