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howdybaseball posted:

Do college coaches look at projectability? Would a 16 year old sitting at 86 get looked at the same way as a 17 year old sitting at 88?

There are other factors. Size, body frame and year to year progression would be among them. The 16yo might have peaked pitching wise while the 17yo is just getting started.

This topic really gets beat to death here.  Those trying to give players and parents a reality check share that a certain high level of velo is necessary to get serious interest/$$$ with top programs.  Others (often, those with kids who don't throw quite as hard) throw out examples of guys throwing below that threshold and "doing just fine" with Big School U.

It's pretty simple.  Velo is very desirable (we have also spent countless discussions explaining why).  College coaches look for guys with either current velo or projected velo.  That gets you the most interest and the most $$.  Once you get on the field, lots of things can happen.  Velo is successful.  Projected velo is reached and is successful.  Velo is good but the other guy that didn't get the $$ is getting more outs.  PC's find that you are more effective throwing 2-seam at a cruising speed instead of max effort 4-seam.  Velo is good but too straight, can't seem to adjust and create movement.  Velo arm gets fatigued but this is still the most effective P to roll out.  On and on.  So, many of these college guys throwing 84-87 were either guys with better velo or projected better velo when recruited.

If your velo or projected velo doesn't stand out among a very large pool of very good pitchers out there, you will not get an offer that stands out from a top school.  Of course, there are some exceptions but it would be foolish to latch on to those and set "recruiting interest" expectations from them.

I think, the main reason that 90 is a magic number is that, categorically speaking, the pool in the upper 80's is just so much larger than the pool in the low 90's.  Simple as that.

 

Around_The_Horn posted:

YoungGun mentioned Jupiter and the number of pitchers there throwing 90+.  Here are the exact numbers:

Number of Pitchers:  926

Number of Pitchers Throwing 90+: 197 (21%)

Number of RHP Throwing 90+: 177 (25% of RHP)

Number of LHP Throwing 90+: 20 (9% of RHP) Special note - 15 of the 20 are exactly at 90.

As of a month after Jupiter (Data only for 2017 Pitchers):

Percentage of RHP throwing 90+ committed:  84%

Percentage of LHP throwing 90+ committed:  93% Only 1 had not committed

Velocity of RHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 88 MPR

Velocity of LHP in which at least 50% of Pitchers were committed: 85 MPR

I hope that this is helpful.

Very helpful, correlates perfectly with what my eyes tell me. If you took those 197 players and gave each of the 300 D1 program 1, there would still be 33% +/- schools without a 90+ kid.  As we know SEC schools like to stockpile these guys, so even fewer to go around for the other D1 programs.

Thats why when I watch BTN or the Big12 or PAC 12 baseball I will most likely see 2 kids sitting mid 80s. Makes perfect sense.

younggun posted:

I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

 

Are you you talking about teams or individual staffs?  There is no way it gets to 16 before you see a 90+ arm as a starter. It may be that deep before you see 50% of the entire staff at 90%. But I guarantee you that almost every team that makes the tournament has at least 1 guy that is 90+. Im not trying to be argumentative and I have nothing to backup my assertion other than what I've seen with my own eyes. Every SEC team we have faced has had multiple 90+ arms. Most of the midweek teams have flashed a 90+ guy. Maybe you are talking about a different level. I have not watched anything other than D1 baseball. But unless the stadium scoreboards are off or ESPN is off, most all D1 (at least here in the south) schools have at minimum one 90+ arm. Just my observations. 

I can't speak for noname but the way I read that was 50% of all pitchers in all games.  Not 50% of teams will have at least one guy who throws 90. It would be good for him to come back and clear that up!

FWP posted:
younggun posted:

I'm betting it will be down to 16 before 50% are 90+.

 

Are you you talking about teams or individual staffs?  There is no way it gets to 16 before you see a 90+ arm as a starter. It may be that deep before you see 50% of the entire staff at 90%. But I guarantee you that almost every team that makes the tournament has at least 1 guy that is 90+. Im not trying to be argumentative and I have nothing to backup my assertion other than what I've seen with my own eyes. Every SEC team we have faced has had multiple 90+ arms. Most of the midweek teams have flashed a 90+ guy. Maybe you are talking about a different level. I have not watched anything other than D1 baseball. But unless the stadium scoreboards are off or ESPN is off, most all D1 (at least here in the south) schools have at minimum one 90+ arm. Just my observations. 

I can't speak for noname but the way I read that was 50% of all pitchers in all games.  Not 50% of teams will have at least one guy who throws 90. It would be good for him to come back and clear that up!

That's right 50 % of the pitchers on the teams. Both teams combined, So if we see 5 kids in a game total and 2 throw 90 that doesn't count, and it counts what is shown on TV, not PG numbers.

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