How do you decide?

justbaseball- Awesome question. I'm really interested in reading some responses here. Hopefully you'll get some really good ones (I think you will). I'm interested in chiming in but I think I'm going to hold off for now and save it for a follow-up.

justbaseball, does this opportunity come with the associated signing bonus of $1,000?

That might make a difference for some in the intriguing dilemma you have described, which is also very real world.

I'm interested in this too. A former teammate of my son's got drafted in the 17th round out of JUCO. He had signed with an SEC team already and decided to go the school route. I think as a senior, you take the shot, but it's got to be harder to decide if you're coming out of JUCO or a junior in a 4 year school.

I'll be following this one for sure.

I think I should have approached this a different way and indicated the signing bonus and MLB scholarship plan could play a major role in the decision. If the bonus is $1,000 and no MLB scholarship plan and our son had one full year or more of college to graduation, the draft/sign option would not be very attractive.

If the college situation was dismal, or as a returning senior the player would return without any financial aid, especially at an expensive institution, that could turn more in favor of signing.

From my perspective, unless there is something about the organization which would make me think differently, a college junior being sent to the AZL or Florida Summer league could well be done with baseball by the start of his college season the following February.  With the ability of a team  to want to challenge their drafted players, especially a  college junior, by assigning them to  short season A ball or  Rookie league ball, an assignment to the AZL or Florida is not any vote of confidence, absent something unique which is not in our fact pattern.

If this were our son and he could return to a decent college situation, be relatively close to graduation with one more year(or done) and not be looking at a heavy debt load, I would support returning to college and taking my chances as a senior sign or free agent.

This is a very personal decision and depends a lot on where the player is attending his last year of college.... is the team willing to pay for him to finish school (MLB scholarship plan) and the amount of the bonus.

 

FYI if a player is told he will be headed to either of the complex leagues, not only will his teammates be out of HS but more will be from Latin American and most don't even speak English well.  Most college guys get placed in the college leagues or low level A so  he should understand that he was drafted most likely to be a teammate for the young Latin prospects.

 

Never tell a scout that you definitely want to sign, this lowers your value. 

 

I don't consider 17th round a later sign, and there are many who get drafted around there and do go onto play in MLB.

 

If I were an advisor I would advise the player to finish his college education and enjoy his last year of college baseball. If it were a HS player I would advise him to go to college.

 

infielddad, I didn't see your post until I posted mine!

 

 

In my scenario, I was talking about the situation where the signing bonus is small ($1,000-$5,000) and just to be even, lets say no scholarship money either way.  That is, the school was expecting you to leave and the pro team wasn't willing to put $$ out there for that.

 

While this scenario hasn't happened to either of our sons, I believe it has to college juniors I have known.  I was a little worried about it happening to our younger son this year (he wasn't drafted and the coaches accounted for that, so it did not) and I honestly do not know what we would have done.  I'll say more about that later.

 

I guess I'll also ask, what is the 'tipping point' in terms of an offer in this scenario where you think you would advise your son to take it?

I honestly don't know the answer as these questions are so personal. but a couple of points. 1) You are only in college once, it is a singular experience in life, enjoy it. In general you can always play pro-ball* 2) Go where you are loved and wanted. 3) If you are really good enough to make the MLB, you will - no matter when you are taken, if not well the answer is self evident anyway. 

 

*Injuries and bad seasons can really affect this. I have seen some of my son's friend drop quite a bit after 3 years of college, or in some cases not get drafted. 

 

This scenario happened to us.  Son was drafted as a pitcher in a late round last year as a junior.  He decided to return to college and graduated this spring with a degree and was all conference catcher.  He was not redrafted.  He was bummed he didn't even get a free agent call, but he had a great senior year and a great college career.  He went to 2 regionals in a row, a first for his college, was voted captain of his team, was top ten in all offensive categories in his D1 conference except BA. He loved his teammates and they loved and respected him.  He returned to the college wood bat team he played for for 3 years and they welcomed him back as a coach.  He was making plans to return to school to get his masters and be a grad asst. with the Baseball team (he would get free tuition as a grad asst.), but he was really missing playing.  I think he would have done the same thing even if  he knew he wouldn't get drafted.  Senior year is a special time you can't get back again and being drafted so low he would have had a tough road to hoe.  But you never know how things will turn out.  He wasn't even recruited out of High school and spent his first year in JC , had a great year and had several good offers and chose a good solid mid major D1.  Today traveling to an away game with his wood bat team he got a call with an offer to play in Europe.  By this time next week he should be there, what a great thing for a 21 year old kid.  Have faith.

