Harper is not a top 10 player in the game right now & is looking for close to half a billion $$ guaranteed. This is the problem.

Is the Nationals deal still on the table for Harper? Somehow, I see this possibly going the same way that Yoenis Cespedes situation with the Mets. Nothing else was out there, back with the Mets.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

K9 posted:

Wow...all this talk had me actually dig into these guys numbers.  In the last 5 seasons Harper has had 3 seasons of less than 1.5 WAR.  Machado's WAR has decreased for 4 straight seasons.  They both had monster years at age 22, but I sure don't want to commit to either guy for 10 years at a record breaking deal.

I don't think the teams who are willing to pay Harper are weighting WAR as high as the more offensive stats. Two of those three years at <=1.5 were impacted by injury (that's a different concern), and the other was hurt by playing 1/3 of his innings in CF (where he doesn't belong). Teams want Harper mostly for his offense, and also his star power.

Machado's WAR was his highest ever in 2018 (6.6 on Baseball-Reference), it was just split between two teams.

I think much of the frenzy is due to their ages. Teams don't often get an opportunity to lock up a young star long-term.

Additionally....

1.  Star power is not factored into WAR.  Star power is putting butts in seats.   Clearly interested front offices are weighting WAR heavier than star power in both cases to date.

2. The frenzy was initiated by their agents two years ago.  You couldn't escape the media hype.  It was ridiculous in the Wash DC market.  Neither had a stellar 2017 or 2018, so their out of this world pricing demands went over like a fart in church.  Front offices aren't biting, and being smart about their money.

3.  Apparently the market has spoken and is passing on this opportunity to lock up young, overhyped stars long term.

If this was my money, I'd be doing the same thing.  It has to be about value and performance.   Both these guys are getting bad advice from their camps and not recognizing what is going on (their real value) in the real business world.  

As always, JMO.

Agent receiving 4% of the Gross is an additional problem.

It's really the agents contact in $$'s the term has no impact for the agent, until it expires.

Pay Da Man, Or NOT

Instead of blaming the owners/GM for colluding, what the agents and players should really do is blame the countless number of players who went before them who got 7-10 year contracts and then clearly made the case that not only do they do not work, they can cripple a franchise for years. 

Look around the league now.  Guys like Pujols, Miggy, Chris Davis, and recently Hosmer have long-term deals that are essentially making it impossible for their teams to compete for the free agents who are on the market.  As an Angels fan, it kills me to see a guy like Trout wasted because Arte Moreno was an absolute idiot and signed Pujols, Josh Hamilton and CJ Wilson to long-term deals that were total busts. 

The $87 million the Angels still owe Pujols over the next three years could have been better spent on a pitcher like Keuchel or a catcher/closer combo.  Instead the Angels, who already have a $166 million payroll are shopping in the bargain bin.  This situation plays out in lots of places where there are dead contracts that cannot be moved (or like Seattle require you to give up the best closer in the league and pay some money as well to move Cano).  Yet teams with much lesser payrolls like the Rays and A's have shown you can compete just as well without the mega contracts.

There are too many guys still on rosters now who are poster children for why GMs/owners needed to wake up.  Cubs fans know they are not in on Harper or Machado thanks to the Heyward and Darvish contracts.  Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up.

Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla and Brett Saberhagen.  Bonilla will still be on the payroll when he is 72 

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

cabbagedad posted:

Mets are still paying Bobby Bonilla and Brett Saberhagen.  Bonilla will still be on the payroll when he is 72 

Its a good deal if you can get it!! Staggering actually but he did give back money at the time to extend the life and help them out. I have much less problem with a negotiated plan like this where both sides were aware of what they were doing.

Claiming collusion is just silly when you have overpriced yourself based on what you deem the market should be. I don't even blame them for trying and if they accomplish it - well congrats to you, that is what the market will except. They argument of the owners should pay more solely because they can doesn't work.

Most successful businesses could pay more then they do...

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

It does help get guys to stop holding out when an owner (Phillies) says he’s willing to spend stupidly.

Dombrowski says he isn’t interested in Kimbrel. But it’s a game. The word is the Sox are willing to sign him for one or two years. Kimbrel wants long term for 100M. It’s not lost on GM’s he was a scary closer and lost velocity in 2018. You don’t sign a 30yo closer who is losing velocity to a long term contract. 

I see a lot of people here either ignore or fundamentally misunderstand the facts. 

The owners are quite content to do long-term contracts, as long as they're undervalued and retain team control with no opt-out. That is what has been on the table. Harper and Machado have never had a negotiation as MLB players and are looking to use their leverage during one of two (at most) times they will be able to use it. 10/300 is laughable for Harper without an opt-out clause--he is worth more during the front half of the contract, and with the revenue trends, possibly even on the back half even with age regression. We are in an era where because of the current CBA, there are players under team control for over 14 years.

