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I meant that kids drafted between the 30-40 rounds, do they usually know that they are going to be drafted like the kids say in 10th round where there are usually questions of whether or not they'll accept a certain amount of money or if they are likely to accept the pick etc? My kid no doubt will continue to develop in college until after his 3rd year to hopefully be in the top 15 rounds. Just wanted to know if he might be surprised this year without having previously being contacted by a scout, one on one. In other words are the 30-40th round picks just kind of "filler rounds" since there is signing money being offered?

Ok thanks. There were a good many scouts through our season specifically watching a good many of our position players even when my son was pitching. Once, at a game, I asked one of the scouts did he by chance have a velocity on the left pitching(my son) and he said he was 88-91 with a lot of 88s and a handful of 91s. He didnt receive any questionnaires this year but led the state in K/9, K/Bb as a freshman. Just wanted to know if he might have a chance to hear his name called next week just to say he had his name called as he continues to get better in college. 

One of my buddies step-son is a LHP 88-91 and did go in the 25th last year and did not sign. He previously had workouts with 2 organizations prior to the draft. He is expected to be drafted again this year after another great season at JUCO to deter him from attending a SEC program.

One disclaimer, the kids uncle is a 14yr NL pitching veteran, so there is lineage and connections in baseball.

Questionnaires are cheap and easy to give out. Scouts "overgive" rather then "undergive."

While not required to be given before a kid is drafted, it would be scout malpractice to not give one. Of particular interest is health history- a topic on each questionnaire.

I disagree with TPM on any set round ending negotiation. Every case is different (I know a kid who wasn't drafted who signed as a FA for a six figure bonus after a great summer performance). Generally, TPM is correct; but unique situtations occur.

In your son's case (who has the threshold velo needed), he cant control the draft, but can have a great summer season and improve his chances for both a college and draft slot next year.

I can say that barring an injury, character issues, or the yips, he will get a chance as he matures.

TPM's advice is spot on. He needs that education. Unless he can develop to sit 93, 88-91 LHPs litter the low minors. Most of those guys won't even see AA (and it may ne four years to get there). (Yes, I know there are exceptions. But, Never think of your kid's baseball skills as outside the middle of the professional bell curve - at best.)

Goosegg posted:

Questionnaires are cheap and easy to give out. Scouts "overgive" rather then "undergive."

While not required to be given before a kid is drafted, it would be scout malpractice to not give one. Of particular interest is health history- a topic on each questionnaire.

I disagree with TPM on any set round ending negotiation. Every case is different (I know a kid who wasn't drafted who signed as a FA for a six figure bonus after a great summer performance). Generally, TPM is correct; but unique situtations occur.

In your son's case (who has the threshold velo needed), he cant control the draft, but can have a great summer season and improve his chances for both a college and draft slot next year.

I can say that barring an injury, character issues, or the yips, he will get a chance as he matures.

TPM's advice is spot on. He needs that education. Unless he can develop to sit 93, 88-91 LHPs litter the low minors. Most of those guys won't even see AA (and it may ne four years to get there). (Yes, I know there are exceptions. But, Never think of your kid's baseball skills as outside the middle of the professional bell curve - at best.)

He/We've definitely prioritized college over pro ball particularly this early as he's only a rising JUCO sophomore. His head coach who is a former major league catcher projects my son who is 6'1/205 at 91-93 by the end of his junior year. Was just wondering if it was possible that my son might be "surprised" on the last day of the draft next Wed going in say a late round 35 or so as a result of frequently being on the mound while our position players were being scouted as he sat 88-91 this year as a freshman without having been given a questionnaire to fill out. So I guess if he was truly a draft prospect in any round he would have at least been given a questionnaire. 

He's up in the Valley League this summer. He's already got a lot of innings on him as he was a starter this spring so he's a reliever this summer.

He's in a good place. Developing. Makes mostly A's in school. Led his state JUCOs in K's/BB's, 3rd in state K's/9. 1.1 WHIP. ERA was a little high at 3.60. 

"So what does a first year JUCO player have to negotiate with, one more year of JUCO?"