3) If you are really good enough to make the MLB, you will - no matter when you are taken

Not trying to pick on you whatsoever, but I do not believe this comment to be true.  Just based on my own novice observation and opinions though.

 

I believe there are some draft picks that are never really given a chance.  Especially the ones who are cut loose quickly.

Simply one of the best and most revealing posts I've read in some time.  Thank you SO MUCH for sharing that story.  It is SO informative for all of us.

 

You - 'can-o-corn' are my nominee for hsbaseballweb "all star" today!  

Can-of-corn was much more eloquent than I could ever be regarding the experience of college.Minor league ball is not college ball by a long shot.  Great post!

 

No offense taken justbaseball, but IMO there is a reason for kids being cut when they are, baseball is a tough business and you perform or you are gone, another season is not likely going to change the end result.Sure there are advantages to being "invested in" by a team but the reality is that unless you are a high draft pick you are not going to play MLB baseball, for every Mike Piazza there are 10,000 cuts. 

Sure there are advantages to being "invested in" by a team but the reality is that unless you are a high draft pick you are not going to play MLB baseball, for every Mike Piazza there are 10,000 cuts. 

Am I reading this wrong or is this in conflict with your other comments?  Just confused, thats all.  I'm probably just being dense - wouldn't be the first time.  

I agree with every word justbaseball has written 100%

 

 

Since my son chose to be a pro ballplayer rather than a college student, I wish he would have signed as a junior.  He was offered 39,000 to sign as a junior and he ended up getting 5,000 as a senior sign the following year.  Right now, the money issue is almost irrelevant.  If he would have signed as a junior, he would be months away from becoming a free agent.  As it stands, he is still locked up for one more year.  I don't know what the future holds, but the way he has been treated in the minor leagues (since being traded), it feels like it might be better to be a free agent.

 

One thing about staying in college, if money is not much of an issue, it gives the player one extra year to mature and looked after by people who care.  It helped my son coming back that final year but I am still not sure what path (leaving or staying) is better.

When I was in high school I asked Lenny Merullo **, a scout with the Cubs at the time why there were sixty rounds to the draft. He said it was so the twenty prospects have teammates. He added they do make mistakes and there are late bloomers. He winked at me and said, "Son, go to college."

 

So if a kid is a late round pick he's a real long shot to make it. It seems to me it would be better to stay in college for three reasons. 1) The opportunity to raise the value of his stock senior year, 2) college is a great experience versus the minor league grind and being a long shot, and 3) finishing college. Then if the opportunity is still there to turn pro after senior year, great. If not, they're telling the kid something.

 

I realize it's better to be in short season at 21 versus 22. But if a kid is sent to Florida or Arizona he may be in short season ball for two years. It happened to a friend's son who came out of D3. The second year he had a good short season in A ball. But he was released rather than holding on to a 24yo low A level pitcher the following season. 

 

Does anyone know how long picks in the 30's and free agents typically last in the minors? I'll bet it's two years or less. It was the case for the ones I know. 

 

** He's still alive at 97. I saw him on tv last night talking about the Cubs.

"But he was released rather than holding on to a 24yo low A level pitcher the following season. "

 

RJM, While there could be a number of  reasons for the release, the one most likely, from what I have learned,  is not whether he had a good season as a 23 year old in short season A, it is whether  the pitcher did that in a way which projects enough success at a full season level as contrasted with all the other pitchers in the organization. Certainly, both the 23 years of age and short season level would be some reflection of how that pitcher was viewed in the organization. I would think he needed to have the type of season which got him promoted before the end of August for a good short season to be truly meaningful, in terms of projecting the organizations thinking.

Just one guy's guess, though.

INF ... I agree. I didn't go that far with the explanation. The kid threw 93. I'm guessing it was expected he would advance from Florida short season to NY/P short season in one year and to low A the next. Or, from NY/P short season to low A the second year. The net is there was probably an expectation he would finish low A and be ready to move to high A the third season. Plus the Red Sox were loaded with pitching prospects at the lower levels at that time.