Skip to main content

Say you have a 6’4 LHP that commands 4 pitches and sits 96-97(Im using this for illustration), he desires to complete his degree in all 4 years, loves college. Why can’t an agent create a “market” for him for the first year draft to get him, not only get him drafted in the 1st round, but first round money? Not a $5,000 signing bonus. In other words, tell all 30 clubs for example, X amount of dollars are required to sign him and the club that needs a power lefty, that is basically MLB ready, he’s gonna need this much to sign with them. What am I missing with the process of drafting a 4th year guy? 

Last edited by Dirk
Original Post

Replies sorted oldest to newest

Interesting. Thank you for that example. After watching all the games yesterday and seeing all the new amazing college ballparks being built, seeing the effects of how free agency is appearing to be changing, it wouldn’t surprise me to see kids enjoying all four years in college particularly in the Power 5 conferences. 

Free agency has no effect on the draft. Players in the draft are years away from free agency. By the time they’re free agents the current CBO will have expired. If it’s not a decade long CBO two could expire. 

Players lose leverage when they stay in school until senior year. They lose anything to hold out with against signing. Typically when high picks don’t sign after junior year they either believe their stock will rise significantly (more money) or they don’t want to be in that organization. 

RJM posted:

Free agency has no effect on the draft. Players in the draft are years away from free agency. By the time they’re free agents the current CBO will have expired. If it’s not a decade long CBO two could expire. 

Players lose leverage when they stay in school until senior year. They lose anything to hold out with against signing. Typically when high picks don’t sign after junior year they either believe their stock will rise significantly (more money) or they don’t want to be in that organization. 

My broader point is if free agency is changing with such significance where the best of the best very well may never play 10 years in the league, the college degree becomes even more important. Couple that with the new bigger beautiful NCAA stadiums, maybe more players decide to use all their eligibility and agents/front office managements rethink the amateur draft. Already seeing 1st round picks choosing to go to college instead of going pro. Wonder if it’s the beginning of a trend. 

Dirk posted:
RJM posted:

Free agency has no effect on the draft. Players in the draft are years away from free agency. By the time they’re free agents the current CBO will have expired. If it’s not a decade long CBO two could expire. 

Players lose leverage when they stay in school until senior year. They lose anything to hold out with against signing. Typically when high picks don’t sign after junior year they either believe their stock will rise significantly (more money) or they don’t want to be in that organization. 

My broader point is if free agency is changing with such significance where the best of the best very well may never play 10 years in the league, the college degree becomes even more important. Couple that with the new bigger beautiful NCAA stadiums, maybe more players decide to use all their eligibility and agents/front office managements rethink the amateur draft. Already seeing 1st round picks choosing to go to college instead of going pro. Wonder if it’s the beginning of a trend. 

As great as some of the college stadiums are, none of them compare to Fenway, Wrigley, or even the majority of minor league stadiums. These guys are worried about getting signed to a major league organization, not worried about what the free agency landscape will be. Either way, the best of the best being out of the league in 10 years does not have anything to do with free agency.

Players want to get drafted, not stick around and enjoy their 4/5 years. Plus with the MLB scholarship packages, it just isn't happening. When a first rounder turns down money to go to college they are banking on taking their 3 years and moving up higher in the draft for even more money.

I know what you're saying, but older is not better in the baseball world. Rarely are you going to get a guy who is serious about playing baseball professionally turn down money to hang around with his buddies for another year. Don't forget the scholarships are not 100%. A lot of these guys, especially the out of staters, are often paying 60-75% of tuition. If anything I see more guys trying to get in younger than later. 

PABaseball posted:
Dirk posted:
RJM posted:

Free agency has no effect on the draft. Players in the draft are years away from free agency. By the time they’re free agents the current CBO will have expired. If it’s not a decade long CBO two could expire. 

Players lose leverage when they stay in school until senior year. They lose anything to hold out with against signing. Typically when high picks don’t sign after junior year they either believe their stock will rise significantly (more money) or they don’t want to be in that organization. 

