Whether aggregate transfer rate is 20% or 80%, it’s a real possibility. Competition will be steep. Real question is what is it for your kid, and is he prepared for how tough it will be, and can he handle the “failure” if he transfers?
I tell my kid PG lists 22 kids in his class. My son says he’s all in, and tells me to stop worrying about it.
No one chooses a school intending to transfer.
One real issue for kids is this: most D1 schools have no time for a player to find his game. The leap from HS to college is in every way (academically, socially, athletically) a huge leap; these power programs dont have time to wait. AND most don't have time (or even ability) to actually develop talent - especially development cases.
I will use my son's case as an example. Drafted out of HS throwing over 90 as a LHP, it was expected that he would make an immediate impact and lead the team to multiple championships (after all, how hard could it really be?). By the end of his junior year, he wasn't even on the travel roster.
During those three years, he never stopped grinding; but there was no coaching to match the grinding (that said, his coaches were fantastic mentors and did a superb job in moving him from a teen to an adult and we have zero complaints). He simply couldn't consistently deliver results.
Any other program would have forced him out. But, his league has no attrition and his team doesn't carry 35. This meant he remained on the team and was given repeated opportunities - summer and season. EVENTUALLY he adjusted to the college game - in the fall of his senior year.
No one expects to be the guy who struggles; we all believe our kid will outwork, out perform, out hustle the other kids. Every kid believes this, but its axiomatic that it can't be that every player is number 1. And, if your kid is slow out of the gate the transfers begin.
GOOSEGG,
Great post. As some know, mine also struggled quite a bit adjusting to the college game. Fortunate for him, he had a great pitching coach who never gave up on him. Also, the ACC was weaker back then, with no roster limits. Back then you had much more of an opportunity to grow up than now. Unless you are a top proven prospect who gave up draft, in the top P5 programs, you don't get much time to prove yourself.
anotherparent posted:This is where the attrition rates on CBI's datasets can be useful, especially compared with transfers into the program. Some schools have 8 freshmen leave one year, but 0 the next, so clearly it can vary. But some are more consistent in one direction or the other (as was noted for the Ivy League set).
Also, those datasets are, I think, based on rostered players. So, "preferred walkons" who might commit on PG but never make a spring roster, may not be being counted.
I agree 100%. I also found it a great resource for players looking to play out of state. If you want to look at a program from the state where I live, you won't find many out of state players in most D1 programs.
Again, this is a great resource. Those looking to go to a camp out of state, check out the info on the database, I believe every conference has been listed. If you see that only a select few from out of state have been on the roster for the last few years, is this really a good way to spend your money?
I wonder what happens in a situation I heard of yesterday. The P5 team had already had end of fall meetings. Players were told who was kept, cut, and redshirted. Yesterday, a player came in on last day before Christmas break and cleaned out his locker and dorm room. Told coach he was not coming back and he was a kept player. Do you think they go back to one of the redshirt guys and say you have a spot or go try to get someone to help immediately if they did not think the redshirt guy was ready? I'm sure it happens but just never heard of it. Was told he was homesick being a long way from home.
PitchingFan posted:I wonder what happens in a situation I heard of yesterday. The P5 team had already had end of fall meetings. Players were told who was kept, cut, and redshirted. Yesterday, a player came in on last day before Christmas break and cleaned out his locker and dorm room. Told coach he was not coming back and he was a kept player. Do you think they go back to one of the redshirt guys and say you have a spot or go try to get someone to help immediately if they did not think the redshirt guy was ready? I'm sure it happens but just never heard of it. Was told he was homesick being a long way from home.
Geez, that’s called looking a gift horse in the mouth! I would imagine there is more to the story, I can’t imagine a player who was told he is going to get playing time leaving.
As stated above, Dream schools and "best fit" are often not the same. There are so many factors that go into a decision... baseball program, coaches, number of recruits per class, the competitiveness of the team and league, ability to play, number of transfers each year, campus, food, urban vs. rural, academic rank, academic program availability, far from home, close to home, career planning, student happiness, etc... What is important to your son as a Freshman may not be as important as a Senior in high school. Maybe academics and the ability to play will be more important than conference and the school's football team's success. A lot can happen between where a player is projected and what a player actually becomes. My son's dream school has changed a few times over the years... and i was standing precisely where you are now. Here's hoping that dream school and best fit will merge. If not, its finding out what is most important to your son and understanding that the school may not be as strong in other areas, and accepting that. Best of luck and enjoy the journey.
