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I can't answer your question, but someone somewhere has this data, but not sure they read the hsbaseballweb.

 

Here is a link to a spreadsheet of the "MLB Holdouts" but goes only rounds 1-3:  https://docs.google.com/spread...kJ2OHNnMFN4Vnc#gid=7

 

In researching your question, I found 2 great articles.  One has data of players that decline the 1st draft, and the percent that went up or down in subsequent drafts, plus a lot of other data and examples of recently drafted players. 

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl...mlb&ymd=20130608

 

The other article had interesting data on the 2013 draft:

 

Pitching accounted for nearly 54 percent of the players taken in this draft, and right-handed pitchers were far and away the most popular selection (39 percent -- 475 of 1,216). Outfielders made up 15 percent (185 of 1,216) of the draftees, and 122 shortstops were selected over the three days.


Another interesting breakdown came by age. Fifty-six percent of the draftees (676 of 1,216) came from four-year universities, and 31 percent (383) came out of the high school ranks. Forty-nine percent (333 of 676) of the college draftees were juniors, and 42 percent (287) were fourth-year seniors.


Three traditional baseball hotbeds -- California, Texas and Florida -- combined for an amazing 39 percent of players drafted. California supplied nearly 18 percent of the draftees on its own, and after the top three states, only Georgia (3.9 percent) weighed in at more than 3.5 percent of the total.


That article can be found here:  http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?c_id=mlb&content_id=50080320&vkey=news_mlb&ymd=20130608


Good reading for a Thursday evening.


 

Years ago I asked a scout why there are 60 rounds (at that time) to the draft. He said the top twenty picks need teammates. A couple of years ago I read of the American draft eligible players 84% of MLB players come from the top ten rounds. 94% come from the top twenty rounds. With this kind of trend it's not as important to sign players drafted from rounds 21-40. Plus the MLB franchises have a cap on how much they can spend signing players. A huge contract for a first rounder may affect how many drafted players a team iscapable of signing. 

I am with RJM.  FWIW, most players after a certain round could at one time get good bonus money, but that is not done anymore. I actually know of a guy who got drafted very late and got good money and is still to this day a ML pitcher.

Now with the new collective bargainning agreement and draft spending things have changed bigtime. Also they cut down on the rounds, teams used to bail out after round 40.

Some teams do not need as many drafted players as others because they have less team rosters to fill. Those that don't want to sign the later players will offer a 1000 dollars perhaps hoping they will not sign. Would you have your son sign for that if he had a good chance to go back to finish his degree and help his team win a championship? Or HS player give up college for a 1000 dollars and a plane flight?  I wouldn't.  Teams can always fill in with free agents that will be released when the new guys sign or mature college seniors not drafted. A guy with pro experience is worth more to a team than someone who is a late pick and never played pro ball.

 

The truth is as a very late sign with no money, you will be sitting more than playing, or you will find yourself in what is called the complex leagues, played in the backfields of the spring training complexes along with the teams young latin players. 

Last edited by TPM
Originally Posted by Proud Praent:

Anybody know what percentage of drafted players who don't sign, roll the dice to hopefully get drafted higher actually do or don't get re-drafted??  

There are many HS players who get drafted later and head to college, or finish college to work on their stuff with the hopes of getting drafted again in a better spot.

 

We have a webster here whose son was drafted a few times, didn't sign until he was a senior, and is now a ML pitcher.

Last edited by TPM
Originally Posted by Proud Praent:

Anybody know what percentage of drafted players who don't sign, roll the dice to hopefully get drafted higher actually do or don't get re-drafted??  

Don't know the answer, but I can give you some details from our experience.

 

Our son was drafted in the 47th round as a HS senior.  Truth is he would have likely been drafted higher expect he made it clear unless there was life-changing money he would be going to college.  Still, a team drafted him and then offered him a lot of money, but not life-changing money.  He didn't sign...he went to college (Stanford).

 

After his junior year in college, he was drafted again...in the 21st round.  He was coming off an injury and had been pretty good, but not stellar and far less money than the first time was offered.  He gave what I thought was a reasonable number to the team that drafted him to sign...they never met it.  He went back to school (and to the CWS, which easily made it worthwhile).

 

As his senior year (a very good one) wound down, scouts began talking to him again.  I would say most of the 30 teams talked to him.  To his (and my) surprise, many...MANY...scouts asked him if he even wanted to play pro baseball.  They said, "Gee, you've been drafted twice and did not sign so we even wonder if you're interested?"  He told every one of them that he'd sign for $100 or even less...that he believed he could make it and it didn't matter to him what they paid him as a signing bonus.

