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Aparent
I understand your point, and agree. But I promese you that the College's recruter will not know the stats of that kid before he heard about him, if he is real good. If the stats are inflated or unreliables them, the player will not be recommended and he will not be noticed.

"Peace is, the respect for the other people's rights".
Benito Juarez
Coach May's input is absolutely correct, using tried and true methods that he is comfortable with, and no one here disputes the validity based upon ancedotal evidence of monitoring most human factors of a HS ball player..(gut feel).

However, statistics are a tool, like any other tool, it is only as good as the craftman's abilities to use them. A carpenter can use a hammer to build a house, but he can alos hit his thumb with it.

Applied mathematics used in computer modeling with all the factors given proper weight and ratings...based on someones input like Coach May and others who know the historical context of a player based upon situational performance, will give you the kinds of trending that produces an analysis that could be very helpful in establishing probabilities...more likely, than not...sort of answers. So statistics using the right kind of foumulas will produce results that can be helpful...not absolutely conclusive. But statistics are only as good as the individual's ability to understandd and use them.

Using a PDA and a good program, I could tell you within 80-90% probability what the next AB will result in based upon the historical trends of weather, pitcher's tendencies, batter's tendencies and factors such as stance, angle of his head to the pitcher, and many other factors that are never even considered by coaches. If hitting is based on the 70/30 paradigm, one hit in 3 AB is the goal, then a probability of 80/20 or 90/10 would in effect increase a batters average by 100 to 200 pct points...why, because a coach could use the information to call hit or take signs...and alert the batter to potential tendencies of pitch locations etc.

But you see that takes away from the randomness of the game...its selling point, anticipation. That's why I did not do the program.


for baseball coaches it is a distraction, that's the reason there is a general feeling of negativism here regarding statistics. But with education comes enlightenment and understanding. You either are improving or digressing their is no status quo.

We use to drive Model T's, now the technology is looking at hybrids and solar power. You use the tools, and you try to stay up with new methods or you fall behind...that's the history of progress.

Statistics can be used effectively with proper understanding or you go by gut feel. Either way baseball is an enjoyable pasttime, to coach, to play, and to watch.


"eye...said it"

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I would say that stats mean very little to college coaches or even less to MLB scouts.

Stats mean very little to us, yet we see them constantly. Here are a couple things to keep in mind.

We have been asked by MLB Scouting Departments for statistics of league players in our league games. It always happens regarding a player they are interested in drafting. It is the final and perhaps last piece of the puzzle. Several times they want to know how so and so hit or pitched during the season (stats). If they have seen a pitcher throw 90+ with good mechanics and good arm action, why would they not care about how he performed in a competitive league? His "stats" could be great and reassure the MLB club even more. His "stats" could be bad and cause some doubt or a need to see the pitcher again. In other words, they might check deeper thinking it's possible they missed something. As we all know, they're spending a ton of money in the early rounds. To say they just don't look at or care about "stats" at all is not exactly correct.

If you look at those pitchers selected early every year, one thing you will most always see is very good "stats". High level draft prospects tend to have excellent "stats". Whether the pitcher is Jeff Allison, Scott Kazmir, Zach Greinke, Josh Beckett or whoever, they tend to absolutely dominate high school baseball. And their "stats" will show it. So in fact, there is often a direct correlation between a players value and the stats.

Before anyone wishes to disagree, let me say this. The stats alone don't make the draft prospect, but once the player becomes a high level draft prospect the "stats" become another bit of data.

If the pitcher you're thinking about paying 3 million dollars, is losing high school games and has more walks than strikeouts and giving up lots of hits to high school hitters... Would you want to know that. You might still be very interested in drafting this player, but could it change your mind about taking him with your first pick? Well I can give many examples, even over the past couple years, where high school sure first rounders have slipped because of high school results and they show up in the "stats".

I agree that stats mean very little to recruiters and scouts. Except there are some very informative "stats" out there. Here's another example.

A high school player who is considered to be a first rounder. His scouting reports talk about his outstanding tools and his unbelievable power. Yet this high school player hit 2 home runs in a full season for his high school with a metal bat. Would you not want this information for further review of this players hitting ability? Wouldn't you wonder how this great power prospect ended up with only 2 high school home runs?

Hitting .400 or .500 means absolutely nothing and will create no interest due to "stats" and for the same reasons everyone has mentioned here. A player being drafted because of outstanding raw power and the stats showing he doesn't hit home runs. Well he might develop that power in time, but for now, something don't add up.

Bottom line...
Good stats may not get you noticed or drafted or a college scholarship, but bad stats can cause doubt and further review of that player.

If anyone has the time to check the first round from the past three years or so and look up the players final year stats before the draft, I think you will see that the top high school draft picks absolutely tear up high school competition "statistically". So there is that to consider, for what it's worth.

