How do you know?

My son had a friend that at 11U was a "pudgy"  slugger.  I once saw him knock back  plate of Spaghetti with a side of mashed potatoes.   Sopped up all the gravy and sauce with buttered bread.  That was lunch, he really hit it hard for dinner.

His Dad and I used to hang on the fence together.  One time his son hit a absolute rocket to left field, that was picked up on one hop and thrown to first base by the LEFT fielder to nip him by 5 feet.  We both kind of turned to each other and he said - that's bad.  All I could say was ...yup. 

He never made it to the big field and played guard on the Football team in HS.

fenwaysouth posted:

Regardless of age.....oldest son loved the game, always wanted to get better, and did well against competition at each level growing up.  You'll see talent come and go, but it is the kids that love what they are doing and hungry to improve that usually prevail.  I've got two sons that liked the game a lot and another that loved it.  You can tell the difference.

I am not sure if you REALLY know until you are able to look back.  But, like Fenway said, the child has a passion for the game that does not diminish.  Several of keewartson's friends have stopped playing baseball in college, and I can look back and see that the induring passion for baseball just wasn't there.   Most were terrific athletes who just found "other passions". 

As a young child, my son would mimic what he would see on TV....he loved Chipper Jones.   In elementary school, he would drop his backpack before he came inside and go to the hit-a-way to get in some swings.  He would sleep in his brand new Little League Uniform.  He would not miss games.  We would plan vacations around baseball, rather than miss All-Stars, touraments, or WWBA.  

He made the decision to not play his "other sport" in high school so he could do off season workouts.  He continued to play the other sport in rec league, however.

We did not throw money at individual showcases, but rather played on the best travel team he could that went to events that showcased him and his team.

He was realistic on where he could play in college, if he wanted to continue to be on the field.

To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it depends on what your definition of "good" is. Looking at freshman, the ones who I think are really good are, I guess, good on a national scale -- they've played on a US national team or have been an alternate for it, some have committed to PAC-12 or SEC schools as freshmen, or for pitchers they throw 85+, etc. That's my (completely subjective, largely unreasonable) standard -- and using that standard, to answer the OP, I don't know.

At that age, you really don't know. Two examples of kids that I saw play at that age.

One kid at 11 was unusually big for his age and hit bombs (parents are normal sized - dad 5'9"). So, I guessed he was an early grower and would end up average in size and come back to earth. Kid continued to grow to 6'3", still hit bombs, and got drafted out of high school.

Another kid was above average in size, but very physically mature and at 11-12 also hits bombs - superior athlete at that age. His parents are above average in height (Dad 6'1" big frame, Mom is also above average in height). So, I guessed that this kid would grow to be well over 6' and dominate. Grew to 5'8" at the most and peaked at age 13 - average high school player at best. Younger sister is an inch taller than him now - go figure.

You just never know.

RJM posted:

A player needs to choose his parents wisely. The son of two college or pro athletes is more likely to go further. Does anyone know how old Garciaparra and Hamm's kids are now? What are they doing athletically?

On the flip side a friend is 6'4". He was an All American for an SEC.  He made it to AAA. His son grew to 5'10". He didn't make varsity in high school. My friend once privately joked he polluted the family gene pool with his first wife.

Add: I looked up Garciaparra and Hamm's kids. For those who don't know Garciaparra was also a college prospect as a soccer player and football kicker. He kicked a 50 yarded in high school. They have twin 8yo girls and a 3yo boy.

As world class athletes, how do you approach sports with your kids? Do you feel any pressure to push them toward soccer or softball or baseball?

Hamm: The only thing we want them to do is be active for the health and wellness aspect that sports provides. How they do that is up to them. Right now our daughters are into whatever they’re playing because their friends are doing it. If they find out a friend is signed up for soccer or softball or something, they want to do it. That makes it easy.

All we ask is that if they do join a team they complete the season, show their coach and teammates respect, and try their best.

Sports were a passion for Nomar and me. We know what that passion looks and feels like and if we see it in our children, great. If not, we’re sure they’ll find something else that they’re passionate about. We have one daughter who’s very artistic, and I worry about how I’m going to help her nurture that. Art isn’t in my background.

Garciaparra: I love that our kids play everything right now. Whatever season they’re in is their favorite. Last fall it was soccer. Now it’s softball. It’s perfect. The kids are at that age where they should be trying new things all the time.

The one thing I won’t do is ask them to play with me. Whether it’s catch with a softball or kicking a soccer ball around, I wait for them to ask me. I want them to want to do it, not feel like they have to play sports with daddy because he asked. But man, when they do, we have the greatest time.

