Good counts for stealing/stealing strategy

Best pitch to run on is anything off speed. So curveball, changeup counts are the best. This is unless your team uses fake bunts and/or swing through pitch, to protect the runner. In that case it is best to run before the hitter has a strike on him.

It is important to understand what the pitcher throws and when he’s most likely to use breaking balls and change ups. For most pitchers this will be when they’re ahead or even in the count. (0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 2-2). Be careful on 0-2 as many will throw high or outside fast balls on this count. Then you also have the possibility for pitchouts in some of these counts. I wouldn’t worry too much about pitchouts though unless you’re in a very obvious steal situation.

Running teams will run early in the count early in the game to create situations later in the game. Especially if a good curve ball pitcher is throwing. This can create more first pitch fast balls later on. Running teams run for two reasons, the obvious gaining the next base and to create better opportunities for the hitter. Hitters tend to see more fast balls when they're on teams that break stolen base records.

More importantly, time the pitcher to the plate and catchers pop time as often as possible. If you know your runners steal time (you should know this) it becomes a simple math solution. For example: Your runner with a good jump (he should ONLY straight steal with a GOOD jump) is 3.5 to 2B on a steal. The catchers best appears to be 2.00 and the pitcher has a slow 1.6 time to the plate. It’s a sure bag unless your runner stumbles! Don’t need to worry about the pitch. Don’t even have to worry about pitchout.

birdsondabat:

As usual PGStaff has excellent advice. I would only add a couple of ideas that may be slightly off topic but, hopefully, helpful for a coach of a 13 under team.

Make certain that the first runner to reach first base forces the pitcher to throw over to first so all your players can see his move from the stretch to the plate and to first. My experience with that age group is that when they see the move to first, it usually gives them more confidence to take a good lead when they get on base in the same situation. Lefthanded pitchers are especially tricky but many of them give away where they are going [home or first] in advance of their actual release of the baseball by the position of their front foot in relationship to the imaginary straight balk/no balk line between the pitchers knee/foot and the front edge of first base when he raises his front leg off the mound.

Running on the first pitch does have some advantages, at least for the first time you do it [after you have seen some throwovers, of course]. The batter, if he is either taking the pitch or swinging to miss the pitch [only if it is an obvious strike IMHO], will have only one strike after the successful steal in the worst case situation. But I would not make a habit of it because then you will likely see pitchouts on the first pitch to the next batter after your runner arrives at first.

Also, don't give up on stealing third in certain situations. Some pitchers seem to forget the runner on second or, conversely, some middle infielders want to play their position more than holding the runner on. Successfully stealing third one time will usually result in both middle infielders playing close to second base when a runner is on the next time and that creates more gaps in the infield defense between first and second and second and third for ground ball hits through the infield.

IMHO that is the great thing about this game. An adjustment to solve one problem almost always creates an opportunity for the opposing team to exploit that adjustment if they are smart/flexible/skilled enough to do it. I loved coaching third base. Good luck and enjoy the talent you have to work with.

TW344

Get to know your competition and chart everything that they do. Then, you'll know how that coach thinks and know what they are going to do ahead or behind in the counts. Then you can form a strategy. It doesn't help much for this year but if you keep a good filing system, it will really help in the future.

Also, teach your players to read the pitcher. I have seen some players with just average speed be excellent base stealers. They read the pitcher well & get a great jump.

It is amazing how predictable some pitchers can be.

Recently saw a pitcher who was a "one look" pitcher. One look was all he ever gave the runner, followed by a slight pause and then the deliver. And if he tried to pick it was before he looked. Savvy baserunner, but with average speed, on first. Pitcher looked and the runner then took off. Even though the catcher had a good arm & quick release, and the batter didn't swing, the runner was easily safe.