My son is a 2022 LHP/OF who has recently identified his dream school (D1 P5 program).  I checked a popular website that tracks college baseball commitments, and the site shows that there are already EIGHT 2022 VERBAL COMMITMENTS for this school.  That's 3/4 of the recruiting class!  So, I have a few questions for the group...

1. Can this be true? How accurate are these sites and how do they get their information?

2. Has my son missed the boat (or at least 3/4 of the boat) on getting recruited at this school? Will he need to rely on some of these kids getting drafted or de-committing?

3. If he wants to go to this school, will he have to commit during his sophomore year to have a chance of going there?

4. Aren't the new rules about coaches contacting players supposed to prevent pressuring kids to commit when they're 14 or 15 years old?

5. Should he try to get in front of this program's coaches any sooner than this summer?

All perspectives are welcome.  Thanks

Original Post

1. All commitments are self-reported. That said, there are often classes that show kids as committed who never show up on their rosters. Some get drafted, some don’t pan out before fall of freshman year...lots of reasons.

2. My opinion, yes and no. If they are that deep into their 2022 class the these are guys they wanted to lock up. Most schools will be looking at players (especially pitchers) until summer after their Junior year.

3. See #2 above

4. There are ways around everything and a kid can initiate communication  with coaches at any age. 

5. Only if what he brings to the table is good enough to turn their heads. If it’s your initial experience with the coaches, a average or bad showing can do more damage than not going until he fits the kind of metrics they are currently recruiting for his year.

I agree wholeheartedly with the above.  My son had many dream schools throughout the process.  For various reasons, they fell off at various times throughout the process. 

1. Mostly, he was never going to be "good" enough to be chosen and even if he was, probably wouldn't play. And these are usually the schools with a nearly full class by the time your kid is a sophomore. Sometimes, the coach just turned out to be an ass, someone he couldn't see playing for.

2. A school/coach will find your son through a camp or tournament and show interest via contacting the coach, invite to a prospect camp, etc. And that may become the dream school because the coach/facilities/record etc is excellent.  My son went to a few where they showed SO much interest in him at the event and then for months and years after. Sometimes it works out and the offer comes, sometimes you get ghosted. 

3. You go to a camp on campus on a whim because you hear they need your son's position. Maybe your travel coach knows the coach. You go, lots of other schools there and your son falls in love with the campus/town/field. Now we have another top prospect school! They have $$ to offer (baseball or academic) so you as the parent are elated!! 

So many scenarios so I'll leave it at that, but he's young.  There's a lot of growing and changing to be done. Emotionally and physically. Geography, financial and potential majors become more important. Let it all play out.  It almost always works out. Our travel coach who is young told us a few years back something that resonated and actually came to fruition with my son.  He said "You never know what can happen. A school you have never heard of can come out of nowhere at the exact right time and be the one you choose. Stay open to any and all opportunities." 

Happened to us in October and we are so happy that it did. Dreams come in all shapes and sizes.  Don't look past any opportunities. There are many fits for your son out there. 

Best of luck!



Is he even good enough to play at this school? None of those questions matter right now if he isn't good enough to play there. Will he need to rely on decommits/draft, will he have to commit his sophomore year... those questions imply that he is somebody that can definitely play there.

I would assume if he were good enough to play at a school of this caliber, people would be telling you already and he would be getting approached by top travel programs to come play with them. I would guess that this information is new to you which would tell me he isn't really around other high level travel teams or ballplayers where conversations about college baseball and recruiting are happening daily. 

If your son is a good ballplayer what you need to do is research the top travel teams in your area and have him start trying out for some. That is the only thing you need to do right now. If he can't make some of the better more competitive travel programs then he'll never make a P5 roster. 

Last edited by PABaseball
knownothingdad posted:

My son is a 2022 LHP/OF who has recently identified his dream school (D1 P5 program).  I checked a popular website that tracks college baseball commitments, and the site shows that there are already EIGHT 2022 VERBAL COMMITMENTS for this school.  That's 3/4 of the recruiting class!  So, I have a few questions for the group...

1. Can this be true? How accurate are these sites and how do they get their information?

2. Has my son missed the boat (or at least 3/4 of the boat) on getting recruited at this school? Will he need to rely on some of these kids getting drafted or de-committing?

3. If he wants to go to this school, will he have to commit during his sophomore year to have a chance of going there?

4. Aren't the new rules about coaches contacting players supposed to prevent pressuring kids to commit when they're 14 or 15 years old?

5. Should he try to get in front of this program's coaches any sooner than this summer?

As for questions...

1. Yes it's true, or very close to being true at least. The commitments are self reported but are probably closer to 100% than 90% accurate. Since they are self reported, there are plenty of kids who never bother to add the commitment meaning there are probably another one or two commits not listed. At 2019s P5, there are 10 listed on PG when 13 signed. 

2. No he hasn't missed the boat but the coaches have what they expect to be the meat of their class - the studs. They're looking to add guys in spots where they may need them, not fill the class per say. They have all next summer to add more guys but really it'll be more fine tuning than anything. They are definitely closer to being done than getting started. Draft is in June of senior year either way so I wouldn't worry about the draft so much. 