 

It was kind of infuriating...to put it bluntly.  Even after he was not drafted on Day-1 (which he was told he would be by one team...this is not uncommon)...another team called him that evening and asked again, "If we draft you tomorrow will you even sign?"  I believe his response was not worthy of print here.  

 

They did not draft him.

 

But he was drafted yet again...in the 13th round.  Trying to be as impartial as I can be, we all thought that was a bit low.  He signed as soon as the CWS was over.  In general, college seniors have little leverage and don't get the same money as younger players in a similar draft position, but we all knew that going into his college senior year.


He rolled the dice twice.  I think it did in fact 'hurt' him in his college senior year draft at least some in terms of draft position.  I say that because there was so much doubt expressed by scouts about whether he'd even sign.  I have no idea how to translate this to any other player?  It coulda been local?  It coulda been unique to him?  Some scouts expressed that since he went to Stanford and stayed for his senior season that he was possibly more focused on the business world than on pro baseball...so maybe that was it?

 

Or maybe it just worked out the way it did because of his talent level at the time of each one of those drafts?  I don't know, but thats how it happened for us.  

Last edited by justbaseball
Originally Posted by Proud Praent:

Can of Corn: What happens to the others?  Doesn't sound right, they draft a kid an then won't sign him if he wants to be signed if in the bottom half?

 

The rest don't get offers and either go back to school or if they are seniors try out for Independent League teams or try to catch on as free agents somewhere.  They let you know real quick that this is a business and you have to be of value to them or you are gone.  They have until July 15 to sign their draft picks.

Originally Posted by can-o-corn:
Originally Posted by Proud Praent:

Can of Corn: What happens to the others?  Doesn't sound right, they draft a kid an then won't sign him if he wants to be signed if in the bottom half?

 

The rest don't get offers and either go back to school or if they are seniors try out for Independent League teams or try to catch on as free agents somewhere.  They let you know real quick that this is a business and you have to be of value to them or you are gone.  They have until July 15 to sign their draft picks.

I certainly could be wrong, but I believe if they draft you, they have to offer to sign you.  Might be for next to nothing and not in your best interests...but I have this memory of the first time our son was drafted, the scout and his boss showed up at our house with a minimal offer stating they "had to make an offer within xx days, but please don't sign it because we think we'll be offering more later in the summer."

 

And they did, but they didn't have too make a second offer.

Originally Posted by RJM:

Was the sign date moved from mid August to mid July so players wouldn't lose the entire short season holding out until the deadline?

Yes it was moved.

 

I believe that JBB is correct. If one is drafted they must make an offer within 14 (pretty sure) days of the draft unless that changed. The offer can be whatever they want it to be.

My understanding is it was moved up to help both MiLB and the NCAA.

Drafted players used to be able to go to summer school, show up on campus and then at the 11th hour, sign and go to MiLB leaving the NCAA coach with a hole and no way to recover in time. 

 

Conversely, if the player did this, as RJM points out, the player missed the entire (or most of) summer/rookie league thus hurting the MiLB team.  By moving up the date, it forces the draftees to make a choice earlier and let MiLB and the NCAA teams know if the player is "in or out".  

Not according Originally Posted by justbaseball:
Originally Posted by can-o-corn:
Originally Posted by Proud Praent:

Can of Corn: What happens to the others?  Doesn't sound right, they draft a kid an then won't sign him if he wants to be signed if in the bottom half?

 

The rest don't get offers and either go back to school or if they are seniors try out for Independent League teams or try to catch on as free agents somewhere.  They let you know real quick that this is a business and you have to be of value to them or you are gone.  They have until July 15 to sign their draft picks.

I certainly could be wrong, but I believe if they draft you, they have to offer to sign you.  Might be for next to nothing and not in your best interests...but I have this memory of the first time our son was drafted, the scout and his boss showed up at our house with a minimal offer stating they "had to make an offer within xx days, but please don't sign it because we think we'll be offering more later in the summer."

 

And they did, but they didn't have too make a second offer.

Not according to the scout we met with, like I said he said they were only going to sign 15 or so.  They have you sign a card allowing them to draft you again next year if they don't sign you, but any offer was at the discretion of the club and you are not guaranteed to get an offer, they are following players during the 5 or 6 weeks after the draft, some may get offers depending on how they do, some will not.  Maybe seniors are handled differently than underclassman with eligibility left.

Last edited by can-o-corn

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