85 in the Northeast will get you D1 offers.
adbono posted:PABaseball posted:2019Dad posted:As is spelled out in his post, Jerry Ford's estimates addressed the kids they don't see. You can choose to believe his numbers and estimates, or not. I added 100 pitchers per year to be safe. Plus I didn't deduct for the draft, which obviously grabs many of the hardest throwers. Which still leaves 70% not having thrown 90 in high school (of course many throw harder in college).
Anyway, my post was in response to a quote that said "For the most part if a pitcher doesn’t max 90 in a showcase he’s not going D1." I understand the sentiment, but I think it overstates things.
That number is more likely 87 than 90. Plenty of kids throwing high 80s with very nice D1 offers to good baseball schools. 85, not so much
Again, all D1 baseball is not the same. 87 may get D1 attention in the Northeast part of the US. It won’t in the Southeast and the Southwest unless it is at weaker conferences (like the SWAC). Guys that are in SEC, ACC, Big12, etc. that are below 90 almost always have a special secondary pitch.
I never mentioned geography. But...
I just went on PG and the first SEC school has 2 2020s throwing 90. The rest are 89 or lower. Clemson has 2 guys throwing 90, the rest are 86-88. Looked up four more tournament teams, including a Tx school and the split between guys above 90 and guys below 90 is mostly even.
The SEC and ACC also overlap in territory. But that is still only one part of the country. To say you have to throw 90 to play SEC ball might be more accurate, but to say that you have to throw 90 to play D1 baseball is not really all that true. Yes 87 will get more attention in the northeast, but it will still get attention in Ga, Tx, FL, etc. There is still good baseball outside of the SEC, ACC and Big 12. I know those are the top 3 conferences, but there are way more non power schools than there are.
nycdad posted:85 in the Northeast will get you D1 offers.
In the MAAC and America East. It won’t get a pitcher to BC or UConn.
Keep in mind, there is a huge difference between P5 schools and mid-majors/low D1's in what is available to them, recruiting-wise. At CSUN, a middle-of-the-road Big West school last year, we had ONE guy who could routinely sit 91/92 and he was out with a torn ucl by early March. The best starting pitcher, a lefty, rarely topped 82, sat 78-81. He was good and, in fact, shut out CS-Fullerton in his last start. The other starters sat 84/85 (never saw him above 88) and 86/88 (could occasionally hit a 90 or 91). Our closer was 81/82. There were a number of middle reliever who were sitting 78-82. Honestly, I was shocked. This was pretty common in the other Big West schools as well. A lot of guys throwing 84-87 and a handful sitting 89-91. There just aren't as many of those big arms as it seems when all you watch is P5 baseball. They just all seem to be concentrated in a fairly small number of conferences.
You don't have to be 90 to get to SEC but you better have stuff to stay there. My son never hit 90 at PG but is lefty with great command and 3 offspeed pitches that he throws at any point. He also knows he will have to work hard to get into rotation at his SEC school. They have a lefty throwing 96 plus. But they are two totally different pitchers. I believe as I have said there are two types of pitchers. Flame throwers and dart throwers and teams need both. But if you are neither, you will struggle pitching P5. There are the niche pitchers who throw submarine or completely junk guys but they are very few.
It is still being seen by the right guy at the right time against the right team if you are not 93 plus. It is easy for every PC to think they can take a guy who is mid 90's and make him a pitcher who throws for strikes.
Dominik85 posted:RJM posted:I get so sick and tired of the arrogant dumping on northeast baseball. When Vanderbilt won the national championship their #1, #2 and closer were all from Massachusetts. They were all drafted in the top ten rounds.
Current Vanderbilt players ...
Dominick Keegan, Massachusetts
Matt Hogan, New York
Pat DeMarco, New York
Juston Willis, New Jersey
Jqckson Gillis, Massachusetts
Justin Henry-Malloy, New Jersey
Why would these players be on Vanderbilt when all they have to do is recruit in the south? There are a lot of players in the northeast who head for better conferences and better weather than is available to them in the northeast.