My broader point is if free agency is changing with such significance where the best of the best very well may never play 10 years in the league, the college degree becomes even more important. Couple that with the new bigger beautiful NCAA stadiums, maybe more players decide to use all their eligibility and agents/front office managements rethink the amateur draft. Already seeing 1st round picks choosing to go to college instead of going pro. Wonder if it’s the beginning of a trend. 

As great as some of the college stadiums are, none of them compare to Fenway, Wrigley, or even the majority of minor league stadiums. These guys are worried about getting signed to a major league organization, not worried about what the free agency landscape will be. Either way, the best of the best being out of the league in 10 years does not have anything to do with free agency.

Players want to get drafted, not stick around and enjoy their 4/5 years. Plus with the MLB scholarship packages, it just isn't happening. When a first rounder turns down money to go to college they are banking on taking their 3 years and moving up higher in the draft for even more money.

I know what you're saying, but older is not better in the baseball world. Rarely are you going to get a guy who is serious about playing baseball professionally turn down money to hang around with his buddies for another year. Don't forget the scholarships are not 100%. A lot of these guys, especially the out of staters, are often paying 60-75% of tuition. If anything I see more guys trying to get in younger than later. 

You make very valid points. And now that the big leagues are getting even younger, its best you get in the system early. 

Dirk posted:
RJM posted:

Free agency has no effect on the draft. Players in the draft are years away from free agency. By the time they’re free agents the current CBO will have expired. If it’s not a decade long CBO two could expire. 

Players lose leverage when they stay in school until senior year. They lose anything to hold out with against signing. Typically when high picks don’t sign after junior year they either believe their stock will rise significantly (more money) or they don’t want to be in that organization. 

My broader point is if free agency is changing with such significance where the best of the best very well may never play 10 years in the league, the college degree becomes even more important. Couple that with the new bigger beautiful NCAA stadiums, maybe more players decide to use all their eligibility and agents/front office managements rethink the amateur draft. Already seeing 1st round picks choosing to go to college instead of going pro. Wonder if it’s the beginning of a trend. 

A player can always go back to school for a last year. Plus it’s covered by the MLB scholarship program. Some players chip away by taking a class online during the season.

Last edited by RJM

99% of all drafted players never think about free agency but would be glad to play a single day in mlb.

But if you are such a blue chip prospect that you think about free agency when you are drafted you need to make sure you get drafted as young as possible and then move through the minors as fast as possible. I think harper had that in mind when he did his thing. Harper got drafted at 17 and made the majors at 19 and his young free agency age is a significant advantage. Compared to that college players are usually already 30 at free agency which is a disadvantage because teams don't like to sign past age 35 anymore.

The anti harper example would be peter alonso. He is already like 24.5 years old when he makes the majors and almost 32 at free agency. As a corner guy this will hurt his stock and probably relegate him to one or two year deals.

But as I  said this is a longshot for most, only top5 overall picks can think like that, most others won't make it to year 6 in mlb if they make it to mlb at all.

Last edited by Dominik85

A couple of things.

If the kid thinks he can manipulate the system to suit his own ends as a senior, he should fire his agent. A team will draft him low, keep the rights and the kid will not sign or play. Where does that get him? (Guys have tried this in the recent past to no success - even going so far as to play indy ball. The moral of the story is the dog is MLB and the players are the tail; the tail is simply along for the ride. )

But, all is not lost.

The tippy top senior pitcher(s) will indeed be selected in the first 3 rounds - if he will discount his bonus. BUT the discount is less than a 9th or 10th round senior pick. (E.G., back in 2014 a Maryland senior - Jake Stennet - got 1 mil). These are the mid-90 guys who can also pitch. The next level of senior pitchers get drafted 9th or 10th round and discount about 90% off slot. These guys have demonstrated senior year dominence combined with showing an ability to pitch (i.e., its not all projection); also these guys have some degree of velo (sitting 90 for a LHP). The last level are senior pitchers who had a great senior year AND display a potential MLB tool. These guys simply get a chance to play proball - and if they deserve it, move up.

(if a senior pitcher holds out for slot,  NO TEAM WILL DRAFT HIM ABSENT A PREDRAFT AGREED NUMBER. If a team slot drafts a senior who doesnt sign, someone gets fired.)

Age is the enemy of every proplayer. Decisions flow from that. While there are exceptions, those are extremely rare, and take a 10% success rate, far lower (e.g., Appell).