In the hierarchy of baseball draft leverage (and assuming all other things are equal): (1) High school seniors, (2) JUCO first year players, (3) JUCO second year players, (4) College juniors, (5) College seniors. 

It's clear that the younger the more leverage - simply because there are baseball options besides proball (as demonstrated by the fact that seniors are so discounted). (The critical caveat is all other things being equal - which is the only way to analyze the general question by assuming away otherwise critical variables.)  Thus a player who is 18 will have more leverage then the same player at 19, etc.

HS players have more leverage only if they have something to negotiate. A player with a strong commitment to a top P5 has leverage but there are still more college players taken each year in the draft than HS players. 

A player that only has youth to negotiate won't come out on the receiving end but the player with a strong scholarship commitment to, lets say UF will. Brady Singer gave up a lot of money and headed off to school. He had big time leverage and will get more this draft and 3 years of college and not start in low rookie ball.

 

 

A player drafted in the 30’s is considered nothing more than Single A roster filler. Anyone drafted that late should stay in school if it’s an option. I’ve heard of players drafted in the 30’s not even being contacted by the MLB franchise because the short season roster was already filled with earlier picks.

84% of American MLBers come from rounds 1-10. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. 6% come from rounds 21-40.

RJM posted:

A player drafted in the 30’s is considered nothing more than Single A roster filler. Anyone drafted that late should stay in school if it’s an option. I’ve heard of players drafted in the 30’s not even being contacted by the MLB franchise because the short season roster was already filled with earlier picks.

84% of American MLBers come from rounds 1-10. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. 6% come from rounds 21-40.

I've learned so much from you guys in this thread. I appreciate it. 

I believe the club must make contact within a certain period after drafting a player. Otherwise, there are consequences on that club redrafting the kid in subsequent drafts. Unless the draftee is a college senior, that club takes a needless risk. Doesnt mean the kid will be signed- just that he acknowledges he was given a contract.

Whether SS rosters are full doesnt mean a club's rosters are full. Many players are assigned to complex ball. Many college pitchers are pitched out before the draft- one reason SS rosters are 35 and there is rapid turnover for pitchers.

 

As far as I am aware there is nothing in the first year player draft rules saying that a team MUST contact and make an offer, but they are now prohibited from drafting the player the following year.

Also, as far as being drafted in rounds 11-40, anything over 125k is subject to the bonus pool. 

Unless the player is a college senior with no eligibility left (a negotiating point as discussed previously) signing even for the max of 125k is ridiculous.

JMO

 

TPM posted:

As far as I am aware there is nothing in the first year player draft rules saying that a team MUST contact and make an offer, but they are now prohibited from drafting the player the following year.

Also, as far as being drafted in rounds 11-40, anything over 125k is subject to the bonus pool. 

Unless the player is a college senior with no eligibility left (a negotiating point as discussed previously) signing even for the max of 125k is ridiculous.

JMO

 

On your point..."unless the player..." 

Your saying because a kid being offered 125g or less is really just going to be a low minor league roster filler at best and should continue on getting his degree and continue to develop and improve in college? 

 

I will put it another way because you dont seem to really grasp what I am saying.

As far as the burning desire to be drafted by so many that really dont understand, be careful what you wish for.

As an 18, 19 year old you will be assigned to the complex leagues. You work everyday in the back fields, there are no spectators. Most of your teammates are young latins just coming to this country. They probably have had better training than a HS player and they are doing whatever they can to stay in this country. One year out of HS really doesnt prepare the player maturity wise for the experience. 

 

First, most draftees and FA - in retrospect - are "just roster fillers." As RJM pointed out, the chances of making it all the way drop dramatically the lower the selection. 

We can all speak generally, but each situation is unique. For example, a kid who isnt "college ready" looks at a bonus far differently then one who is; a kid going to Stanford on a full ride looks at it differently then a walkon JUCO player paying his own way.

