Elephant in the room

@roothog66 posted:

Smitty, you continue to put out this crap. While an internal study paid for by the teacher's union did, in fact RECOMMEND this, the Union itself did not and (THAT'S EVEN IN THE STORY YOU POSTED) presented their "demands" as outlined in the statement I posted above directly from the union.

It doesn't matter.  Neither you nor I are at the negotiating table so neither of us really know what is being "demanded" in the actual negotiations, but when they publicly publish a piece that links police defunding to re-opening schools, they are politicizing the issue.

@roothog66 posted:

Actually, they are being talked about a lot. Also, where do you get the idea that "in person" education is a "right?" Please show me WHERE that "right" has been granted. There is no "right" to this outside of what is granted by statute or the Constitution It's nowhere in the Constitution (note that public education didn't even exist in 1792). 

Actually, as a legal matter, this is true.  The Supreme Court has not recognized a "right" to education.

@roothog66 posted:

Look, my wife's a teacher and she actually wants to go back because she finds teaching online far more difficult. However, there has to be a balance between the fact that children learn better in person and the significant health risks involved in shoving kids into what were already in many instances crowded class rooms. I see one major school district in California that will split the classes up between online and in-person so that they can have classrooms with a minimal number of students socially distanced and wearing masks. However, I'll mention the problem again - what do you do when someone in the class inevitably tests positive?

I have no idea what classes are like in CA, but in FL, they aren't overcrowded, desks are 6 feet apart facing the same direction (which my wife hates because she likes the desks facing each other). Our school district will be more safe than what these kids are doing right now with the various camps and other activities they are doing with no safety measures. 

I don't know that kids will test positive. They are going to have a temperature check before they enter school. If they have a fever they are going home. If the parents then have them tested I'm guessing they will be home for two weeks. However, if they are sending their kid to school with a fever in this situation I doubt they will have the initiative to have them tested. 

Our district has a plan for teachers testing positive, you can come back when you test negative. That can be a couple days, that can be 2 weeks. Now, if they have 25% of their staff test positive, I'm not sure what the plan is. 

@anotherparent posted:

I said it was an opinion piece.  Do you know what footnotes are?  The data and science are in the articles cited in the footnotes.

It's fine to say that teachers (or nurses) should show up in person or find another job.  What happens if they don't have enough teachers (or nurses) to run the schools (or hospitals)?  Or do you think that won't happen?  I'm really curious.  I don't see why it has to be adversarial; in fact, it cannot succeed if it's adversarial.  Parents need teachers, teachers need parents. 

You mean all the literature he scanned written in the span of the last two or three months? Like this one:

"The detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in presymptomatic or asymptomatic persons does not prove that they can transmit the virus to others. We describe evidence that supports the concept of transmission while presymptomatic and asymptomatic, which we found during a rapid literature review conducted at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in early April 2020."

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/arti...26/7/20-1595_article

That's some good science for you! That's how I became an expert: rapid literature review.  ;-)

It seems everything we know about mask-wearing has been discovered this year. We have sent advanced, scientific vehicles to Mars for multi-year missions and yet didn't know masks protect against the transmission of viruses until April 2020.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I have no idea what classes are like in CA, but in FL, they aren't overcrowded, desks are 6 feet apart facing the same direction (which my wife hates because she likes the desks facing each other). Our school district will be more safe than what these kids are doing right now with the various camps and other activities they are doing with no safety measures. 

 

Some districts in Georgia, in the Atlanta metro area no less, have just flat out said they cannot socially distance their classrooms, that with the number of kids per classroom (sometimes up to 30 or 40 kids) it isn't physically possible.  Yet, those same school districts have said they will only "recommend" kids wear masks.  Crazy.

@ABSORBER posted:

You mean all the literature he scanned written in the span of the last two or three months? Like this one:

"The detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in presymptomatic or asymptomatic persons does not prove that they can transmit the virus to others. We describe evidence that supports the concept of transmission while presymptomatic and asymptomatic, which we found during a rapid literature review conducted at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in early April 2020."

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/arti...26/7/20-1595_article

That's some good science for you! That's how I became an expert: rapid literature review.  ;-)

It seems everything we know about mask-wearing has been discovered this year. We have sent advanced, scientific vehicles to Mars for multi-year missions and yet didn't know masks protect against the transmission of viruses until April 2020.

Haven’t people in Asia worn masks for years to prevent flu spread? Maybe we should check out their studies. 