Other than that, I agree with those who say, stats don't mean a thing. Because most often they don't.
quote:
Originally posted by eye:


Using a PDA and a good program, I could tell you within 80-90% probability what the next AB will result in based upon the historical trends of weather, pitcher's tendencies, batter's tendencies and factors such as stance, angle of his head to the pitcher, and many other factors that are never even considered by coaches. If hitting is based on the 70/30 paradigm, one hit in 3 AB is the goal, then a probability of 80/20 or 90/10 would in effect increase a batters average by 100 to 200 pct points...why, because a coach could use the information to call hit or take signs...and alert the batter to potential tendencies of pitch locations etc.

But you see that takes away from the randomness of the game...its selling point, anticipation. That's why I did not do the program.




eye - just having fun here but:

Huh?

You can predict - with 80-90% accuracy - the outcome of each at-bat in a baseball game?

If you can do that - you should be in Las Vegas getting rich very quickly - or doing the Karnak thing on the Jay Leno show.

Wink
Stats were necesaary only because the local papers wanted them and they were needed for all league selection. I never posted them because the only stat that meant anything to us as a team was Won and lost. amd if we were doing what we were supposed to do it would show up. Being with the kids everyday at practice and watching them perform I knew who was doing well and who was not. Who could do what and when they can do it. I did not have to look at stats to figure that out. Was I a baseball genius? No not really. Just watched what was going on.
quote:
Originally posted by itsinthegame:
quote:
Originally posted by eye:


Using a PDA and a good program, I could tell you within 80-90% probability what the next AB will result in based upon the historical trends of weather, pitcher's tendencies, batter's tendencies and factors such as stance, angle of his head to the pitcher, and many other factors that are never even considered by coaches. If hitting is based on the 70/30 paradigm, one hit in 3 AB is the goal, then a probability of 80/20 or 90/10 would in effect increase a batters average by 100 to 200 pct points...why, because a coach could use the information to call hit or take signs...and alert the batter to potential tendencies of pitch locations etc.

But you see that takes away from the randomness of the game...its selling point, anticipation. That's why I did not do the program.




eye - just having fun here but:

Huh?

You can predict - with 80-90% accuracy - the outcome of each at-bat in a baseball game?

If you can do that - you should be in Las Vegas getting rich very quickly - or doing the Karnak thing on the Jay Leno show.

Wink


________________________________________________

Consider the EA Sports Video Baseball Game and you can see how variables can be used to produce randomness.

If that is true and it is, then variables can be used to calculate probabilities (null randomness).

We did that program years ago on a super computer with pretty good accuracy.

Not of any use to anyone since at that point you would have needed and auditoruim just to store the hardware. But supercomputers come in chips now and run PDA's. It's just a matter of money and computer talent.

The question is would anyone want the thing...from the reaction here I would say no. Therefore you would never recover your R&D cost. You don't start projects like that unless you can sell millions of them.

"eye...said it"
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quote:
Originally posted by itsinthegame:
LOL

Ignorant - a ditz - etc...

I thought it would be much worse. You have been too kind.

Try Strat-o-matic - its a great game thats been around for a long time - and you dont need 4 godzillion megabytes to participate.

Just very very weird stuff IMO.

________________________________________________

Gees, itsinthegame, I don't know what you're talking about???

"eye...said it"
Will, I hear what you say. I can see you working.

quote:
Being with the kids everyday at practice and watching them perform I knew who was doing well and who was not. Who could do what and when they can do it. I did not have to look at stats to figure that out. Was I a baseball genius? No not really. Just watched what was going on.

I just wanted to point out that stats sometimes will tell you what the naked eye will not. Example: maybe a leadoff hitter doesn't get on base at the beginning of games. You run your stats and figure out that when a runner is on ahead of him his ba is 100 point higher. Maybe you move him to the 2 spot. Do you really notice who has the better average with runners in scoring position and less than 2 outs. Maybe your 3 hole guy has more more rbis in that situation., but the 6 hole guy has less opportunities, but a much higher efficiency with runners in scoring position, just less chances. I don't believe that you can see these things with the naked eye. JMO Of course this is coming from a guy who cannot tell the socuts how many k's his kid has cause I dont keep track.

PG, I agree that stats are important for pitchers who absolutely dominate in good conferences. It helps the scouts justify their position on the player/

the Florida Bombers
"I love the HSBBW"
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I'd like to see us talk about stats that DO matter. We can use what I call the "numbers behind the numbers" to HELP our players get better.

For example, knowing a batting average is one thing, but there are numbers that LEAD TO batting average, such as chase %, well-hit%, and how well he handles pitches in each zone (in, middle, away). These numbers can help us coach him better.

Other stats for hitters that help in this regard are well-hit of off-speed pitches, well-hit of out-of-zone pitches, and well-hit vs. LHP, RHP.
More thoughts regarding statistics.

At certain levels stats can be extremely valuable. Especially if the tracking process is reliable. I have always been a big believer in the more info, the better.

