Grading players

First of all, hitting a few line drives in BP is nowhere near enough to grade someone a 60. It could cause a scout to note he looks like a 60, but most scouts will not actually grade until they have seen the hitter hit against live pitching. The grade would be based on many things besides results. A hitter I graded very high a few years back never hit a ball out of the infield while I saw him. Raw power is one area where it does help to see how far the ball travels. But it’s not always necessary to actually see it, to know it is, or will be, there.

To answer your other question… yes, grades can change based on what the scout saw that day. Grades can also change from one scout to another, both watching the same thing.

Grading is done based on the scouts opinion of a player/hitters ability. All things that pertain to ability and potential are taken into account. Usually there will be 2 grades –one for present ability and one for future potential.

To me… hitting ability is the toughest thing to grade accurately. There are too many variables and usually not enough appearances in the right situations. Every once in awhile, there does seem to be that, somewhat sure shot, above average hitter. Power, speed and arm are the easiest to grade. I think most scouts would agree.

Thanks.
Whenever I read scouting reports on minor league prospects, what sticks out is that most of them they say already have plus arms and defense. Are there actually very few minor leaguers who already have plus hitting tools?

Mr3000,

If you took every minor league player and looked back at how they were graded before signing a professional contract, you more than likely will see the following…

Running grade – Fairly accurate with some who might actually drop some because some players tend to lose a little speed as they get bigger and older. Running (future potential) grade is seldom higher than the present grade.

Fielding grade – Fairly accurate with a few that improve because of playing everyday. Fielding (future potential) grade will usually be higher than present grade.

Power grade – Fairly accurate, but with some who improve a lot because they get stronger and/or develop a better swing. It is not unusual to see a low “power” graded player as an amateur turn into a home run hitter in the Big Leagues. Power is one area where the higher grades are usually accurate, but the lower grades can improve the most. Power (future potential) grade is most often higher (sometimes much higher) than present grade.

Arm grade – Fairly accurate with some fluctuation both ways. Of course, injury can play a part in future. High present grade usually stays that way, but some actually improve. Arm (future potential) is often higher than present grade, but seldom does a low graded arm become a high graded arm.

Hitting grade – Accurate at times, but it’s my opinion that more mistakes (both ways) are made on grading this tool than all the others combined. That’s too bad because many would say this is the most important tool now days. It’s just hard to grade a high school, or even college, hitter based on MLB averages.

You can compare running speed, arm strength, and even power and fielding ability to major league standards and be reasonably accurate. Comparing an amateur hitter to MLB standards is tough! There are things to look for like bat speed, quickness, the swing itself, hand/eye coordination (ability to center), strength, rhythm, balance, etc., that help you grade an amateur hitter. However, you can simply time a runner (60 yd or H-1) and the amateur is running the same distance as the Major Leaguer. Arm strength, whether it’s a gun reading, carry, accuracy, distance, etc. is the same as a major leaguer. Likewise for power and to a certain extent fielding because of distance, time measurements, hands, feet, etc., but in hitting there are no real comparisons to hitting Major League pitching unless you see a hitter hit against a high graded amateur pitcher and even then there are so many other variables.

IMO, here is how I rank the toughest to grade accurately to the easiest:

1 – Hitting
2 – Fielding
3 – Power
4 – Throw
5 – Run

Throw and run are physical skills for the most part. So is power for the most part. Fielding is mostly physical ability but has elements of mental ability. Hitting might be as much mental as it is physical making it the toughest to predict. Easier to predict the future on physical potential than mental potential. Those with the best make up become even more important when predicting mental potential.

These are just my personal opinions. I know some scouts who disagree with me. To me the future grade is more important than the present grade, but it’s also the toughest to get right. The better the scout, the more often he gets it right. Most anyone can figure out who is the most talented today, the scouts need to figure out who will be the best 4-5 or more years from now. Physical projection in addition to everything else plays a big part in predicting the future. The less physical projection, the closer present day and future potential grades will be.

I could go on for ever, about this stuff, but it would probably just bore most people. Some things in scouting are universally agreed upon. But there is also the individual thinking that takes the “science” of scouting and turns it into the “art” of scouting. Grading is a combination of both sometimes, but a 6 arm is a 6 arm, give or take a little, to most all scouts.

