PG,
Ok got ya, I thought that you were pointing out who got drafted in that round and made it to MLB from that draft year.
Check out your latest issue of BA, Look how many of each of the AL West clubs top 10 prospects are drafted out of HS. Also take note of the prospects or lack of from major D-1's.
The one guy I know who follows the history of the draft more than anyone is Allan Simpson. He just did a short article about the 1998 draft on pgcrosschecker.
Some interesting things from that article...
Sabathia, a first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians, and Teixeira, an unsigned ninth-round selection of the Boston Red Sox, were two of 1,445 players that were drafted that year. Of that total, 188—or 13.0 percent—have played Major League Baseball. Some like Sabathia, Teixeira, Matt Holliday (Rockies, seventh round) and Brad Lidge (Astros, first round) have excelled; many others have not.
Of the 188 future big leaguers that were products of that draft, 139 were among 833 players who signed at the time they drafted. That represents a success rate of 16.7 percent. Of the 611 players who did not sign, 49—or 8.0 percent—were subsequently re-drafted and still reached the big leagues. One selection was voided.
The since-abandoned draft-and-follow rule was a key draft strategy 10 years ago, and 48 such players were signed prior to the next year’s draft. Of the 48, eight (or 16.7 percent) became future big leaguers, including Chicago White Sox lefthander Mark Buehrle, a lowly 38th-rounder. Catcher Gerald Laird, a second-round pick of the Oakland A’s, signed for $1 million and in the process became the first draft-and-follow selection ever to sign a seven-figure deal.
Interestingly, the 16.7 percent success rate of 1998 draft picks signing at the time they were selected was identical to the rate of players signing as draft-and-follows.
By the time the dust had settled on the 1998 draft, the six largest package deals ever given to draft picks signing with the teams that drafted them had been doled out. No. 2 overall pick Mark Mulder received a $3.2 million bonus from the Oakland A’s; No. 3 pick Corey Patterson was given a $3.7 million bonus from the Chicago Cubs; and No. 5 pick J.D. Drew received a guaranteed $7 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals that included a $3 million bonus.
The Cardinals also agreed to a $3.4 million deal with Chad Hutchinson in the second round that included a $2.3 million bonus, and the New York Yankees forked over $3.9 million in guarantees, including a $2 million bonus, to third-rounder Drew Henson. Both those deals were made to steer the players away from potentially promising football careers as quarterbacks, but they ended up playing in the NFL anyway.
Though the baseball (and football) careers of both Hutchinson and Henson fizzled, Burrell, Mulder, Patterson and Drew all played in the big leagues in 2008. In all, 22 of the 30 first-rounders (or 73.3 percent) in 1998 reached the big leagues, and 14 were still active this season.
The 1998 draft played a prominent role for the Phillies as they won this year’s World Series. Not only was Burrell, who has since departed as a free agent, a prominent member of the team, but so were Lidge, the team’s ace closer who was acquired from Houston prior to the 2008 season, and valuable set-up man Ryan Madson, a ninth-round pick of the Phils in 1998.
On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Pirates endured their 16th straight losing season in 2008 and the 1998 draft was indicative of their continued lack of success. None of the first 14 players the Pirates drafted that year ever played in the big leagues, and the first player that did was someone they didn’t even sign.
With Burrell and numerous other prominent 1998 draft picks either involved in trades or declaring their free agency this year, only four players from the ’98 draft remain with their original teams—Buehrle, Madson, Detroit’s Brandon Inge and Milwaukee’s Bill Hall.
The list of players who did not sign that year is noteworthy, as well, as it includes Teixeira, American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (Orioles, 20th rounder) and former AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito (Rangers, 3rd round). Teixeira lasted until the ninth round of the 1989 draft, but almost certainly would have gone in the top half of the first round had he been more agreeable to signing rather than honoring his commitment to Georgia Tech.
Righthander Mark Prior, a supplemental first-round pick of the Yankees, also went unsigned in 1998. He elected to attend Vanderbilt as a freshman, before later transferring to Southern California. Though he eventually reached the big leagues, only three of the 10 highest unsigned picks that year ever did emerge as big leaguers. Righthander Ben Diggins, a supplemental first-round selection of the Cardinals who opted for the University of Arizona, and Zito, who chose to pitch at USC, were the others.
While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars.
For the whole article http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/
Here is how the first 10 picks of the 1998 draft went...
1 - Pat Burrell 1b U of Miami
2 - Mark Mulder LHP Michigan State
3 - Corey Patterson OF HS GA
4 - Jeff Austin RHP Stanford
5 - JD Drew OF St Paul/ Northern League
6 - Ryan Mills LHP Arizona State
7 - Austin Kearns OF HS KY
8 - Felipe Lopez SS HS FL
9 - Sean Burroughs 3B HS CA
10 - Carlos Pena 1b Northeastern
Among others available that year were...