- See more at: http://magazine.inspirato.com/...sthash.ccgC9Bbn.dpuf

On the topic of choosing parents wisely, Andre Agassi's and Steffi Graf's son plays baseball. He's a 2020 who has hit 81 mph (per PG profile). 

You don't know anything until they actually move to the next level.

Regarding the last two posts...

1) The Agassi kid can swing it too. 

2) I think for the most part you can start to figure out what you have at 14. I said for the most part because you have some 14 year-olds playing in a 17 year-old body and some who don't have any real muscle development yet and are still growing. But, separation is starting to happen from what I am seeing. 

SultanofSwat posted:

You don't know anything until they actually move to the next level.

I think Sultan makes a very important point.  We might be able to tell some things from a physical perspective in terms of the "present." As we know, PG, Headfirst, the Stanford Camp, and others, have  important businesses in doing that and making projections into the future.

However, each step up creates a mental change and challenge, with none being more formidable than from a HS senior to a college freshman, for so many who have the tools. Also, as our sons progress as players, what they can do often is not as important as what others view they "cannot do."

I  could be wrong on the percentages but it would not surprise me if the mental make up is not the part which separates at least 50%, if not more, of the players once they get above HS.

Consultant likes to refer to it as the 6th tool, the one which is the toughest to recognize and "measure." It is so often true that you don't know anything until they fail and we get to see how they manage failure. College baseball certainly creates plenty of opportunities for failure. Unfortunately,  plenty of players contribute to those opportunities when they get on a college campus.

Beau Burrows, who was drafted out of high school 22nd over all in the 2015 draft, was drawing crowds when he took the mound at age 10.

Perfect Game had him at the highest velocity in the nation amongst high schoolers when he was a Junior. (96)

But even he gained 14mph from 15 to 17. He was sitting 82 as an incoming freshman.

Everyone that saw him when he was younger would have told you he was one that would be great, but if he doesn't make those jumps after maturing he would have been an ordinary 82mph high school pitcher.

So, I think you can see it at a young age but there is still lot that can happen along the way.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Pla...ofile.aspx?ID=292349

How about for non-pitchers.  I would think pitchers would be fairly easy to recognize, but what about hitters?

I think it may be a little tricky for hitters.  First off, the level of pitching the kid regularly faces should have a lot to do with whether there is real potential (i.e. mashing off really good pitchers) or whether a kid is simply much better than the pitching he is facing.  Once you determine that good pitching is in the equation, I think a kid who has a solid swing, repeats his swing, regularly hits the ball hard, hits to left, center and right and can at least partially discuss his current swing mechanics versus his ideal (when it's good and when it's bad), then you are off to a good start.  What sets a kid apart from a pure hitting perspective is probably impossible for 99.9% of folks to see - getting noticed for just hitting (apart from maybe regularly clearing the outfield fence) is probably tough.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

I think it may be a little tricky for hitters.  First off, the level of pitching the kid regularly faces should have a lot to do with whether there is real potential (i.e. mashing off really good pitchers) or whether a kid is simply much better than the pitching he is facing.  Once you determine that good pitching is in the equation, I think a kid who has a solid swing, repeats his swing, regularly hits the ball hard, hits to left, center and right and can at least partially discuss his current swing mechanics versus his ideal (when it's good and when it's bad), then you are off to a good start.  What sets a kid apart from a pure hitting perspective is probably impossible for 99.9% of folks to see - getting noticed for just hitting (apart from maybe regularly clearing the outfield fence) is probably tough.

Okay, let's say we remove pitchers.  How many of the five tools does a player HAVE to have in order to play at a decent high school?  College?  MiLB? MLB?  Teaching Elder I'll save you the time by stating in this hypothetical that "they all have the 6th tool".

Some of my old scout buddies say it takes at least 2 above average tools to play in the Big Leagues.  Of course much depends on which 2 tools.

I'm not sure "tools" is the right word to use with 12u kids.  However the natural ability is noticeable and the ease in how they do certainly things is very noticeable.  It is a good indicator that they might develop the tools.

And to be clear there are a ton of HS and even college players with no average tools.  You can be a very good player without any standout tools.  You just can't be a good prospect without any.

PGStaff posted:

Some of my old scout buddies say it takes at least 2 above average tools to play in the Big Leagues.  Of course much depends on which 2 tools.

I'm not sure "tools" is the right word to use with 12u kids.  However the natural ability is noticeable and the ease in how they do certainly things is very noticeable.  It is a good indicator that they might develop the tools.

And to be clear there are a ton of HS and even college players with no average tools.  You can be a very good player without any standout tools.  You just can't be a good prospect without any.

+1

1+ a maybe for one more; 2 for MLB; 1 above average tool for the higher level colleges plus academics.  

My two cents. When a young player:

• Is an obvious game changer (against the best)
• Has more than one Plus tool
• Has an off-the-charts 6th tool

He may be special.