@LuckyCat posted:

Some districts in Georgia, in the Atlanta metro area no less, have just flat out said they cannot socially distance their classrooms, that with the number of kids per classroom (sometimes up to 30 or 40 kids) it isn't physically possible.  Yet, those same school districts have said they will only "recommend" kids wear masks.  Crazy.

Jeez, maybe FL should tell the teachers here they can go teach in GA! That'll shut em up quick. 

The kids in Atlanta metro are probably the ones most in need of school resuming. They need to figure it out. I have no solution, but for those kid's sake I hope they do. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

**EDIT** My wife just got off a conference with her school and they said they are down to only 50 virtual requests out of 700. There are just under 100 that didn't respond that are being considered in person. So nowhere near the numbers they were expecting. 

Yep, that's how it is here, too.  I heard from a principal that the only people requesting virtual were those with clear health issues in the students or their families.  In fact, I think they were expecting more.

The virtual schooling our system offered is all asynchronous, that means, sitting in front of a computer for 6 hours watching non-live video and doing work.  We will choose hybrid, because if the schools do shut down, those classes will go to live video, which is much better.

@Iowamom23 posted:

Haven’t people in Asia worn masks for years to prevent flu spread? Maybe we should check out their studies. 

Yeah, we see how well that did with the prevention of viral spread! 

@anotherparent posted:

Yep, that's how it is here, too.  I heard from a principal that the only people requesting virtual were those with clear health issues in the students or their families.  In fact, I think they were expecting more.

The virtual schooling our system offered is all asynchronous, that means, sitting in front of a computer for 6 hours watching non-live video and doing work.  We will choose hybrid, because if the schools do shut down, those classes will go to live video, which is much better.

Our teachers will be live-streamed all day for the virtual kids. Most teachers are not happy with this. I personally wouldn't want my kid on video, but I'm staying out of that argument. 

@ABSORBER posted:

It seems everything we know about mask-wearing has been discovered this year. We have sent advanced, scientific vehicles to Mars for multi-year missions and yet didn't know masks protect against the transmission of viruses until April 2020.

So you're saying that no science should be done in the middle of a crisis, because it will all be too recent? 

Of course no American science was done about masks until recently.  As has been pointed out many, many times, there has been plenty of science before now, but people didn't want to know about it.  People like you said, no, that doesn't count.  So, now they are doing more science.  And then you don't like it because it's too recent? 

In 1918 they mandated masks in some places, too.  They had science about it even back then.  Is that old enough for you?  And, even back then, there were anti-mask groups. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Is GA not requiring masks to return to school? What other districts or states will not be requiring masks, distancing, or other safety measures?

NH is not requiring students to wear masks in the classroom.

@ABSORBER posted:

Yeah, we see how well that did with the prevention of viral spread! 

Well, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are all playing baseball with fans in the stands. Seems like they did something right.

@wildcat posted:

NH is not requiring students to wear masks in the classroom.

That's surprising given some of their other restrictions, but NH has one of the lowest counts in the country doesn't it? Are the local school districts requiring it? 

@LuckyCat posted:

TBPT, there will be no "normal" education for now.  It's going to suck no matter what.  If we all pull together and take this virus seriously, we have the best chance of letting kids start AND finish a semester inside a school room if that's what they and their parents want to do.  We really are all in this together.

I consider myself a logical person. My logic says that people who think this disease will just go away if we all take it seriously "because we are all in this together" are not very logical.

Taking this "seriously" means accept that it is here to stay, just like the flu and the common cold. Take precautions as necessary and get on with your life. Do you think this is the first time humans have dealt with disease? Do you think that this is a world-changing disease? Did the flu go away? Has the common cold (SARS variant) gone away? Can we be reinfected with the common cold? Is there a vaccine for the common cold? Do older and immune-compromised people die from the flu and other related complications (pneumonia)? Are there outliers where seemingly otherwise healthy people succumb to some affliction or another leaving people questioning how it could have possibly happened? Do some people have long-term health damage as a result of having pneumonia and other afflictions?

Are your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, people on your left and on your right dying every day? No? Then perhaps this isn't quite as bad as the media and political pundits have made it out to be. Perhaps those Swedes aren't so crazy after all.