CC Sabathia
Mark Teixeira
Matt Holliday
Barry Zito
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee (Cy Young this year)
This was 10 years ago so it has pretty well played itself out regarding draft results. Just goes to show what an inexact science scouting and the draft are.
Some interesting things from that article...
Sabathia, a first-round pick of the Cleveland Indians, and Teixeira, an unsigned ninth-round selection of the Boston Red Sox, were two of 1,445 players that were drafted that year. Of that total, 188—or 13.0 percent—have played Major League Baseball. Some like Sabathia, Teixeira, Matt Holliday (Rockies, seventh round) and Brad Lidge (Astros, first round) have excelled; many others have not.
Of the 188 future big leaguers that were products of that draft, 139 were among 833 players who signed at the time they drafted. That represents a success rate of 16.7 percent. Of the 611 players who did not sign, 49—or 8.0 percent—were subsequently re-drafted and still reached the big leagues. One selection was voided.
The since-abandoned draft-and-follow rule was a key draft strategy 10 years ago, and 48 such players were signed prior to the next year’s draft. Of the 48, eight (or 16.7 percent) became future big leaguers, including Chicago White Sox lefthander Mark Buehrle, a lowly 38th-rounder. Catcher Gerald Laird, a second-round pick of the Oakland A’s, signed for $1 million and in the process became the first draft-and-follow selection ever to sign a seven-figure deal.
Interestingly, the 16.7 percent success rate of 1998 draft picks signing at the time they were selected was identical to the rate of players signing as draft-and-follows.
By the time the dust had settled on the 1998 draft, the six largest package deals ever given to draft picks signing with the teams that drafted them had been doled out. No. 2 overall pick Mark Mulder received a $3.2 million bonus from the Oakland A’s; No. 3 pick Corey Patterson was given a $3.7 million bonus from the Chicago Cubs; and No. 5 pick J.D. Drew received a guaranteed $7 million deal from the St. Louis Cardinals that included a $3 million bonus.
The Cardinals also agreed to a $3.4 million deal with Chad Hutchinson in the second round that included a $2.3 million bonus, and the New York Yankees forked over $3.9 million in guarantees, including a $2 million bonus, to third-rounder Drew Henson. Both those deals were made to steer the players away from potentially promising football careers as quarterbacks, but they ended up playing in the NFL anyway.
Though the baseball (and football) careers of both Hutchinson and Henson fizzled, Burrell, Mulder, Patterson and Drew all played in the big leagues in 2008. In all, 22 of the 30 first-rounders (or 73.3 percent) in 1998 reached the big leagues, and 14 were still active this season.
The 1998 draft played a prominent role for the Phillies as they won this year’s World Series. Not only was Burrell, who has since departed as a free agent, a prominent member of the team, but so were Lidge, the team’s ace closer who was acquired from Houston prior to the 2008 season, and valuable set-up man Ryan Madson, a ninth-round pick of the Phils in 1998.
On the flip side, the Pittsburgh Pirates endured their 16th straight losing season in 2008 and the 1998 draft was indicative of their continued lack of success. None of the first 14 players the Pirates drafted that year ever played in the big leagues, and the first player that did was someone they didn’t even sign.
With Burrell and numerous other prominent 1998 draft picks either involved in trades or declaring their free agency this year, only four players from the ’98 draft remain with their original teams—Buehrle, Madson, Detroit’s Brandon Inge and Milwaukee’s Bill Hall.
The list of players who did not sign that year is noteworthy, as well, as it includes Teixeira, American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (Orioles, 20th rounder) and former AL Cy Young winner Barry Zito (Rangers, 3rd round). Teixeira lasted until the ninth round of the 1989 draft, but almost certainly would have gone in the top half of the first round had he been more agreeable to signing rather than honoring his commitment to Georgia Tech.
Righthander Mark Prior, a supplemental first-round pick of the Yankees, also went unsigned in 1998. He elected to attend Vanderbilt as a freshman, before later transferring to Southern California. Though he eventually reached the big leagues, only three of the 10 highest unsigned picks that year ever did emerge as big leaguers. Righthander Ben Diggins, a supplemental first-round selection of the Cardinals who opted for the University of Arizona, and Zito, who chose to pitch at USC, were the others.
While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars.
For the whole article http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/
Here is how the first 10 picks of the 1998 draft went...
1 - Pat Burrell 1b U of Miami
2 - Mark Mulder LHP Michigan State
3 - Corey Patterson OF HS GA
4 - Jeff Austin RHP Stanford
5 - JD Drew OF St Paul/ Northern League
6 - Ryan Mills LHP Arizona State
7 - Austin Kearns OF HS KY
8 - Felipe Lopez SS HS FL
9 - Sean Burroughs 3B HS CA
10 - Carlos Pena 1b Northeastern
Among others available that year were...
