Exit Velo Question

I’ll take a stab at the question….but honestly there are too many variables to give a concise answer.

From my experience with this age group 75 is about middle of the road for a EV with wood and/or BBCOR off a tee.  It really comes down to bat speed, and like it or not size and strength helps with that. As long as you have a decent swing. Just be aware that I’ve  seen my share of cage warriors light up the numbers, but can’t hit $@&! when it really matters.

Put your energy into your son learning to be a good player and doing the things that help win games. Not chasing numbers like exit velo - which is the most irrelevant of all metrics.

Be careful about projecting. When my son was fourteen he was 5’4” 120. He was hitting the ball extremely hard for a kid his size. I told him when he grows he’ll hit some balls out of sight. At his small size he poled a couple of homers at 310. The next year at 5’11” 135 I had to talk to him about over swinging. I told him he had to fill out, get more upper body strength and let it come naturally. Just keep swinging hard in control. Just keep working on being better tomorrow than today.

My kid can hit >100 mph off a tee and it makes great dugout banter/braggadocio with the other daddy hacking knuckleheads, social media boasting but nada for his recruiting. Swing looks awful and I can make him wiff on flips in the cage with those daddy-crying hacks.   Kid's soon to be college coach was pleased to see him make hard oppo contact on outside pitches. Imho if a batter can make consistent hard hit barrels when he/she is early and late, the EV/metrics will support they are outstanding hitters.

@2022NYC posted:

My kid can hit >100 mph off a tee and it makes great dugout banter/braggadocio with the other daddy hacking knuckleheads, social media boasting but nada for his recruiting. Swing looks awful and I can make him wiff on flips in the cage with those daddy-crying hacks.   Kid's soon to be college coach was pleased to see him make hard oppo contact on outside pitches. Imho if a batter can make consistent hard hit barrels when he/she is early and late, the EV/metrics will support they are outstanding hitters.

100% correct. You sir, are one of the few that has the horse in front of the cart. Coaches want to see consistent hard contact in game situations. If that occurs the numbers will follow. Players should be chasing game results - not numbers in a practice setting.

Is that velo on live BP or on a tee? I get wanting to know where your kid stacks up against his peers, but as others have mentioned if you focus on other things like getting stronger and consistently finding the barrel the exit velo will take care of itself.

BP. I’m 100% in agreement that you need to perform and square balls up in live games for EV to matter at all. I think 75 EV in BP is maybe a little above average for his age and size from what I can tell. I’m pretty confident my kid has excellent bat to ball skills. I guess what I’m trying to gauge is 75 EV in BP in the ballpark for a jump to 90+ With added size/strength by summer following Junior high school season. I’d be inclined to say no for similar scenario with pitching velocity but I’m not sure if batted EV is different in some way.

I guess what I’m trying to gauge is if he could potentially be a college prospect (maybe upper ex heal on DiII) in the future. If his EV was 65 I’d say probably not. At 75 not sure either the understanding that you never know what can happen.

It's tough to tell until a kid grows. A friend growing up was an awkward lefty who was terrible at best. But he loved the game and kept grinding. I used to catch him in the pen in his yard in exchange for riding his half pipe ramp. Kid didn't make the HS team the first few years. Then he grew to 6'4" and looked like a man. He made it to the majors before an injury cut his career short.

I'd look at his bat speed before anything right now. Someone posted a video here a few weeks back and the first thing I thought was the kid needed a lighter bat. Bat speed will improve control and ability to hit balls on time.

"I think 75 EV in BP is maybe a little above average for his age and size from what I can tell."

I just want to make the a couple points:

#1. It really doesn't matter at this point for your son. @adbono gave you all the advise you need

#2. It is all relative to one's exposure. FYI, one of my sons is the same age as yours. We made it a point to go "out of town" last season and play up against different talent. It was eye opening for some of our kids (and parents) to see what's really out there. Just about everyone we faced was well above 75 off a TEE with WOOD, let alone off BP.