In general, (IMO) a good education matters more then a low bonus; but I personally know a current MLB pitcher who was a HS 1st rounder who took a below slot bonus. he wasnt ready for college, but was ready for proball. Four years (including lots of struggle) later, he made it all the way. OTOH, I know  a HS 15th rounder who got a decent low six figure bonus (4.0 GPA with 1250 SAT) still fighting his way up 10 years later.

Every draftee has a different set of variables to weigh.

In general, however, TPM is correct (and she has her son's experiences upon which she bases her opinions). 

Ill add this: your son's stats show an ability to miss bats. That is a big deal.

To add to TPMs post about life in the minors, if you do a search for old forums, there are great discriptions. Nothing - and I mean nothing - a player has done in HS or 1st year of college can compare to proball (and the younger the player,  the less prepared).

It's no longer a game in proball - its a business. Unless a player takes care to prepare for life after baseball, life after baseball will be tougher then necessary.  And there will be, and is, a life after baseball (and life after baseball will last far far longer then life in baseball). For most, that means education.

TPM posted:

I will put it another way because you dont seem to really grasp what I am saying.

As far as the burning desire to be drafted by so many that really dont understand, be careful what you wish for.

As an 18, 19 year old you will be assigned to the complex leagues. You work everyday in the back fields, there are no spectators. Most of your teammates are young latins just coming to this country. They probably have had better training than a HS player and they are doing whatever they can to stay in this country. One year out of HS really doesnt prepare the player maturity wise for the experience. 

 

No, I get it. I appreciate everything you are telling me.  Last question, is their meaningful instruction on the backfields or would you say it's more crevaluation than teaching? That the same ballplayer would get more meaningful instruction at a good juco or D1?

Miss those nats in college first.

Sorry long gone are the days of a low sign out of HS getting to ML. Do your growing up playing the college game and working towards your degree. 

One thing that stands out in my mind. When son was drafted he ended back in Jupiter on rehab with a sprained ankle. His roommate was a drafted HS student who cried himself to sleep every night. He ended up having his contract null and void and headed back home. 

 

Goosegg posted:

First, most draftees and FA - in retrospect - are "just roster fillers." As RJM pointed out, the chances of making it all the way drop dramatically the lower the selection. 

We can all speak generally, but each situation is unique. For example, a kid who isnt "college ready" looks at a bonus far differently then one who is; a kid going to Stanford on a full ride looks at it differently then a walkon JUCO player paying his own way.

In general, (IMO) a good education matters more then a low bonus; but I personally know a current MLB pitcher who was a HS 1st rounder who took a below slot bonus. he wasnt ready for college, but was ready for proball. Four years (including lots of struggle) later, he made it all the way. OTOH, I know  a HS 15th rounder who got a decent low six figure bonus (4.0 GPA with 1250 SAT) still fighting his way up 10 years later.

Every draftee has a different set of variables to weigh.

In general, however, TPM is correct (and she has her son's experiences upon which she bases her opinions). 

Ill add this: your son's stats show an ability to miss bats. That is a big deal.

I appreciate your insight. He's a very good student and has more to develop in cleaning up his mechanics to wrench out a little more velo and developing command of his slider. Has 4 pitches. He's in a good spot. I finally "get" who the 30-40 round kids are. 

 

 

 

Dirk posted:
TPM posted:

I will put it another way because you dont seem to really grasp what I am saying.

As far as the burning desire to be drafted by so many that really dont understand, be careful what you wish for.

As an 18, 19 year old you will be assigned to the complex leagues. You work everyday in the back fields, there are no spectators. Most of your teammates are young latins just coming to this country. They probably have had better training than a HS player and they are doing whatever they can to stay in this country. One year out of HS really doesnt prepare the player maturity wise for the experience. 

 

No, I get it. I appreciate everything you are telling me.  Last question, is their meaningful instruction on the backfields or would you say it's more crevaluation than teaching? That the same ballplayer would get more meaningful instruction at a good juco or D1?

Depends on the organization, not all are created equal. Some develop players, some trade for players. The better instruction in pro ball is at the higher levels. The best being ML level. College coaches get paid more, so that is why former players are now joining the ranks of college coaches. 