Didn't trout fall to late first round because he came from the NY area and some scouts thought he didn't face good competition?
Btw I somewhere heard the argument it might be good to draft northern pitchers because of less milage on the arm but that was just a theory (I think from the "the arm" book)
"Alex, I'll take things scouts say for $200"
Here's another one a scout said to me directly.
"How tall is your son?"
"5'11"
"Nobody is 5'11. If we like him, he's 6'0". If we don't, he's 5'10"."
Steve Garvey was listed as 5’11”. My (ex) wife and I were at an event he attended. She was eye to eye with him in flats. She’s 5’8”.
RJM posted:Steve Garvey was listed as 5’11”. My (ex) wife and I were at an event he attended. She was eye to eye with him in flats. She’s 5’8”.
But those forearms....
Went to the NTHSBCA All Star game last night. These are top velos and the kids sat 2-3 mph below. 1 90 mph, 1 89 mph, 2 88 mph. Rest were low to mid 80s. Total of 16 pitchers most threw 1 inn. SEC, Big 12, Mid Major D1s represented. Gotta think the kids are gassed after a long HS season of 60-70 inns.
roothog66 posted:Keep in mind, there is a huge difference between P5 schools and mid-majors/low D1's in what is available to them, recruiting-wise. At CSUN, a middle-of-the-road Big West school last year, we had ONE guy who could routinely sit 91/92 and he was out with a torn ucl by early March. The best starting pitcher, a lefty, rarely topped 82, sat 78-81. He was good and, in fact, shut out CS-Fullerton in his last start. The other starters sat 84/85 (never saw him above 88) and 86/88 (could occasionally hit a 90 or 91). Our closer was 81/82. There were a number of middle reliever who were sitting 78-82. Honestly, I was shocked. This was pretty common in the other Big West schools as well. A lot of guys throwing 84-87 and a handful sitting 89-91. There just aren't as many of those big arms as it seems when all you watch is P5 baseball. They just all seem to be concentrated in a fairly small number of conferences.
Wow. The top 13u travel team here in GA has 2 kids (a righty and lefty) who sits at 78 to 80 for 4 to 7 innings, and tops out at 81-82. Another top 13u GA team has a lefty that also sits at 80. I'm guessing barring an injury, those kids are shoo-in for a D1 school?
atlnon posted:roothog66 posted:Keep in mind, there is a huge difference between P5 schools and mid-majors/low D1's in what is available to them, recruiting-wise. At CSUN, a middle-of-the-road Big West school last year, we had ONE guy who could routinely sit 91/92 and he was out with a torn ucl by early March. The best starting pitcher, a lefty, rarely topped 82, sat 78-81. He was good and, in fact, shut out CS-Fullerton in his last start. The other starters sat 84/85 (never saw him above 88) and 86/88 (could occasionally hit a 90 or 91). Our closer was 81/82. There were a number of middle reliever who were sitting 78-82. Honestly, I was shocked. This was pretty common in the other Big West schools as well. A lot of guys throwing 84-87 and a handful sitting 89-91. There just aren't as many of those big arms as it seems when all you watch is P5 baseball. They just all seem to be concentrated in a fairly small number of conferences.
Wow. The top 13u travel team here in GA has 2 kids (a righty and lefty) who sits at 78 to 80 for 4 to 7 innings, and tops out at 81-82. Another top 13u GA team has a lefty that also sits at 80. I'm guessing barring an injury, those kids are shoo-in for a D1 school?
Well, you also have to be able to, you know, get batters out at the college level. The guy sitting high 70's/low 80's proved himself by dominating at the JC level. After a certain point, college coaches are more interested in actually winning with their pitchers than in how fast they can throw.
When they are gambling with their budgets at the high school level, velocity is going to have priority. When looking at transfers, you have an actual track record to look at.
Just left PG National today and of the 20 pitchers today, I don’t think any of them were under 92mph. Multiple were 96-98.