#3. Can a kid go from 75 as a small 14yr old to 90 plus as he matures. The answer is yes. Can your kid do it? The answer is, I don't know. Like I said before, way too many variables. Sometimes the parent needs to look in the mirror and make an honest assessment. Hard work and grit can take you a long way in life, but genetics can't be ignored. Sometimes life just ain't fair....

@BaseballDad72 posted:

BP. I’m 100% in agreement that you need to perform and square balls up in live games for EV to matter at all. I think 75 EV in BP is maybe a little above average for his age and size from what I can tell. I’m pretty confident my kid has excellent bat to ball skills. I guess what I’m trying to gauge is 75 EV in BP in the ballpark for a jump to 90+ With added size/strength by summer following Junior high school season. I’d be inclined to say no for similar scenario with pitching velocity but I’m not sure if batted EV is different in some way.

I guess what I’m trying to gauge is if he could potentially be a college prospect (maybe upper ex heal on DiII) in the future. If his EV was 65 I’d say probably not. At 75 not sure either the understanding that you never know what can happen.

Parents have to stop wondering if there kid will eventually have the potential to play college ball. The kids need to enjoy the game. If a kid wants it (college ball) he will put in the work to get there. It has to be the kid’s motivation.

There’s a point where you will notice whether or not your kid has the potential to play college ball. If he’s an early bloomer stud you will notice at fourteen or fifteen. As long as you notice by seventeen the kid will have a shot to play college ball somewhere.

What a lot of kids and parents don’t realize is college baseball is nothing like high school baseball. High school baseball is practice and games after school. Everything else is optional and on the kid. College baseball is a year round, day long schedule of training and baseball with school and studying mixed in. It’s two full time jobs.

Hi:

Appreciate the general advice but I played DI baseball, so did my father, and my so plays D3 ball right now. I get it.

It’s not for everyone even if they have the ability.

I was looking for more projection/data input, not a tutorial on what it means to play in college or guiding my kid. That’s all good for newbies but that ain’t me. I understand the big picture. I don’t understand the similarities/contrasts of EV and pitching velo projections.

If you played D1 baseball and have a baseball pedigree you should know better than to be concerned about the exit velo of a 14 year old.

Not sure if this helps. My son has three PBR measurements. At 16 his max EV was 85. At 17 it was 90 and at 18 it was105 (hit a HR 98mph oppo at the same event). Not sure what 14 would have looked like. For reference he grew 4 inches and gained 50 pounds between 16 and 18 so frame has a lot to do with the increases.

Predicting your son's size and ability after puberty is not possible over a message board.  It's also something you can't really control. It's possible 75 can become 90.  It's also possible it won't.  If he loves the game, encourage him and enjoy the moment.  You are wondering what level of college ball a 14year old will play   it doesn't matter.  Not yet.  Dont skip over now trying to get to tomorrow because you will miss something amazing happening with your son right now.

Another q to the OP, how is your kid's approach at the plate? Does he have a good game plan, is he working on Bob's 6th tool?  For a long time my kid, with 0 strikes he would take a mother of all hacks at a pitch in his wheelhouse. The result was usually a 1st strike, an out or a cheap hit. The shot to the next zip code never happened and many times the whiff looked over the top comical and I would see the dugout/base coaches groan. 

BaseballDad72

Fast forward to age 18 now your son playing College Baseball. He is not in the 9 inning game at Western Michigan home field.

Suddenly, the Coach said " hit for Joe". Joe has 2 strikes and returns to the bench. Game is tied.

The pitcher thinks the new hitter is "cold" and throws a "fast ball".

The ball ends up on the train track beyond the left field for the game winning HR.

Naturally your son while sitting on the bench was preparing for this moment and studied the pitchers patterns and between innings hit "off a tee" to prepare  for "one swing"!

Yes, this is the 6th Tool

Bob

At that point worry about getting stronger and improve you movement patterns and swing.

Batspeed training is good but imo it is better to max out the other stuff first.

And no, batspeed and exit Velo is not irrelevant, it is very important for success but it matters more what you can do against game speed velo and not tee gangsta hacks.

Maybe it would be better for HS prospects scouting to set the machine at 80 and measure EV against that.