I think the transfer numbers can be deceiving as stated by several posters above. My sons Connie Mack team had I believe 10 or 11 kids "committed" to a P5 team. 8 or 9 of those kids transferred out at Christmas break with most going JUCO route. Technically they were not yet rostered players. So if a non-rostered player transfers to another school, would he actually be considered a transfer since he wasn't on team? I think this scenario happens more often than not but I am not sure how it is accounted for, if at all.
Go44dad posted:Whether aggregate transfer rate is 20% or 80%, it’s a real possibility. Competition will be steep. Real question is what is it for your kid, and is he prepared for how tough it will be, and can he handle the “failure” if he transfers?
I tell my kid PG lists 22 kids in his class. My son says he’s all in, and tells me to stop worrying about it.
Based on the high rate of roster turnover at the school your son is headed to, and the rampant amount of over recruiting that is also done there, there is plenty to worry about. At a minimum I would suggest a well thought out plan B.
FriarFred posted:I think the transfer numbers can be deceiving as stated by several posters above. My sons Connie Mack team had I believe 10 or 11 kids "committed" to a P5 team. 8 or 9 of those kids transferred out at Christmas break with most going JUCO route. Technically they were not yet rostered players. So if a non-rostered player transfers to another school, would he actually be considered a transfer since he wasn't on team? I think this scenario happens more often than not but I am not sure how it is accounted for, if at all.
Were most of these guys scholarship players or walk ons?
baseballhs posted:FriarFred posted:I think the transfer numbers can be deceiving as stated by several posters above. My sons Connie Mack team had I believe 10 or 11 kids "committed" to a P5 team. 8 or 9 of those kids transferred out at Christmas break with most going JUCO route. Technically they were not yet rostered players. So if a non-rostered player transfers to another school, would he actually be considered a transfer since he wasn't on team? I think this scenario happens more often than not but I am not sure how it is accounted for, if at all.
Were most of these guys scholarship players or walk ons?
No idea - I am sure a majority were "recruited" walk-ons but probably no scholly involved.
I ask because I know several P5 scholarship guys this happened to...after one semester. I didn't think that was common but I am not so sure.
baseballhs posted:I ask because I know several P5 scholarship guys this happened to...after one semester. I didn't think that was common but I am not so sure.
My gut tells me that there is probably a large number of scholarship players that are told they will not get any playing time and "choose" to leave. I think it is much more common that we all realize.
FriarFred posted:baseballhs posted:I ask because I know several P5 scholarship guys this happened to...after one semester. I didn't think that was common but I am not so sure.
My gut tells me that there is probably a large number of scholarship players that are told they will not get any playing time and "choose" to leave. I think it is much more common that we all realize.
I have been saying this for years....
adbono posted:Go44dad posted:Whether aggregate transfer rate is 20% or 80%, it’s a real possibility. Competition will be steep. Real question is what is it for your kid, and is he prepared for how tough it will be, and can he handle the “failure” if he transfers?
I tell my kid PG lists 22 kids in his class. My son says he’s all in, and tells me to stop worrying about it.
Based on the high rate of roster turnover at the school your son is headed to, and the rampant amount of over recruiting that is also done there, there is plenty to worry about. At a minimum I would suggest a well thought out plan B.
My plan B is to call you.
My son has no plan B, just a plan A. It's the same plan he has been working on for four years.
Well, Coaches always have a plan B, C, D...some of the big-name programs that have a large recruiting class out of high school, and then announce a highly ranked JUCO recruiting class are tipping their hands, especially if that class is loaded with pitching. Respice finem....
collegebaseballrecruitingguide posted:Well, Coaches always have a plan B, C, D...some of the big-name programs that have a large recruiting class out of high school, and then announce a highly ranked JUCO recruiting class are tipping their hands, especially if that class is loaded with pitching. Respice finem....
There is no hand to tip, all the cards are on the table. They have been since he committed. Son is all in, there is no thought of “plan B” or “what if I’m not good enough?”.
As a coach, would you want a kid who has one foot on plan A and his other on plan B? Or a kid that says “I choose your smaller program because I didn’t think it would be as hard as that big, competitive, scary school.”
Incendite Naves!
Besides, it’s just baseball and school. Neither are required for a happy life.
Glad you have that outlook, of course go full steam ahead. Just know, that once that ship starts burning, knowing where the life raft is located is an important element of survival.
Good luck
Couple of Latin scholars going at it!!
Has to be a first here.
#1 Assistant Coach posted:Couple of Latin scholars going at it!!
Has to be a first here.
google is my friend
