quote:
The number of users of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drugs have been trending downward.
In particular, since we are talking children:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6131a1.htmhttp://www.cdc.gov/healthyyout...cohol_trend_yrbs.pdfhttp://www.cdc.gov/healthyyout..._drug_trend_yrbs.pdfSo, yes, long-term trends are showing a decline.
Your source, the CDC, is a Federal Agency under the Dept. of Health and Human Services with a budget of 9.2 billion dollars. The Director is appointed by the President. The current Director, a graduate of Columbia University (as was the President) was the Health Commissioner for New York City.
When it comes to collecting data, the CDC is a direct arm of the Office of the President used to validate policies and justify budgetary decisions for funding programs that fit the ideology of the President. Therefore, there is ample reason to look skeptically at figures developed by the CDC especially regarding the effectiveness of anti smoking campaigns on children.
I say especially anti smoking because the current Director is famous for his war on smoking in the City of New York, where as Health Commissioner under Mayor Michael Bloomberg he waged war on smoking primarily by banning the practice where possible and taxing it excessively in order to persuade adults to quit.
Even if you accept the statistics, and there is certainly reason not to, the methodology of data collection is questionable.
quote:
NYTS is a school-based, self-administered, pencil-and-paper questionnaire given to middle school (grades 6–8) and high school (grades 9–12) students to collect information on key tobacco control outcome indicators used to monitor the impact of comprehensive tobacco control policies and programs (e.g., prevalence of tobacco use and smoking cessation, tobacco-related knowledge and attitudes, access to tobacco, exposure to tobacco advertising and promotions, and secondhand smoke exposure).*
What reasons would a middle schooler and high schooler have to answer these types of questions inaccurately? Disinterest....fear.....or perhaps the most at risk population is the one that doesn't regularly attend school and is least likely to participate in any testing let alone one for the government.
But let's say the statistics are accurate. Let's say the smoking campaign has achieved the astounding results documented. What are we to make of this sentence that was slipped in without further comment?
quote:
A recent report indicated that the total consumption of cigarettes decreased by 32.8% from 2000 to 2011, whereas noncigarette combustible tobacco, which includes cigars and loose tobacco, increased by 123%.
One might believe that the problem is not being solved, it is simply finding a different outlet. What about the use of smokeless tobacco (snuff - dip) or marijuana?
The final resource you posted shows that there has been an increase or no change from 2009-2011 in marijuana, cocaine or other illegal drug use. No decreases in those two years.
No trends. I'm not drinking the cool aide. The government and social programs can't stop drug abuse, can't stop alcohol abuse, and it won't stop obesity. It's like Smokey Bear always said, "Only
You can prevent forest fires."