But you'll only know for sure when real baseball people tell you he is.

I'm going to pee on the parade a little. The original poster is the dad of a young player. Now that the thread has developed I see other pre college posters asking "What about this? What about that?

For the been there, done it crowd it's really easy to look back. But in those moments all we were seeing is passion for the game and potential. There's no way of knowing the passion will continue. There's no way of knowing the potential will develop. There's so many distractions that can derail the train.

The reality is you will know your son is a good college prospect when travel teams come looking for him. You will know he's a college player when he sticks, gets on the field and produces. You will know he's a legit pro prospect if he's drafted in the top twenty rounds.

94% of American MLBers were drafted in the first twenty rounds. 84% were drafted in the top ten rounds. Being drafted later means the player is seen most likely as single A roster filler.

Before anyone gets upset with the last statement there are late bloomers and scouts do make mistakes. But to quote a friend on why his .290 (following .330 in AA) hitting son wasn't called up and a .240 hitter was ... "I'll give you 700,000 reasons why he wasn't called up."

The one called up was a second round pick. His son was selected in the thirty-eighth round.

The only approach is never stop trying to get better. Even if a kid gets to college ball they recruit 10-15 potential replacements each year. In pro ball they draft 40 potential replacements.

I saw a kid go from freshman starter, to soph platoon player, to junior bench player, to cut senior year. Don't waste time looking back. Someone is gaining on you. Push forward.

RJM posted:

I'm going to pee on the parade a little. The original poster is the dad of a young player. Now that the thread has developed I see other pre college posters asking "What about this? What about that?

For the been there, done it crowd it's really easy to look back. But in those moments all we were seeing is passion for the game and potential. There's no way of knowing the passion will continue. There's no way of knowing the potential will develop. There's so many distractions that can derail the train.

2018 is studying abroad this year in Europe.  Wants to play in college (baseball or hoops).  Figured HS would be his only opportunity to do a year abroad, much less a semester, if he were lucky enough to play ball in college, so he has been gone since last August returning June 1st.  

Will be very curious to see where the heck he is at, baseball wise.  He's been playing a lot of hoops over there with club teams.  In baseball he aspires to be a pitcher, so he has been throwing a lot of bullpens and long tossing against fences in parks with only soccer fields and small dogs to be seen. 

And yes, there are "distractions."  Many of them, the 16-year old drinking age being one.  Will be very interesting to see what he looks like come June 1.  We will see just how badly HE wants to play at next level.  After all, it's not about "How do WE know?"  Gotta be about THEM knowing.  If his baseball skills survive and even develop after a year in Europe due to his sticking to it, and getting beyond any perceived distractions?  Then I think it's safe to say, "He will know."

hshuler posted:

Regarding the last two posts...

1) The Agassi kid can swing it too. 

2) I think for the most part you can start to figure out what you have at 14. I said for the most part because you have some 14 year-olds playing in a 17 year-old body and some who don't have any real muscle development yet and are still growing. But, separation is starting to happen from what I am seeing. 

His parents could hit a ball pretty well too. can't have better genes than that. still of course that is no guarantee.

So the reason I ask, not so much now as to being able to identify later if he even chooses to continue with the sport.  I am a pretty realistic person, but some of the things he has done have even made me (inwardly) go wow.  When I say next level, that, I suppose, could mean anything, maybe even a standout in HS.  Speaking of which.  We happen to catch part of a jv game the other day.  To say I was unimpressed would be an understatement.  If my 10 soon to be 11 year old (in a couple of weeks) made some of those errors I would be disappointed.  The hitting and pitching weren't much to talk about either.  Is that typical?  There were dropped balls, missed grounders, close throws to first that were off target and in the dirt.  

I think a lot depends on your goals.  Since most of the talk here is about getting to college level let's say your goal is to play D1 or a really good school at another level.  To keep numbers simple let's say there are 3500 spots open for freshmen every year.  The average size state (sort of like mine) has about 2% of the nations population.  So 2% of 3500 is 70.  All things being equal 70 kids from my state will earn that honor.  But now we have to consider some of those will go on football rides or basketball or something else.  Some will opt for the major university lifestyle even though they can't play there.  Some will get drafted and sign.  Some won't have the grades etc.  then you have to judge where your state falls on the continuum. So let's just say my state is a below average baseball state. But when we consider all the reasons some may opt not to play it brings us back to average.  70 spots.  So my kid has to be one of the top 70 players in the state and STAY there (or get better of course). I can't help it I am a numbers guy all the way.  It's the only way I can make sense of it all.  When he does showcase - if he does - he will get a state ranking from a neutral source.  I guess that's when we will get an idea. Til then we can try our best to be objective and make a guess.