Here we go again FB velocity CWS

2019Dad posted:

But the majority of kids -- in fact about 70% -- recruited to D1s as pitchers have no documented 90 mph velo in high school. Of course, if you ask their dads . . . 

As good as PG is, PG doesn't show every kid in the nation, and for the others, they may have thrown 90 in front of a college and not in a PG tourney when they had to start a game. 

Plus kids in college get faster as they get bigger, stronger and focus on pitching drills/instruction every day.  Most kids from smaller high schools have never done intense weight training, or daily long toss, etc.

https://fivetool.org/category/...r-five-tool-90-club/   Hello dad's and others, here is a list of kids this organization calls the "90 club" don't know if many have heard of them, v tool hosts tournaments in many regions around the country. This list of kidss goes back to May 2018 and I counted 98 touched 90 and joined the club. Mainly from Texas, so prolly missing Fla and Cali kids. Not a lot of arms for 300 D1s. Sorry I looked a little closer and found some jucos on the list as well.

RJM posted:

I attended D3 regional a couple of weekends ago. On Friday a kid throwing 80 with great command threw a great game to upset a top ranked team. Unbelievably, he started again on Sunday. Whether I agree or not (not) I’m sure the strategy was to go as far as possible due to lack of depth on the pitching staff. 

Had I been a college kid playing I could have used one of my old favorite rags on pitchers. “ Wipe the damn ball off. Flies are landing on it on the way to the plate.” The kid was fatigued. He had to be 70-75. Let’s just say on Sunday he ruined his weekend stat line.

I hope he was a senior. If not coach is both an idiot and an ass. 

JCG posted:

RJM posted:

I attended D3 regional a couple of weekends ago. On Friday a kid throwing 80 with great command threw a great game to upset a top ranked team. Unbelievably, he started again on Sunday. Whether I agree or not (not) I’m sure the strategy was to go as far as possible due to lack of depth on the pitching staff. 

Had I been a college kid playing I could have used one of my old favorite rags on pitchers. “ Wipe the damn ball off. Flies are landing on it on the way to the plate.” The kid was fatigued. He had to be 70-75. Let’s just say on Sunday he ruined his weekend stat line.

I hope he was a senior. If not coach is both an idiot and an ass. 

The kid was a 5’7” freshman. The head coach pitched for a P5 and made it to AAA. I’m guessing he was trying to make his mark as a first year head coach taking a mediocre team further than it should have gone. He could draw attention and move on. After a .500 season they won their conference playoffs and their region as a four seed. They upset a top ranked team twice.

RJM posted:

For all the years I’ve been on this board I’ve never seen anyone post every pitcher throws 95. For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1. Are there some exceptions? Sure. But in mid season form most pitchers on top fifty teams are cruising 90. The post season is not the mid season. Quinnipiac is not a top fifty program. 

Why aren't top teams resting their top arms in mid season and keep them fresh for the post season? Isn't a team like florida or vandy deep enough to make the post season with a few more innings of their "B arms"?

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

For all the years I’ve been on this board I’ve never seen anyone post every pitcher throws 95. For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1. Are there some exceptions? Sure. But in mid season form most pitchers on top fifty teams are cruising 90. The post season is not the mid season. Quinnipiac is not a top fifty program. 

Why aren't top teams resting their top arms in mid season and keep them fresh for the post season? Isn't a team like florida or vandy deep enough to make the post season with a few more innings of their "B arms"?

Teams want to win their conference. They also want to be as far up the rankings ladder as possible for the post season. 1-16 host a regional. 1-8 (assuming they win their region) host a Super Series.

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

For all the years I’ve been on this board I’ve never seen anyone post every pitcher throws 95. For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1. Are there some exceptions? Sure. But in mid season form most pitchers on top fifty teams are cruising 90. The post season is not the mid season. Quinnipiac is not a top fifty program. 

Why aren't top teams resting their top arms in mid season and keep them fresh for the post season? Isn't a team like florida or vandy deep enough to make the post season with a few more innings of their "B arms"?

There is no rest in the SEC 

SultanofSwat posted:

2019Dad posted:

But the majority of kids -- in fact about 70% -- recruited to D1s as pitchers have no documented 90 mph velo in high school. Of course, if you ask their dads . . . 

As good as PG is, PG doesn't show every kid in the nation, and for the others, they may have thrown 90 in front of a college and not in a PG tourney when they had to start a game. 

Plus kids in college get faster as they get bigger, stronger and focus on pitching drills/instruction every day.  Most kids from smaller high schools have never done intense weight training, or daily long toss, etc.

As is spelled out in his post, Jerry Ford's estimates addressed the kids they don't see. You can choose to believe his numbers and estimates, or not. I added 100 pitchers per year to be safe. Plus I didn't deduct for the draft, which obviously grabs many of the hardest throwers. Which still leaves 70% not having thrown 90 in high school (of course many throw harder in college).

Anyway, my post was in response to a quote that said "For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1." I understand the sentiment, but I think it overstates things. 

adbono posted:

There is no rest in the SEC 

That’s a fact.  

At the risk of thread drift, that Duke - Vandy game was remarkable. To top it off, the Duke starting pitcher, who got the win, is a graduate transfer from Princeton, the left fielder, who homered and tripled, is a graduate transfer from Cornell, and the right fielder, who went 3-5 with a triple, is a freshman unrecruited walk-on.