3. Can't commit without an offer. 

4. Yes but there are plenty of ways around them. As for the pressure, kids can say thanks but I'd rather wait another year.

5. No, not really. Coaches aren't doing any serious recruiting from now until June. They are all in on their current teams

Is he expected to be a pitcher only?  Pitchers have a bit of time....if your LHP can/will throw 90+ he won't have any problem finding a P5 home.  There is always room for very good pitchers.  They could even invite him to walk on....then they could just throw out the dead weight from another class.

"You want to go where you can play".  <<<<<< This, every time.  

Does your son have the measurables of the other commits at his dream school?  

Last edited by keewart

Some touched on this already, but I would caution him against being too "stuck" on this dream school.  My son had a dream school - dad's alma mater.  When it really came down to it, he realized his dream school was not the right fit for him.  Lots of factors played into this realization - money (out of state) was a big one.  I also think that after visiting campus and being at a camp, the "vibe" from the program and the school was just not him.  Hard to explain, but I told him he would just get a feeling when he was on the right campus.  He ended up choosing a school that was completely off the radar.  They sought him out and he finally relented and went to visit.  He got that feeling I told him about and knew it was right.  All of the other pieces were right as well - money, town, academics, etc.  I guess what I am saying is all the kids have the school they grew up dreaming they would play for, and sometimes that works out.  But don't fret if it doesn't.  There are so many amazing schools out there and there is one that is just right - just keep an open mind!

I will begin by saying that this is probably not going to be a popular post. But as I told RJM, my posts are not about trying to generate “likes.”  I attempt to speak the truth.  And the truth is that the overwhelming majority of parents that have players in the 12 - 16 year old age range are delusional about the potential for their sons to play D1 P5 baseball. The statistical odds are incredibly remote. Somewhere between 6% & 7% of all HS players advance to play college baseball at ANY level. That includes D1, D2, D3, NAIA & JuCo. That means the number of HS players that ever see their name on any D1 roster is more like 2% and P5 less than 1%. So, it’s not enough that your kid is the best 13 year old you have ever seen. Or that he has a certain set of measurables at that age. He has to be an elite player on a national scale. It’s an easier road for pitchers as every team always needs another good one & half of every college roster consists of the pitching staff. But for position players to make a top 50 D1 roster they have to be head turning good. Especially as a hitter. There are some measuring sticks along the way that can be used as a gauge. Scouting service rankings are one - although not totally reliable if they are paid for. And almost all of them are. If you are a position player and you aren’t a HS Varsity starter in your Sophomore year that might be a reality check. But the best gauge of all is the level of interest shown by MLB scouts. If scouts are showing up at games to watch your son then P5 baseball is in the cards for sure. If scouts have never talked to your son by the time he is 17 years old that would be another reality check. The sooner any parent (and player) can get realistic about what level of college baseball (if any) is the proper fit, the better things will work out. Unrealistic expectations only lead to disappointment. 

We didn't really identify a dream school going into recruiting. Now that he's there, it's his dream school. But in support of a couple of previous posts — he's a pitcher who blossomed as a junior and senior and committed in fall of his senior year, after a couple of people who committed early on decommitted, at least one after he and coaches "mutually decided it was no longer a good fit" — which I translated to "he stopped working."

Adbono is right — try to get realistic about what level your son can play at. Then identify some schools just above, just below and right at that level, and go after them. Hopefully the dream is in the mix, but if not, probably time to rework the dream.


So this P5 only recruits 11/12 players every year?  That seems low.  If your son has shown that he is a legitimate P5 LHP, 86 top velo and 82-84 as a sophomore which you stated previously, then he needs to contact his dream school and let them know immediately.  I would say that if he has the numbers they would probably jump on it quickly.  Just know that most will not commit until their summer before junior year or junior year unless it is a handful of P5 schools like Vandy where the LHP number probably jumps a few mph's.  I don't think he has missed the boat being LHP'er at 86 already.  But he needs to go stand on the dock so he doesn't miss the boat.  Plus the boat needs to know that he wants to get on board.

Dreams are a good.  "If you don't have dreams, you have nightmares"..... was a frequently used phrase in my house when my kids were looking at colleges.  I think it is great your son is thinking big.   I also think underclassmen get caught up in the hype, branding and marketing that goes on in college basketball and football.   College and college baseball is a VAST universe of options that need to be explored to know what is possible.  Keep pursuing the dream school, but also begin pursuing other alternatives and options.   As the saying goes, "you're only as good as your options".   This is so true in college baseball recruiting.  If a college coach isn't feeling compelled to make an offer because there is no reason to, then he probably won't.   As others have pointed out you need to make it known your son is interested, and there needs to be a big reason why the coach wants him committed to his program and taken off the market.  Give the coach as many reasons as possible.

Good luck!    