Well this isn't boring me, I find it quite neat actually.
I can't quite understand how fielding is tough to grade. Is it because at lower levels the hitters don't hit the ball to you as hard, and because most of the fields were once army trenches giving you massive bad hops? This one field I use to play on, it was impossible as an outfielder to come up gunning fielding the ball with one hand. It was hard enough to smoothly catch a slow roller with two hands, so I'd say it's probably impossible to grade someone's glove in those conditions.
And I came across this page the other day, a scouting report on former Jays and now D-Rays catcher Kevin Cash: http://www.baseballhq.com/m_futures.shtml



In his career he's played 114, hit 7 homers and hit .172, which in my opinion is pretty bd for someone with contact and power grades of 50/55.
So either this report is inaccurate, or Cash just has a ton of holes in his swing that pitcher's have exposed. Which brings to my question, do your tools reflect your performance (would a contact grade of 50 produce around a .265 Avg)? Or does there need to be some kind of connection between grades and performance? Thanks PG. And you have a PM.

I got to follow Kevin Cash for awhile.
Interesting story, I think, in that he was a 3rd baseman for Florida Sate. He was fortunate to be part of a team that went to Omaha and was an all conference in the ACC.

Draft came and did not get picked. Played on the Cape and was signed as an FA.

Scout asked him to move behind the plate and was given a lot of opportunity to succeed with the bat but seemed to struggle as he moved up the ladder.

But how does someone who's every tool is 50 or better except for speed, have a hard time moving up the ladder?

The tools are important, but there is much more involved with reaching the top. The Atlanta Braves are one of many teams who place equal or more importance on make up. Maybe that is why we see things happen like last year when all those young rookies contributed to the Braves division championship.

The mental part of the game eats up a lot of talented players. Then there are injuries, personal problems, the life style, etc. that can get in the way. And yes, sometimes the 50-60 graded hitter just doesn’t turn out correct. Another example of hitting being the toughest to grade accurately. Now days, very few position players who don’t hit… reach the promised land.

Sometimes scouts, even the best of them are just wrong in their evaluations.

"He'll never make anything more than a Triple A ballplayer at best."

This was said by Branch Rickey. He had just signed Joe Garagiola for the maximum signing bonus of $500. He offerred another catcher $250 thinking he would be a good minor league filler.

That catcher turned down the offer.

That catcher was Yogi Berra.

Yeah I definately think the mental part can eat you up even you have the tools. That's a great story of Yogi Berra. On the opposite end of that spectrum I played with this SS who had good fielding tools: decent glove with a good arm and even better accuracy. He had some pop in his bat but wasn't that good a contact hitter. The year I played with him, I couldn't believe this guy had a scholarship to a college/university in one of the Carolinas. He didn't seem to wanna play, he'd bum around during practices, not throwing half as hard as he could, he's get pretty angry after he struck out. He never talked much, but when he did he didn't say too many positive things. The guy just had a rotten attitude.
Life style and your upbringing probably holds you back as well. I didn't have even a half-decent time growing up, and usually rather than practicing, I'd goof around in my backyard, or play videogames. That's changed around for me, and since I been getting better mentally I've become alot better skilled. Maybe those skills were there before, they were probably just covered by my home life.

There are two kinds of athletes in any sport. There is the athlete who is just happy to participate and there is the athlete who wishes to excell.

Tools are tools. They can be measured, observed but only be speculated upon as having the ability and possibility to advance in that sport.

Some athletes who excell are given preferential treatment and become prima donnas. The earlier this happens, the worse for that player.

The mental aspects that eliminate many players who make it to the minor leagues are varied.

There is first the fact that many players are away from home for the first time.

There is the situation that places the player among peple who he has to become acquainted with and find his/her social circle.

There is the dog eat dog nature of any sport. If you play the same position as another player, you are his/her direct competition for success.

There are the needs of the parent club that dictate opportunity to advance.

There are the financial circumstances that the player may not be familiar with.

Each person will find the adventure differently and it will be determined if they can meet the challenges and demands of that adventure.