A pitcher doesn't need 4 pitches.  He needs two solid pitches to get drafted.  A FB, an off speed and/or  breaking ball.  

"[I]s their meaningful instruction on the backfields or would you say it's more crevaluation than teaching? That the same ballplayer would get more meaningful instruction at a good juco or D1?"

As I watched some CWS games yesterday, I actually pondered this question.

There is no clear cut answer. I'll start from this: a great personal PC is better then any college or pro team coach. More personalized attention and personalized solutions.

That having been said, it's clear that proball has alot of experienced coaches everywhere in the system. But (and it's a big but), most players simply dont take advantage of that experience. Instead of getting into their respecitve coaches minds and emersing themselves in the coach's knowledge, players become "shy" (perceived peer pressure to do it all alone) and will not suck free knowledge from coach's mind. (Just saw TPMs response and I think it ties into my point. As players mature they are more confident internally and are not threatened to ask and learn. The MLB guys I know are information sponges - always asking and learning.)

What I have seen are players who are super prepared physically - most of the work is done with peers - but who havent put the same effort into the mental side - which requires work done with experienced teachers. (Roughly analogous to students not taking advantage of office hours with a prof.) And, ultimately, to make it all the way requires both physical and mental "perfection."

For example,  my son would have preferred to swap stories and lies with his teammates then waste a night picking experience from his pro PC. I dont think he was unique.

As to college coaches: some are good, others not so much.  There is no set rule.

Last edited by Goosegg

If professional teams are so good at development and rehab why do businesses like Driveline, Cressey, etc. do a better job at it than ML teams.  Why are ML teams using Driveline? And FWIW, why are there  a ton of college programs using their programs as well?

 

Last edited by TPM

This is a great thread.   

From talking to a lot of pros, people who are either in MiLB or just out of it, the opportunities to develop and improve are tremendous.   You are working on Baseball every single day without having to devote time to being in school.  The thing is, a lot of pro careers last just a few years.  Then it is back to the "real world".

A college degree isn't exactly what it used to be either, though, and certainly doesn't guarantee someone a job anymore. 

As with anything it really comes down to the individual, and that individual would really benefit from advisors in both Baseball & Academics who can help steer them in the right direction.

Lots of good advice in this thread.  The odds are not great for players drafted in Rounds 20-40.  I will say one thing that I suspect might not be popular around here:

I am not a fan of the high pitch counts in College Baseball.  If my kid was a pitcher, I might encourage him to go pro sooner rather than later.  I think, in general, the pros take better care of pitcher's arms than colleges.  There are exceptions with that...

I recently read an article on Jake Peavy. He was only on the Red Sox from mid season one year to mid season the next year. He said it was the most enjoyable year of his baseball career.

The 2013/14 Red Sox were a veteran team. They would go back to the hotel after games and sit around in a room breaking down the game and talk baseball into the night. He said it was a room of incredible baseball knowledge to tap. 

TPM posted:

I will put it another way because you dont seem to really grasp what I am saying.

As far as the burning desire to be drafted by so many that really dont understand, be careful what you wish for.

As an 18, 19 year old you will be assigned to the complex leagues. You work everyday in the back fields, there are no spectators. Most of your teammates are young latins just coming to this country. They probably have had better training than a HS player and they are doing whatever they can to stay in this country. One year out of HS really doesnt prepare the player maturity wise for the experience. 

 

Nailed it! Add in, they got nothing to lose and will do whatever it takes! 

Most domestic players are raised with manner's. A player better be ready to fight for a position, cutting lines are the norm and speaking or understanding Spanish will be helpful.

The stories about players heading to the Piggly Wiggly across town for Tuesday hotdog specials, because it's a cheap existence, are real. 

 

Dirk posted:
TPM posted:

I will put it another way because you dont seem to really grasp what I am saying.

As far as the burning desire to be drafted by so many that really dont understand, be careful what you wish for.

As an 18, 19 year old you will be assigned to the complex leagues. You work everyday in the back fields, there are no spectators. Most of your teammates are young latins just coming to this country. They probably have had better training than a HS player and they are doing whatever they can to stay in this country. One year out of HS really doesnt prepare the player maturity wise for the experience. 