What SHOULD happen when a student or teacher tests positive? First of all, I would imagine they were tested because they went to their doctor because they felt sick or showed symptoms. So hopefully they called in sick because, well, they felt too sick to attend. Everyone who shows up in class is there because they DID NOT FEEL SICK or DID NOT HAVE ANY SYMPTOMS. Does this mean they weren't exposed? No. Will they show symptoms or feel sick at a later date? Perhaps. If so they should stay home and perhaps visit a doctor who may or may not order a test to see if they have a particular disease: flu, strep, mono, COVID, bubonic plague, etc.. Does this practice sound familiar? Will people die? Yes. Will people die if we do remote-learning for everyone, wear masks, and forever give up sporting events and like activity? Yes. Will mankind be wiped off the face of the earth? I would guess probably not.

Make your choice.

I will make mine using common sense.

But please, please, please, just realize that it is here to stay. The rest of this year and for many, many, many years to come. That's reality. Take it seriously.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

That's surprising given some of their other restrictions, but NH has one of the lowest counts in the country doesn't it? Are the local school districts requiring it? 

For our local district, they are not 'requiring' it, as they don't want to have to deal with the discipline issues it will cause. 

We have around 1/4 of kids opting out of online education, so my wife will have relatively small classes with live streaming.  She gets no additional time to work on that, and nobody really knows exactly how it will work.  What is interesting is that our state already has public online education that was set up by a University.  Parents can opt to do that as well, and I know ones who are.   Those teachers get paid less than classroom teachers (I know a few of them as well).  My kids are looking forward to HS, and will go.  TBH, from anecdotal discussions with different HS aged kids, I'd be willing to bet 1/4 or more of them already had it this summer when they ignored social distancing and hung out together.  Most of the ones who tested positive didn't even know they had it.

@anotherparent posted:

So you're saying that no science should be done in the middle of a crisis, because it will all be too recent? 

Of course no American science was done about masks until recently.  As has been pointed out many, many times, there has been plenty of science before now, but people didn't want to know about it.  People like you said, no, that doesn't count.  So, now they are doing more science.  And then you don't like it because it's too recent? 

In 1918 they mandated masks in some places, too.  They had science about it even back then.  Is that old enough for you?  And, even back then, there were anti-mask groups. 

Science of convenience? Science of affirmation? Political science?

Science doesn't happen in the span of two or three months. These "studies" are there simply to make a statement. Why do you suppose we don't have vaccines ready for the public in two or three months? Most people will be unwilling to allow themselves to be vaccinated after months and years of testing. But we should certainly be willing to wear a mask after a few timely articles appear to support "science."

Science says we should wash our hands and cover our mouths and faces when coughing or sneezing. This may also just be common sense.

But I guess we can't trust our fellow humans to abide by these practices so we think mask mandates will add to the protection level. Because everything helps so lets mandate it.

SC governor just mandated that all districts WILL open on September 8th and will have to provide 5 day in person and online options.  Maybe now the SCHSL will decide what will happen with sports.  He did not say whether masks could, should, would be required but more information coming.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

That's surprising given some of their other restrictions, but NH has one of the lowest counts in the country doesn't it? Are the local school districts requiring it? 

NH actually had a pretty bad outbreak at the beginning in relation to its small population, at twice the rate of its neighbors (VT/ME) but most of New England is pretty stable right now. Still, I would think twice if I were a teacher in a classroom without masks in use as we get into the colder months given aging buildings with poor ventilation and inability to open windows. 

@ABSORBER posted:

I consider myself a logical person. My logic says that people who think this disease will just go away if we all take it seriously "because we are all in this together" are not very logical.

Taking this "seriously" means accept that it is here to stay, just like the flu and the common cold. Take precautions as necessary and get on with your life. Do you think this is the first time humans have dealt with disease? Do you think that this is a world-changing disease? Did the flu go away? Has the common cold (SARS variant) gone away? Can we be reinfected with the common cold? Is there a vaccine for the common cold? Do older and immune-compromised people die from the flu and other related complications (pneumonia)? Are there outliers where seemingly otherwise healthy people succumb to some affliction or another leaving people questioning how it could have possibly happened? Do some people have long-term health damage as a result of having pneumonia and other afflictions?

Are your family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, people on your left and on your right dying every day? No? Then perhaps this isn't quite as bad as the media and political pundits have made it out to be. Perhaps those Swedes aren't so crazy after all.