It is a red flag if a guy isnt willing to sell his soul for his passion - a chance to play proball. Scouts have recounted to me stories of their top draftees who didnt give a hoot for the signing bonus - their thirst for proball was dominating their thoughts and plans. Scouts often refer to huge signing bonuses as "failure bonuses" (their thought is that a first rounder's ultimate career earnings will dwarf the signing bonus). 

So, for that kid who chooses his senior year (not because his junior year offer was perceived as low,  but because he wanted to stay in college) over proball the risk is all his; no team will view him as a savior - because the kid's choice proved proball wasnt his highest priority. No one makes it unless he is all in, all the time,  waking and sleeping,  24/7 365.

"And now that the big leagues are getting even younger, its best you get in the system early."

Age may or may not get younger in MLB but that's not true in the minors. Used to be AA rosters were young players moving up rapidly in the system and AAA rosters were noticeably older. Not really true amymore; many, many AA rosters are full of 25-27 year olds. These guys are good - really good - and have been playing proball for over 5 years. They have learned the game - and, quite simply, the progame is WAY better and different from college.  Only the rarest can rocket through the system - AND stick for any length of time in MLB.

 

Goosegg posted:

A couple of things.

If the kid thinks he can manipulate the system to suit his own ends as a senior, he should fire his agent. A team will draft him low, keep the rights and the kid will not sign or play. Where does that get him? (Guys have tried this in the recent past to no success - even going so far as to play indy ball. The moral of the story is the dog is MLB and the players are the tail; the tail is simply along for the ride. )

But, all is not lost.

The tippy top senior pitcher(s) will indeed be selected in the first 3 rounds - if he will discount his bonus. BUT the discount is less than a 9th or 10th round senior pick. (E.G., back in 2014 a Maryland senior - Jake Stennet - got 1 mil). These are the mid-90 guys who can also pitch. The next level of senior pitchers get drafted 9th or 10th round and discount about 90% off slot. These guys have demonstrated senior year dominence combined with showing an ability to pitch (i.e., its not all projection); also these guys have some degree of velo (sitting 90 for a LHP). The last level are senior pitchers who had a great senior year AND display a potential MLB tool. These guys simply get a chance to play proball - and if they deserve it, move up.

(if a senior pitcher holds out for slot,  NO TEAM WILL DRAFT HIM ABSENT A PREDRAFT AGREED NUMBER. If a team slot drafts a senior who doesnt sign, someone gets fired.)

Age is the enemy of every proplayer. Decisions flow from that. While there are exceptions, those are extremely rare, and take a 10% success rate, far lower (e.g., Appell).

It is a red flag if a guy isnt willing to sell his soul for his passion - a chance to play proball. Scouts have recounted to me stories of their top draftees who didnt give a hoot for the signing bonus - their thirst for proball was dominating their thoughts and plans. Scouts often refer to huge signing bonuses as "failure bonuses" (their thought is that a first rounder's ultimate career earnings will dwarf the signing bonus). 

So, for that kid who chooses his senior year (not because his junior year offer was perceived as low,  but because he wanted to stay in college) over proball the risk is all his; no team will view him as a savior - because the kid's choice proved proball wasnt his highest priority. No one makes it unless he is all in, all the time,  waking and sleeping,  24/7 365.

Really learned a lot from your post. It makes more sense now. I’ve been asked the question how come NCCA football players that are drafted after their fourth year don’t seem to fall in the draft but baseball players do. Your post helps explain that. 

Goosegg posted:

"And now that the big leagues are getting even younger, its best you get in the system early."

Age may or may not get younger in MLB but that's not true in the minors. Used to be AA rosters were young players moving up rapidly in the system and AAA rosters were noticeably older. Not really true amymore; many, many AA rosters are full of 25-27 year olds. These guys are good - really good - and have been playing proball for over 5 years. They have learned the game - and, quite simply, the progame is WAY better and different from college.  Only the rarest can rocket through the system - AND stick for any length of time in MLB.

 

I’ve read in the last couple of weeks that the big leagues have more and more very young guys being brought up. Couple that with where free agency may be going in terms of limiting major free agency of guys like Machado and Harper in their mid twenties, you have to wonder whether the minor leagues are gonna be “churned” more often making for younger MiLB players too. Interesting times. 