 

No, I get it. I appreciate everything you are telling me.  Last question, is their meaningful instruction on the backfields or would you say it's more crevaluation than teaching? That the same ballplayer would get more meaningful instruction at a good juco or D1?

The answer to your first question is absolutely NO. For the most part, once you sign, it's on you, completely. Nobody will be there to save you. Nobody will be there to coddle you. Nobody will be there to iron out your mechanics, tweak your slider, show you a changeup grip & give you support when you get shelled. It's about results. This is big boy baseball now. You either get it done or they give you a plane ticket home.

Now, if you throw 100, they will show you the world, including every trick in the book on secondary pitches.

This is the thing about baseball that is hard to really grasp. You, as a player, thrive on making the other player fail. It is somewhat unique in that sense as opposed to say basketball where you can perform great & still lose but advance your career. In baseball, if I pitch, I succeed by getting you out. If I keep getting you out, you get released & I get promoted. Somebody loses on every transaction, every play. MILB is like a shark tank. It is survival evolution on steroids.

My experience is dated to the mid 90s, but yes. Very little to no real instruction, especially for late round roster fillers. If you are a first round pick or a big $$ signer, you will get a bunch of attention. If you are a 30th round LHP 88-91, you will be taking PFP (pitchers fielding practice)in a line of 96 other dudes on the back field at 8 Am, then maybe throw a pen that nobody watches & then they tell you to go run when they run out of other ideas. After that they may let you shag BP in the OF for 3 Hrs

Dirk, re-read Steve A's post! And TPM's! ...

You are on your own! This is experience speaking, from a pro player & mom (s) of former pro player...mine is battling injury setbacks...so his time is limited, but he is BATTLING! 

Teams will protect an "investment", give him instruc, etc...Middle to low round kids depend on themselves & either persevere or perish! They learn thru observation...It IS dog eat dog!

Steve A. posted:

My experience is dated to the mid 90s, but yes. Very little to no real instruction, especially for late round roster fillers. If you are a first round pick or a big $$ signer, you will get a bunch of attention. If you are a 30th round LHP 88-91, you will be taking PFP (pitchers fielding practice)in a line of 96 other dudes on the back field at 8 Am, then maybe throw a pen that nobody watches & then they tell you to go run when they run out of other ideas. After that they may let you shag BP in the OF for 3 Hrs

lol. Got it. Understand!

baseballmom posted:

Dirk, re-read Steve A's post! And TPM's! ...

You are on your own! This is experience speaking, from a pro player & mom (s) of former pro player...mine is battling injury setbacks...so his time is limited, but he is BATTLING! 

Teams will protect an "investment", give him instruc, etc...Middle to low round kids depend on themselves & either persevere or perish! They learn thru observation...It IS dog eat dog!

Absolutely correct Mom!

In addition, understand this. When you enter into the MILB world, you enter an environment completely different than college or HS baseball. There is no real team concept. The only one who really cares if the team wins is the Manager. The players are concerned with their individual performance. I went 3-4 with a dinger & we lost 9-4. Great day! I came in relief & punched out 5 in 2 scoreless & we lost 11-0, better day!

Everyone wants to be somewhere else (The Big Leagues). The players, the coaches, the trainer, the roving hitting instructor, the freakin mascot, everybody. It is hard core & cut throat. You are best friends one day & the next day you may never see your pal again, ever. You have no idea what your teams record is & you do not care. You learn to like rain as it occasionally gives you a break.

Your time is 100% consumed on planes, busses, fields, hotels, restaurants.  90% of guys who sign never see MLB & of the 10% who do, only the exceptional stick for an extended stay. You are against the best of the best every day. Everyone can play. When you threw a shutout in college / HS & the 3 hole hitter is the only one who raked you, the lineup is all 3 hole hitters now. Uh oh.

You have to develop your own routine to prepare. You will struggle & fail, repeatedly. The mentally strong find a way to grind through. Then, you have to be lucky & stay healthy. Other than all that, it's easy!

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