What SHOULD happen when a student or teacher tests positive? First of all, I would imagine they were tested because they went to their doctor because they felt sick or showed symptoms. So hopefully they called in sick because, well, they felt too sick to attend. Everyone who shows up in class is there because they DID NOT FEEL SICK or DID NOT HAVE ANY SYMPTOMS. Does this mean they weren't exposed? No. Will they show symptoms or feel sick at a later date? Perhaps. If so they should stay home and perhaps visit a doctor who may or may not order a test to see if they have a particular disease: flu, strep, mono, COVID, bubonic plague, etc.. Does this practice sound familiar? Will people die? Yes. Will people die if we do remote-learning for everyone, wear masks, and forever give up sporting events and like activity? Yes. Will mankind be wiped off the face of the earth? I would guess probably not.

Make your choice.

I will make mine using common sense.

But please, please, please, just realize that it is here to stay. The rest of this year and for many, many, many years to come. That's reality. Take it seriously.

You are not taking it seriously.  You are minimizing it.  It is indeed here to stay and we will need to figure out how to live with it safely until we have a vaccine or more effective treatment so that it doesn't endanger anyone over 50 or with an underlying health condition.  In the meantime, however long that is, we will need to do all the things our public health officials are urging us to do if we want any semblance of normal life and any sort of economic recovery.  That is common sense and reality.

ETA: Perhaps we won't need to wait as long as we think.  Here's a glimmer of good news.  And I'm posting the study since I'm pretty sure you won't want to read the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...featured_coronavirus

@LuckyCat posted:

You are not taking it seriously.  You are minimizing it.  It is indeed here to stay and we will need to figure out how to live with it safely until we have a vaccine or more effective treatment so that it doesn't endanger anyone over 50 or with an underlying health condition.  In the meantime, however long that is, we will need to do all the things our public health officials are urging us to do if we want any semblance of normal life and any sort of economic recovery.  That is common sense and reality.

ETA: Perhaps we won't need to wait as long as we think.  Here's a glimmer of good news.  And I'm posting the study since I'm pretty sure you won't want to read the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...&pgtype=Homepage

https://community.hsbaseballwe...85#63248239632249385

Like we do with the flu?

@Iowamom23 posted:

Well, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are all playing baseball with fans in the stands. Seems like they did something right.

There is PLENTY baseball being played in this country right now. Just not MLB or MiLB. Lots of people in stands and attending games. I'm enjoying every second of it. So are the other folks who are attending. Yes, some wear masks and that's their choice. For those who choose to wear a mask, the lure of watching baseball is enough for them to risk attending! And no, they are not just people who wear a mask because they are respectful of others--it's very easy to spot their true feelings in their body movement. Kind of like the people I pass in the halls at my workplace (we all have to wear masks) who press up against the walls of the corridor when we pass one another. Their absolute fear is easy to spot. Their family, friends, neighbors, and people on their left and right must be dropping like flies!

If anyone knows the Southern California map:

The 3 very populated counties from North to South along the coast:

LA  - Schools-  "Keep schools closed ..defund police..their unions are nuts..etc.."

Orange County-  "Screw LA County and Newsom..schools open ..no masks in school.

San Diego County.  "Online classes for the first week and will determine what to do after that ..but pretty cautious-."

IMO  there should not be 3 different policies for 3 very closely related areas.   They all seem to be handling things in their own way and it is pretty much a overall mess..

@ABSORBER posted:

Like we do with the flu?

Just keep your head in the sand.  That will work.

@LuckyCat posted:

Just keep your head in the sand.  That will work.

There are worse places to keep your head. Let me know what it’s like.

@fishnsail posted:

If anyone knows the Southern California map:

The 3 very populated counties from North to South along the coast:

LA  - Schools-  "Keep schools closed ..defund police..unions are nuts..etc.."

Orange County-  "Screw LA County and Newsom..schools open ..no masks in school.

San Diego County.  "Online classes for the first week and will determine that ..but pretty cautious ."

 

IMO  there should not be 3 different policies for 3 very closely related areas.   They all seem to be handling things in their own way and it is pretty much a overall mess..

I completely agree.  And WHY are there so many different Covid policies/non-policies at the local, county and state levels?  

Yes, that is a rhetorical question.

This country needs to come together.  We need to come together.

Any conversation that starts with the premise that half of us are bad people isn't going to get us anywhere.   We're gonna have to figure out how to make progress in spite of our current lack of leadership at the top levels.  As with most complex issues, best resolution will most likely require not only smart and forward thinking solutions but some level of concession, compromise and sacrifice by all involved.  Like it or not, we ARE all involved.

