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Originally posted by PGStaff:
Good points stats. Obviously you can't use only one source of information, but any and all sources can be an indicator. Visual is by far the most common way to determine when a pitcher is fatigued. Sometimes it's as simple as seeing the results. Other things would include losing command, movement and velocity. Often these things happen together, but not always. This can be a result of mechanical flaws or it can be a result of being fatigued.
Sometimes people feel I’m on some kind of vendetta against coaches, and being as how so many people on boards like this are coaches, there’s gonna be a lot of folks who don’t like what I have to say or the way I say it. But the truth is, no one has a greater respect for coaches because they at least put their butts on the line. But that’s a general respect, the same as I respect teachers, policemen, or those in the armed forces.
Its possible to respect someone for what they chose to do, but still not like ignorance, and that’s an underlying current here. There are many ways to judge many things in baseball, but for some reason, this particular one seems to be one of the, if not the most difficult. What I’m saying is, it’s a lot more difficult than most people with only a cursory understanding of the intricacies of the game gets.
It just grinds my gears that there aren’t more people who understand what your saying, even though its nothing more than simple common sense based on a knowledge of the game, but those same people go out there and make some of the most ignorant decisions, then try to rationalize them by using arguments that make little sense.
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My point is... There are pitchers who still get outs despite experiencing fatigue or a change in mechanics. IMO, this is due to a large extent on luck. Often these pitchers that are done are left in the game due to this luck. The first guy any coach would ask should be the catcher. He is in the best position to know when a pitcher is losing it. The catcher often realizes this even before the pitcher. One of the greatest skills any coach can have is the ability to get the pitcher out of the game before he has completely lost it.
I don’t know if its necessarily luck. There’s a lot of things that take place in baseball that are chalked up to luck, but in reality, even a mediocre pitcher can and often does have success. The game’s just to difficult and too much based on failure to believe that a lousy pitcher will do nothing but give up hit after hit and run after run.
What I think we’re really talking about, is what the difference is between a mediocre pitcher and a top one. Where the mediocre pitcher will get outs, the top pitcher will get them with more regularity. I believe what a coach is trying to do, is keep the top pitchers from losing that edge they have, and that’s why they replace them.
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I don't think the gun is the only answer, but it can be very revealing. It's not a one or two pitch answer, but when a pitcher goes from 90 consistantly to 85-87, something is causing that. When his breaking ball goes from 78 to 73-74, something is causing that. When the changeup differential goes from 12-13 mph to 9-10 or 15-16, something is causing that. These things are near impossible to detect from the dugout. It could be a mechanical problem, it could be fatigue. But after a certain pitch count it is most likely fatigue, even if that fatigue is causing the mechanical problems. At that point it is time to go get the pitcher who has reached the danger zone.
This is only an aside. Pardon me for changing the subject a bit. I recently read an article that said the average difference in a ML pitcher’s FB and CU is 8.1 mph. Of course that means there are some both above and below that number, but it always trips me out that people seem to believe in that magic number 10, never realizing its not the difference on a gun, but the diference in what the batter perceives.
Back to the thread, you’ve made a great point, and IMHO its something that should be stressed because it isn’t understood. Just because someone’s in the dugout, it doesn’t mean they have the best perspective for all things.
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Once again I think too much is made of the actual pitch count. Different pitchers reach this danger zone at different pitch counts IMO. Nolan Ryan could (and did) throw more pitches than anyone in baseball history. He also threw those pitches as hard as most anyone in history. Most people can't do that, he was different.
I agree. But given the difficulty of understanding when a pitcher should give up the ball, I’d much rather err on the side of safety. That’s what goes on in the MiL. It happens because the manager wouldn’t keep his job very long if he wrecked many million dollar arms by overuse. They now lean toward protection in the lower level youth leagues by having instituted rules for the one thing they can control. Pitch counts.
In HS’s, even though many of today’s coaches have been well schooled in the underlying thinking about pitch counts, there are still some hard-headed dinos out there, and some coaches who really don’t know much about it. But the great thing about it is, it actually seems to have become much less of an issue than ever before. I think much of that comes from when LL Inc implemented mandatory pitch counts a few years back, and almost all HS coaches were “in the game” in some form or other.
Remember when it 1st was talked about and many believed it would be the doom of the game. In fact what happened was. The game changed very littler, and some of those changes were very good, the main one being that more pitchers had to be developed.
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I don't know what the perfect pitch count (per game or per inning) for any individual pitcher is. The only real safe pitch count is ZERO. I'm sure we would all agree that the kid who threw 177 pitches was fatigued and probably deep into the danger zone. That seems abusive and when a starting pitcher throws without sufficient recovery time, that is also abusive.
The thing is, just like there’s a “magic number” for most pitchers when it comes to velocity, there’s a magic number for most pitchers when it comes to pitch counts. But it’s the same for both in that without some history to use to make the judgments, its all a guess. Here’s a link to the pitchers on the teams I’ve scored for over the years. These are metrics I make available to everyone after ever game, not to get anyone all stirred up, but rather to just keep this topic in front of them. But how many people do anything like it?
What I really was hoping to do with it was to get games outside of the HS season too, so that the totality of each player’s workload was seen, but to be honest, people don’t want to know!
http://www.infosports.com/scor.../images/4pgstaff.pdfquote:
Good discussion, many very good points. It reminds me of a discussion we had with a bunch of old buddies. What is normal? After a long debate we pretty much all agreed... None of us have ever known a person we could describe as normal.
Its always good to exchange information and ideas! That’s the only way change, either for the better or worse takes place.