You have to devide between org guys and real prospects. Sometimes an org guy makes it to the majors but most of them are there so the prospects have competent teammates.

Many seniors are picked because the are good baseball players who are reasonably polished so they become competent teammates although they don't have the tools for mlb.

You can't just field a team of raw athletes because that would mean terrible baseball and a bad learning experience for the prospects. Ideally you want just good prospects but in reality in later rounds teams have to decide between athletes and players and teams will pick a good mix, some athletes who could turn into players and some steady eddies who can throw strikes and put the ball in play.

Of course those steady eddies still have good tools by college standards but not by pro ball standards. And likewise the athletes still have some baseball ability just not for pro ball (the athlete pitcher will throw 98 and probably will walk 5-6 per 9 innings and the steady eddie pitcher will throw 88-90 with solid command so of course it is not two walks per inning vs 75 mph like in HS).

When I was in college I asked a scout why there were (then) sixty rounds to the draft. He said it was so the top twenty picks, the prospects have teammates. 

I read about five years ago 84% of American MLBers come from the top ten rounds. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. I’ll bet almost everyone who beats those odds (drafted 21-40) is a late blooming pitcher. 

Last edited by RJM
RJM posted:

When I was in college I asked a scout why there were (then) sixty rounds to the draft. He said it was so the top twenty picks, the prospects have teammates. 

I read about five years ago 84% of American MLBers come from the top ten rounds. Another 94% come from rounds 11-20. I’ll bet almost everyone who beats those odds (drafted 21-40) is a late blooming pitcher. 

Also some corner guys who don't stop hitting (like tyler white).

Dominik85 posted:
RJM posted:

When I was in college I asked a scout why there were (then) sixty rounds to the draft. He said it was so the top twenty picks, the prospects have teammates. 

I read about five years ago 84% of American MLBers come from the top ten rounds. Another 94% come from rounds 11-20. I’ll bet almost everyone who beats those odds (drafted 21-40) is a late blooming pitcher. 

Also some corner guys who don't stop hitting (like tyler white).

It’s why I said “almost wveryone.” Always and never are extremes that can prove you wrong. 

PABASEBALL wrote, "as great as some of the college stadiums are, none of them compare to Fenway, Wrigley, or even the majority of minor league stadiums."

The bolded part of your statement is categorically wrong.  In the SEC all but one or 2 ballparks are nicer than the majority of minor league stadiums and the games are better attended too!  The game environment (and everyday life on an SEC campus) is far better than the minor league equivalent.  Same is true for most ACC schools, top half of Big 12, and for top 2 or 3 schools in AAC & Conference USA.  Its not unusual for an SEC game at LSU, Miss St, or Arkansas to draw close to 10,000 fans. This only happens on a rare occasion in minor league baseball. All of this has a lot to do with why so many of the best HS players in the nation want to play in the SEC, ACC, etc.  The overall experience at these schools is way better than a minor league existence (in every way). 

To add a little color to what Adbono said, when Aaron Nola was drafted out of LSU, he started in the minors in the Florida State League (A+), and then was promoted to the Eastern League (AA). At his first start at Reading -- which draws very well for a minor league team -- the news reports said:

"More than 7,200 people came out to watch Nola’s debut and that just added to the fun for the 21-year-old.

“It felt good to be out there in front of a bigger crowd again,” Nola says. “I had that at LSU a lot of starts. Getting back out in front of a big crowd, good fan base, the Phillies fan base is really good. Got a little bit of adrenaline in me going.”"

Point being, he had to get to AA -- and a AA team with very good attendance -- for it to feel anything like it did at LSU.

I can understand why someone would play his fourth year in college instead of being drafted in the 27th round for a 5k bonus and then play on some obscure rookie ball fields with a bunch of 17 and 18 year olds but the OP mentioned a top prospect who is good enough to get millions at the top of the first round and I just can't imagine such a guy not wanting to cash in and then make it to the show as quick as possible just because of the college experience.

Last edited by Dominik85

Add Reply

×
×
×
×
Link copied to your clipboard.
×