@cabbagedad posted:

I completely agree.  And WHY are there so many different Covid policies/non-policies at the local, county and state levels?  

Yes, that is a rhetorical question.

This country needs to come together.  We need to come together.

Any conversation that starts with the premise that half of us are bad people isn't going to get us anywhere.   We're gonna have to figure out how to make progress is spite of our current lack of leadership at the top levels.  As with most complex issues, best resolution will most likely require not only smart and forward thinking solutions but some level of concession, compromise and sacrifice by all involved.  Like it or not, we ARE all involved.

 

Would you agree that Humboldt and the Sierras are very different than Southern California, and that a set of rules that work for one may not be best for the other?  Would you also agree that Wyoming is very different than New Jersey, and that one set of rules may not make sense for both?  If you disagree, would you force NJ to do what is best for Wyoming, or force Wyoming to do what's best for NJ?

@LuckyCat posted:

You are not taking it seriously.  You are minimizing it.  It is indeed here to stay and we will need to figure out how to live with it safely until we have a vaccine or more effective treatment so that it doesn't endanger anyone over 50 or with an underlying health condition.  In the meantime, however long that is, we will need to do all the things our public health officials are urging us to do if we want any semblance of normal life and any sort of economic recovery.  That is common sense and reality.

ETA: Perhaps we won't need to wait as long as we think.  Here's a glimmer of good news.  And I'm posting the study since I'm pretty sure you won't want to read the NYT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...&pgtype=Homepage

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/...featured_coronavirus

Just like to point out this from the results: 

"Solicited adverse events that occurred in more than half the participants included fatigue, chills, headache, myalgia, and pain at the injection site. Systemic adverse events were more common after the second vaccination, particularly with the highest dose, and three participants (21%) in the 250-μg dose group reported one or more severe adverse events."

It seems that a majority of students have side effects, which for young people, higher than having symptoms with covid (I read a study where it was 20%).  

Not trying to read further into this, except to say that this may not be a panacea.... I'm hopeful, though.

@fishnsail posted:

IMO  there should not be 3 different policies for 3 very closely related areas.   They all seem to be handling things in their own way and it is pretty much a overall mess..

Unless the governor forces everybody to follow one policy they won't.  The same for the federal government, which has no power to force one policy without new laws passed.  That is the nature of the US, but at least the governor can be more hands on with school policy, I would assume.  I'm surprised he isn't, as he is quick to use his power to shut down businesses.  There are also some governors who are showing more leadership on this outside of Cali.

The science says going back to school for children is safe. It’s been proven in schools in country after country around the world. Statistical science says it’s safe for adults under 45yo. Is science only valid when it fits the Mainstream Media Democrat Party Fan Club franchise’s agenda? Here’s input from a bunch of American pediatricians. I love the look of shock on the MS-NBC host’s face after receiving an unexpected response.

https://youtu.be/UJNWdLRGuwE

@FoxDad posted:

It's been that way here (Virginia) since March or April.   Though in a way it's a joke - I've seen some customers not wearing a mask after entering the store.   And no, no one says anything.

Not to mention the Walmart employees who have a mask covering below their chin.  I can't be too critical as I have forgot and left my office a couple of times without it.... Once I had to run back in the building to get it, and then get seen by everybody maskless (oh the shame) .

This. I don’t think people everyone need to stay home to the degree we were before but if could just focus on acts of solidarity it would be a huge step forward  

Beating  this will be on state and local governments to a degree but even more on individuals to be safe, responsible and smart  

@Iowamom23 posted:

Well, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea are all playing baseball with fans in the stands. Seems like they did something right.

My guess is you are probably right, and it probably included stopping media and politicians from running amuck in the middle of a health crisis to exploit it for political gain.

Somewhat off topic, but our house has been the place my son's friends come to hang out for the past few summers. This summer is different with no kids hanging out. His best friend just moved back from CA this week and is staying with us a few days. There are now 10 kids (including one who had Covid a couple weeks ago) over playing in the pool and having a blast. Some of the parents have texted asking if they can come over after work, lol. It is awesome to watch these kids be kids again. I miss that sound.