There were I think 7 kids with exit velos over 100 and that was just day one of a 3 day eventful the way to 108. A kid threw 100 mph from the OF. The level of talent is astounding. It’s getting tougher and tougher to be noticed.
baseballhs posted:Just left PG National today and of the 20 pitchers today, I don’t think any of them were under 92mph. Multiple were 96-98.
There were I think 7 kids with exit velos over 100 and that was just day one of a 3 day eventful the way to 108. A kid threw 100 mph from the OF. The level of talent is astounding. It’s getting tougher and tougher to be noticed.
Yeah. Pretty typical for the last few years. Of the 70 or so pitchers there, only a small handful won't be 90+. Of those, some will sign with mlb, a few will go JC in order to go back into the draft next year, and the majority will be at P5 schools. While that's a lot of hard throwers, note that once the P5 schools get theirs, there aren't really THAT many left for mid majors and low D-1's. The better mid-majors will get a lion's share of the left overs and the mid-pack and lower level schools will get a very few.
As to PG National. My son pitched there a couple of years ago and was 89 which put him towards the very bottom, velocity-wise. Interestingly, he mowed through his two innings, getting six swift outs on a total of 11 pitches for two innings. That included two three-pitch K's. This was abnormal in the extreme for him and also not the time you want to be so efficient. It didn't even give him enough pitched to get going with velocity. Per pitch, it was an expensive trip. Lol.
One note on velocity and P5's. Velocity gets your foot in the door, but these guys have to win to keep their jobs. Look at Jackson Rutledge. Kid throws upper 90's and has always been considered a top mlb prospect. However, he had a sub par freshman season at Arkansas and only got 15.2 ip. He had no chance at the starting rotation despite the velo, so he transferred to JC and was a First Round pick this year. Velocity certainly projects in the long term, but college coaches can't look long term.
I think it's just human nature to focus on the outliers -- kid up to 98 yesterday!!! -- and not absorb the whole dataset.
At last year's PG National -- the absolute best of the best -- there were 145 pitchers. Of the 145 pitchers at the event, 45 did not reach 90, and 100 reached 90 or higher. So 31% of the pitchers at last year's PG National did not touch 90. I know Jerry Ford doesn't post here anymore, but I think he has a broader -- and likely more accurate -- view of this topic than any of us do, because he has more data.
Interesting that Auburn’s pitcher topped out at 85 mph vs UNC in the supers....but according to ESPN is sitting 88-89 right now.
Change-Up was 76-79, is now 82....quit chasing velo ESPN...
i will agree that velo is somewhat overspoken about. The effective pitchers this weekend were lefties at 86-91 not the guys who threw 95. I watch with anticipation the lefties who throw 86-89 because that is where my 2019 sits. I've read and heard so much about you have to have velo to be effective in SEC/P5/and so on. Yet I'm amazed that the lefties that have control and multiple pitches are maybe the most effective week in and week out for the long run. There are closers who throw it hard but they cannot go more than a couple of innings. I still hold there is a place for both.
I did not see the lefty who consistently threw 82 from Auburn. I saw him 88-91 the entire time but would take something off his fastball as my son does and it would drop to 82-84 but then jump back up. It is referred by some as mid pitch between the fastball and changeup. You can't live there but you can drop the velo a little and then come back next pitch with the faster version and have success.
I have repeatedly seen LHPs in mid-80s with impeccable command shut down college teams. I have never seen those guys challenge hitters inside; rather, all have lived on the outside. Inside pitches were well inside (out of zone). Many times, those pitchers dominated because the teams faced were primarily right handed batters who were pull happy. A well coached and disciplined team which knows how to go opposite field, which forces the pitcher to actually throw strikes (as opposed to swinging at balls off the plate), did better.
South Carolina had a guy (LHP) in early 2010s who was absolutely awesome and was a very high draft pick who (I believe) was hustled to MLB for a few years. He sat mid-upper 80s with something like 6 pitches.