The idea that agents make more by convincing them to hold out is also laughable. Harper signing for, say, 4/140 is going to offer more opportunity for more money over the next ten seasons than the current offer. An opt-out on 10/300 has the same safety valve.

RJM posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Backstop22 posted:

Harper should be blaming Boras for getting bust deals for Ellsbury, Choo, and Hosmer as reminders why not to sign guys long-term. And so it goes. I amazed it took this long for teams to wise up. 

I'm guessing that he'll wait until his deal is done before he thinks about that. But seriously, there's a lot of talk about the owners wising up, but until those two guys sign the jury is still out on that.

It does help get guys to stop holding out when an owner (Phillies) says he’s willing to spend stupidly.

Dombrowski says he isn’t interested in Kimbrel. But it’s a game. The word is the Sox are willing to sign him for one or two years. Kimbrel wants long term for 100M. It’s not lost on GM’s he was a scary closer and lost velocity in 2018. You don’t sign a 30yo closer who is losing velocity to a long term contract. 

fair point on the willingness to hold out based on the comments. I would argue he followed up his words with an offer that is stupid.

One thing to consider, does Harper want to be in spring training for the entire time? It shouldn't / wouldn't take him 6 weeks to get ready for the season. I have to believe he is in shape and ready to go physically, or at least close. It is baseball he will get in full playing shape quickly enough if he is close. From there it is really just about his swing, timing and getting the flow going.

It is possible he isn't in a hurry for more then just trying to maximize his money. 

The term "hold out" is not really accurate. They are free agents and have chosen not to sign at this point. It may be small point but honestly in fairness to the player there is a big difference between being a true "hold out" who is either under a contract he doesn't like or not accepting of the club offer while under control of the CBA and a being a free agent choosing to wait and see what happens. 

Manny gets 10/300. Harper will get more than that.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Manny gets 10/300. Harper will get more than that.

Can't help but thinking that the Padres can acquire 2-3 really good players for that. They are not a player away. I agree with Mid Atlantic. Bryce Harper is wearing a big smile today.

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

In today’s dollars. #10 in real dollars.  If you account for MLB revenue increases, even lower. 

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

Yelich - seven years, $49.5M

Quintana - five years, $26.5M

Bumgarner - six years, $35.5M

Rizzo - seven years, $42M

Goldschmidt - five years, $32M

Sale - five years, $32.5M

Altuve - four years, $12.5M

Win some, lose some. 

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

Price is only worth the money because his post season efforts got the Red Sox a World Series win. His regular season numbers since joining the Sox and age aren’t worth a superstar contract.

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.

K9 posted:

After Machado here are the next 9 largest MLB contracts:

• Arod (NYY)
• Arod (Tex)
• Pujols
• Cano
• Price
• Fielder
• Scherzer
• Grienke
• Haywood

If we could go back in time and provide perfect knowledge to the parties, my guess is that only the Arod Yankees deal and the Scherzer deal would definitely get done again.  The jury is still out on Price, though trending up.  Haywood a disaster.  

Joe Mauer 2011-2018... 8yr/184M

Coach Koz posted:

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.

Agents tell their players getting the most is best for everyone. And others took the most in the past to get you where you are. Ego is part of it too. But someone new will always top the highest paid guy. It makes me respect Gwynn and Puckett for staying in their small market town for less. Pedroia took a hometown discount because he likes playing in Boston. When asked about being lowballed he responded, “I make enough.”

MidAtlanticDad 

Yelich - seven years, $49.5M

Quintana - five years, $26.5M

Bumgarner - six years, $35.5M

Rizzo - seven years, $42M

Goldschmidt - five years, $32M

Sale - five years, $32.5M

Altuve - four years, $12.5M

Win some, lose some. 

So how can Machado be worth almost as much as 5 years of sale or Goldschmidt in just 1 year? Someone explain that to me for a guy who just completed his 4 best years in his prime and hit .282 for his career to date? Or even worse, that’s like 10 years of Altuve in a year!

2019Lefty21 posted:

So how can Machado be worth almost as much as 5 years of sale or Goldschmidt in just 1 year? Someone explain that to me for a guy who just completed his 4 best years in his prime and hit .282 for his career to date? Or even worse, that’s like 10 years of Altuve in a year!

Pretty simple. Under the current CBA, most players are underpaid in the first 6 years (before free agency), and many are overpaid once they reach FA. Teams have a finite payroll. They portion it out based on the rules of that system, with the goal of putting the best team on the field.

Ripken Fan posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

Manny gets 10/300. Harper will get more than that.

Can't help but thinking that the Padres can acquire 2-3 really good players for that. They are not a player away. I agree with Mid Atlantic. Bryce Harper is wearing a big smile today.