@Smitty28 posted:

I clicked on the first link (Washington Examiner) which included a link to the unions "research paper", which is a list of demands that must be met before they agree to return to the class room.  This paper includes this demand on page 10:

1. Defund Police: Police violence is a leading cause of death and trauma for Black people, and is a serious public health and moral issue.65 We must shift the astronomical amount of money devoted to policing, to education and other essential needs such as housing and public health.

My point was (and is) that this issue has become so politicized by doctors, the media, politicians, and now teachers that no news story, article, data or "expert opinion" can be trusted and go unchallenged.  Hence, the endless debate about masks, etc.

 

Truthfully, I think this issue has become politicized by people who don't want to listen to the doctors, the media, the politicians or the teachers.

@Pedaldad posted:

My guess is you are probably right, and it probably included stopping media and politicians from running amuck in the middle of a health crisis to exploit it for political gain.

Or maybe it involved ordinary citizens coming together for the common good.

@Smitty28 posted:

Would you agree that Humboldt and the Sierras are very different than Southern California, and that a set of rules that work for one may not be best for the other?  Would you also agree that Wyoming is very different than New Jersey, and that one set of rules may not make sense for both?  If you disagree, would you force NJ to do what is best for Wyoming, or force Wyoming to do what's best for NJ?

Really not looking to get back into the weeds but...

Of course.  Myself and others have agreed openly here many times that there should be allowances for regions, cities, etc. where special consideration is given to population density, spread rate, etc.  But, clearly, there must be more leadership from above, a set of overall guidelines, more support of top experts, a more consistent, calming, assuring message with a solid path mapped out.  

Instead, we are getting the complete opposite.  The medical/health experts have and continue to map out those guidelines that will give us the best chance to get to a better place as quickly as possible.  We can continue to go back and forth with blame but WH leadership has clearly set a miserable example of supporting and promoting those guidelines and certainly hasn't come up with anything resembling a better plan.  Yes, some of the details from the health experts deviate as more is learned about this specific virus but the staples are still there.  The social distancing and sanitizing principals still apply.  They have now adjusted their guidelines to be more amicable as to not require another shutdown but, still, far too many refuse to comply and this will only exacerbate the problem and set us further back.  

BTW, examples like what Fishnsail gave are far from your Wyoming/NJ scenario... it was three adjacent heavily populated counties - and this certainly isn't unique to California.  Also, regional cross-contamination must be factored in.  When there are restrictions in one area, people from that area will seek out less restricted neighboring areas.  Thus, another need for some level of overall guidelines.

@Iowamom23 posted:

Truthfully, I think this issue has become politicized by people who don't want to listen to the doctors, the media, the politicians or the teachers.

People didn't politicize the letter signed by 1200 doctors saying it was ok for BLM to protest but no one else.  People didn't politicize the media coverage, the media did.  People didn't politicize the LA teachers union, they did this themselves.

@Iowamom23 posted:

Or maybe it involved ordinary citizens coming together for the common good.

Your logic is equivalent to telling a kid that if he doesn't become Mike Trout, he probably just didn't work hard enough and ignores the innate difference between Mike Trout and that aspiring kid that cannot be overcome with hard work.

As a media person, are you asking why most of your colleagues and the politicians that want to gain something from this are all adhering to the "modelers" and the "predictors" that have all been emphatic with their opinions from the beginning, and have all been wrong.  Many on this board have liked to defend the errors of these modelers and say the information is changing so quickly, don't hold someone accountable to what they said a few months ago.   I agree.

But what I will hold the modelers, politicians, and the media accountable for is not adjusting to the evidence that we now have. 

@Pedaldad posted:

Your logic is equivalent to telling a kid that if he doesn't become Mike Trout, he probably just didn't work hard enough and ignores the innate difference between Mike Trout and that aspiring kid that cannot be overcome with hard work.

As a media person, are you asking why most of your colleagues and the politicians that want to gain something from this are all adhering to the "modelers" and the "predictors" that have all been emphatic with their opinions from the beginning, and have all been wrong.  Many on this board have liked to defend the errors of these modelers and say the information is changing so quickly, don't hold someone accountable to what they said a few months ago.   I agree.

But what I will hold the modelers, politicians, and the media accountable for is not adjusting to the evidence that we now have. 

I know you like to throw around facts and figures that support your point of view and attack other people for not using logic etc.

That's fine. I'm no expert on any of this and I don't pretend to be. All I know is 10,000 people can go to a baseball game in Taiwan. Our pro games will be played with empty stands. I'd like to try what they tried.