It is nice to have a "dream school" but your son needs to identify what he is looking for in a school and baseball program.  Then see where he fits and what schools are a fit for him.  Look at the churn on college rosters.  There are lots of reasons for churn, but look at a P5 roster over the years and see how few players provide any substantial contribution, the number that move on, etc...  I am aware of a number of players from my area that were really good HS players who went to P5 schools.  In most cases they played little or were didn't make the team.  One player is with his third team and has yet to have a meaningful contribution and he was an absolute stud in HS.  Most of these players could have went to mid majors and had opportunities to show they could play DI baseball.  Figure out what you want then see what options there are both ways.  It ultimately takes a coach extending the opportunity to participate.  Very few HS players realize how good the players are and the level of competition even at a mid major.  Try to be realistic in the decision making process.  

Dream schools are a dream, HS players have no real knowledge of what it is to be a college student for an athlete in college.  Bottom line is that the school he wants to be at if he doesn't make the team or is not satisfied with his role?  

I read on here all the time the turnover in D1 baseball.  I began to look back at the guys who played with my sons that we knew personally playing travel ball.  There are at least 50 kids on this list that went D1.  There are only about 5 that started at a D1 and ended up somewhere else.  That is 10%.  I consider that a very small number.  1 of those flunked out and never played anywhere.  1 got arrested right before college and then again in his freshman fall so he was sent home and is at juco.  Two had injuries and never fully recovered and 1 went to his dream school and didn't make the team as a true walk-on.  But I don't think anyone outside his family thought he had a snowball's chance.  I wonder as we talk about this high percentage of D1 players who do not make it what % that really is that were recruited, not true walk-ons. 

I even looked at the players on my son's team this year that were redshirted or cut and is not coming back.  1 was from 15 hours away and was homesick all fall.  1 was told from the beginning that it would be a longshot but he was willing to try.  several were medical redshirts.  1 missed a couple of practices and classes so he did himself in.  But when you look at the number that are leaving it is still less than 10%. 

So let's be honest because I keep hearing on almost every thread of the large number of players who don't finish at the school they started.  I also hear the phrase stud who did not make it and I have a hard time believing that.  Every stud that I know played as a freshman.  But my definition of stud is different than some.  I put it in perspective of all players not just that area.  I do not know of a stud who did not contribute their freshman year at P5. 

I know of a Gatorade Player of the Year who headed for a ranked SEC program, hit .157 and was told to transfer to a JuCo. He transferred to an ACC, made all conference and was drafted in the first fifteen rounds. Some players have the talent, don’t perform when called and need a second shot someplace else.

Too many players don’t understand the level of competition they’re getting into. They shoot too high and end up on the short end of the competition for positions. A player has to be able to grasp when his dream school has him as a B  list option and consider passing.

On the flip side I know a kid who was a preferred walk on at his dream school and led the ACC in hitting one year. That school was the only one he wanted to attend. He had the grades and money to get in.

The 50% transfer rate for D1 comes from NCAA data.

Last edited by RJM

Just for giggles I did a quick analysis of the class of 2017 from my state.  The top 10 on PBR all committed to P5 schools.  Currently 2 are at original school, 2 are in the minors and 6 have transferred.

I just looked at NCAA reported numbers ( From 2007-2018 the transfer rate for D1 baseball (all transfers (2-4, 4-4) went down from 27.6% in 2007 23% in 2018, with 2-4 transfer staying fairly static around 20%, while 4-4 transfer reduced from 8.1% to 2.2%. So this is nowhere near the 50% that RJM mentioned, however I also think the data is really not representative of the entire transfer picture. What the data does not show is the transfer rate leaving D1 going to D2, D3, NAIA and JUCO, this seems to just be inbound from 2 year to 4 year D1 and within 4-year D1.

Anecdotally, and this is just recent memory here (last couple years) of the kids I kind of followed who went D1 or D2, the “studs” seemed to stick at their first school and the other guys (4 of 5) transferred. Two have gone 4-4 within D1 (one waiting on eligibility waiver for this season), one went D1 to JUCO, the other went D2 to JUCO. The studs are all high round draft prospects and major contributors on their P5 and top mid-major programs.

My data is from 2010 when my son was going through the process. It came from the NCAA. The verbiage was something to the effect of 50% of baseball players transfer out to somewhere else (any level) to play before junior year. A 4-2-4 would be two transfers. As you mentioned the 27% probably isn’t the complete picture. It’s too drastic of a change.

“A 2018 study from the National Student Clearinghouse estimates that 39% of all undergraduates who initially enroll in a four-year institution transfer schools at least once.”

Thus would be all sports. I wonder if some sports have higher transfer rates than others. 

Last edited by RJM

I'm not trying to dispute numbers just going on personal experience.  I just don't see the transfers that everyone talks about.  To me 20% is not a high number.  I bring this up because on almost every thread numerous people will talk about all the kids who don't end up where they started.  I just don't see it.  I think it is a few but not a lot.  I think it will change in the coming years as the openness of the portal begins to be more in play.  I'm not happy so I will go somewhere and not have to sit whereas in the past it was transfer and sit a year.

This is where the attrition rates on CBI's datasets can be useful, especially compared with transfers into the program.  Some schools have 8 freshmen leave one year, but 0 the next, so clearly it can vary.  But some are more consistent in one direction or the other (as was noted for the Ivy League set). 

Also, those datasets are, I think, based on rostered players.  So, "preferred walkons" who might commit on PG but never make a spring roster, may not be being counted. 

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