They have their entire position-player roster locked up for at least four more years with this deal and several have room to develop. It's a risk, but they very well may have only been a player away--and if so, they created a core for the near future.

MidAtlanticDad posted:

2019Lefty21 posted:

So how can Machado be worth almost as much as 5 years of sale or Goldschmidt in just 1 year? Someone explain that to me for a guy who just completed his 4 best years in his prime and hit .282 for his career to date? Or even worse, that’s like 10 years of Altuve in a year!

Pretty simple. Under the current CBA, most players are underpaid in the first 6 years (before free agency), and many are overpaid once they reach FA. Teams have a finite payroll. They portion it out based on the rules of that system, with the goal of putting the best team on the field.

I get it but I don’t think any player in baseball is worth a guaranteed $30,000,000 a year from ages 27-37. I guess the market will show what it can handle but to me when you look at the comparison to Altuve money and stat wise it is just crazy. It’s not like Manny is a stellar teammate or member of the community either is he? I guess I’m still stuck in 1982 when the Mets stole George Foster away from the Reds for 5 year $10,000,000 contract!lol

MidAtlanticDad posted:

 

...

Win some, lose some. 

Agreed...but you tend to lose the huge ones and have a fighting chance with the smaller / shorter ones

All teams understand the risk of 10 yr deals, thus the late signing. SD has a great farm system with lots of talent to come up. Having 2 big names to achor the line up for several years (and hopefully at the current production level) was a calculated business decision. I think the 5 year opt out clause may he useless with new CBA.

Unless Machado becomes addicted to midnight runs to Roberto’s he will be sick of losing in five years. Another risk of signing Machado is a guy with his attitude is a risk of becoming a dugout and locker room cancer for young players.

”You don’t have to hustle. You’re getting paid.”

Anything beyond five years is a huge risk, especially pitchers. Maybe go seven years for young players like Machado and Harper. But ten years is insane. 

One number that is amazing is Jon Lester hasn’t missed a start in eleven years since recovering from recovering from Hodkins lymphoma. The only negative is at 33 and 34 he’s not going as far into games. This should be a flag for any team signing 30+ pitchers. 

The Red Sox really blew it. They wouldn’t give Lester 5/125M. It cost them 7/210M to find a lesser replacement. 

RJM posted:

Coach Koz posted:

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.

Agents tell their players getting the most is best for everyone. And others took the most in the past to get you where you are. Ego is part of it too. But someone new will always top the highest paid guy. It makes me respect Gwynn and Puckett for staying in their small market town for less. Pedroia took a hometown discount because he likes playing in Boston. When asked about being lowballed he responded, “I make enough.”

Did Tony Gwynn really stay in SD for less? I ask, because I saw a Tweet today that said when Tony Gwynn went from $1 mil. to $4 mil., he was the 3rd highest player in the game.

RJM posted:

Coach Koz posted:

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.

Agents tell their players getting the most is best for everyone. And others took the most in the past to get you where you are. Ego is part of it too. But someone new will always top the highest paid guy. It makes me respect Gwynn and Puckett for staying in their small market town for less. Pedroia took a hometown discount because he likes playing in Boston. When asked about being lowballed he responded, “I make enough.”

Sometimes it backfires on agent's advice.  Brewers just signed Mike Moustakas for  $10 mil for 1 year.  It was reported he was offered  $17 mil by another club, but he turned it down.  He wanted a long term deal.  The roll of the dice costed him $7 mil.

Trust In Him posted:

Sometimes it backfires on agent's advice.  Brewers just signed Mike Moustakas for  $10 mil for 1 year.  It was reported he was offered  $17 mil by another club, but he turned it down.  He wanted a long term deal.  The roll of the dice costed him $7 mil.

He lost that money last year (more than $7M, actually). He rejected the Royals' qualifying offer of $17.4M after the 2017 season. They only ended up paying him $8.7M with incentives. So that decision cost him a nice round 50% of his 2018 salary.

Trust In Him posted:

RJM posted:

Coach Koz posted:

RJM posted:

Machado just joined the “I don’t care about winning. I only care about money” club. The charter member is Eric Hosmer. Enjoy the weather and losing Manny.

The money is so big for top demand players now I don’t understand not taking a little less and playing where you can win. Maybe Machado is more interested in surfing and money than baseball. 

 

I've thought the same thing, but I think that ego gets in the way. A lot of these guys have been coddled for a long time. And then there are the agents. I'd bet more than one agent has spent a lot of time talking a player out of a lesser deal even though the player prefers another organization or city.

Agents tell their players getting the most is best for everyone. And others took the most in the past to get you where you are. Ego is part of it too. But someone new will always top the highest paid guy. It makes me respect Gwynn and Puckett for staying in their small market town for less. Pedroia took a hometown discount because he likes playing in Boston. When asked about being lowballed he responded, “I make enough.”