Wow, great stories.

Did the whistler maintain his composure when that 10 spot got dropped?

He kept whistling the entire time. 

2019Dad posted:

As is spelled out in his post, Jerry Ford's estimates addressed the kids they don't see. You can choose to believe his numbers and estimates, or not. I added 100 pitchers per year to be safe. Plus I didn't deduct for the draft, which obviously grabs many of the hardest throwers. Which still leaves 70% not having thrown 90 in high school (of course many throw harder in college).

Anyway, my post was in response to a quote that said "For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1." I understand the sentiment, but I think it overstates things. 

That number is more likely 87 than 90. Plenty of kids throwing high 80s with very nice D1 offers to good baseball schools. 85, not so much

PABaseball posted:

2019Dad posted:

As is spelled out in his post, Jerry Ford's estimates addressed the kids they don't see. You can choose to believe his numbers and estimates, or not. I added 100 pitchers per year to be safe. Plus I didn't deduct for the draft, which obviously grabs many of the hardest throwers. Which still leaves 70% not having thrown 90 in high school (of course many throw harder in college).

Anyway, my post was in response to a quote that said "For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1." I understand the sentiment, but I think it overstates things. 

That number is more likely 87 than 90. Plenty of kids throwing high 80s with very nice D1 offers to good baseball schools. 85, not so much

Again, all D1 baseball is not the same. 87 may get D1 attention in the Northeast part of the US.  It won’t in the Southeast and the Southwest unless it is at weaker conferences (like the SWAC). Guys that are in SEC, ACC, Big12, etc. that are below 90 almost always have a special secondary pitch. 

I get so sick and tired of the arrogant dumping on northeast baseball. When Vanderbilt won the national championship their #1, #2 and closer were all from Massachusetts. They were all drafted in the top ten rounds. 

Current Vanderbilt players ...

Dominick Keegan, Massachusetts

Matt Hogan, New York

Pat DeMarco, New York

Juston Willis, New Jersey

Jqckson Gillis, Massachusetts

Justin Henry-Malloy, New Jersey

Why would these players be on Vanderbilt when all they have to do is recruit in the south? There are a lot of players in the northeast who head for better conferences and better weather than is available to them in the northeast. 

Simply stating the facts. Baseball in the Northeast isn’t as good as in the sunshine states at the D1 level.  That’s why the best players from the Northeast tend not to stay there to play college baseball. Last time I checked Texas, Florida & California weren’t producing a lot of good hockey players. 

It doesn’t mean there aren’t a lot of good players relative to the population. Most of the best leave the area due to the weather. 

The debate I have with Boston College parents is its next to impossible for BC to compete in the ACC. Most of the best players leave the area. It leaves them with mostly second tier players from the area and second tier players from the south looking for a backdoor into the ACC.

On a couple of occasions over the past ten years BC developed pitchers that allowed them to make a post season run. From the team that made the Super Series about three years ago are two pitchers successfully working their way through the minors. 

RJM posted:

I get so sick and tired of the arrogant dumping on northeast baseball. When Vanderbilt won the national championship their #1, #2 and closer were all from Massachusetts. They were all drafted in the top ten rounds. 

Current Vanderbilt players ...

Dominick Keegan, Massachusetts

Matt Hogan, New York

Pat DeMarco, New York

Juston Willis, New Jersey

Jqckson Gillis, Massachusetts

Justin Henry-Malloy, New Jersey

Why would these players be on Vanderbilt when all they have to do is recruit in the south? There are a lot of players in the northeast who head for better conferences and better weather than is available to them in the northeast. 

Didn't trout fall to late first round because he came from the  NY area and some scouts thought he didn't face good competition?

Btw I somewhere heard the argument it might be good to draft northern pitchers because of less milage on the arm but that was just a theory (I think from the "the arm" book)

There are some outstanding players from the northeast. Many just head south for the weather, top tier programs and top tier conferences. 

Dominik85 posted:

RJM posted:

I get so sick and tired of the arrogant dumping on northeast baseball. When Vanderbilt won the national championship their #1, #2 and closer were all from Massachusetts. They were all drafted in the top ten rounds. 

Current Vanderbilt players ...

Dominick Keegan, Massachusetts

Matt Hogan, New York

Pat DeMarco, New York

Juston Willis, New Jersey

Jqckson Gillis, Massachusetts

Justin Henry-Malloy, New Jersey

Why would these players be on Vanderbilt when all they have to do is recruit in the south? There are a lot of players in the northeast who head for better conferences and better weather than is available to them in the northeast. 

Didn't trout fall to late first round because he came from the  NY area and some scouts thought he didn't face good competition?

Btw I somewhere heard the argument it might be good to draft northern pitchers because of less milage on the arm but that was just a theory (I think from the "the arm" book)

Trout is from South Jersey. It’s metro Philadelphia. He played summer ball for Arsenal, a national program. He also made the regional Area Code team. Given he was committed to East Carolina and not a major conference program maybe the Angels got lucky. Besides, with a handful of exceptions how does any team know a player will become a superstar? ECU has been a mid major program on the rise that finally hosted a regional this year.