Many top college programs use stats to gain advantages. Not in recruiting, but winning! Not so much the standard Batting Ave, ERA, etc., but more to learn more about what their players are doing and more importantly to pick up trends and knowledge about the opposition. The pitching info others have brought up here is being used more and more. There is no way a coach can compile all this info in his head. I believe the Stanford coaches designed the program.

Advance Scouts covering MLB games are looking for trends, strengths and weaknesses in future opponents. The “normal” stats don’t show certain things like a hitter who always hits off speed pitches to the opposite field. More complete stats and scouting charts would show this. Then the team has gained some valuable info that can help them win.

Knowing these never mentioned stats on opposing pitchers can be extra beneficial to hitters and for coaching decisions.

Back to the original discussion: Stats like batting ave. in high school and lower don’t mean much for getting drafted or recruited. They could create interest, but the players ability, makeup and projection are the most important things. There are more players with “super stats” than there are “super prospects”!

To the game itself, stats can be very important. The more data you have about the opposition and your own players can be the difference between success and failure.

I think it is important to know everything possible about your own players… For example coaches should know the steal times of their runners. Then after timing the opposing pitcher to the plate and catchers pop times… you have some valuable data that helps in decision making.

John Wylde long time Wareham Gatemen official (Cape Cod League) produces a great big book of statistics on Wareham players. It’s amazing the things a person can learn about these players once we get past all the normal statistics and look at not so obvious stuff. Even the player himself can utilize this data.

Lastly: While all those who have good high school stats are not necessarily top college or draft prospects…. Most all the top college and draft prospects have excellent high school stats. There are some exceptions of course.
.

This amazes me.....Six pages of post and no one ever differentiated between stats. Confused

Yes, most college and professional coaches do not put much stock in high school statistics, simply because the competition is not consistent and the scorekeeping suspect.

On the other hand recruiters are not stupid. wouldn't some statistics carry more weight than others? There are stats that can be easily and regularly manipulated (hits, errors,...) and those that are more more solid. (HR's, KO's....)

While a 15 Home run season, or 2K's an inning as a pitcher won't get you a scholarship alone I'd be willing to bet it will get you more of a look than a .400 BA. or a 1.5 ERA.


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Last edited by observer44
.

TRhit..

Completely Agreed. The level of competition would certainly be a consideration...

...but I guess my point would be how many high school players, REGARDLESS of competitive level are able to get 15 balls out of a ballpark in say 30 games, at the high school level? With creative pencil and agenda I can get a player a player another 150 points on his avg. (heck, I've seen it done...) But it seems to me that it would be harder to get him an extra 10 HR's.


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Last edited by observer44
I guess I'm going in a different direction that some of you here. I'm not at all concerned about basic stats (like batting avg.)
I think those of us who are coaching should all be open to the idea of using numbers behind the numbers to make us BETTER COACHES.

We don't use a stat program. We use a coaching/scouting program. I want our hitters to know their weaknesses so we can work on them. So many players (and coaches) focus on mechanics. Our job is more than teaching a great swing. Hitting is more about timing and good habits. That means things like:

* reducing chases on bad pitches
* knowing your strong and weak areas of the zone
* handling offspeed pitches & fastballs equally well
* focusing on what matters most: which is NOT BATTING AVG. My opinion - hitting the ball hard and reaching base are the 2 goals of hitting. That's why we keep track of well-hit avg., take %, chase %, and several other areas that are "habit revealing".
Here is my personal take on Stats at the HS level.
I keep stats at my sons games using a palm pilot and stat software on my home computer. I do it for my son's and my own personal use, with 2 primary purposes. 1- To track pitching stats as well as batting stats in an effort to develop trends and look for areas for improvement. 2. So that when asked by future college coaches my son would be able to give some of his stats, and therefore show that he is interested in his performance and aware of his game and has some degree of dedication to his sport. This actually happened at a camp this summer. The head coach of a major Div I school was watchig my son pitch. When he was done the coach called my son aside and complimented him on his pitching, and asked him a few questions one of which was how many innings did he throw in HS. My son was able to answer this question. What impression would the coach have had of my son if he said "I don't know" It didn't have to be the exact number but at least my son had an idea since I kept his stats.
I agree that focusing on stats too much can be harmfull, but when used properly and kept in perspective I feel that they can be very helpfull.
When I first started keeping stats I felt like the "computer Geek" dad in the stands with my hand held computer. But, most people found it to be very interesting and I am constantly asked what inning we are in? how many pitches has he thrown? what did this kid do the last time up? whats the score etc etc.
I may not keep the most accurate stats since some of them like errors are subjective. But, for me keeping stats has been an enjoyable as well as helpfull experience. Even if the numbers aren't 100% we still have a realativily close idea of how my son is doing. I just try to keep it low key and tell my son not to focus on them or worry about them. But they do come in handy to evaluate his progress.
Last edited by PA22DAD

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