Sometimes it backfires on agent's advice.  Brewers just signed Mike Moustakas for  $10 mil for 1 year.  It was reported he was offered  $17 mil by another club, but he turned it down.  He wanted a long term deal.  The roll of the dice costed him $7 mil.

It backfired on Moustakas in this particular megotiation. But he’s making 10 mil because predecessors drove up the market.

I liken Machado's signing with San Diego at this stage of their rebuild to when Jayson Werth left the Phillies and signed with the Nationals.  People thought it was all about money, but the guy was willing to evaluate the talent in the pipeline and gamble that the Nats were going to be really good soon.  He was right, and the Phillies were on their way down shortly thereafter.

It's debatable which team will be better sooner between the White Sox and Padres.  But both are loaded with plenty of top prospects who could make them winners and playoff caliber in a few years (both need young pitchers to step up).  True the White Sox are in a much easier division, at least as of now with almost every team rebuilding.  But maybe they all get good at the same time.  San Diego will always struggle to stay up with the Dodgers and their huge revenues, but Arizona is just now starting a teardown and the Giants need to do likewise very soon.  If the Rockies lose Arrenado (likely now that he will be also looking for 10/$300 million), then the Padres could be the top contender to the Dodgers for most of Machado's contract. 

Add to it the no brainer choice on weather and the Sox perpetual second-fiddle status to the Cubs, Machado's decision makes a lot of sense. 

The White Sox may be second fiddle in Chicago. But does San Diego even have a fiddle?

RJM posted:

The White Sox may be second fiddle in Chicago. But does San Diego even have a fiddle?

White Sox are the 5th most popular team in Chicago right now and the Padres have no competition in town.

Anyone here (except for White Sox fans) who would play for the Sox over the Padres?

Most players do what’s best for their families and although Chicago is an awesome city, it’s also cold as heck in March and sometimes April and we won’t talk about the winters.

The Sox won 62 games last year and the Padres won 66. The Padres also have the number one farm system. 

Most think that he will never win with Padres but there are no guarantees that he’d win with the Sox either. 

I’m happy for anyone who can get $300M to play baseball and wish him the best. 

19coach posted:

RJM posted:

The White Sox may be second fiddle in Chicago. But does San Diego even have a fiddle?

White Sox are the 5th most popular team in Chicago right now and the Padres have no competition in town.

I’ll stick with, “Does San Diego even have a fiddle?” But I still think San Diego got the short end of the stick on this one. 

2019Lefty21 posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

2019Lefty21 posted:

So how can Machado be worth almost as much as 5 years of sale or Goldschmidt in just 1 year? Someone explain that to me for a guy who just completed his 4 best years in his prime and hit .282 for his career to date? Or even worse, that’s like 10 years of Altuve in a year!

Pretty simple. Under the current CBA, most players are underpaid in the first 6 years (before free agency), and many are overpaid once they reach FA. Teams have a finite payroll. They portion it out based on the rules of that system, with the goal of putting the best team on the field.

I get it but I don’t think any player in baseball is worth a guaranteed $30,000,000 a year from ages 27-37. I guess the market will show what it can handle but to me when you look at the comparison to Altuve money and stat wise it is just crazy. It’s not like Manny is a stellar teammate or member of the community either is he? I guess I’m still stuck in 1982 when the Mets stole George Foster away from the Reds for 5 year $10,000,000 contract!lol

Foster is actually the answer to one of my favorite trivia questions....who was the Opening Day Left fielder for the 1986 NY Mets.  FWIW I always thought he was an island of professionalism, respectability and class while Cashen put together a really good team.  

As for Machado he has been a great defensive player who has shown increasing power.  That is almost sure to be trimmed significantly playing 81 games in that cavern in SD vs Camden Yards.  He may never hit 30 HR in a season over the life of the contract.  If SD gets .285 25 HR and 90+ RBI with 145 games played at a Gold glove level for about 6 or 7 years it won't be a terrible deal.  But I can see at 31 or 32 he drops off and the defense fades as injuries start to happen so he plays 100 games a year a couple of times on the back end of the deal.  I think NL teams are looking into the future and see the DH coming soon.  If he becomes a DH after 5 years at age 32 the Padres will have made a bad deal. 

Albert Pujols averaged 30 HRs and 100 RBI for ages 34 to 37 and I don't think Machado will produce anything that good at that stage of his career but if he does then the Padres made a great move stats wise.  We'll see if he can be what Foster was for the Mets which was someone to lead a franchise out of the wilderness to become a competitive playoff caliber team.

I hated the hosmer deal but like the machado deal. It is a risk but consider he is still young. Fangraphs said using an average age decline curve his value actually projects more than 300m.

I don't think it is a bad move, they have a ton of prospects to back him up.