CC Sabathia
Mark Teixeira
Matt Holliday
Barry Zito
Mark Buehrle
Cliff Lee (Cy Young this year)
This was 10 years ago so it has pretty well played itself out regarding draft results. Just goes to show what an inexact science scouting and the draft are.
quote:While the ’98 draft has produced its share of big-league talent, it’s apparent that a number of teams would like a do-over as eight of 30 first-rounders never reached the big leagues and several low-round selections became stars.
PG - thanks for posting that.
I know a little about CC. For starters, he is a fine human being. It might seem obvious now that he would blossom into a great star, but it was far from obvious several years ago. Same for Cliff Lee. Early in his career, CC seemed like a guy who's physical conditioning was going to prevent him from excelling. He was continually going on the DL. Those problems are long gone and he is just one of those guys who is never going to have a svelte body-type when he pitches. Cliff Lee has also suffered from physical and to a lesser extent emotional issues.
One little anecdote I have about drafting comes from the New England Patriots and Mel Kiper. One pre-draft episode on ESPN someone was raving about how the Patriots were brilliant for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. Mel Kiper correctly noted that if they were in fact that bright, they would have drafted him in the first round
quote:One little anecdote I have about drafting comes from the New England Patriots and Mel Kiper. One pre-draft episode on ESPN someone was raving about how the Patriots were brilliant for drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round. Mel Kiper correctly noted that if they were in fact that bright, they would have drafted him in the first round
Just another Flyer pick
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/ makes it fairly easy to find out who made it to the MLB afer signing in a particular draft year. For the 2002 June draft, they have recorded 117/1482 MLB players. Thre are some players who made the show in 2008 but aren't in their list, and I suspect it is only really accurate through 2006, the last year of the Lahman database.
Anyway 117 players matches up well with the 139 that PGStaff quoted for the 1998 draft (eventual MLB players who signed out of that draft), considering that a few more players will be recorded in the next 4 years.
What is interesting to me is the fall off in the number of player who make it from the lower rounds.
Rounds......."made it"
1-10..........83/312
11-20.........25/300
21-30.........5/300
31-40.........3/300
41-50.........1/270
Some (40%, if 2002 is similar to 1998) of these players were drafted again, and perhaps the lower rounds contributed more to the group of player who signed later and made it to MLB. But it does appear that a player drafted in the lower 30 rounds will need a lot to go right in order to make the bigs.
Anyway 117 players matches up well with the 139 that PGStaff quoted for the 1998 draft (eventual MLB players who signed out of that draft), considering that a few more players will be recorded in the next 4 years.
What is interesting to me is the fall off in the number of player who make it from the lower rounds.
Rounds......."made it"
1-10..........83/312
11-20.........25/300
21-30.........5/300
31-40.........3/300
41-50.........1/270
Some (40%, if 2002 is similar to 1998) of these players were drafted again, and perhaps the lower rounds contributed more to the group of player who signed later and made it to MLB. But it does appear that a player drafted in the lower 30 rounds will need a lot to go right in order to make the bigs.
PG
Thanks for the earlier post with the 2002 picks. Even though you know these odds, when you actually look at them together like that, it is eye opening.
I'm going to print this out and show it to my players. Maybe they will work harder in school.
I'm also going to see if I can find what players made it in the rest of the rounds. That should be a big reality check. We tell them all the time but this visual should sink in.
Thanks for the earlier post with the 2002 picks. Even though you know these odds, when you actually look at them together like that, it is eye opening.
I'm going to print this out and show it to my players. Maybe they will work harder in school.
I'm also going to see if I can find what players made it in the rest of the rounds. That should be a big reality check. We tell them all the time but this visual should sink in.
The mathematics lead to the next question.
Other than organizational needs/depth, what individual factors do you think separate the ones who get to MLB and those that don't?
Remember, they all have tremendous baseball talent, but can anyone try to isolate some common denominator amongst MLB players that trigger a GM/organization to make the "call-up"?
Other than organizational needs/depth, what individual factors do you think separate the ones who get to MLB and those that don't?
Remember, they all have tremendous baseball talent, but can anyone try to isolate some common denominator amongst MLB players that trigger a GM/organization to make the "call-up"?
OLDSLUGGER,
That is an easy one and I think you would agree.
Other than the obvious investment in early round picks... everything else is based on production and to a certain extent makeup. The more production the less important the makeup.
Other than some of the early round investments, players make it by producing at the lower levels. Sometimes one level at a time. "Tools" become secondary, in regards to making it to the top, once the player enters the system.
Then of course there is "need" at the MLB level and there is also a certain amount of luck involved (being in the right place at the right time).
That is an easy one and I think you would agree.
Other than the obvious investment in early round picks... everything else is based on production and to a certain extent makeup. The more production the less important the makeup.
Other than some of the early round investments, players make it by producing at the lower levels. Sometimes one level at a time. "Tools" become secondary, in regards to making it to the top, once the player enters the system.
Then of course there is "need" at the MLB level and there is also a certain amount of luck involved (being in the right place at the right time).
